Will the Harper Government Survive This Week?

[Vancouver King]

The block want 5 billion

That 16 point drop in Trust only amounted to a 2% drop in polling.

How soon before Tories poll mid 30s - $7 billion for banks and oil companies but $50 per month for poorest seniors. Election? Bring it on.

[Evening Star]

Still seems a pointless waste of $300 million dollars given all the polls point to pretty much the same thing, another minority conservative government - unless the opposition is willing to form another Gang of Three and try to govern between them.

A lot can happen during a campaign. Can't really expect the opposition parties to support something for the sake of propping up the government. Having said that, the budget actually sounded OK to me, despite my reservations about tax cuts!

[capricorn]

Can't really expect the opposition parties to support something for the sake of propping up the government. Having said that, the budget actually sounded OK to me, despite my reservations about tax cuts!

You mean tax cuts for the corporate sector? Those have already been approved by the House. I'm curious how the Liberals could campaign against these tax cuts when they already voted in favour of them. It's interesting that John Manley, now CEO of the Canadian Council of Chief Executives, said that in spite of the last round of corporate tax cuts, corporate tax revenue to the government actually increased.

[capricorn]

On Power Play tonight, Ignatieff put on his pundit hat. He commented that from an NDP perspective, there wasn't much there for that party. Defending Jack's decision. Hmmm.

[punked]

On Power Play tonight, Ignatieff put on his pundit hat. He commented that from an NDP perspective, there wasn't much there for that party. Defending Jack's decision. Hmmm.

He is tired of getting from both sides and doesn't want to fight the NDP until he needs to steal their votes in the last 2 weeks.

[August1991]

Duceppe said the Bloc will propose an amendment, probably to include the HST compensation that is presently in negotiations. IMO the Conservatives will not support such an amendment.

I agree. It ain't gonna happen.

OTOH, I wouldn't be surprised if during the campaign more details of the GST-PST harmonization become available.

-----

We're going to have a spring election and the only remaining question is what date: May 2nd or May 9th.

Edited March 23, 2011 by August1991

[Evening Star]

You mean tax cuts for the corporate sector? Those have already been approved by the House.

I know. I can still have reservations about them.

[Topaz]

I think the NDP and the Liberals could work together and get a lot more done for Canada and Canadians than Harper has ever done.

[August1991]

I think the NDP and the Liberals could work together and get a lot more done for Canada and Canadians than Harper has ever done.

And if they got the Bloc to join them, they would be guaranteed to have a majority!

I suspect that we will hear alot of your idea in the coming weeks, Topaz.

“The leader of the opposition is simply trying to seek reason to manufacture a coalition among himself, the NDP and Bloc Québécois,” Harper said during question period prior to the budget being released. “The fact of the matter is that our focus is the economy.”

Toronto Star

[August1991]

Kudos to the three posters who rightly predicted that the NDP would not support the government.

I was surprised how quickly Layton dismissed the budget. I thought that he would give time to hear his caucus but I guess Layton knows them well enough to know what they would say.

IMV, Flaherty's budget was a decent compromise for a minority Conservative government. The next budget will not be so generous and I suspect that the only measure to survive will be the $600 for seniors.

[August1991]

As to the demographic of this forum, while I believe you may be correct, does not mean that all sides are equally or well represented...

Political viewpoints on this forum vary. It is the regional viewpoints that matter most.

Since it is based in the west, the forum has a better regional balance but it is only an English-Canadian viewpoint.

[Evening Star]

IMV, Flaherty's budget was a decent compromise for a minority Conservative government. The next budget will not be so generous and I suspect that the only measure to survive will be the $600 for seniors.

But, assuming we get a similar Con minority, why would the NDP need to support such a budget the second time? A minority government still needs to govern with some Opposition support.

[capricorn]

Kudos to the three posters who rightly predicted that the NDP would not support the government.

I voted Jack would cave on the budget. My reasoning was that I thought the opposition had consulted and agreed to table and adopt a motion of contempt of Parliament to ensure the government fell on an ethics front. Jack could have then said, "Yes, the budget met some of our demands and we'll continue to work for additional measures to benefit poor and middle class Canadians. But we cannot in all conscience support this government for its contemptuous disregard for the will of Parliament". During a campaign, Jack could have boasted about the goodies he extracted for them from the government. Something along that line.

[buttercup]

I agree. It ain't gonna happen.

OTOH, I wouldn't be surprised if during the campaign more details of the GST-PST harmonization become available.

-----

We're going to have a spring election and the only remaining question is what date: May 2nd or May 9th.

[ToadBrother]

I voted Jack would cave on the budget. My reasoning was that I thought the opposition had consulted and agreed to table and adopt a motion of contempt of Parliament to ensure the government fell on an ethics front. Jack could have then said, "Yes, the budget met some of our demands and we'll continue to work for additional measures to benefit poor and middle class Canadians. But we cannot in all conscience support this government for its contemptuous disregard for the will of Parliament". During a campaign, Jack could have boasted about the goodies he extracted for them from the government. Something along that line.

That was my thought as well. The Opposition, I suppose, knows what it's doing, though frankly I think this is an election by momentum rather than by choice. Unless things radically change, this looks to be a repeat of the 2008 election, which means the same people are going to be staring at each from across the aisle. I think everyone knows this, but such as the acrimony in the House these days that they'd all jump out of an airplane without parachutes just to show the other guy they meant business.

Maybe Harper can pull off his majority, but I think the ethics and transparency issues that have dogged him for the last couple of years are going to make that unlikely. What I'm wondering is who will be the leaders of the parties in a year. If Iggy can't at least improve the Liberal seat count, I think he's toast. I agree with some other posters here that Layton will probably retire. Duceppe, I don't know, I think even if he wanted to go, he's the Bloc's best asset right now and he'll have a lot of people wanting to stay on. Harper's a tough one. There's been talk in the past that if he couldn't deliver a majority with a third election he'd either quit or be pushed out of the airplane, and yet the most obvious successor; Peter MacKay has been pretty heavily wounded over the Afghan detainee issue. Jason Kenney's name is often mentioned but I wonder whether the Conservatives will want to put a guy who is so partisan he makes Harper look like a fair-minded middle of the road guy in the driver's seat. I wonder if Harper will survive simply because no one in the Conservative Party is keen to try out a new set of tires right now.

[William Ashley]

All three opposition parties have rejected the budget - so unless there is a dramatic change between now and the next 48 hours... ELECTION!

[Bryan]

But, assuming we get a similar Con minority, why would the NDP need to support such a budget the second time? A minority government still needs to govern with some Opposition support.

I'm not so sure that is what we are seeing unfold here though. The Conservatives have the support (voters, volunteers, and financial donors) to keep doing this same dance as long as the opposition wants it. Can the NDP and the Liberals afford to go to the polls over and over again? If we get another Harper minority, the opposition might have no choice but to vote in support of the government no matter what gets put in front of them. If they were unable to go to another election, what other choice would they have?

[Evening Star]

I'm not so sure that is what we are seeing unfold here though. The Conservatives have the support (voters, volunteers, and financial donors) to keep doing this same dance as long as the opposition wants it. Can the NDP and the Liberals afford to go to the polls over and over again? If we get another Harper minority, the opposition might have no choice but to vote in support of the government no matter what gets put in front of them. If they were unable to go to another election, what other choice would they have?

Some sort of coalition, or government led by the party with the second-most seats, would be an alternative.

[BornAlbertan]

Some sort of coalition, or government led by the party with the second-most seats, would be an alternative.

If that were to happen the parties involved would be dealing with major fallout. Remember what happened the last time they were seriously contemplating that? To hell with the proroguement...I am talking about the "constitutional crisis" it would cause and let's not forget the public outcry. I never saw such a resentful sentiment for Western separation like I did when that was going on. It wasn't just conservatives either...and I won't deny the fact I was more than pissed myself.

[Evening Star]

Why would that precipitate a constitutional crisis? We had something similar in Ontario from 1985-1987.

[William Ashley]

If that were to happen the parties involved would be dealing with major fallout.

This is stupid talk. Take your threats elsewhere, if you can't support democracy you don't belong in Canada.

Coalitions are real and reperesent more of the people than a minority with less seats. Grow up already. The less single party rule that exists, the more power to the people, and the less People who try to control via tyrany and totalitarianism have the means of power.

FREE THE PEOPLE! END HARPER!

Oh no the totalitarian fascists will get upset. Back to Nuremburg for you!

Yeah cause the PC and Reform never formed a Coalition right? Give me a break nutzo.

You might as well file for the name change to Republican now rather than later.

Edited March 23, 2011 by William Ashley

[BornAlbertan]

Why would that precipitate a constitutional crisis? We had something similar in Ontario from 1985-1987.

Uhm...based on what I said, use your imagination

I am not talking about what the parties would be doing, I am talking about the people. But in hindsight, I shouldn't have separated the public reaction from the the crisis I menioned....as it really was the crisis if you will.

Being in Ontario, unless you were here you could not begin to fathom the anger and talk of separation.

[BornAlbertan]

This is stupid talk. Take your threats elsewhere, if you can't support democracy you don't belong in Canada.

Coalitions are real and reperesent more of the people than a minority with less seats. Grow up already. The less single party rule that exists, the more power to the people, and the less People who try to control via tyrany and totalitarianism have the means of power.

FREE THE PEOPLE! END HARPER!

Oh no the totalitarian fascists will get upset. Back to Nuremburg for you!

Yeah cause the PC and Reform never formed a Coalition right? Give me a break nutzo.

You might as well file for the name change to Republican now rather than later.

Wow...I am so glad we have benefit of having the "tolerant" left in this country. I say something based on what I previously witnessed and I am being told I am "threatening"....being told I "don't belong in Canada" and being told to "grow up"...and then to be called a nutzo?!

Wow...if I was a a murderer or a baby diddler I would get better treatment than being from Alberta in this country by the left wingers.

Edited March 23, 2011 by BornAlbertan

[bloodyminded]

Wow...I am so glad we have benefit of having the "tolerant" left in this country. I say something based on what I previously witnessed and I am being told I am "threatening"....being told I "don't belong in Canada" and being told to "grow up"...and then to be called a nutzo?!

Wow...if I was a a murderer or a baby diddler I would get better treatment than being from Alberta in this country by the left wingers.

As one of the resident lefty-loons on this forum, I can assure you that William does not speak for the rest of us.

And let's be honest: it's not that you're an Albertan, and therefore are suffering awful "treatment" by sinister "left wingers." It's an anonymous political debate forum. Have you read any of the right wing insults and attacks here? They're legion...and yet I don't somehow feel victimized by the evil right wingers.

[youshouldknowbetter]

This, I believe, will be the end of probably 4 different leader's careers. Harper will be out without a majority and it couldn't come sooner considering how far he's abandoned his principles. Layton will be out because he's nothing but hot air and bluster and he's done nothing in several election attempts. Elizabeth May will be done because she's just a rude slob and Ignatieff will be out because he's a total lame duck.

That's a good point. This election will see the turnover of at least 3 leaders. If Harper can't produce a majority: Out. If Ignatieff loses: out. Layton is sick and I still wonder why he wants an election when his party will lose seats: out. Not sure about Duceppe because he seems to be holding his own. Elizabeth May: Who cares?

We still have no clue who Harper's successor might be, which is really the most fascinating point in Canadian politics these days. 3 elections, 1 loss, 2 minorities, similar prospects in the pending election and no one seems to be the heir apparent?