Will the Government fall before the budget?

[betsy]

Pundits are saying the Liberals are going to try to bring down the government possibly on Mar 21, the day before the bduget is announced. They'll try to come up with a non-confidence motion. The Liberals cannot let the budget be announced if they want to have an election....since the budget allegedly has good things for seniors, among other things. The Liberals cannot have themselves seen as voting against those goodies.

Some say Layton won't go with the Liberals on this. It is expected that Layton will support Harper.

What do you think?

[nicky10013]

Pundits are saying the Liberals are going to try to bring down the government possibly on Mar 21, the day before the bduget is announced. They'll try to come up with a non-confidence motion. The Liberals cannot let the budget be announced if they want to have an election....since the budget allegedly has good things for seniors, among other things. The Liberals cannot have themselves seen as voting against those goodies.

Some say Layton won't go with the Liberals on this. It is expected that Layton will support Harper.

What do you think?

I know for a fact that it's the 21st. It's all up to to the NDP now.

edit: unless Harper calls a snap election sometime in the week running up to the 21st.

Edited March 12, 2011 by nicky10013

[ToadBrother]

I know for a fact that it's the 21st. It's all up to to the NDP now.

edit: unless Harper calls a snap election sometime in the week running up to the 21st.

Well Harper could take the initiative, but then he doesn't have the budget to wave around either. At the moment, if the NDP have the guts, this is strategically the very best time to do it. Wait until the Tories release the budget, and they've given the Government the ultimate bully pulpit.

Of course, the Tories could give the NDP some goodies to take home and avoid an election. While I'm not sure Harper wants an election, it's pretty clear that a lot of Tories do, so maybe whether the 21st or earlier, it's inevitable. I was saying even a week or two ago that it wasn't likely, but now I think Parliament is just a steam train racing towards the cliff.

[nicky10013]

Well Harper could take the initiative, but then he doesn't have the budget to wave around either. At the moment, if the NDP have the guts, this is strategically the very best time to do it. Wait until the Tories release the budget, and they've given the Government the ultimate bully pulpit.

Of course, the Tories could give the NDP some goodies to take home and avoid an election. While I'm not sure Harper wants an election, it's pretty clear that a lot of Tories do, so maybe whether the 21st or earlier, it's inevitable. I was saying even a week or two ago that it wasn't likely, but now I think Parliament is just a steam train racing towards the cliff.

Whether he gets to deliver the budget to parliament or not, it's what Harper will be running on. I don't think in the end who ends up triggering the election or why will end up being the ballot question. If the opposition brings down the government on corruption charges then that could end up being a story that runs a few days and who knows where the momentum from that can go. Then again, Harper may think there's no chance of that happening. We'll see what happen.

Edited March 12, 2011 by nicky10013

[betsy]

Too risky for Harper to call the election. The voters will turn on him.

If all Opposition Parties got together and defeat the government....Harper can say that the Liberals never wanted to make Parliament work, that it's all an opportunistic move. That, plus the economy will make for a powerful campaign, considering how badly Ignatieff is deemed as a leader in the first place.

The only thing is to survive from today until the 22nd without any more scandals happening.

Layton, on the other hand is not too keen on an election I think. He could lose more seats as the left will try to oust Harper by moving to the Liberals.

Mind you, Ekos pollster said that the Liberal Party is actually not taking a lot of NDP supporters. It's between the Conservatives and the Liberals that are moving about....except that more Liberal supporters move towards the Conservatives instead of the other way around.

Edited March 12, 2011 by betsy

[nicky10013]

Too risky for Harper to call the election. The voters will turn on him.

If all Opposition Parties got together and defeat the government....Harper can say that the Liberals never wanted to make Parliament work, that it's all an opportunistic move. That, plus the economy will make for a powerful campaign, considering how badly Ignatieff is deemed as a leader in the first place.

The only thing is to survive from today until the 22nd without any more scandals happening.

It doesn't matter who triggers the election. THe opposition might try to blame him, but it won't stick because it never has before. Harper called the election in 2008 pretty much out of the blue. How badly did it hurt him? The story over who called the election is a one day thing.

[William Ashley]

Pundits are saying the Liberals are going to try to bring down the government possibly on Mar 21, the day before the bduget is announced. They'll try to come up with a non-confidence motion. The Liberals cannot let the budget be announced if they want to have an election....since the budget allegedly has good things for seniors, among other things. The Liberals cannot have themselves seen as voting against those goodies.

Some say Layton won't go with the Liberals on this. It is expected that Layton will support Harper.

What do you think?

I don't see why Layton would have confidence in the Government as it doesn't intend to support Laytons budget requests in full. I would pull the plug if I were Layton, or atleast allow a "free vote" --- this would potentially mean that it wouldn't happen - but I think the NDP will only be a worse position as time goes on because the Liberals (and their catholic members for instance" would be incline to repay Layton in not voting non confidence the day before.

It is almost a weasle out. Give a little room for it.

The NDP is prepared for an election - if they don't do it now they can sit and wait but if the budget goes ahead - that is billions of dollars in coroprate tax cuts - a large chance of 15% departmental cuts everywhere (except the PMO of course) - this means reduced service - if there is one thing to know about the consesrvative government don't even give them a mm because they will turn it into a mile.

Also most action plan dollars went to "pay for entrance" facilities and systems used largely for commeical traffic. They got little from Actionplan, and th e program is also slated to end.

The pension reforms are being "face valued" by being useful for businesspeople but not average Canadians. Income benefits for seniors are geared towards seniors with money as far as I can tell. There is a little benefit but I highly doubt it was what layton had in mind - it to me seems more like a snuff than sincere.

But if they bring it down early harper would I think be in England the day before election day or someting... for the wedding.. he will be out of country during the campaign right near the end.

It is a free publicity oppoutunity for Harper but it depends of course how people view the monarchy and the PM's support for it in Canada.... Quebec might be hurt. the west might be hurt (although probably not to much effect) being pop associated could be a beenfit, but I think the logistics of it work against harper s camapgin in being out of country the day before election day or two days before when he should be peaking other places or even his own riding. The efect of jet lag and prep of course could impede his campaign effort a bit if he looks "ill" due to the time difference and wedding activities. It is also suprising both the GG and PM will be in attendence (I think I know why but Im not going to do a spoiler)

I think th earlier the better. It is still 6 weeks of campaigning.

Of course people may be burned out a bit the day after MAYDAY

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/May_Day

I think it would be favourable to Layton.

Although I think a Tuesday is better than a monday for a vote. Fridays are probably the best day for turnout.

Edited March 12, 2011 by William Ashley

[Saipan]

Ignatieff will go on a cliff again (almost), with lot of barking, but then turns back.

[DrGreenthumb]

The NDP will not prop up Harper.

[wyly]

21st on non-confidence or not at all...then the election will be about integrity of the harper regime and democracy...the harper regime has repeatedly lied to us and thumbed it's nose at our democratic system with a majority it will only be worse, much much worse...

you have to be suspicious of a political party when admitted fascists like Mr. Canada thinks the party's ideology and disregard for the rules of parliament are correct...

[Saipan]

the harper regime has repeatedly lied to us and thumbed it's nose at our democratic system

That was Chretien the liar.

[scribblet]

That was Chretien the liar.

I won't say what else he was for fearing of being reported to the RCMP LOL

I doubt Harper will call an election, there is no desire or passion for a federal election as according to the polls, the electors are okay with the status quo. If the opposition thinks that polls look bad for them now, wait until they call an unnecessary election.

As I said, the outstanding group fomenting and goading on an election, is that cabal of unelected instigators and speculators in the Parliamentary Press Gallery and the CBC and CTV studios.

Not only that with 3 MPs retiring, unless they have people allready lined up, I don't see them scrambling to replace them that quickly.

Chuck Strahl has been seriously ill for some time, I'm surprised he's stayed on as long as he has.

[ToadBrother]

It doesn't matter who triggers the election. THe opposition might try to blame him, but it won't stick because it never has before. Harper called the election in 2008 pretty much out of the blue. How badly did it hurt him? The story over who called the election is a one day thing.

I don't think you can blame the Tories' failure to achieve a majority in 2008 on just the Tory election amendments.

[ToadBrother]

I doubt Harper will call an election, there is no desire or passion for a federal election as according to the polls, the electors are okay with the status quo. If the opposition thinks that polls look bad for them now, wait until they call an unnecessary election.

As I said, the outstanding group fomenting and goading on an election, is that cabal of unelected instigators and speculators in the Parliamentary Press Gallery and the CBC and CTV studios.

We're seeing some very clear signs that the Liberals, at least, are sitting on the ledge. The Bloc will happily go for it too, I think. The only people that I can tell that don't want an election are the Tories and the NDP, and the pressure on Layton from both sides must be enormous.

This is inherent in minority governments. Events often overtake strategy, and I think the repeated nailing of the government over privilege and ethics are going to lead to an election, whether anyone wants it or not.

And as to the press, well of course they want elections, elections being drama, selling advertising space. But I have some considerable doubt that the Press Gallery has any actual influence over what's going on.

[scribblet]

Maybe there should be more interest in the fact that the House has been hijacked by the opposition as they continue commandeering Parliament for their perceived grievances. All of which is geared towards bringing down the gov't so they can (they hope) regain power. That's all they care about, hijacking parliament for their own nefarious ends, they care not about the people or Canada.

[ToadBrother]

Maybe there should be more interest in the fact that the House has been hijacked by the opposition as they continue commandeering Parliament for their perceived grievances.

Perceived grievances, like, say, a government unconstitutionally trying to hide documents by inventing executive privilege where, in the three hundred years since the Bill of Rights, 1689, it has never existed?

Tell me, who is supreme, Government or Parliament?

All of which is geared towards bringing down the gov't so they can (they hope) regain power. That's all they care about, hijacking parliament for their own nefarious ends, they care not about the people or Canada.

Which is much better than violating constitutional precepts, no?

[jbg]

It is expected that Layton will support Harper.

What do you think?

I'm not a Canadian and know little about Canadian politics. That being said, I think the NDP would be insane to let the Liberals bring down the government. I doubt they'd do well in an election just now. And I suspect Layton is past his "best before" date.

[ToadBrother]

I'm not a Canadian and know little about Canadian politics. That being said, I think the NDP would be insane to let the Liberals bring down the government. I doubt they'd do well in an election just now. And I suspect Layton is past his "best before" date.

The NDP does indeed appear to be the only thing standing in the way of an election. I don't think the numbers are good enough for the Tories to risk an election, but Harper has thrown caution to the wind before. The risks for him are huge, however. If he triggers an election himself and he doesn't get a majority, he's likely done. So it may be that he'll put some sweets into the budget to keep Layton happy.

[jbg]

I don't think the numbers are good enough for the Tories to risk an election, but Harper has thrown caution to the wind before.

I also doubt he wants to go to the GG twice in a row. Maybe he won't put in sweets for the NDP and he may want to dare them to go along with the trigger pull. Query will the Bloc go along?

[capricorn]

Query will the Bloc go along?

I've been wondering about the Bloc's reversal of support for the F-35s. Until recently, the Bloc was gung-ho about the purchase due to Quebec's vibrant aerospace industry. Quebec firms would benefit greatly from the F-35 project so it made sense for the Bloc to support it going ahead. As we know, the Bloc's only interest is what is good for Quebec and this F-35 project is made to order for the province. And it's not like the cost would be borne by Quebec alone but by the ROC as well. Then suddenly, boom, they're against. It just doesn't make sense to me. The only thing I can think of is that the Bloc is positioning itself to vote non-confidence, whenever that vote comes. This is all supposition on my part but this reversal of support has me scratching my head.

Edited March 13, 2011 by capricorn

[Topaz]

Maybe there should be more interest in the fact that the House has been hijacked by the opposition as they continue commandeering Parliament for their perceived grievances. All of which is geared towards bringing down the gov't so they can (they hope) regain power. That's all they care about, hijacking parliament for their own nefarious ends, they care not about the people or Canada.

You have the right to your view but I say you are wrong about the hijacking! Do you watch QP, the debates, the committees meetings? The reason the opposition parties are doing a non-confidence vote is the Tories will not give over documents of the detainees, which was ordered by the Speaker,or the cost of the F-35, they appeared to have cheated on their 2006 advertising budget for that election, which is fraud, you have the Bev Oda problem, you have the reduction of corporate tax again down to 16%, which is 6 billions dollars, the 30 billion jets, need I go on? Its isn't about them, its about Canada and having an honest government which Harper said he would have. No wonder the Tory members are leaving!

[ToadBrother]

I also doubt he wants to go to the GG twice in a row. Maybe he won't put in sweets for the NDP and he may want to dare them to go along with the trigger pull. Query will the Bloc go along?

I think the Liberals and the Bloc have already decided.

[Saipan]

like, say, a government unconstitutionally trying to hide documents by inventing executive privilege

Yes, why are Liberals claiming "Cabinet Secret"?

[ToadBrother]

Yes, why are Liberals claiming "Cabinet Secret"?

Likely for the same reason the Tories have done it. Again we're back to the defense that because the previous guys were repugnant abusers of Parliament's rights, it's okay for the current guys to be repugnant abusers.

But the situation is not analogous. The Liberals had a majority in the Commons, so, as wrong as it might seem, in essence Parliament agreed with their dubious claims about cabinet secrets. Parliament is free to do that, but the flipside is that Parliament is also free not to do it. The current Parliament has decided not to accept the Government's explanation, as is Parliament's right, and that right is absolute. Parliament can be asked to avert its eyes, but it cannot be made to do so.

I know this is a little complex for you, but the fact is that a minority government, by the very fact that it is a minority, cannot expect to play by the same rules that a majority government does. In short, Parliament is the absolute boss of Government, and if Parliament decides it wants Government to produce documents, Government has no right to defy it (hence, the breaches of privilege). If Parliament decides it does not want to see the documents, then so be it. Certainly that was the tact taken during the world wars, when Parliaments both here and in the other parts of the Commonwealth gave cabinets much more leeway. But again, that was Parliament's choice.

Your argument is idiotic on the face of it. Maybe some day, rather than just being a mindless partisan cheerleader, you might actually try studying our system of government and why things are the way they are. The Crown has not enjoyed the rights the Conservatives insist it has in practice since Charles I was made lighter the weight his head, and constitutionally since the Bill of Rights, 1689. In fact, the whole bloody English Civil War was fought precisely because the King was making the identical arguments that the Tory government has made. A war was fought, the claims of executive privilege were expunged and that is, as they say, that.

Edited March 13, 2011 by ToadBrother

[William Ashley]

It appears Layton's position is deal or no deal.