Federal Election Polls

[angrypenguin]

Interesting fact about EKOS polling.

http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/category/ontario/

“Kudos needs to go to EKOS Research, the only firm to call two of the three main parties within two percentage points. In terms of the eventual outcome, their poll was probably the most informative, though they had the NDP too low.”

I can't seem to figure out what Nanos was polling, but until I read this, I always held Nanos polling to be of "higher" accuracy than EKOS.

Guess I was wrong.

Edited October 4, 2015 by angrypenguin

[cybercoma]

Interesting fact about EKOS polling.

http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/category/ontario/

“Kudos needs to go to EKOS Research, the only firm to call two of the three main parties within two percentage points. In terms of the eventual outcome, their poll was probably the most informative, though they had the NDP too low.”

I can't seem to figure out what Nanos was polling, but until I read this, I always held Nanos polling to be of "higher" accuracy than EKOS.

Guess I was wrong.

Same goes for the Alberta election.

http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2015/05/ekos-accurately-predicts-ndp-majority-victory-in-alberta/

Polling the Ontario election is a lot different beast than polling the nation on a federal election.

[angrypenguin]

Polling the Ontario election is a lot different beast than polling the nation on a federal election.

In what sense?

[CITIZEN_2015]

I can't seem to figure out what Nanos was polling, but until I read this, I always held Nanos polling to be of "higher" accuracy than EKOS.

Guess I was wrong.

EKOS poll is 5 days old. A lot has happened since September 29 including fading of niqab thing in the mind of voters and the reality given by Trudeau that niqab does not bring bread and butter to the tables of Canadians. Not to mention some fierce comments on barbaric cultural practices a couple of days ago by conservatives.. Nanos findings that Liberals are leading also echoed by Innovative Research (October 1st, liberals leading by 2 points) and Leger Marketing (September 30. Liberals leading by 2 points followed by Nanos October 2nd and third indicating a lead by Liberals again but double what shown by others (by 4 points).

Edited October 4, 2015 by CITIZEN_2015

[cybercoma]

I wouldn't be confident in a Liberal lead yet. The polls are extremely volatile. It's unclear who's ahead at this point, despite the overnight from Nanos looking very positive for the Liberals.

[ToadBrother]

I wouldn't be confident in a Liberal lead yet. The polls are extremely volatile. It's unclear who's ahead at this point, despite the overnight from Nanos looking very positive for the Liberals.

I agree. The other polls show a much closer race. I think Nanos is probably suggesting renewed Liberal strength, but I their rolling polling, while probably as good as any method over several days, strikes me as a poor indicator on any shorter time period.

I do think, however, the NDP are fading, but that's demonstrated by other polls.

[CITIZEN_2015]

Yes I agree too even though three different polls showing the Liberals in slight lead but as I mentioned there are others which indicated a large conservative lead not long time ago. I hope we see continued lead for Liberals in the polls in coming days by most if not all polls.

Liberal campaign ads should...............

In my view the Liberal ads should be directed to the dis-satisfy middle class which constitutes a large portion of Canadian population and address their issues. The ads should ask the middle class if they are better off today financially than they were 9 years ago? and then follow by a statement or promise by Trudeau that he is going to make it better for them. Those whose salaries are frozen and those whose rise in salaries haven't kept up with the huge increases in prices for everything other than electronics and computers. It should be directed to the jobless encouraging them to vote for a party which would try to created jobs for them by infrastructure spending. And it should be directed to students whose tuition fees have increased so much past decades that they have to pay back debt for years and decades after graduation. That is if they are lucky enough to find scarce jobs available under the conservatives. They should also point out loud and clear that now they are the only party who can stop the conservatives from forming another government to appeal to soft NDP voters.

Edited October 4, 2015 by CITIZEN_2015

[angrypenguin]

Yes I agree even though three different polls showing the Liberals in slight lead but as I mentioned there are others which indicated a large conservative lead not long time ago. I hope we see continued lead for Liberals in the polls in coming days by most if not all polls.

In my view the Liberal ads should be directed to the dis-satisfy middle class which constitutes a large portion of Canadian population and address their issues. The ads should ask the middle class if they are better off today financially than they were 9 years ago? and then follow by a statement or promise by Trudeau that he is going to make it better for them. Those who salaries are frozen and those whose salary raises haven't kept up with the huge increases in prices for everything other than electronics and computers. It should be directed to the jobless encouraging them to vote for a party which would try to created jobs for them by infrastructure spending. And it should be directed to students whose tuition fees has increased so much past decades that they have to pay back debt for years and decades after graduation. That is if they are lucky enough to find scarce jobs under Harper.

So basically whore out our economy. I shake my head in disappointment. Edited October 4, 2015 by angrypenguin

[GostHacked]

My prediction :

We will see a Liberal minority government with the Conservatives as the official opposition maybe forming a coalition with the NDP.

This is just my guess, as I would prefer the Green party to take the reigns for a while.

[cybercoma]

I do think, however, the NDP are fading, but that's demonstrated by other polls.

Right. I wouldn't argue with that. The NDP are well behind now, although still polling above their finish in the last election.

[CITIZEN_2015]

So basically whore out our economy. I shake my head in disappointment.

Ask the jobless how good is the economy or the graduating students who find it so hard to find jobs in their fields or the seniors who have to cut in essentials like food and medicine to pay for rising costs or those who live on social assistance or millions of children who live below poverty and the list goes on. May be everything is great for you and me but millions others who are suffering financially are our fellow Canadians too. But if you prefer to put your head in the sand and deny the facts and figures and feel everyone is financially well and happy then that is your right to be as the song says "don't worry and be happy".

Edited October 4, 2015 by CITIZEN_2015

[angrypenguin]

Ask the jobless how good is the economy or the graduating students who find it so hard to find jobs in their fields or the seniors who have to cut in essentials like food and medicine to pay for rising costs or those who live on social assistance or millions of children who live below poverty and the list goes on. May be everything is great for you and me but millions others who are suffering financially are our fellow Canadians too. But if you prefer to put your head in the sand and deny the facts and figures and feel everyone is financially well and happy then that is your right to be as the song says "don't worry and be happy".

I don't give 2 cents for those in need. If you can't afford something it's not my problem. It's called entitlement when one thinks they deserve something.

[ToadBrother]

My prediction :

We will see a Liberal minority government with the Conservatives as the official opposition maybe forming a coalition with the NDP.

This is just my guess, as I would prefer the Green party to take the reigns for a while.

That's the most likely scenario at the moment, though I think it could just as easily go the other way, with a Tory minority. Mind you, for the Tories, if they can't get a really big minority, I can't see how they will survive the first Throne Speech.

[ToadBrother]

I don't give 2 cents for those in need. If you can't afford something it's not my problem. It's called entitlement when one thinks they deserve something.

You should care, in at least the sense that poverty has an enormous number of hidden costs that you end up paying for.

Noblesse oblige, my friend. Pay now, or pay a lot more later.

[Bryan]

I'm not humouring the conversation anymore.

Probably for the best. Your understanding is so limited, you don't seem capable of having an intelligent conversation about it.

[ToadBrother]

Probably for the best. Your understanding is so limited, you don't seem capable of having an intelligent conversation about it.

This from a guy who has demonstrated an astonishing ignorance of our system of government.

[Bryan]

My prediction :

We will see a Liberal minority government with the Conservatives as the official opposition maybe forming a coalition with the NDP.

This is just my guess, as I would prefer the Green party to take the reigns for a while.

Yikes. I doubt many Conservatives would want to see a coalition with the NDP. Short term gain for long term pain.

[Bryan]

This from a guy who has demonstrated an astonishing ignorance of our system of government.

Were you looking in the mirror when you wrote that?

[angrypenguin]

I brought this up yesterday. http://voxpoplabs.com/the-signal-canada-2015/

Check out the comments. They have answered some of the questions we had on this very thread!!

So we were talking about the poll methodology of that pollster. Here's their follow up!

--

Thanks for your thoughts about the model and its potential problems. I address some of your concerns in turn below.

In the model, there's actually no assumption of bias because the bias parameters are estimated from the data themselves (relative to the industry average), and, moreover, these parameters are not static: they are re-estimated each time a new poll is released. If there is no systematic difference in vote intention estimates between polling organizations, the bias parameters will all be roughly 0 for every pollster.

With respect to the new ridings, Statistics Canada has taken data from the 2011 polling station results and transposed them to the new riding boundaries. Although this is less than ideal, it provides a decent approximation to where results will stand in the upcoming election.

The loss and gain of incumbents can be modelled at the riding level, so one can account for the fact that an incumbent has stepped down who had previously enjoyed an incumbent bump in support. This bump will naturally be lost for his or her successor, which, again, can be modelled.

The model only partially relies on past polling estimates as compared to past election results: I put a "prior" on the bias terms related to differences between the polls and the result in the past election(s), such that these biases are pulled toward zero. This is done because it's expected that pollsters will 1) modify their methods to generate better results, and 2) each election is only a single data point, with error of its own. Note that the alternative to this would be to assume that the polling industry average bias is zero _or_ that bias from previous elections will carry through fully to the upcoming election. The model we use is a compromise between these two extremes, essentially taking a weighted average of the assumption of 0 bias and of the estimates of bias using data from past election results and polls.

I hope this clears up some of your concerns, but if you have any more questions please let us know!

--

Edited October 4, 2015 by angrypenguin

[CITIZEN_2015]

I don't give 2 cents for those in need. If you can't afford something it's not my problem. It's called entitlement when one thinks they deserve something.

Wow!!!. Thank you for clarifying this.

I was suggesting a fact based campaign strategy for Liberals which millions of lives have been and will be likely affected similar to the niqab strategy which unlike the economy affected only two people and adopted by conservatives as their strategy in order to rise in the polls.

Edited October 5, 2015 by CITIZEN_2015

[Evening Star]

Right. I wouldn't argue with that. The NDP are well behind now, although still polling above their finish in the last election.

According to Wikipedia, the NDP got 30.63% of the popular vote in 2011, which is more than what the polls are showing for them now. Do you mean in terms of seat count?

[angrypenguin]

The NDP surge for the last election happened around this time. Just saying, I would not discount them just yet.

[waldo]

The NDP surge for the last election happened around this time. Just saying, I would not discount them just yet.

your apparently favoured 'Signal' aggregate result sure has... relative to say... the CBC Poll Tracker. Signal projects the NDP @ 82 seats (average); Poll Tracker has the NDP @ 100 seats (average).

[angrypenguin]

your apparently favoured 'Signal' aggregate result sure has... relative to say... the CBC Poll Tracker. Signal projects the NDP @ 82 seats (average); Poll Tracker has the NDP @ 100 seats (average).

Huh? I was not referring to Signal in regards to the NDP surge. I was referring to the EKOS poll.

http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2015/10/conservatives-hold-lead-in-slightly-narrowed-race/

Take a look at the bottom chart.

[Evening Star]

The NDP surge for the last election happened around this time. Just saying, I would not discount them just yet.

Yeah, I've been thinking the same thing.