Federal Election Polls

[Smallc]

And, now we come back to reality...

What reality? That Nanos seems to be delayed by a couple days in comparison to everyone else? Their rolling poll is skewing results.

[Shady]

What reality? That Nanos seems to be delayed by a couple days in comparison to everyone else? Their rolling poll is skewing results.

The polls are starting to settle back to their usual numbers. I expect the NDP to be back down to low 20s now that they've already dropped 3% from their supposed high of 30. Now at 27, this begins their inevitable decline.

[Smallc]

The polls are starting to settle back to their usual numbers.

What are you talking about? That poll shows an upward trend, not a downward one. You can't compare EKOS numbers to Nanos ones, you simply look at the trend....which is good for the NDP and bad for everyone else.

Edited April 27, 2011 by Smallc

[Rick]

And, now we come back to reality...

Yes, according to the latest Angus Reid Poll reality is that the orange wave continues to grow.

OTTAWA — A “seismic shift” among voters has vaulted the NDP to second place, just five points behind the Conservative front-runners while the Liberals are falling further behind, a new poll reveals.

With less than a week to go in the campaign, Jack Layton is riding a wave of popular support for the NDP not seen in two decades, said Jaideep Mukerji, vice-president of Angus Reid Public Opinion.

A new Angus Reid poll done in partnership with the Toronto Star and La Presse puts Stephen Harper’s Conservatives at 35 per cent, the NDP close behind at 30 per cent, the Liberals at 22 per cent, the Bloc Québécois at 7 per cent and the Green Party at 5 per cent

Source

[Shady]

What are you talking about? That poll shows an upward trend, not a downward one. You can't compare EKOS numbers to Nanos ones, you simply look at the trend....which is good for the NDP and bad for everyone else.

So going from 30 to 27 is an upward trend? Come'on man, stop carrying water for them. You're just spinning the usual political bs in the face of reality.

[Rick]

So going from 30 to 27 is an upward trend? Come'on man, stop carrying water for them. You're just spinning the usual political bs in the face of reality.

Clearly you don't know what you're talking about Shady.

The very latest Angus Reid poll also shows the NDP at 30...not 27 like you're suggesting.

That would make it, multiple polling firms now that shows those numbers...

[Smallc]

So going from 30 to 27 is an upward trend? Come'on man, stop carrying water for them. You're just spinning the usual political bs in the face of reality.

The 30 came from EKOS and ARS. The 27 came from Nanos. All are upward trends. Look at the numbers.

[Wild Bill]

With the upcoming Royal wedding set to dominate the air waves I doubt there's going to be much shift over the next few days.

In other words I concur.

Do you really think so, BT? "Dominate the airwaves"?

Myself, I'd rather watch paint dry! Or Ben Mulroney!

Sorry, didn't mean to be redundant...

[Shady]

The 30 came from EKOS and ARS. The 27 came from Nanos. All are upward trends. Look at the numbers.

It's going to be fun to tell you that I told you so, in another week.

[Smallc]

It's going to be fun to tell you that I told you so, in another week.

What, exactly, are you going to tell me? Even if the NDP were to 'only' get 25% of the vote, it would be an historic shift in Canadian politics.

[BubberMiley]

It's going to be fun to tell you that I told you so, in another week.

It'll be funner to see you disappear.

[Keepitsimple]

I'll be voting Conservative...but I'm absolutely thrilled that the NDP are doing so terrific in Quebec. As Harper said, ANY increase in the Federalist vote is good for Canada. Perhaps Canadians will look at Quebec a little differently. If you draw the conclusion that a true separatist will NEVER vote for a Federalist party, then the high-water mark for separatists is closer to 25% - not the 40% that has supposedly been shown over thew past 25 years. With a Conservative minority, Quebec NDP MPs would wield far more influence than the BLOC. The Conservatives will never cooperate with the BLOC - but they could be influenced by the NDP. Go NDP, go (in Quebec).

[Harry]

And, now we come back to reality...

Nanos Research

April 26, 2011

CPC: 37.8

LPC: 22.9

NDP: 27.8

BQ: 5.8

GRN: 4.7

http://www.nanosresearch.com/election2011/20110426-BallotE.pdf

NDP leads in Quebec, Conservatives comfortably way ahead in the rest of the country. Jack does have a very real chance of being leader of the opposition, but he's nowhere near the 100 seat level. Conservatives are still on the edge of a majority (MOE: 3.1), and exactly where Nanos had them five days ago. Dippers still have reason to be happy, Tories can stop worrying. Liberals? Yikes! I would not want to be in that war room right now.

I know it's quite discouraging thinking you were going to get a majority and now you don't even know if you will get a minority any more, but to try and twist things around like you are doing is quite pathetic.

At some point these polls had to converge and now we see Nanos Research moving in the direction of the EKOS and Angus Reid polls. Here is what Nanos actually showed, and what Bryan purposely left out with their polling today.

Tories lead by 10, NDP second and trending up

Cons - 37.8%, Down 1.4%

NDP - 27.8%, Up 4.2% (NDP gains 5.6% on Cons)

Libs - 22.9%, down 2.7%

Bloc - 5.8%, Down 0.7%

http://www.nanosresearch.com/election2011/20110426-BallotE.pdf

Edited April 27, 2011 by Harry

[Harry]

Most Recent polling:

Date / Pollster / Cons / NDP / LIbs / Bloc

Apr 26 / Nanos / 37.8% / 27.8% / 22.9% / 5.8%

Apr 26 / Angus R / 35% / 30% / 22% / 5% NDP within 5% of 1st place

Apr 25 / EKOS / 33.9% / 27.9% / 24% / 6%

Apr 24 / EKOS / 33.7% / 28% / 23.7% / 6.2%

Apr 24 / Nanos / 39.2% / 23.6% / 25.6% /

Apr 21 / Envi / 39% / 25% / 22% /

Apr 20 / Ipsos / 43% / 24% / 21% / 6%

Apr 16 / Angus R / 36% / 25% / 25% /

Edited April 27, 2011 by Harry

[Harry]

All I can say is thank goodness for Layton.

C'est maintenant Harper contre Layton

Cela ne garantit pas des sièges, mais ça donne une base militante et organisationnelle.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/chroniqueurs/vincent-marissal/201104/27/01-4393677-cest-maintenant-harper-contre-layton.php?utm_categorieinterne=trafficdrivers&utm_contenuinterne=cyberpresse_opinions_5362_section_ECRAN1POS1

[wyly]

Angus Reid poll april 27th cpc-35 ndp-30 lpc-22.. those are minority numbers for conservatives...

in quebec ndp-38% bloc 27%... a couple of points more and it could be a massive wave of orange...

[ToadBrother]

Angus Reid poll april 27th cpc-35 ndp-30 lpc-22.. those are minority numbers for conservatives...

in quebec ndp-38% bloc 27%... a couple of points more and it could be a massive wave of orange...

I think we're unlikely to see any reversals now, with less than a week to go. It's pretty obvious that the Liberals are going to trade places with the NDP, and it may very well mean that Harper is going to extend the olive branch to the Liberals to keep the socialist hoards from seizing Ottawa. Now that would be the most delicious irony of all.

[wyly]

I think we're unlikely to see any reversals now, with less than a week to go. It's pretty obvious that the Liberals are going to trade places with the NDP, and it may very well mean that Harper is going to extend the olive branch to the Liberals to keep the socialist hoards from seizing Ottawa. Now that would be the most delicious irony of all.

and that's how a minority is supposed to behave, conciliation and compromise not antagonizing and contempt...I can't see the liberals getting in bed with the conservatives their polices are to similar to the ndp's, doing so they risk any credibility they have left...it could come down to a bidding war which party offers the liberals the most...

[ToadBrother]

and that's how a minority is supposed to behave, conciliation and compromise not antagonizing and contempt...I can't see the liberals getting in bed with the conservatives their polices are to similar to the ndp's, doing so they risk any credibility they have left...it could come down to a bidding war which party offers the liberals the most...

Then let the bidding begin. Having the Tories and NDP sending coalition love-letters to the Liberals would destroy the Tory's "coalitions are bad" line once and for all.

[wyly]

Then let the bidding begin. Having the Tories and NDP sending coalition love-letters to the Liberals would destroy the Tory's "coalitions are bad" line once and for all.

it may not be a coalition but inclusion of the liberal education passport into policy...

[Harry]

Finally even people like Dobbin have clued into what is taking place.

Layton's Surge and the Intentional Citizen

Most Canadians' values long have aligned with New Democrats. Is this an ah ha! moment?

If the NDP surge is real, it may represent the breaking of an historic contradiction in Canadian politics. One of the largely unspoken features of Canadian political culture is the gap between the majority's stated social and community values and their voting patterns. The CBC's fatally flawed Vote Compass notwithstanding (it's virtually impossible to get a result suggesting your values line up with the NDP), years of polling and focus groups suggest that if there was a direct line between voting and values, the NDP would win every election, hands down.

Even though the NDP is skittish when it comes to talking about tax increases (rightfully anticipating a firestorm of media attacks), the fact is Canadians say they would support tax increases if they could be assured the money would be spent on things they want. And the things they want are, of course, essentially the list of things the NDP has always run on: Medicare, affordable post-secondary education, generous social assistance, human rights, genuine EI, eliminating poverty. You know the list -- if you are part of the 70 per cent majority, it is your list, too.

But people not engaged in the political process -- for whatever reason -- are easily dissuaded from believing their values are practical and just as easily persuaded that you can't trust government to act on their behalf. On the latter point, of course, there is a lot of evidence to back them up regarding governments in the past 20 years. Since the advent of "free trade", our governments have become un-governments, dedicated more to dismantling the activist state than enhancing or even maintaining it.

Canadians are progressive, say polls

http://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2011/04/25/LaytonSurge/

Edited April 27, 2011 by Harry

[ToadBrother]

it may not be a coalition but inclusion of the liberal education passport into policy...

I imagine the Liberals will want more than that as the price for bestowing their favours. Remember, the Liberals are going to want to set up a situation in which they can rebuild. They cannot afford another election for some time.

[wyly]

I imagine the Liberals will want more than that as the price for bestowing their favours. Remember, the Liberals are going to want to set up a situation in which they can rebuild. They cannot afford another election for some time.

cancelation of f35 which the ndp which the ndp has not demanded...increase in corporate tax which is a given...

[Wild Bill]

Then let the bidding begin. Having the Tories and NDP sending coalition love-letters to the Liberals would destroy the Tory's "coalitions are bad" line once and for all.

Not at all, TB! Despite the technicalities of the law, the only antipathy to a coalition in the minds of the typical voters is if it is made up of the losers!

If the Tories have more seats than anyone else but have to cut a deal then you're really just talking about an ordinary minority government, which Canadians are used to.

Now if the NDP and the Liberals each have less seats than the Tories but decide to band together, THAT might cause some waves but a regular minority? Nobody will care!

[ToadBrother]

Not at all, TB! Despite the technicalities of the law, the only antipathy to a coalition in the minds of the typical voters is if it is made up of the losers!

I keep hearing all of this, but I see precious little evidence of it. A Tory talking point is not public sentiment.

If the Tories have more seats than anyone else but have to cut a deal then you're really just talking about an ordinary minority government, which Canadians are used to.

That depends on the deal. If the deal includes cabinet posts, then it's a formal coalition. If it's a vote agreement, then it's an informal coalition.