wulf42 Posted February 26, 2011 Report Share Posted February 26, 2011 Should be an interesting election this time around! http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/article/945363--conservatives-looking-at-a-majority-new-poll-shows?bn=1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
betsy Posted February 26, 2011 Report Share Posted February 26, 2011 (edited) Should be an interesting election this time around! http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/article/945363--conservatives-looking-at-a-majority-new-poll-shows?bn=1 Sometime last week, three polls conducted by three popular pollsters showed that same result from The Star. Then, about a couple or three days ago, Ekos issued a poll that showed the Cons were down to 32%. Pundits cautioned they'd want to see other polls. Speculation was that the people got scared of a Cons majority. I'm thankful that isn't the case. That link you gave just made my day. Edited February 26, 2011 by betsy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToadBrother Posted February 26, 2011 Report Share Posted February 26, 2011 Should be an interesting election this time around! http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/article/945363--conservatives-looking-at-a-majority-new-poll-shows?bn=1 I'm still pretty dubious of it, but we'll see what the trend is. The Tories have skyrocketed before only to fall back down. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cybercoma Posted February 26, 2011 Report Share Posted February 26, 2011 These polls are only good for getting a general consensus of how Canadians as a whole feel about the political parties. This does not translate to seats in the House because of the First-Past-The-Post system. For instance, the NDP received 18.18% support on the day of the election, which gave them 37 seats. The Bloc Quebecois received 10.48% support, giving them 49 seats. The polls people cite when saying the Conservatives will get a majority are calculated based on popular support, which as you can see is only a small piece of the puzzle. Regionality plays another factor into the support. In Alberta, there are jurisdictions which give the Conservatives over 80% support. All those votes above and beyond what's needed to win the riding are meaningless when it comes to comparing popular vote with number of seats won (iow, whether there will be a majority or minority). While I don't think it's impossible for the Conservatives to get a majority, they're missing the most important piece of the puzzle that Mulroney had: Quebec. They did win a few more seats than expected in Quebec in the last election, but they will have to win many more to translate into a majority. The only other way it could be accomplished is if Ontario and BC become awash in Blue. Highly unlikely. My best prediction for the next election is more of the same, since nothing has really changed in politics. In fact, if anything, I would suspect possibly a weaker minority, regardless of the polling. Many ridings were very close red/blue, so I suspect some of the close races may go for the Liberals next time around, given the heavy criticism of the Conservatives as of late. In other words, polls are useless. The only polls that matter are the ones on election day. Unless pollsters start calculating support in terms of riding support, they are almost completely meaningless. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keepitsimple Posted February 26, 2011 Report Share Posted February 26, 2011 (edited) In The Star's print edition this morning, the front-page headline reads: Conservative Majority Looms: Poll Our friendly Liberal rag just HAD to use the term "looms", the definition of which is: Loom:1. To come into view as a massive, distorted, or indistinct image: "I faced the icons that loomed through the veil of incense" (Fergus M. Bordewich). See Synonyms at appear. 2. To appear to the mind in a magnified and threatening form: "Stalin looms over the whole human tragedy of 1930-1933" (Robert Conquest). 3. To seem imminent; impend: Revolution loomed but the aristocrats paid no heed. A distorted, threatening appearance of something, as through fog or darkness. Link: http://www.thefreedictionary.com/loom Edited February 26, 2011 by Keepitsimple Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smallc Posted February 26, 2011 Report Share Posted February 26, 2011 Your analysis of the polls doesn't seem to fit with that of polsters. There is no need to win many more or even any more seats in Quebec. With a few more seats in Ontario, BC, and the Atlantic provinces, the Conservatives will be over the line. The analysis of the Star's data also does say that the regional breakdown is in the Conservative's favour. It also has their support in Quebec at the same level as that of the Liberals, which may even translate into another seat or two there, at the expense of the Bloc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
betsy Posted February 26, 2011 Report Share Posted February 26, 2011 (edited) In other words, polls are useless. The only polls that matter are the ones on election day. Unless pollsters start calculating support in terms of riding support, they are almost completely meaningless. That's what some MPs say....but pundits/strategists agree that Nanos Poll accurately predicted the outcome of the previous election (and I think they also mentioned the other election before that). At Power and Politics (?) or Power Play (?), former Liberal Quebec MP Lisa Frulla cautioned pundits yesterday that in Quebec, although the Bloc is way up there in the polls....Conservatives still come second. Edited February 26, 2011 by betsy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cybercoma Posted February 26, 2011 Report Share Posted February 26, 2011 With a few more seats in Ontario, BC, and the Atlantic provinces, the Conservatives will be over the line.That's a big IF, that's all I'm saying. Many of the seats that the Conservatives won last time around were with a handful of votes. They would have to win every close call they had last election and then some. I just don't see that happening, but hey, anything's possible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smallc Posted February 26, 2011 Report Share Posted February 26, 2011 That's a big IF, that's all I'm saying. Many of the seats that the Conservatives won last time around were with a handful of votes. They would have to win every close call they had last election and then some. I just don't see that happening, but hey, anything's possible. With support levels what they are in Ontario (assuming that level holds) there's no way that the Conservatives can't finish with more seats. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
William Ashley Posted February 26, 2011 Report Share Posted February 26, 2011 With support levels what they are in Ontario (assuming that level holds) there's no way that the Conservatives can't finish with more seats. LIES. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smallc Posted February 26, 2011 Report Share Posted February 26, 2011 LIES. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battletoads Posted February 26, 2011 Report Share Posted February 26, 2011 Well its been nothing but a slow downward spiral so far, maybe with a majority the cons can turn that into a vertical dive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smallc Posted February 26, 2011 Report Share Posted February 26, 2011 Well its been nothing but a slow downward spiral so far, Based on what, exactly? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shakeyhands Posted February 26, 2011 Report Share Posted February 26, 2011 (edited) meh... I say bring it and let the chips fall where they may. I doubt very much the reality is what the polls are saying. Edited February 26, 2011 by Shakeyhands Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smallc Posted February 26, 2011 Report Share Posted February 26, 2011 I doubt very much the reality is what the polls are saying. I don't at all. The opposition is failing completely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keepitsimple Posted February 26, 2011 Report Share Posted February 26, 2011 meh... I say bring it and let the chips fall where they may. I doubt very much the reality is what the polls are saying. It may be much worse for the Liberals come an election. Ignatieff's horrible leadership appeal will keep many Liberals away from the polls completely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
William Ashley Posted February 26, 2011 Report Share Posted February 26, 2011 (edited) It may be much worse for the Liberals come an election. Ignatieff's horrible leadership appeal will keep many Liberals away from the polls completely. The liberals are stronger than ever they have a great leadership support structure and have policies to match. You are talking nonsense. Harper is no Fabio. Flabio maybe.. he is only good at convincing people with less intelligence to realize how poor his government is. Mr. Speaker- Debt debt debt debt debt DEBT DEBT DEBT DEBT Debt debt debt debt debt DEBT DEBT DEBT DEBT debt debt debt debt Debt Debt Debt Debt debt debt debt Debt! Would a member from the government care to respond? "Kevin page estimated that the final numbers would be just under $40 billion." Hey only 40 billion more of debt load this year. It is suprising a minority government can outspend all of Canada's 140 or so years of governments combined in 5 years. Even Mulrooney's. Edited February 27, 2011 by William Ashley Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smallc Posted February 26, 2011 Report Share Posted February 26, 2011 The liberals are stronger than ever they have a great leadership support structure and have policies to match. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saipan Posted February 26, 2011 Report Share Posted February 26, 2011 It is suprising a minority government can outspend all of Canada 140 or so years of governments combined in 5 years. Even Mulrooney's. 'Cause you don't know Liberals left the largest debt in history. And they had the GST for more than 12 years to suck on, as well as robbing E.I., National Defence, and pensions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Posc Student Posted February 26, 2011 Report Share Posted February 26, 2011 I don't think polls are useless at all but I don't think polls outside of a campaign are that important or are a good prediction of what will happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToadBrother Posted February 26, 2011 Report Share Posted February 26, 2011 meh... I say bring it and let the chips fall where they may. I doubt very much the reality is what the polls are saying. At the end of the day there's only one poll that counts. I'm not convinced we'll have a spring election, but if it's to be, then let's have it then. If the Tories win a majority, what will really happen is the complete sidelining of the Reform wing of the party as it is pushed into complete irrelevance. For a lot of people afraid of the social conservatives, I think they'll find that a majority government will gravitate very heavily to the center. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Weber Posted February 26, 2011 Report Share Posted February 26, 2011 At the end of the day there's only one poll that counts. I'm not convinced we'll have a spring election, but if it's to be, then let's have it then. If the Tories win a majority, what will really happen is the complete sidelining of the Reform wing of the party as it is pushed into complete irrelevance. For a lot of people afraid of the social conservatives, I think they'll find that a majority government will gravitate very heavily to the center. One could only hope,however,I'm not certain of that... I see alot of Ontario Harrisites in prominent positions of power in this Tory cabinet and I know what they would do in an unchecked majority scenario... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToadBrother Posted February 26, 2011 Report Share Posted February 26, 2011 One could only hope,however,I'm not certain of that... I see alot of Ontario Harrisites in prominent positions of power in this Tory cabinet and I know what they would do in an unchecked majority scenario... They would do whatever they were told to do. Harper is no more likely to let people have a free hand in a majority government than he would right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Weber Posted February 26, 2011 Report Share Posted February 26, 2011 (edited) They would do whatever they were told to do. Harper is no more likely to let people have a free hand in a majority government than he would right now. Yes...However,in an unchecked majority there is nothing forcing these folks from shifting to their natural ideoligical positions... Mr.Clement was called "Two-Tier Tony" at Queens Park when he was Minister of Health because he advocated for more privatization of the health care system.. Mr.Flaharty felt jailing the homeless was a compassionate thing to do... Mr.Baird is...well...Mr. Baird... Nevermind the Vic Toews of the world in that caucus... I'm suggesting that if one thinks this party has had power long enough that they may have moderated their positions,I think they might be mistaken... A leopard cannot change his/her spots.... Edited February 26, 2011 by Jack Weber Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToadBrother Posted February 26, 2011 Report Share Posted February 26, 2011 Yes...However,in an unchecked majority there is nothing forcing these folks from shifting to their natural ifeoligical positions... Mr.Clement was called "Two-Tier Tony" at Queens Park when he was Minister of Health because he advocated for more privatization of the health care system.. Mr.Flaharty felt jailing the homeless was a compassionate thing to do... Mr.Baird is...well...Mr. Baird... Nevermind the Vic Toews of the world in that caucus... I'm suggesting that if one thinks this party has had power long enough that they may have moderated their positions,I think they might be mistaken... A leopard cannot change his/her spots.... It's simple electoral logic. Swing too far to the right and they'll get one term in majority and then get trounced. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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