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Conservative Majority?


wulf42

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Gotcha, I misunderstood what you meant- govern as if they were a majority. And still agree, the only people that can afford an election are the Tories(in all ways) and the Bloc. It even looks like the Greens are vanishing, I rarely hear a peep from May and they need to win a seat or two to remain viable.

Edited by fellowtraveller
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Gotcha, I misunderstood what you meant- govern as if they were a majority. And still agree, the only people that can afford an election are the Tories(in all ways) and the Bloc. It even looks like the Greens are vanishing, I rarely hear a peep from May and they need to win a seat or two to remain viable.

May had her chance, and might even have got a seat if she had run in one of the friendlier ridings out in coastal BC, but she demonstrated both her arrogance and extraordinary stupidity by trying to run against Peter MacKay. For that, and the fact that the Greens didn't immediately turn around and throw her out after the last election, they've earned their seat in electoral oblivion.

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Let us not forget her hiring of Deputy leader Georges Laraque. Yeah, he was nabbed because he has some profile as a gentle giant former NHL player. There is no doubt that George is a passionate advocate for the things that move him, and a genuinely nice guy. But... he does not have the kind of profile that moves people to vote Green and lets face it, George is not the brighest bulb in the string. Bad choice.

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Regional results do matter when you have a party that garners huge numbers in several provinces like the Conservatives do. The Conservatives would likely win every seat in Alberta if they were at 50% so being at 64% only inflates their national number. Pollsters have said that they need about 42% to win a majority government.

No see you are marking a wrong assumption here. You assume we know no results from the last election. I know the results from the last election and the Cons already got 65% in Alberta they are saturated there. That means we have to assume the 6 point bump comes from every but Alberta and that is where the growth potential is. You see what I am saying? Because this poll is 5% more then the last election and I know the Cons will only get 65-68% in Alberta then every point above the 37 from the last election is coming from somewhere else. That means all those seats everywhere but Alberta that were close go blue this time meaning they get their extra 12 seats.

Again Anything above 40 nationally is a Con Majority the only time you need the regionals are when they are polling 36-40% then where they win matters.

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There it is the wind is at their backs. Cons at 43%, Libs 27%, NDP 13% cause that is a majority.

http://www.nationalpost.com/news/Tories+support+poll/4367919/story.html

Well this was certainly a short-lived majority. The CPC lead has now shrunk to a mere 8 points and they'll lose seats if these numbers hold up:

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/canada/breakingnews/tories-have-eight-point-lead-new-poll-suggests-117257048.html

Too bad that Ignatieff alone can't pull the plug on Harper. Let's see how much courage Layton has.

Harper does not want an election. If he fails one more time to win a majority, the more intelligent members of his own party will start looking for a new leader. Let's hope that next time CPC picks a fiscal conservative rather than a social conservative.

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Well this was certainly a short-lived majority. The CPC lead has now shrunk to a mere 8 points and they'll lose seats if these numbers hold up:

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/canada/breakingnews/tories-have-eight-point-lead-new-poll-suggests-117257048.html

Too bad that Ignatieff alone can't pull the plug on Harper. Let's see how much courage Layton has.

Harper does not want an election. If he fails one more time to win a majority, the more intelligent members of his own party will start looking for a new leader. Let's hope that next time CPC picks a fiscal conservative rather than a social conservative.

Wow that is a big difference.

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Wow that is a big difference.

If it holds, why is anyone shocked. Don't we go through this every six months, with the pundits declaring "An election is just around the corner!!!!", only to have the polling numbers shrink back.

We all should have seen this coming. The Tories themselves were saying their internal polling wasn't showing the stunning 40%+ results. They probably said that to manage their own members' expectations, when a relatively inoffensive budget comes out on March 22nd and nobody decides to pull the pin on the electoral grenade.

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I would point out today there was a poll of all the approval ratings of provincial governments. It seemed the Conservatives were all at the top, the NDP in the middle and the bottom three were the Liberals with the Ontario Liberals the lowest. Not a good sign.

I think you're wrong... Which provinces? Could you run through them please...

West to east preferably... Or post the link...

Manitoba yes (NDP on the way out - MB Hydro Lines issue, fed. Cons could lose 2-3 in Wpg. if NDP don't kill Libs off in close races south and west like before), but I'm not sure that applies to Saskatchewan (probably but fed. potash issue may hurt them federally), BC (HST issue Harper forced open races), Ontario (HST issue Harper forced open races), certainly not Quebec, Maritimes (spotty at best)...

just sayin'

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Again Anything above 40 nationally is a Con Majority the only time you need the regionals are when they are polling 36-40% then where they win matters.

I would still think that the numbers in Ontario matter alot, since Ontario and Quebec are both riding-rich, and Quebec is "otherwise unavailable".
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Only one of the last four had CPC above 40. You of course have no evidence to the contrary.

“What you’re seeing in the numbers is a continuation of a trend that started over the past two months,” said Ipsos Reid president Darrell Bricker on Tuesday.

39.7%

37.3 per cent

That wasn't my point. My point is that the last four polls have shown a strengthening of conservative support leading to the latest poll. This is evidence that it is not an anomoly but a trend.

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That wasn't my point. My point is that the last four polls have shown a strengthening of conservative support leading to the latest poll. This is evidence that it is not an anomoly but a trend.

No one is disputing your point. My point, which you appeared to contradict, is that only one recent poll has shown CPC at 40+ and headed for a majority. And the only poll which had CPC support at 40+ was followed by a poll which had CPC support back down to 36%.

Instead of presenting evidence contrary to my point, you merely changed your argument to a tangential point which relatively few people dispute.

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No one is disputing your point. My point, which you appeared to contradict, is that only one recent poll has shown CPC at 40+ and headed for a majority. And the only poll which had CPC support at 40+ was followed by a poll which had CPC support back down to 36%.

Instead of presenting evidence contrary to my point, you merely changed your argument to a tangential point which relatively few people dispute.

If you want to follow another tangetial path.. two polls, harris decima and Ipsos Ried show that the Consrvatives have a 43 and 44% following in Ontario...

And that is the game changer. Take Ontario and they have a majority...and 40% in Ontario will mean a near sweep of the province.

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I'm curious about the attack ads that the Conservatives run year-round. If they're in trouble for over-spending on campaigning, what do these ads fall under? Where is the money coming from? Why does it fall under elections spending? etc.

They fall under ads....no rules governing ads outside of an election. The NDP are free to advertise as many pointless referendums as they can, The Liberals are free to show that Ignatieff really does like Canada, now that he lives here.

The money comes from the same place as the other parties. From donations by supporters. No secret that tge conservatives have more supporters than any of the other parties.

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They fall under ads....no rules governing ads outside of an election. The NDP are free to advertise as many pointless referendums as they can, The Liberals are free to show that Ignatieff really does like Canada, now that he lives here.

The money comes from the same place as the other parties. From donations by supporters. No secret that tge conservatives have more supporters than any of the other parties.

Thanks for clearing that up. I'm kind of miffed about there being political ads run year-round regardless of the party that's running them though. It reminds me of wartime propaganda.

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Thanks for clearing that up. I'm kind of miffed about there being political ads run year-round regardless of the party that's running them though. It reminds me of wartime propaganda.

:D

Ad backlash?

"When your image improves, your performance improves. The converse is also true."

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