fellowtraveller Posted March 2, 2011 Report Posted March 2, 2011 (edited) Gotcha, I misunderstood what you meant- govern as if they were a majority. And still agree, the only people that can afford an election are the Tories(in all ways) and the Bloc. It even looks like the Greens are vanishing, I rarely hear a peep from May and they need to win a seat or two to remain viable. Edited March 2, 2011 by fellowtraveller Quote The government should do something.
ToadBrother Posted March 2, 2011 Report Posted March 2, 2011 Gotcha, I misunderstood what you meant- govern as if they were a majority. And still agree, the only people that can afford an election are the Tories(in all ways) and the Bloc. It even looks like the Greens are vanishing, I rarely hear a peep from May and they need to win a seat or two to remain viable. May had her chance, and might even have got a seat if she had run in one of the friendlier ridings out in coastal BC, but she demonstrated both her arrogance and extraordinary stupidity by trying to run against Peter MacKay. For that, and the fact that the Greens didn't immediately turn around and throw her out after the last election, they've earned their seat in electoral oblivion. Quote
fellowtraveller Posted March 2, 2011 Report Posted March 2, 2011 Let us not forget her hiring of Deputy leader Georges Laraque. Yeah, he was nabbed because he has some profile as a gentle giant former NHL player. There is no doubt that George is a passionate advocate for the things that move him, and a genuinely nice guy. But... he does not have the kind of profile that moves people to vote Green and lets face it, George is not the brighest bulb in the string. Bad choice. Quote The government should do something.
punked Posted March 2, 2011 Report Posted March 2, 2011 Regional results do matter when you have a party that garners huge numbers in several provinces like the Conservatives do. The Conservatives would likely win every seat in Alberta if they were at 50% so being at 64% only inflates their national number. Pollsters have said that they need about 42% to win a majority government. No see you are marking a wrong assumption here. You assume we know no results from the last election. I know the results from the last election and the Cons already got 65% in Alberta they are saturated there. That means we have to assume the 6 point bump comes from every but Alberta and that is where the growth potential is. You see what I am saying? Because this poll is 5% more then the last election and I know the Cons will only get 65-68% in Alberta then every point above the 37 from the last election is coming from somewhere else. That means all those seats everywhere but Alberta that were close go blue this time meaning they get their extra 12 seats. Again Anything above 40 nationally is a Con Majority the only time you need the regionals are when they are polling 36-40% then where they win matters. Quote
normanchateau Posted March 2, 2011 Report Posted March 2, 2011 There it is the wind is at their backs. Cons at 43%, Libs 27%, NDP 13% cause that is a majority. http://www.nationalpost.com/news/Tories+support+poll/4367919/story.html Well this was certainly a short-lived majority. The CPC lead has now shrunk to a mere 8 points and they'll lose seats if these numbers hold up: http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/canada/breakingnews/tories-have-eight-point-lead-new-poll-suggests-117257048.html Too bad that Ignatieff alone can't pull the plug on Harper. Let's see how much courage Layton has. Harper does not want an election. If he fails one more time to win a majority, the more intelligent members of his own party will start looking for a new leader. Let's hope that next time CPC picks a fiscal conservative rather than a social conservative. Quote
ToadBrother Posted March 2, 2011 Report Posted March 2, 2011 Well this was certainly a short-lived majority. The CPC lead has now shrunk to a mere 8 points and they'll lose seats if these numbers hold up: http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/canada/breakingnews/tories-have-eight-point-lead-new-poll-suggests-117257048.html It's like déjà vu all over again! Quote
punked Posted March 2, 2011 Report Posted March 2, 2011 Well this was certainly a short-lived majority. The CPC lead has now shrunk to a mere 8 points and they'll lose seats if these numbers hold up: http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/canada/breakingnews/tories-have-eight-point-lead-new-poll-suggests-117257048.html Too bad that Ignatieff alone can't pull the plug on Harper. Let's see how much courage Layton has. Harper does not want an election. If he fails one more time to win a majority, the more intelligent members of his own party will start looking for a new leader. Let's hope that next time CPC picks a fiscal conservative rather than a social conservative. Wow that is a big difference. Quote
ToadBrother Posted March 2, 2011 Report Posted March 2, 2011 Wow that is a big difference. If it holds, why is anyone shocked. Don't we go through this every six months, with the pundits declaring "An election is just around the corner!!!!", only to have the polling numbers shrink back. We all should have seen this coming. The Tories themselves were saying their internal polling wasn't showing the stunning 40%+ results. They probably said that to manage their own members' expectations, when a relatively inoffensive budget comes out on March 22nd and nobody decides to pull the pin on the electoral grenade. Quote
normanchateau Posted March 2, 2011 Report Posted March 2, 2011 Wow that is a big difference. I think that the 43% was the outlier. There will need to be multiple polls showing CPC at 40+ before the nightmare of a CPC majority becomes reality. Quote
GWiz Posted March 2, 2011 Report Posted March 2, 2011 Wow that is a big difference. Awww, take heart, the NDP went UP 2 points... Quote There are none so blind, deaf and dumb as those that fail to recognize, understand, and promote TRUTH...- GWiz
M.Dancer Posted March 2, 2011 Report Posted March 2, 2011 I think that the 43% was the outlier. There will need to be multiple polls showing CPC at 40+ before the nightmare of a CPC majority becomes reality. Multiple? Like the last 4? Quote RIGHT of SOME, LEFT of OTHERS If it is a choice between them and us, I choose us
punked Posted March 2, 2011 Report Posted March 2, 2011 I would point out today there was a poll of all the approval ratings of provincial governments. It seemed the Conservatives were all at the top, the NDP in the middle and the bottom three were the Liberals with the Ontario Liberals the lowest. Not a good sign. Quote
Jerry J. Fortin Posted March 2, 2011 Report Posted March 2, 2011 I would point out today there was a poll of all the approval ratings of provincial governments. It seemed the Conservatives were all at the top, the NDP in the middle and the bottom three were the Liberals with the Ontario Liberals the lowest. Not a good sign. Sign of what? Quote
punked Posted March 2, 2011 Report Posted March 2, 2011 Sign of what? Well from my prospective not a good sign for Canada I don't want Harper to have a majority. Sorry I should have made that clear the Conservative Premiers doing better then everyone else is great for Harper. Sorry that was not clear. Quote
GWiz Posted March 2, 2011 Report Posted March 2, 2011 I would point out today there was a poll of all the approval ratings of provincial governments. It seemed the Conservatives were all at the top, the NDP in the middle and the bottom three were the Liberals with the Ontario Liberals the lowest. Not a good sign. I think you're wrong... Which provinces? Could you run through them please... West to east preferably... Or post the link... Manitoba yes (NDP on the way out - MB Hydro Lines issue, fed. Cons could lose 2-3 in Wpg. if NDP don't kill Libs off in close races south and west like before), but I'm not sure that applies to Saskatchewan (probably but fed. potash issue may hurt them federally), BC (HST issue Harper forced open races), Ontario (HST issue Harper forced open races), certainly not Quebec, Maritimes (spotty at best)... just sayin' Quote There are none so blind, deaf and dumb as those that fail to recognize, understand, and promote TRUTH...- GWiz
jbg Posted March 2, 2011 Report Posted March 2, 2011 Again Anything above 40 nationally is a Con Majority the only time you need the regionals are when they are polling 36-40% then where they win matters. I would still think that the numbers in Ontario matter alot, since Ontario and Quebec are both riding-rich, and Quebec is "otherwise unavailable". Quote Free speech: "You can say what you want, but I don't have to lend you my megaphone." Always remember that when you are in the right you can afford to keep your temper, and when you are in the wrong you cannot afford to lose it. - J.J. Reynolds. Will the steps anyone is proposing to fight "climate change" reduce a single temperature, by a single degree, at a single location? The mantra of "world opinion" or the views of the "international community" betrays flabby and weak reasoning (link).
normanchateau Posted March 3, 2011 Report Posted March 3, 2011 Multiple? Like the last 4? Only one of the last four had CPC above 40. You of course have no evidence to the contrary. Quote
M.Dancer Posted March 3, 2011 Report Posted March 3, 2011 Only one of the last four had CPC above 40. You of course have no evidence to the contrary. “What you’re seeing in the numbers is a continuation of a trend that started over the past two months,” said Ipsos Reid president Darrell Bricker on Tuesday. 39.7% 37.3 per cent That wasn't my point. My point is that the last four polls have shown a strengthening of conservative support leading to the latest poll. This is evidence that it is not an anomoly but a trend. Quote RIGHT of SOME, LEFT of OTHERS If it is a choice between them and us, I choose us
cybercoma Posted March 3, 2011 Report Posted March 3, 2011 I'm curious about the attack ads that the Conservatives run year-round. If they're in trouble for over-spending on campaigning, what do these ads fall under? Where is the money coming from? Why does it fall under elections spending? etc. Quote
normanchateau Posted March 3, 2011 Report Posted March 3, 2011 That wasn't my point. My point is that the last four polls have shown a strengthening of conservative support leading to the latest poll. This is evidence that it is not an anomoly but a trend. No one is disputing your point. My point, which you appeared to contradict, is that only one recent poll has shown CPC at 40+ and headed for a majority. And the only poll which had CPC support at 40+ was followed by a poll which had CPC support back down to 36%. Instead of presenting evidence contrary to my point, you merely changed your argument to a tangential point which relatively few people dispute. Quote
Jerry J. Fortin Posted March 3, 2011 Report Posted March 3, 2011 I will suggest that the CPC will be very quiet for the next little while. This scandal will consume the public given the right push here and there. Its to Iggy's advantage to have it this way. Maybe he is not so dumb after all. Quote
M.Dancer Posted March 3, 2011 Report Posted March 3, 2011 No one is disputing your point. My point, which you appeared to contradict, is that only one recent poll has shown CPC at 40+ and headed for a majority. And the only poll which had CPC support at 40+ was followed by a poll which had CPC support back down to 36%. Instead of presenting evidence contrary to my point, you merely changed your argument to a tangential point which relatively few people dispute. If you want to follow another tangetial path.. two polls, harris decima and Ipsos Ried show that the Consrvatives have a 43 and 44% following in Ontario... And that is the game changer. Take Ontario and they have a majority...and 40% in Ontario will mean a near sweep of the province. Quote RIGHT of SOME, LEFT of OTHERS If it is a choice between them and us, I choose us
M.Dancer Posted March 3, 2011 Report Posted March 3, 2011 I'm curious about the attack ads that the Conservatives run year-round. If they're in trouble for over-spending on campaigning, what do these ads fall under? Where is the money coming from? Why does it fall under elections spending? etc. They fall under ads....no rules governing ads outside of an election. The NDP are free to advertise as many pointless referendums as they can, The Liberals are free to show that Ignatieff really does like Canada, now that he lives here. The money comes from the same place as the other parties. From donations by supporters. No secret that tge conservatives have more supporters than any of the other parties. Quote RIGHT of SOME, LEFT of OTHERS If it is a choice between them and us, I choose us
cybercoma Posted March 3, 2011 Report Posted March 3, 2011 They fall under ads....no rules governing ads outside of an election. The NDP are free to advertise as many pointless referendums as they can, The Liberals are free to show that Ignatieff really does like Canada, now that he lives here. The money comes from the same place as the other parties. From donations by supporters. No secret that tge conservatives have more supporters than any of the other parties. Thanks for clearing that up. I'm kind of miffed about there being political ads run year-round regardless of the party that's running them though. It reminds me of wartime propaganda. Quote
GWiz Posted March 3, 2011 Report Posted March 3, 2011 Thanks for clearing that up. I'm kind of miffed about there being political ads run year-round regardless of the party that's running them though. It reminds me of wartime propaganda. Ad backlash? "When your image improves, your performance improves. The converse is also true." Quote There are none so blind, deaf and dumb as those that fail to recognize, understand, and promote TRUTH...- GWiz
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