Federal Election Polls

drummindiver · September 13, 2015

Debating isn't your biggest strength, is it?

lol

Is that your interpretation of debate?

That's the most sense any of your posts have ever made, and it's at my expense. Good for you. I'll try a little of that debatin you ain't sellin!!!

"I don't think that it's an exaggeration to suggest that our unnecessarily convoluted and archaic system is a material part of the reason that Harper is still in power today"

The fact is, he was democratically voted in by the people. Is democracy that convoluted and archaic system you are referring to?

"And consider this. It's bad enough that most of the important decisions are made by Harper and the PMO".

Odd, right, that the ppl elected to make important decisions would make the important decisions?

"And Canadians get most of their understanding of politics in the same place they get most of their understanding of law - from watching American TV shows".

I'm Canadian, and I've got zero of my understanding of politics from watching American tv shows.

"If the system were simpler and intuitive, more people would understand it"

Intuitive? Is this along the lines of the "grow the economy from the heart out" school of politics?

"So, the Queen will sit back and allow people to assume and argue she is a force for stability".

She is a force for instability?

"A good system should protect us from bad people. In our case, we seem to have a bad system that works only due to the integrity of outstanding individuals".

What? You are asserting because you don't agree with someone's policies they are a bad person? This is such a juvenile pedestrian statement. We vote ppl in, we vote ppl out...that's how you are protected from "bad people", whatever the hell that means.

"You think that the views of the Prime Minister, who exercises power that a president could only dream of"

Yeah, the president of the He Man Women Haters Club.

"The point is that our system lacks sufficient checks and balances to prevent them from exercising almost unchecked power. Harper may not be a dictator; but he has implemented changes in law and convention that would make it much easier for a dictator to take power".

Clearly, we have checks and balances to prevent just that. Also, clearly, this is pure hyperbole with no basis

"Every time our PM lies to us about how our system works, she doesn't bother to correct him".

Clearly, not her job to get on the horn.

"And part of the reason the country is divided is that we have a voting system that rewards leaders who use wedge issues to divide people".

Different ppl want different things. It's also curious you bring this up, seeing how JT has bashed the west while clearly championing Quebec.

".The PM appoints everyone (including the GG who later decides the outcome of elections), controls all the legislation and dictates to the senate"

Clearly your knowledge of our system is limited. The Queen appoints the GG, on the advice of the PM.

.

Queenmandy85 · September 13, 2015

It was Michael Volpe who observed that Prime Minister doesn't own the authority, he merely borrows it from the Crown.

Authority is the right to make the decisions, power is the ability to carry them out.

The PM has power but no authority. The Crown has all the authority but not the power. Only Parliament can vote money.

As for becoming a dictator, the Prime Minister may give orders, but how does he enforce them?

The wonderful thing about democracy, subordinates will carry out the boss's orders when they feel like it. If you look between the lines of the testimony at the Duffy trial, you can see it happening to Harper. Now that there is the smell of defeat, it will only get worse for him. There is a war going on between Novak and Tenike (please excuse the spelling, its late and the Riders just lost) in the PMO. Harper really doesn't have all that much power. Unless the polls shift dramatically, the PM (who ever that will be) will have even less.

Queenmandy85 · September 13, 2015

As I said on another thread, Reefer, if you don't like Harper, just remember he is there because you didn't work hard enough to elect someone else. I hope you are out tonight, knocking on doors, and working the phones to get some one better elected.

cybercoma · September 13, 2015

You really have to wonder if the system wasn't deliberately designed to confuse people with - "if you can't dazzle them with brilliance you can always baffle them with horse apples".

Baffle them with horse apples isn't an alliteration. :lol:

Vancouver King · September 13, 2015

Nightly Nanos tracking (Sept. 13th):

CPC - 31.7

NDP - 30.8

Libs - 30.5

Prediction: there will be no consensus..

cybercoma · September 14, 2015

I trust Nanos's overnight numbers about as much as I trust his weekly averages. Each night his survey is roughly +/- 5% 19 times out of 20. He stitches those together to create a larger sample of 1200 which is about +/- 2.7% 19 times out of 20. Currently, they're all in a statistical tie. However, each individual sample could be out by as much as 5 points. Tying them altogether it increases the accuracy only by increasing the sample size over the three day period. I haven't looked, but I would be very interested in seeing how he "averages" the surveys. Does he combine everything into the same data set and run the data in full? Does he just average the outcomes over three days? Does he control for non-independent data points (i.e., polling the same person more than once during the 3 day period)? How does he weigh the data, given the changing composition of the data set each day?

Nanos's numbers have been pretty wonky since he started using these methods. He's been way off from other pollsters. I wouldn't take his overnights as gospel, but it's clear from the other polls that the race is tightening. This week's numbers should be interesting.

Smallc · September 14, 2015

I trust Nanos's overnight numbers about as much as I trust his weekly averages. Each night his survey is roughly +/- 5% 19 times out of 20. He stitches those together to create a larger sample of 1200 which is about +/- 2.7% 19 times out of 20. Currently, they're all in a statistical tie. However, each individual sample could be out by as much as 5 points.

That's completely irrelevant. It's the aggregate that matters. For someone who claims to understand polling so well...

cybercoma · September 14, 2015

That's completely irrelevant. It's the aggregate that matters. For someone who claims to understand polling so well...

It absolutely matters how he aggregates them and how he weighs the results.

cybercoma · September 14, 2015

I'll give you an example of a big problem with Nanos's method. Most other pollsters conduct polls over a 2-3 day period (like Nanos does). However, what they do is draw a random sample of people and contact them. If they can't get ahold of them, then they call them back at different times and on different days. This ensures that the sample is more random, since they try repeatedly to get ahold of the randomly selected respondents. Nanos can't do that with his overnights. The people who don't respond to the overnights may have particular characteristics in common. This results in a non-random sample, which then needs to be weighted. So you take a smaller sample that has an accuracy of +/- 5% to begin with and you add even more error to that, since he's not repeatedly trying to get ahold of the randomly sampled participants and the polls are potentially even further biased.

I don't like the method. I think it produces unnecessary errors and doesn't control for common problems in opinion polls. The parties are tied according to Abacus today as well, but that doesn't make me feel any better about the methods that Nanos uses.

Smallc · September 14, 2015

And yet Nanos, with this method, has pretty much always been the closest.

cybercoma · September 14, 2015

New Abacus Data for 9/14.

The desire for change in Ottawa continues to grow, according to Abacus. Down 18 points since December, only 32% of Canadians say we're headed in the right direction. The desire for change in Ottawa is the highest it has been with 76% either say it's "definitely time for change" (61%) or that they're "inclined to want change" (15%).

Voting intention hasn't moved since Abacus's last poll with a virtual tie: NDP-31%, CPC-29%, LPC-29%. Regional results puts the NDP at 47% in QC. The CPC takes the lead in ON at 36% with the LPC close behind at 33%. The NDP has fallen off the race in ON, sitting at 25%. The LPC dominates the Maritimes at 48%. The CPC is way ahead in the MB/SK and AB with 41% and 49% respectively. BC is leaning NDP at 35%, while the other two parties aren't far behind at 30% each.

The voter polls of the LPC and NDP are much greater than the CPC. However, the NDP has had a 6 point drop in the number of people who would consider voting for them. They now sit at 56% to the LPC 54%. The CPC is at 41%.

That vast majority of people are still unsure of how they will vote. Only 31% are absolutely certain. Amongst CPC voters 49% said they are absolutely certain how they will vote and that will not change. Amongst the NDP 53% said they have a pretty good idea of how they will vote, but it might change. 46% of the Liberal voters indicated the same, as well as 45% of Green voters. Of all the voters in the country 40% have a fairly good idea of how they will vote, but indicate that it might change.

Both the Liberals and NDP are tied amongst voters who definitely want change in Ottawa. Earlier, the NDP had a 12 point advantage over the Liberals on this front.

cybercoma · September 14, 2015

And yet Nanos, with this method, has pretty much always been the closest.

He hasn't always used this method. But even so, he's not any more accurate than other pollsters.

Chances are the CPC is underreported again and are probably sitting at about 34% with the NDP and LPC around 30% at the moment.

ToadBrother · September 14, 2015

He hasn't always used this method. But even so, he's not any more accurate than other pollsters.

Chances are the CPC is underreported again and are probably sitting at about 34% with the NDP and LPC around 30% at the moment.

It strikes me that all the pollsters, and the threehundredeight.com aggregate are building in Tory vote efficiency into the models. That's why, right now, Eric is showing the Tories with a slim plurality. I don't really buy the "the Tories are more popular than they seem" meme.

ToadBrother · September 14, 2015

It was Michael Volpe who observed that Prime Minister doesn't own the authority, he merely borrows it from the Crown.

Authority is the right to make the decisions, power is the ability to carry them out.

The PM has power but no authority. The Crown has all the authority but not the power. Only Parliament can vote money.

As for becoming a dictator, the Prime Minister may give orders, but how does he enforce them?

The wonderful thing about democracy, subordinates will carry out the boss's orders when they feel like it. If you look between the lines of the testimony at the Duffy trial, you can see it happening to Harper. Now that there is the smell of defeat, it will only get worse for him. There is a war going on between Novak and Tenike (please excuse the spelling, its late and the Riders just lost) in the PMO. Harper really doesn't have all that much power. Unless the polls shift dramatically, the PM (who ever that will be) will have even less.

Frankly, I think the PMO has been rendered largely impotent. The trial demonstrated that caucus was already deeply displeased by the PMO two years ago, and there is every indication that Harper has lost considerable political capital among the rank and file. Yes, they'll all defend him publicly, because that's what you do, but there's been no lack of "anonymous sources" for months now indicating deep rifts in the caucus.

And why should it surprise anyone? This happens to all parties sooner or later. Harper has had an eleven year run as CPC leader, and a nine year run as PM. That's not a record breaker, but it isn't too shabby.

cybercoma · September 14, 2015

It strikes me that all the pollsters, and the threehundredeight.com aggregate are building in Tory vote efficiency into the models. That's why, right now, Eric is showing the Tories with a slim plurality. I don't really buy the "the Tories are more popular than they seem" meme.

I think that comes from the "firmness" of their vote. People who are voting Tory aren't even considering the alternatives. And why would they? There's no conservative alternative in Canada. The other parties compete with each other for votes and when someone still isn't sure on election day, they're more likely to stay home.

Evening Star · September 14, 2015

I dunno, it depends on which issues are most important to you but I think a lot of Tory voters could probably find some common ground in either the current Liberal or NDP platforms. We're not even really looking at Cameron vs Corbyn or Sanders vs Trump here.

Edited September 14, 2015 by Evening Star

cybercoma · September 14, 2015

I dunno, it depends on which issues are most important to you but I think a lot of Tory voters could probably find some common ground in either the current Liberal or NDP platforms. We're not even really looking at Cameron vs Corbyn or Sanders vs Trump here.

They don't. It's shown in the polling. They're voting CPC and don't give a crap about the other parties. It isn't even a question for them.

Evening Star · September 14, 2015

They don't. It's shown in the polling. They're voting CPC and don't give a crap about the other parties. It isn't even a question for them.

Hm, OK, looking at your Abacus link, about half of Tory voters feel this way, which is more than for the other parties. That still means that half don't, though!

Edited September 14, 2015 by Evening Star

Keepitsimple · September 14, 2015

They don't. It's shown in the polling. They're voting CPC and don't give a crap about the other parties. It isn't even a question for them.

Generally speaking, Conservatives will not vote NDP - but many, like me - would consider voting Liberal. That ship sailed when they put Trudeau as captain of the ship - instead of Garneau. So yes, you're right - at this juncture, the vast majority of Conservatives don't give a crap about the other parties - in spite of the government's warts.

cybercoma · September 14, 2015

Hm, OK, looking at your Abacus link, about half of Tory voters feel this way. That still means that half don't, though!

That's 20 points higher than the NDP and 11 points higher than the LPC, as far as certainty goes CPC voters are far more certain.

cybercoma · September 14, 2015

Generally speaking, Conservatives will not vote NDP

Far more would probably vote LPC, but I've heard a number of CPC supporters say that they would rather vote NDP than have Trudeau as prime minister. I think you may not quite appreciate how much they hate the Trudeau name in Alberta.

Edited September 14, 2015 by cybercoma

ToadBrother · September 14, 2015

Generally speaking, Conservatives will not vote NDP - but many, like me - would consider voting Liberal. That ship sailed when they put Trudeau as captain of the ship - instead of Garneau. So yes, you're right - at this juncture, the vast majority of Conservatives don't give a crap about the other parties - in spite of the government's warts.

I think you're wrong on both scores. I think a number of Red Tory-types (Progressive Conservatives if you will) will, perhaps with reservations, likely vote Liberal. I also think that there are a number of Reform types, of the old school, who deeply dislike Harper who will either sit on their hands this election, or vote NDP simply because they hate the Liberals so very much.

Edited September 14, 2015 by ToadBrother

Keepitsimple · September 14, 2015

Far more would probably vote LPC, but I've heard a number of CPC supporters say that they would rather vote NDP than have Trudeau as prime minister. I think you may not quite appreciate how much they hate the Trudeau name in Alberta.

As I said - if it was somebody other than Trudeau, Conservatives would at least kick the tires.......and no, I don't underestimate how much Albertans detest the Trudeau name.

ToadBrother · September 14, 2015

As I said - if it was somebody other than Trudeau, Conservatives would at least kick the tires.......and no, I don't underestimate how much Albertans detest the Trudeau name.

I have my doubts the Liberals will ever represent a significant electoral force in Alberta, at least not in the next decade or two. The Trudeau name may be part of that (but really, a fair chunk of the voters were either too young or not born when eggs were being hurled at PET's train), but in general I think the party name itself is more the poison than who is leading. That's probably fading, but it's going to take another generation before NEP is a distant enough memory for the Liberals to have a chance.

cybercoma · September 14, 2015

I think you're wrong on both scores. I think a number of Red Tory-types (Progressive Conservatives if you will) will, perhaps with reservations, likely vote Liberal. I also think that there are a number of Reform types, of the old school, who deeply dislike Harper who will either sit on their hands this election, or vote NDP simply because they hate the Liberals so very much.

By playing the middle, Harper has alienated both sides of his party. After having a majority for the past 4 years, he hasn't much to show for it to appease either camp. Look at how many people left before this election. The party's not satisfied with his performance.