Federal Election Polls

[ToadBrother]

If Harper is bringing in new consultants halfway through an election, you can be sure that he's looked at the number in close ridings and is not feeling very comfortable. I can tell you that the Conservative incumbent in my riding and former cabinet minister is looking like he won't be re-elected this time around, considering the liberal has nearly a 10 point lead on him. Granted, that's just my riding and the Liberals are polling strong in Atlantic Canada, but Nova Scotia is also looking like it's going to shut out the CPC too, since I think every last incumbent is gone from that province. The popular vote may not show it, but when you look at seats changing colour, there's a lot to be worried about for Harper.

My riding (on Vancouver Island) was carved out of two former CPC ridings (one a long-time CPC and before that Reform riding, the other save for the 2008 election dominated by the Conservatives), and this time the Conservative MP, who has done fairly well in the past, looks to be going down in defeat. BC is threatening to become a real carnage for the Tories.

[jacee]

I take numbers with some grain of thought, for example i don't think that the NDP was ever at 40% or at 36% , or the CPC was in the low 20's. However, i feel forum deserves credit because they were the first poll showing the Tories in 3rd.

I think what is significant in the last few polls seems like the CPC might be benefiting from the Trudeau serge. Dissatisfied Tories that were looking at the NDP might be holding their nose fearful of a Trudeau victory. I feel that observation holds up in the numbers from BC and the Parries.

Ontario might be a different issue i think the movement is from soft Lib/CPC shifting, especially in the 905/suburban metro Toronto.

905 Toronto perhaps, if the rich think they can gain control of Justin, but that puts the Con rich up against the Lib rich fighting for control of the Library machine.

If a big swing happens, Harper totally discredited, however, 705, 519 & 613 rural, are more likely to swing from CPC to NDP I think.

It's still a horse race, but Harper isn't much of a contender at this point, so big swings are likely late in the game.

We'll see what his new hired gun, the Wizard of Oz, has up his sleeve. (Note use of a phrase that implies cheating.)

The rich/corporate shark crowd will be waiting excitedly for that too.

But the rural, largely PROGRESSIVE conservative Ontarians and other Canadians may be disgusted by such tactics, bringing in foreign help, for starters, imo.

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Edited September 11, 2015 by jacee

[cybercoma]

My riding (on Vancouver Island) was carved out of two former CPC ridings (one a long-time CPC and before that Reform riding, the other save for the 2008 election dominated by the Conservatives), and this time the Conservative MP, who has done fairly well in the past, looks to be going down in defeat. BC is threatening to become a real carnage for the Tories.

See, these are the things that the popular vote doesn't show: seat changes. Our elections are first and foremost local. We can see from past elections that the popular vote doesn't line up with the seat counts and the seat counts are all that matters on election day. It's like I said before, I don't think the NDP or Liberals can win, unless they soundly trounce the CPC. However, seeing the popular support for the CPC dip to 25%, hearing about ridings changing colours, and witnessing Harper bring in the big guns halfway through the campaign, one has to believe that the Tories are in a lot of trouble as of right now. Lots of time left for that to change though.

[ToadBrother]

i think Ekos, Forum, and Nanos all show CPC the tories have had a bump over the last few days.

Yes, and it seems largely at the NDP's expense. Threehundredeight.com basically has all three at or near a statistical dead heat, with the Liberals enjoying a very slight seat projection. But when you're talking about projections where the distance between the "winner" and "loser" is 14 seats, I'm going to say that I don't think anyone can call this election.

It does inform me as to why Harper invoked a rather non-Westminster version of who gets to govern in a hung Parliament; with his statement that the party with the most seats has the right to govern, and not the incumbent. While this would seem to take the Tories out of the running if they lose by one seat, I think he's also trying to argue that it would be somehow illegitimate should the Tories win by one seat for the Opposition to gang up and defeat a Tory minority on the Speech from the Throne.

I'll say this, if we end up with this tight a result, where the Tories hold a bare plurality of a few seats, whatever Harper's view of who forms a legitimate government, I'd say he's wasting his party's time in trying to hold on to power. They won't survive the Throne Speech.

[cybercoma]

905 Toronto perhaps, if the rich think they can gain control of Justin, but that puts the Con rich up against the Lib rich fight in for control of the Libs.

If a big swing happens, Harper totally discredited, however, 705, 519 & 613 rural, are more likely to swing from CPC to NDP I think.

It's still a horse race, but Harper isn't much of a contender anymore, so big swings are likely late in the game.

We'll see what his new hired gun, the Wizard of Oz, has up his sleeve.

The rich/corporate shark crowd will be waiting for that too.

But the rural, largely PROGRESSIVE conservative Ontarians and other Canadians may be disgusted by such tactics, imo.

.

I can tell you from personal observation that 519 rural is not swinging from CPC. Jeff Watson has Essex tied down.

[jacee]

I can tell you from personal observation that 519 rural is not swinging from CPC. Jeff Watson has Essex tied down.

519 is bigger than Essex.

In Alberta provincial election, we saw only the rich pockets stick with the Conservatives. A big swing away from the rich controlled CPC in Ontario would not go to the rich controlled Liberals, but more likely mostly NDP and some Green.

It comes down to local candidates though.

Windsor workers still support the Conservatives?

Edited September 11, 2015 by jacee

[cybercoma]

519 is bigger than Essex.

It is, but which ridings do you see movement in?

[Evening Star]

But the rural, largely PROGRESSIVE conservative Ontarians and other Canadians may be disgusted by such tactics, bringing in foreign help, for starters, imo.

.

I doubt that most voters pay attention to which strategists political parties hire.

[jacee]

It is, but which ridings do you see movement in?

Sorry ... I'm taking too long to edit. See expanded post above.

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[ToadBrother]

See, these are the things that the popular vote doesn't show: seat changes. Our elections are first and foremost local. We can see from past elections that the popular vote doesn't line up with the seat counts and the seat counts are all that matters on election day. It's like I said before, I don't think the NDP or Liberals can win, unless they soundly trounce the CPC. However, seeing the popular support for the CPC dip to 25%, hearing about ridings changing colours, and witnessing Harper bring in the big guns halfway through the campaign, one has to believe that the Tories are in a lot of trouble as of right now. Lots of time left for that to change though.

There's lots of time, to be sure. We have over a month until we go to the polls, so calling it now is ludicrous. Still, the Tories are behaving like an incumbent going down the tubes. I've seen this many times over the years; when you have backroom campaign staff anonymously telling reporters that the campaign manager is doing a bad job, when you have old rifts between key players in the campaign coming to the surface, and suddenly you have the campaign trying to call in a white knight to save the day, it doesn't inspire a lot of confidence. All campaigns have their rifts; high emotions can collide with strategy, and people who feel they have been sidelined by the senior campaign staff can begin to feel a lot of animosity. But when the party is winning, any bad feelings are put aside, because, hey, we're winning!!!! But when a campaign is going sideways, well that's when fingers get pointed and the old grudges get brought back up, and people try to use outsiders like the press to attack the people they see as responsible for the problem.

Crikeys, there have even been some somewhat indirect attacks on the PM himself from some Tory insiders; the sort of classic "he's being lead down the wrong path" line which while seeming to attack his immediate advisers, is as much about attacking the PM for listening to those advisers.

[Evening Star]

Windsor workers still support the Conservatives?

I don't think either Windsor riding has gone to the Tories during my lifetime?

[cybercoma]

Sorry ... I'm taking too long to edit. See expanded post above.

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Windsor workers don't support the Conservatives. Windsor will go NDP as it has since Herb Grey left Windsor-West. However, I'm not sure how Windsor-Tecumseh will swing, since Joe Comartin is gone. I haven't heard. That side of the city was always more Conservative then the west end, but I suspect it will go NDP again anyway.

The rural areas are almost certainly going Conservative. There might be some movement in London, since the last election was close. Other than that, I don't see much flipping in SW Ontario below Niagara.

[cybercoma]

I don't think either Windsor riding has gone to the Tories during my lifetime?

Windsor was a Liberal stronghold before going to the NDP, as far as I can remember.

Edit: Jo-anne Gignac is a recognizable name in Windsor-St. Clair though. She gives the CPC a big opportunity there as a long time city councillor.

Edited September 11, 2015 by cybercoma

[Evening Star]

Windsor was a Liberal stronghold before going to the NDP, as far as I can remember.

Yep, i.e. it has never gone to the Tories during my lifetime (and probably during the preceding few decades).

[Derek 2.0]

And latest from EKOS:

It goes on to suggest that Harper's drowning of Syrian children on Turkish beaches has given him a bump:

In fact, the current conventional wisdom on this issue is probably wrong; the refugee crisis has not hurt Mr. Harper. In fact, it seems to be helping him. It appears from our polling that the Conservative party has consolidated — and possibly even expanded — its base. At these numbers, the Conservatives could easily win the election and form a minority government despite being stuck at 32 points.

As I said above about firm party bases to build upon.........

[PIK]

From one yr ago harper is up a few pts and trudeau is down about 12.

[BC_chick]

It goes on to suggest that Harper's drowning of Syrian children on Turkish beaches has given him a bump:

What that really necessary?

[Derek 2.0]

From one yr ago harper is up a few pts and trudeau is down about 12.

More telling:

[Derek 2.0]

What that really necessary?

No more than the past weeks suggestion that the death of the young boy was at the feet of the Tories/Harper/Alexander

[ToadBrother]

More telling:

It still looks like an outlier. The Tories are on an upswing, but we'll see how the polls look on Monday.

Still, it doesn't suggest a large Tory minority at this point, and that spells trouble for how exactly they would survive a Throne Speech.

[Derek 2.0]

It still looks like an outlier. The Tories are on an upswing, but we'll see how the polls look on Monday.

Still, it doesn't suggest a large Tory minority at this point, and that spells trouble for how exactly they would survive a Throne Speech.

I think it show the Tories a few points back of where they were at this point in the 2011 election........hard not to survive a Throne Speech with a majority.

[ToadBrother]

I think it show the Tories a few points back of where they were at this point in the 2011 election........hard not to survive a Throne Speech with a majority.

If they get a majority. Trying to claim that the 2011 election can tell us anything about a three way race is, to say the least, not going to lead you to good sound results. Nor is trying to invoke what may or may not be a temporary bump. If the Tories are actually recovering, I think more than a few days of positive polling is needed, and an actual change in the trend is required.

[cybercoma]

It goes on to suggest that Harper's drowning of Syrian children on Turkish beaches has given him a bump:

Harper has lost 25% of his support from election day according to that.

[waldo]

It still looks like an outlier.

the history of EKOS polling shows a fairly consistent positioning for the NDP versus CPC... any increase by either party typically reflects upon a loss from the other. Where EKOS distinguishes itself (aside from its rather unique methodology) from other polling company results is the relatively lower numbers it always presents for the Liberal party.

[Derek 2.0]

Harper has lost 25% of his support from election day according to that.

Sure, and it puts him now where he was a month prior to the 2011 election, low 30s and trending upwards....