Will the Harper Government Survive This Week?

[August1991]

To stay in power, Harper only needs the support of one opposition party. Now, I happen to think that Harper would like an election now but he's not prepared to call it himself.

I also happen to think Ignatieff will vote against the government regardless. For better or worse, Ignatieff is willing to pull the plug and face the electorate despite the polls.

So, that leaves Duceppe and Layton.

Duceppe has said that if the budget has no mention of the GST compensation, he would stop reading and vote against it. Flaherty has said that the Quebec GST agreement is being finalized but will not be in the budget. Of course, Duceppe could use another pretext but the GST would probably make it hard for Duceppe to oppose the government.

La marque bloquiste est toujours la même, la défense des «intérêts» du Québec. Gilles Duceppe appuiera le budget conservateur si le Québec reçoit son dû, avec une longue liste d'épicerie de 5 milliards de dollars, qui remonte même aux dépenses de la crise du verglas en 1998. Elle comporte un élément nouveau, les 2,2 milliards pour l'harmonisation de la TVQ, qui se réglera sans doute sans l'aide du Bloc québécois.

Alain Dubuc

[i frankly think that Duceppe would love both an election and a majority Tory government. He is unlikely to support Harper when Harper is doing so well in the polls, and the Conservatives are doing realtively poorly in Quebec City.]

And that leaves Layton.

Tuesday’s Conservative budget will include new measures to encourage young doctors and nurses to work in Canada’s rural and remote communities and will renew the EcoEnergy retrofit program – two items that are on the NDP’s pre-budget wish list.

On the eve of the 2011 budget, the government is offering new details as to what the document will include.

G&M

The NDP also wants a cut in home heating oil taxes (Flaherty says that's a no go) and money for seniors (Flaherty says he may do something).

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After a long conversation with a friend in Ontario who knows more about Layton and the NDP than I do, I have come away with the impression that Layton will support the budget - or at least abstain. The NDP will vote against the government on ethical issues but these will not be tests of confidence.

What do others think?

[ToadBrother]

After a long conversation with a friend in Ontario who knows more about Layton and the NDP than I do, I have come away with the impression that Layton will support the budget - or at least abstain. The NDP will vote against the government on ethical issues but these will not be tests of confidence.

What do others think?

I think the NDP is in a tough spot. If it was just the budget that required their support, I could see them propping up the Government. But there's also that pesky matter of the contempt motion, which will likely have a confidence rider attached to it. Since the NDP has been such a big part of this whole privilege process, to see Layton ordering his caucus, despite one of its members being among the most prominent defenders of the privilege attacks on the Government, would be pretty humiliating.

[Keepitsimple]

It seems that things are aligning for the NDP to support the Government....if the budget contains help for Seniors (which the Conservatives have probably already planned) and a bit of EI help, I think the NDP will go along. The wild card in all this is what Ignatieff will do - or what the party will insist he do - if the government survives for at least another year. He could very well resign - or be forced to resign - after all, the guy will be 64 in May. That will give Jack time to recover and could lay the groundwork for the Conservatives to pull the plug when the Liberals are in disarray sometime next year.....and the NDP may be in position to pick up some Liberal votes. All speculation but I think we can all see that Ignatieff won't be around for too long as an opposition leader.

[Topaz]

I think the NDP would against the government because IF Harper is voted out and the Libs get a minority, Jack can get what he wants from the Liberals, he doesn't need Harper. Accountability is more important then what Harper can give and most of the NDP are supporting contempt. BUT since the contempt part has to be voted on, Harper can stall it with Bills so it can't come up for a vote. Anything is possible with this government, they could be in contempt to try and stop the contempt from passing in the House.

[ToadBrother]

I think the NDP would against the government because IF Harper is voted out and the Libs get a minority, Jack can get what he wants from the Liberals, he doesn't need Harper. Accountability is more important then what Harper can give and most of the NDP are supporting contempt. BUT since the contempt part has to be voted on, Harper can stall it with Bills so it can't come up for a vote. Anything is possible with this government, they could be in contempt to try and stop the contempt from passing in the House.

Whatever happens, a Liberal minority strikes me as pretty much impossible. They can try for a Coalition, but if Harper gets as strong a majority as he did in 2008, I don't see the GG refusing him the office of PM.

[Evening Star]

I think the NDP is in a tough spot. If it was just the budget that required their support, I could see them propping up the Government. But there's also that pesky matter of the contempt motion, which will likely have a confidence rider attached to it. Since the NDP has been such a big part of this whole privilege process, to see Layton ordering his caucus, despite one of its members being among the most prominent defenders of the privilege attacks on the Government, would be pretty humiliating.

It is tough... They could vote against the government and just hope/expect that the resulting election will not produce a majority government for anyone. That could potentially still leave them with the balance of power, allowing them to demand what they want from the next government's budget. The optics might not be so great though if they bring down a government that actually offers something substantial in the areas of medical student loan forgiveness, eco retrofit funding, help for seniors, and R&D (as the CBC's leak seems to suggest).

[August1991]

I think the NDP is in a tough spot. If it was just the budget that required their support, I could see them propping up the Government. But there's also that pesky matter of the contempt motion, which will likely have a confidence rider attached to it.

It would be hard for the NDP to support the budget but then bring down the government on ethics. I think rather that the NDP will find a way to make the contempt vote a non-confidence issue.

In effect, I think the NDP just doesn't want an election now. (Incidentally, I saw a large billboard advertising the NDP near Montreal on the weekend. They have started their media buys so maybe I'm wrong.)

All speculation but I think we can all see that Ignatieff won't be around for too long as an opposition leader.

I don't see Ignatieff resigning before an election.

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IMV, Harper is the hard one to read here. I thought that he would make it hard for anyone to support his budget so that he could go to an election.

These budget concessions go a little too far but seem typical of "nickel & dime Harper". He always offers these little special interest gimmicks that complicate fiscal/social policy.

For example, what is one to think of the $600 GAINS increase for single seniors? What kind of incentive is that for pre-retirement people to save?

Edited March 22, 2011 by August1991

[Molly]

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IMV, Harper is the hard one to read here. I thought that he would make it hard for anyone to support his budget so that he could go to an election.

I'm willing to bet that was the original plan, but the growing pile of ethics issues put a touch of frostbite to the toes.

[GWiz]

IMV, Harper is the hard one to read here. I thought that he would make it hard for anyone to support his budget so that he could go to an election.

That CPC 7% drop from majority territory to minority territory and the scandals changed that big TIME...

[madmax]

I looked at the poll results and have to laugh.

I don't think there are 5 New Democrats on this forum.

[GWiz]

I'm willing to bet that was the original plan, but the growing pile of ethics issues put a touch of frostbite to the toes.

I think we think a lot alike (see my prev. post same TIME as yours)...

[August1991]

That CPC 7% drop from majority territory to minority territory and the scandals changed that big TIME...

One poll result (Decima) is hardly enough to draw a firm conclusion. Overall, the Tories are in a good position for an election now.

I'm willing to bet that was the original plan, but the growing pile of ethics issues put a touch of frostbite to the toes.

The ethics/contempt issue is only of concern to political junkies and the Harper-haters.

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If neither the NDP nor the Bloc supports the budget, then we go to an election on spending priorities. If neither the NDP nor the Bloc supports the government in a motion of confidence over ethics/contempt, then we go to an election in which the Tories can claim to have presented an acceptable budget.

This is a classic Harper gambit.

I think that the NDP will support the budget and find a way to admonish the government on ethics/contempt without this testing confidence.

Politics is the art of the pretzel.

[August1991]

I looked at the poll results and have to laugh.

I don't think there are 5 New Democrats on this forum.

One doesn't have to be a New Democrat to surmise what Layton will do. (And BTW, this forum has arguably the broadest spectrum of political opinion of any English forum in Canada.)

[GWiz]

One doesn't have to be a New Democrat to surmise what Layton will do. (And BTW, this forum has arguably the broadest spectrum of political opinion of any English forum in Canada).

This I can agree with...

As to the demographic of this forum, while I believe you may be correct, does not mean that all sides are equally or well represented...

[Battletoads]

The NDP has rejected the Conservative budget. It's looks as if an election is inevitable, unless Harper partners up with his friends in the Bloc.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2011/03/22/pol-budget-main.html

Edited March 23, 2011 by Battletoads

[capricorn]

Duceppe said the Bloc will propose an amendment, probably to include the HST compensation that is presently in negotiations. IMO the Conservatives will not support such an amendment.

[guyser]

.Budjet

A new promo like the Bud train ?

[Molly]

Or any other. They had lots of chance to make a deal with someone, but didn't. The only way one can take that is to believe they didn't want to (even if they did want to appear to be trying).

[Battletoads]

A new promo like the Bud train ?

Something like that...

[Scotty]

Or any other. They had lots of chance to make a deal with someone, but didn't. The only way one can take that is to believe they didn't want to (even if they did want to appear to be trying).

Or... they decided that what the others wanted wasn't something they could support. The Liberals made it clear they would vote against ANY budget, no matter what it contained. The BQ tried to blackmail them. So that only left the NDP. They added some stuff in there to make the NDP happy, but clearly not enough.

Still seems a pointless waste of $300 million dollars given all the polls point to pretty much the same thing, another minority conservative government - unless the opposition is willing to form another Gang of Three and try to govern between them.

[Moonbox]

Still seems a pointless waste of $300 million dollars given all the polls point to pretty much the same thing, another minority conservative government - unless the opposition is willing to form another Gang of Three and try to govern between them.

This, I believe, will be the end of probably 4 different leader's careers. Harper will be out without a majority and it couldn't come sooner considering how far he's abandoned his principles. Layton will be out because he's nothing but hot air and bluster and he's done nothing in several election attempts. Elizabeth May will be done because she's just a rude slob and Ignatieff will be out because he's a total lame duck.

[William Ashley]

Looks as if an election is inevitable, unless Harper partners up with his friends in the Bloc.

The block want 5 billion

They are polling 39% -

even though harpers Trust rating dropped from 99% to 83% over this past week. (clearly canada is smoking too much crack to have given the man a 99% trust rating to begin with - either that or the fear effect is starting to disapate and people are actually being honest.) You know the whole reason the west says Sadam got 100% of the vote because people were affraid of having their tounges cut out -- this is like the Harperites who saboutoge, cut break lines, and withdrawl funding of anyone who speaks out against him and his cronies. Also an alarming number of accidental deaths such as former top liberal aid. We already know they conduct illegal lobbies and lie on record. Those 10's of billions in contracts and 30 billion sole sourced US defence contract is another thing that is highly unethical since they agreed to the deal without having the funds budgetted.

That 16 point drop in Trust only amounted to a 2% drop in polling.

Edited March 22, 2011 by William Ashley

[GWiz]

The block want 5 billion

They are polling 39% -

even though harpers Trust rating dropped from 99% to 83% over this past week. (clearly canada is smoking too much crack to have given the man a 99% trust rating to begin with - either that or the fear effect is starting to disapate and people are actually being honest.) You know the whole reason the west says Sadam got 100% of the vote because people were affraid of having their tounges cut out -- this is like the Harperites who saboutoge, cut break lines, and withdrawl funding of anyone who speaks out against him and his cronies. Also an alarming number of accidental deaths such as former top liberal aid. We already know they conduct illegal lobbies and lie on record. Those 10's of billions in contracts and 30 billion sole sourced US defence contract is another thing that is highly unethical since they agreed to the deal without having the funds budgetted.

That 16 point drop in Trust only amounted to a 2% drop in polling.

Saw an interesting poll about the economy today... It showed the CPC with a strong lead in regards to the economy at 31% over the Liberal's 23% (NDP 16%)... BUT the most telling aspect of the poll was that 25% polled as unsure as to who would be best to handle Canada's economy...

[Topaz]

Flaherty says there will be no amends... take it or leave it.

[BornAlbertan]

At this point, despite being a conservative, I could give a damn who gets in so long as it is a majority.

At least then we could have a government that can:

1. Complete a mandate

2. Do what they say they're going to do (provided they are honest enough to do it...which I gotta say, despite what some say about Harper, at least he stuck to his word on the GST...unlike those before him).

3. No constant bitching in parliament about nothing...and getting exactly that accomplished.

Either way, we get screwed in this country with high taxes, failing infrastructure and over-praised healthcare. I would at least like something to show for it without going to the voting booth every 2 years.