Federal Election Polls

[Springer]

Oh, they punished the Wild Rose, too, albeit not so bad that the party actually picked up some seats. All the floor crossers got thumped.

The next election is the Wild Rose's to lose.

[Vancouver King]

Oh, they punished the Wild Rose, too, albeit not so bad that the party actually picked up some seats. All the floor crossers got thumped.

The next election is the Wild Rose's to lose.

Could you move this rant to where it belongs - the Alberta section of the Provincial forum.

[Smallc]

Things are looking very good for the Liberals...although they don't want to peak too early:

• NDP: 32.7 per cent (+2.3 per cent from last week)

• Conservatives: 26.2 per cent (-2.3 per cent from last week)

• Liberals: 30.8 per cent (+0.6 per cent from last week)

http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/election/conservatives-slip-to-third-as-ndp-liberals-enter-two-way-race-nanos-poll-1.2552109

This is the third poll to show the Conservatives in third place.

Edited September 8, 2015 by Smallc

[ToadBrother]

Things are looking very good for the Liberals...although they don't want to peak too early:

• NDP: 32.7 per cent (+2.3 per cent from last week)

• Conservatives: 26.2 per cent (-2.3 per cent from last week)

• Liberals: 30.8 per cent (+0.6 per cent from last week)

http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/election/conservatives-slip-to-third-as-ndp-liberals-enter-two-way-race-nanos-poll-1.2552109

This is the third poll to show the Conservatives in third place.

It sure is beginning to look like they have a serious problem, and it can't just be glossed over with "All the undecideds are going to vote Tory."

[Vancouver King]

Things are looking very good for the Liberals...although they don't want to peak too early:

• NDP: 32.7 per cent (+2.3 per cent from last week)

• Conservatives: 26.2 per cent (-2.3 per cent from last week)

• Liberals: 30.8 per cent (+0.6 per cent from last week)

http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/election/conservatives-slip-to-third-as-ndp-liberals-enter-two-way-race-nanos-poll-1.2552109

This is the third poll to show the Conservatives in third place.

You will recall it was Nanos recently measuring relatively high support for Conservatives. Whatever he saw, it is now gone and like virtually all other respected pollsters, now sees the CPC trending lower.

We are now about 2-3 weeks away from the first big call of the campaign - certain defeat for Harpers Conservatives.

[ReeferMadness]

You will recall it was Nanos recently measuring relatively high support for Conservatives. Whatever he saw, it is now gone and like virtually all other respected pollsters, now sees the CPC trending lower.

We are now about 2-3 weeks away from the first big call of the campaign - certain defeat for Harpers Conservatives.

The only poll that matters is the election.

[Smallc]

The only poll that matters is the election.

That's very true. Based on the voter potential for each party, there are 5-6 outcomes possible at this point.

Edited September 8, 2015 by Smallc

[waldo]

This is the third poll to show the Conservatives in third place.

with the CBC (aggregate) Poll Tracker updated to include those 3 latest 3rd place Harper Conservative poll finishes:

.

[cybercoma]

This is the third poll to show the Conservatives in third place.

I never thought I would see Conservative numbers consistently below 30. That's cutting into their 30% base that was assumed in previous political analysis.

[eyeball]

I never thought I would see Conservative numbers consistently below 30. That's cutting into their 30% base that was assumed in previous political analysis.

Maybe the base is finally dying off in sufficient numbers to be noticeable.

[cybercoma]

Maybe the base is finally dying off in sufficient numbers to be noticeable.

Don't worry. There's a crop of youth who are devoutly Conservative too.

[ToadBrother]

I never thought I would see Conservative numbers consistently below 30. That's cutting into their 30% base that was assumed in previous political analysis.

Part of the problem here is that the "30% Tory base" was a fiction. Yes, there are certainly 30% of Canadians who will tend to vote Conservative, but tending to vote Conservative and being Conservative are two different things. Frankly, I think the Tory base is not really any larger than any of the other major parties' bases; probably somewhere in the 20%-25% range, made up of party members and like-minded travelers.

The Tories have built up a lot of myths about themselves, with a good deal of help from the opposition parties and the media that made the Tories seem like unassailable fortress, when of course, it was never anything of the kind.

[ToadBrother]

The only poll that matters is the election.

If that was true, political parties wouldn't put so much money and effort into internal polls.

Polls aren't perfect, and unless they're done with great frequency they can often miss significant changes in voter intentions in the final days of an election (this is certainly what happened with the BC polls in 2013), but they are certainly useful for tracking significant trends. We still have a lot of highway between now and election day, but it's hard to ignore the fact that the Tories have not at any point in the last year been in a position to command a majority government, and there were always significant signs of weakness. These polls tell us nothing that hasn't been observed for several months now.

[Evening Star]

I had been convinced that this election would confirm a realignment similar to what happened in the UK in the 1920s, when the once-dominant Liberal Party turned into a boutique third party, leaving a contest between a conservative party and a labour party. If this continues, though, we might end up with a liberal vs labour contest.

[Evening Star]

I wonder if the NDP will try to shift a little back to the left to distinguish themselves.

[ToadBrother]

I wonder if the NDP will try to shift a little back to the left to distinguish themselves.

I doubt it. They'll keep pushing the way they're going. The faltering of the Tory campaign isn't ideological.

[cybercoma]

Given the problems with Conservative candidates in the much-needed Toronto area and the handling of the Syrian refugee crisis, the Conservatives will likely be hugging the 20% mark in next week's polls.

Trudeau made a big EI announcement, which is of huge importance to coastal industries in the Atlantic provinces and the battleground of BC. The Liberals will likely pull alongside the NDP in BC next week and further their lead in the Atlantic provinces. They'll also be most likely to pick up the CPC's pieces in Toronto.

Prediction for next week: 2% slip for the CPC, 3% gain for LPC, 1% drop for NDP. Liberals start to take the lead from the NDP.

[Vancouver King]

Given the problems with Conservative candidates in the much-needed Toronto area and the handling of the Syrian refugee crisis, the Conservatives will likely be hugging the 20% mark in next week's polls.

Trudeau made a big EI announcement, which is of huge importance to coastal industries in the Atlantic provinces and the battleground of BC. The Liberals will likely pull alongside the NDP in BC next week and further their lead in the Atlantic provinces. They'll also be most likely to pick up the CPC's pieces in Toronto.

Prediction for next week: 2% slip for the CPC, 3% gain for LPC, 1% drop for NDP. Liberals start to take the lead from the NDP.

I wouldn't wager against any of the above although the Liberals up 3 in a week seems a tad optimistic. Most observers are now fixated at an all-important decreasing Tory number. For legions of voters, myself included, the only priority is Harper's defeat. Once that becomes a certainty we can worry about which left of center option will form gov't.

If the campaign polls resemble your predicted trends on Oct. 19th, I will happily stroke my ballot for the Liberals.

Edited September 9, 2015 by Vancouver King

[cybercoma]

Nanos nightly polling already has the LPC past the NDP.

http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/election/nanos-nightly-tracking-tight-race-between-liberals-and-ndp-continues-1.2554083?hootPostID=f4fd4bf822d80880f7f7e5b9bdcf7cf2

[Evening Star]

Yeah, the NDP has been trying really hard to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

[cybercoma]

The NDP is getting crushed in Ontario. I guarantee that's a result of Mulcair's aerospace announcement for Québec. With all the jobs lost in Ontario, this is going to be seen as the NDP slapping Ontario in the face and pandering to Québec. Bad move from Mulcair, considering he already has nearly unwavering support from QC. If Mulcair doesn't do something to get Ontario on his side, the NDP is done.

[cybercoma]

Nanos's overnight numbers has the NDP at 17.9% in Ontario. That's going to be a hell of a situation to turn around. With a little more than a month to go, I'm not sure if they can, save for something dramatic happening.

[Evening Star]

Well, there's this (although it sounds much less exciting to me): http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-election-2015-mulcair-automotive-jobs-ontario-1.3220598

Edited September 9, 2015 by Evening Star

[waldo]

Nanos's overnight numbers has the NDP at 17.9% in Ontario. That's going to be a hell of a situation to turn around. With a little more than a month to go, I'm not sure if they can, save for something dramatic happening.

couldn't figure out why Mulcair trotted out the coalition theme again yesterday... perhaps this has something to do with it.

[Smallc]

I won't be sad if the Liberals win. I just wish they had a different leader.