eyeball Posted September 12, 2015 Report Posted September 12, 2015 (edited) My riding (on Vancouver Island) was carved out of two former CPC ridings (one a long-time CPC and before that Reform riding, the other save for the 2008 election dominated by the Conservatives), and this time the Conservative MP, who has done fairly well in the past, looks to be going down in defeat. BC is threatening to become a real carnage for the Tories. I have to say dividing the Comox Valley into two different ridings sure doesn't make much sense and they should have lumped West Vancouver into an adjacent urban riding rather than chopping off Powell River from the mainland and making it part of an island riding. It seems plain stupid from a bioregional perspective. Edited September 12, 2015 by eyeball Quote A government without public oversight is like a nuclear plant without lead shielding.
ReeferMadness Posted September 12, 2015 Report Posted September 12, 2015 (edited) You didn't ask me that. Pay attention to who you're talking to. I think that most of them are here for a good time, and not a long time, as the song says. They're cold and sacred and they want somewhere safe to go. So you didn't. I'm not sure why you answered, though. It seems like there are a few people here who are about a half step away from hate speech. I think they should just say what they think instead of dancing a half step away. Edited September 12, 2015 by ReeferMadness Quote Unlimited economic growth has the marvelous quality of stilling discontent while preserving privilege, a fact that has not gone unnoticed among liberal economists. - Noam Chomsky It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it. - Upton Sinclair
Canada_First Posted September 12, 2015 Report Posted September 12, 2015 So you didn't. I'm not sure why you answered, though. It seems like there are a few people here who are about a half step away from hate speech. I think they should just say what they think instead of dancing a half step away. Can we send the scummy refugees who victimize us or who remain a social burden or are we stuck with these deadbeats forever? Quote
cybercoma Posted September 12, 2015 Report Posted September 12, 2015 1% is within the margin of error. That's not a lead yet. It's a statistical tie. 1% difference but it is the conservatives that had the lead. And that could have changed by now and again tomorrow. And Raitt is a good call. Quote
cybercoma Posted September 12, 2015 Report Posted September 12, 2015 Take the immigration stuff to one of the several other immigration threads, FFS. Quote
Vancouver King Posted September 12, 2015 Report Posted September 12, 2015 My, oh my. One decent day of poll results and every racist ignoramus in the party base is emboldened to crawl from under their rocks. Quote When the people have no tyrant, their public opinion becomes one. ...... Lord Lytton
Canada_First Posted September 12, 2015 Report Posted September 12, 2015 Polls go up and down. Plus they almost always show lower Tory numbers then reality. Quote
Vancouver King Posted September 12, 2015 Report Posted September 12, 2015 Overnights from Nanos: Liberal - 32 CPC - 31 NDP - 30 Will any party break from the stalemate? Quote When the people have no tyrant, their public opinion becomes one. ...... Lord Lytton
Triple M Posted September 12, 2015 Report Posted September 12, 2015 Don't think we'll see major changes until post election/Thanksgiving Quote
Vancouver King Posted September 12, 2015 Report Posted September 12, 2015 A 3-way lock is actually good news for anti-Harper forces. It means Conservatives will very likely be denied a majority - and anything short of a majority means Harper can be held in check or defeated in the Commons. Quote When the people have no tyrant, their public opinion becomes one. ...... Lord Lytton
ToadBrother Posted September 12, 2015 Report Posted September 12, 2015 A 3-way lock is actually good news for anti-Harper forces. It means Conservatives will very likely be denied a majority - and anything short of a majority means Harper can be held in check or defeated in the Commons. It's hard to see how they'll get anywhere near majority territory, though they're obviously hoping the Wizard of Oz will do for Harper what he did for Cameron. But for the Tories to have a real hope of winning a majority they're going to have to consistently bump above 35%, and I sitll feel anything lower than 38% makes it improbable that they will have a safe majority (a borderline majority can be as dangerous as a minority). Anything can happen, but the Tories strategy seems to have been that Mulcair would be toxic to large swathes of the electorate outside Quebec, and Trudeau would self-destruct. I think the Tories have been trapped by their past strategies; that they could rely on a disorganized and disunited Liberal party lead by weak leaders. Now that Trudeau has actually revealed himself to be a fairly disciplined leader, and has shed a lot of that off-the-cuff musings that got him in trouble in the past, all of a sudden the Tories are left with ads saying "Yeah, Stephen Harper isn't perfect, but..." Even if they get a minority around the 120 to 130 seat mark, how the hell do they govern when they've got parties that are hungry for their blood, and who clearly would have no problem defeating the government at the earliest opportunity? The Tories have treated the Liberals so horribly during the effective confidence and supply period from 2009 to 2011 that even if he wanted to, it would be politically impossible to prop up a Tory minority. Quote
ToadBrother Posted September 12, 2015 Report Posted September 12, 2015 Polls go up and down. Plus they almost always show lower Tory numbers then reality. Which is why the Tory camp has been in a panic, and they've brought in an outside "Wizard" to save their hides. But even if the Tories numbers are two points higher, they're still screwed. They might get 130 to 140 seats with that, and still be defeated at the Speech from the Throne. Quote
Canada_First Posted September 12, 2015 Report Posted September 12, 2015 Which is why the Tory camp has been in a panic, and they've brought in an outside "Wizard" to save their hides. But even if the Tories numbers are two points higher, they're still screwed. They might get 130 to 140 seats with that, and still be defeated at the Speech from the Throne. So you think the opposition will be uncooperative and defeat a minority Tory government ASAP?Without even trying to work with the government? Quote
ToadBrother Posted September 12, 2015 Report Posted September 12, 2015 So you think the opposition will be uncooperative and defeat a minority Tory government ASAP? Without even trying to work with the government? Yup, I think if the Tories only get a bare plurality of a few seats, they won't survive the Speech from the Throne. Once again, we do not elect governments. We elect Parliaments, and Parliament decides who governs. Quote
Canada_First Posted September 12, 2015 Report Posted September 12, 2015 So you are banking on the GG simply asking someone else to govern. Ok. Well that's one theory. If you can show me a cite where any party leader has said they'd do that I'd appreciate it. It would take both the Libs and NDP together to pull it off so I'll either two cites it if they're both in one cite. That'd be great. Maybe it's in the platform? Thank you. Quote
ReeferMadness Posted September 12, 2015 Report Posted September 12, 2015 Yup, I think if the Tories only get a bare plurality of a few seats, they won't survive the Speech from the Throne. Once again, we do not elect governments. We elect Parliaments, and Parliament decides who governs. And in Canada, nobody understands that aside from a relative handful of people. Don't you remember when the Conservatives accused the other parties of staging a coup? Quote Unlimited economic growth has the marvelous quality of stilling discontent while preserving privilege, a fact that has not gone unnoticed among liberal economists. - Noam Chomsky It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it. - Upton Sinclair
ToadBrother Posted September 12, 2015 Report Posted September 12, 2015 So you are banking on the GG simply asking someone else to govern. Ok. Well that's one theory. If you can show me a cite where any party leader has said they'd do that I'd appreciate it. It would take both the Libs and NDP together to pull it off so I'll either two cites it if they're both in one cite. That'd be great. Maybe it's in the platform? Thank you. If, as Harper promises, Parliament is recalled very shortly after the election, and the opposition vote no confidence, do you seriously think the GG would call another election, weeks after the first one? As to citations, I'm just saying it as I see it. Mulcair hasn't rejected the idea, and Trudeau, while refusing to commit to a coalition, has made it clear he'd support a government on a bill by bill basis, but you don't think he's going to commit the same blunder that Ignatieff did, do you/? Quote
cybercoma Posted September 12, 2015 Report Posted September 12, 2015 If Elizabeth May keeps her seat, Bruce Hyer keeps his, and they manage to get a couple more Greens in the building, you could have an interesting scenario if the other 3 parties are within a few seats of each other. Quote
Canada_First Posted September 12, 2015 Report Posted September 12, 2015 And in Canada, nobody understands that aside from a relative handful of people. Don't you remember when the Conservatives accused the other parties of staging a coup?Well start educating the public now then to let them know a coup is acceptable in Canada. Start trending it on twitter. Quote
ToadBrother Posted September 12, 2015 Report Posted September 12, 2015 And in Canada, nobody understands that aside from a relative handful of people. Don't you remember when the Conservatives accused the other parties of staging a coup? All too well. One of the more vile lies of the Tories. Quote
On Guard for Thee Posted September 12, 2015 Report Posted September 12, 2015 A 3-way lock is actually good news for anti-Harper forces. It means Conservatives will very likely be denied a majority - and anything short of a majority means Harper can be held in check or defeated in the Commons. Harper has already said that without a majority he won't sit as PM. Quote
cybercoma Posted September 12, 2015 Report Posted September 12, 2015 Frankly, I think it's extremely unlikely that the election day results will be that close. Even if the popular vote is a 3-way tie, we've seen how that doesn't translate to a representative parliament already. Quote
ToadBrother Posted September 12, 2015 Report Posted September 12, 2015 Well start educating the public now then to let them know a coup is acceptable in Canada. Start trending it on twitter. A coup is an unlawful or extraconstitutional seizure of power. Can you explain where exactly defeating a government on the Throne Speech and the Governor General picking some other party to form a government is unlawful or unconstitutional Quote
Smallc Posted September 12, 2015 Report Posted September 12, 2015 Harper has already said that without a majority he won't sit as PM. When did he say that? Quote
Canada_First Posted September 12, 2015 Report Posted September 12, 2015 When did he say that? He said if he doesn't have the most seats. Not an actual majority. He won't try to hold power if he loses by a couple seats he said. He said during Mansbridge I think. Quote
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