Federal Election Polls

[PIK]

yes - in countries with a knowledgeable population; one that hasn't been twisted with the lies spun by Harper Conservatives about "votes stolen and democracy denied"... it's called coalition government!

Lies spun by harper are you kidding me. Is that the best you have .

[PIK]

Harper doesn't strike me as being a good politician. He strikes me as being a lucky politician, at least until last few years. Most of his electoral success came from the Liberal Party being a disunited basket case, melting down in Quebec and shut out of Ontario. Now that the Liberals seem to have got over the post-Martin decade in the wilderness, all of a sudden the Tories find themselves in a very hard race even to form a minority government.

The Cult of Harper, the claim that Harper was some sort of political genius, some sort of super man who was able to outfox his opponents at every turn, really is just mythology; a myth that was bought lock, stock and barrel by his opponents as much as by his allies. Even his survival by proroguing Parliament in 2008 only came about because the would-be Coalition was so stunningly stupid as to announce to the whole world their intent to defeat the Government. If they had done it properly, and kept their mouths shut until the confidence motion was actually before the House, Harper would have been done right there.

Even the way Harper runs his party has caused problems. The entire reason it appears that Duffy's expenses were quietly paid and the PMO attempted to sanitize the Senate expense report was because the Tory caucus was deeply unhappy about the new MP pension changes, which appears to have eaten heavily into Harper's political capital. His top-down management style, if the rumors are to be believed, have angered back-benchers and Cabinet Ministers alike.

Same as chretien. But harper is a very smart man to win when the media does everything in its power to bring him down and of course foreign money. And if people want trudeau as leader, harper will have the last laugh. But then when trudeau runs the country into the ground he can blame harper for all his woes.

[waldo]

Lies spun by harper are you kidding me. Is that the best you have .

do you really need to be reminded of the 'dog and pony' show when Harper dispatched his cabinet members across Canada during the lead-up to a possible coalition government... it was all about lying to Canadians about the legitimacy of coalition governments within the Westminister system... it was all about telling Canadians their votes were about to be stolen... it was all about telling Canadians that democracy was about to be denied.

[ToadBrother]

Same as chretien.

Sheila Copps wrote an interesting piece in the Hill Times a month or so ago where she said that she could only recall two instances during her entire time in Cabinet when Chretien directly intervened.

But harper is a very smart man to win when the media does everything in its power to bring him down and of course foreign money.

And we're right back to the Tories' paranoia. It gets so tiring to hear partisans snivel like infants about the media. And this isn't directed just at the Tories. I remember at the height of Adscam listening to some Liberals pathetically whine about the evil right-wing media. Partisans of all stripes are all the same.

And if people want trudeau as leader, harper will have the last laugh. But then when trudeau runs the country into the ground he can blame harper for all his woes.

And more of the "OH my GOD, IF YOU DON'T VOTE FOR MY TEAM, THE WHOLE WORLD WILL DIE!!!!!"

Edited September 30, 2015 by ToadBrother

[Boges]

do you really need to be reminded of the 'dog and pony' show when Harper dispatched his cabinet members across Canada during the lead-up to a possible coalition government... it was all about lying to Canadians about the legitimacy of coalition governments within the Westminister system... it was all about telling Canadians their votes were about to be stolen... it was all about telling Canadians that democracy was about to be denied.

So Iggy backing down on the potential Coalition was all because of Harper lies. GOTCHA!!!

[waldo]

So Iggy backing down on the potential Coalition was all because of Harper lies. GOTCHA!!!

I've been missing your strawman efforts of late!

[Boges]

I've been missing your strawman efforts of late!

You mean a strawman like talking about the 2008 Coupe I MEAN! legal coalition effort in a thread about Federal Opinion polling in the 2015 election?

[ToadBrother]

So Iggy backing down on the potential Coalition was all because of Harper lies. GOTCHA!!!

Whatever IGgy's reasons, do you agree that the claims surrounding Parliament's right to decide who governs were deliberate inaccuracies?

[Boges]

Whatever IGgy's reasons, do you agree that the claims surrounding Parliament's right to decide who governs were deliberate inaccuracies?

The coalition was certainly legal. BUT!!! the election just happened and the possibility of a coalition (propped up by the Bloc mind you) was never discussed.

Had Iggy said, NOPE! we're going to take power with the NDP propped up by the Bloc, then the GG would have had to let them govern. But polling indicated they were taking a huge hit for the decision.

I'll give them credit though, the attempted coalition certainly made the CPC change course and partake in Keynsian economics.

Edited September 30, 2015 by Boges

[ToadBrother]

The coalition was certainly legal. BUT!!! the election just happened and the possibility of a coalition (propped up by the Bloc mind you) was never discussed.

Had Iggy said, NOPE! we're going to take power with the NDP propped up by the Bloc, then the GG would have had to let them govern. But polling indicated they were taking a huge hit for the decision.

I'll give them credit though, the attempted coalition certainly made the CPC change course and partake in Keynsian economics.

So just to make it clear. Claims by the Tories that the erstwhile Coalition was an illegitimate coup were outright lies, then, correct?

And let's also remember the likely inspiration from the 2008 coalition was the opposition parties floating the idea in 2005 during the Martin government. In that case, the Bloc would have propped up the Tories and NDP as well.

[Boges]

I believe it was a coupe attempt. A legal coupe but a coupe nevertheless. The CPC had already formed government.

Make no mistake, the only reason the opposition did this is because the CPC wanted to scrap per vote subsidies. Which ended up happening anyway.

[ToadBrother]

I believe it was a coupe attempt. A legal coupe but a coupe nevertheless. The CPC had already formed government.

Make no mistake, the only reason the opposition did this is because the CPC wanted to scrap per vote subsidies. Which ended up happening anyway.

By definition, a coup is an extra-legal seizure of power. So no, it was not a coup, and saying "legal coup" is oxymoronic.

[Hydraboss]

yes - in countries with a knowledgeable population; one that hasn't been twisted with the lies spun by Harper Conservatives about "votes stolen and democracy denied"... it's called coalition government!

Then let them announce that they'll form an official coalition. That way, there's only 41.4% of Canadians that don't want them to form government. Easy.

[waldo]

You mean a strawman like talking about the 2008 Coupe I MEAN! legal coalition effort in a thread about Federal Opinion polling in the 2015 election?

no strawman by me... if you actually read you'll see a direct flow and relevance to coalition governing.

[Boges]

By definition, a coup is an extra-legal seizure of power. So no, it was not a coup, and saying "legal coup" is oxymoronic.

Fine, what they tried to do was swell.

Only it wasn't because they backed off once Harper gave the Liberals a cooling off period. Especially the idea that Stephane Dion, a politician that the electorate completely rebuked for his Green Shift would become the PM. Again propped up by the Block. (officially)

Also how do we know that the attempted coalition wouldn't have triggered another election. I guess it was up to the GG, we'll never know.

[ToadBrother]

Then let them announce that they'll form an official coalition. That way, there's only 41.4% of Canadians that don't want them to form government. Easy.

Why would anyone do that before the votes are counted?

[waldo]

Then let them announce that they'll form an official coalition. That way, there's only 41.4% of Canadians that don't want them to form government. Easy.

coalitions are both legitimate up-front before an election as well as the result of post-election circumstance. We saw the result when Harper Conservatives wigged out over the possibility of a coalition government post election result.

[Boges]

Why would anyone do that before the votes are counted?

Because it would effect how people vote. You notice both parties won't even entertain the idea of a coalition now. They kind of blew their wad on that in 2008.

[Boges]

coalitions are both legitimate up-front before an election as well as the result of post-election circumstance. We saw the result when Harper Conservatives wigged out over the possibility of a coalition government post election result.

Then why didn't Dion and Layton go to the GG immediately after the election to try and form a government?

[ToadBrother]

Then why didn't Dion and Layton go to the GG immediately after the election to try and form a government?

Well, for starters, the incumbent government always has first right to form a government, and in reality, until it resigns or is defeated, IS the government.

Thus, if another group within Parliament wishes to unseat the current government, they must do so through a confidence vote.

[Kageshima]

Nanos for Wednesday, September 30th

Liberals & Conservatives in a dead heat, with the Liberals gaining points in support most likely due to the fact that some progressive swing voters are jumping ship from the third-place NDP.

From CTV:

The latest numbers show:

• 32.2 per cent supported the Liberals as their top choice
• 32.1 per cent picked the Conservatives as their top choice
• 26.3 per cent chose the NDP

The race for top choice in B.C. intensified in the latest poll, with support for the NDP and the Conservatives taking a dip, while the Liberals saw a surge in their numbers. In B.C., support for the NDP was at 31.9 per cent, with the Conservatives in second at 30.4 per cent and the Liberals in third with 29.5 per cent. The Liberals gained 6.6 percentage points over Tuesday's numbers, while the NDP dropped 4.8 per cent and the Conservatives dipped by 2.8 per cent.

The NDP continued to see their lead soften in Quebec, where the Liberals and the Bloc Quebecois each made modest gains. The Bloc Quebecois have now passed the Conservatives as the third-most preferred choice for voters in Quebec.

The Liberals hold a marginal advantage over the Conservatives in Ontario, with the NDP trailing in third.

The Conservatives remain the top choice in the Prairies, and the Liberals hold a comfortable lead in Atlantic Canada.

Edited September 30, 2015 by Kageshima

[ToadBrother]

The race for top choice in B.C. intensified in the latest poll, with support for the NDP and the Conservatives taking a dip, while the Liberals saw a surge in their numbers. In B.C., support for the NDP was at 31.9 per cent, with the Conservatives in second at 30.4 per cent and the Liberals in third with 29.5 per cent. The Liberals gained 6.6 percentage points over Tuesday's numbers, while the NDP dropped 4.8 per cent and the Conservatives dipped by 2.8 per cent.

The NDP continued to see their lead soften in Quebec, where the Liberals and the Bloc Quebecois each made modest gains. The Bloc Quebecois have now passed the Conservatives as the third-most preferred choice for voters in Quebec.

The Liberals hold a marginal advantage over the Conservatives in Ontario, with the NDP trailing in third.

The Conservatives remain the top choice in the Prairies, and the Liberals hold a comfortable lead in Atlantic Canada.

Beginning to look a more normal election. All we need is for the NDP to drop another three or four points, and either the Liberals or Tories to rob a few points from the other, and why, it will look like just about every election between 1968 and 1988.

[Kageshima]

Agreed. If BC stays the way it is or continues to move in the direction of the Liberals, this is HUGE for Trudeau, as it has been discussed multiple times before that BC could very well be the province that ultimately decides who wins the election. Being a bigger competitor there is of utmost importance to all 3 parties.

[ToadBrother]

Agreed. If BC stays the way it is or continues to move in the direction of the Liberals, this is HUGE for Trudeau, as it has been discussed multiple times before that BC could very well be the province that ultimately decides who wins the election. Being a bigger competitor there is of utmost importance to all 3 parties.

The funny thing is that I had heard someone who I trust to be in the know suggest that the Liberals were far stronger than they appeared, and I discounted. I was firmly expecting a Tory or NDP minority, with the Liberals the third party again; a stronger party, but still third place.

Now I'm seriously considering the possibility that Trudeau with either be PM on election night, or that the NDP, stuck back in third, agreeing to help the Liberals topple a weak Tory minority at the earliest opportunity.

One thing is for sure, all those dreams Stephen Harper had of wiping out the Liberal Party are dead and gone.

[cybercoma]

LOL. Thanks for the headsup.

Anyways, today's news about how Canada's out of an official recession should be nice.

According to the Conservative Party's anti-deficit law, the country is not out of a recession until it has had two quarters of positive growth. One month of stagnate growth (July +0.3%) is not "out of an official recession" as you say.