Global Economies in trouble.

Wild Bill · January 17, 2011

Thus: Logic is a delusion. You just said so yourself.

That's a non sequitur. IOW, it does NOT logically follow!

Unfortunately, I don't believe there is any possibility at all of ever making you understand that. So I won't even bother.

charter.rights · January 17, 2011

That's a non sequitur. IOW, it does NOT logically follow!

Unfortunately, I don't believe there is any possibility at all of ever making you understand that. So I won't even bother.

Yet that is where you prove that logic is a delusion. You can't see it so you discount it because it doesn't make sense to YOU.

Funny that someone else's logic can be faulty (according to YOUR delusional thinking) because in your perspective they don't have enough critical information to make a logical conclusion. Yet the basis you make this suggestion is based on your own faulty logic, because you cannot fathom the extent of knowledge or information the other used to come to their conclusion.

What I suggest, is that all logic is faulty, lacking sufficient information to reach conclusions and based on delusional thinking that you have all the information you need to reach a irrefutable opinion. That is wrong, just is all logic achieves nothing but a certification of your delusions (what you tell yourself is right and wrong) regardless of the actual situations.

Thus your best thinking tool is perception, since it uses your logic centres to project an outcome without attempting to certify any conclusion.

I realize your difficulty in grasping the insanity your logic is based on, and recognize that your conditioned thinking process threatens your fix on reality. That really is YOUR problem, not anyone else.

sharkman · January 17, 2011

Yeah, I know, eh? You sure got him there(not).

maple_leafs182 · January 18, 2011

What I mean by saying the current economic system doesn't take into consideration the carrying capacity of the earth is for example, we've developed an entire global economy that is dependent on oil for its daily operation. As if we are under the assumption that oil will always be there, we are depleting oil reserves which is driving up the price of oil which drives up the production cost of everything else. Once oil prices reach a certain point things become to expensive to produce and the entire economy will collapse, this isn't a sustainable economic structure. I am sure we will find alternatives be it electric or hydrogen but the transition period will be extremely painful with a lot of suffering.

Politics and the monetary based economy were developed in a time when the problems we faced were not technical. In our current society almost everything is technical, from transportation to production. So how can our problems possibly be solved by institutions that were not designed to solve technical problems. The institutions of politics and economics we use now may have been relevant in the past but that is not true today, as of right now they have surpassed the initial intended purpose of managing and distributing resources equally and ensuring prosperity and have become barriers to those goals.

What motivates people in the current economic system, it is the profit motive. If we face a problem where we can not make a profit from solving that problem, that problem will go unsolved. This is why thousands of people die a day from hunger or preventable diseases, it is not profitable to help them. You also have to realize profit doesn't only motivate people to work but it motivates them to kill, go to war, steal, kidnap, etc...

it is amazing what you can accomplish with a bunch of 24 year olds straight out of grad school that are willing to work double-triple time for peanuts because they have a passion for the job.

see, profit isn't the only thing that motivates people, ingenuity can be a very powerful motivator.

We need a system where profit isn't the primal motivating factor and human ingenuity is.

We should be giving scientist and engineers the problem of trying to develop a social and economic system that is sustainable, that provides the necessities of life to all its members of society within the carrying capacity of the earth.

Bonam · January 18, 2011

What I mean by saying the current economic system doesn't take into consideration the carrying capacity of the earth is for example, we've developed an entire global economy that is dependent on oil for its daily operation. As if we are under the assumption that oil will always be there, we are depleting oil reserves which is driving up the price of oil which drives up the production cost of everything else. Once oil prices reach a certain point things become to expensive to produce and the entire economy will collapse, this isn't a sustainable economic structure. I am sure we will find alternatives be it electric or hydrogen but the transition period will be extremely painful with a lot of suffering.

No. Alternate technologies already exist. As the price of oil rises, these alternates will become economically viable and we will transition from oil to the next technology. This process is already under way and will continue to gradually ramp up in the years to come while we still have plenty of oil. By the time oil shortages are a real issue, these technologies will be mature. There is no reason to believe there will be extreme pain and suffering in this process.

Politics and the monetary based economy were developed in a time when the problems we faced were not technical.

Not really. Any problem that you describe as "technical" was equally so in the past as it is now.

In our current society almost everything is technical, from transportation to production. So how can our problems possibly be solved by institutions that were not designed to solve technical problems.

By "institutions" I take it you refer to our economy. That is precisely the thing... the "institutions" don't need to solve any technical problems: individuals and private enterprises do, and the system is designed so that those who innovate and solve problems are rewarded.

The institutions of politics and economics we use now may have been relevant in the past but that is not true today, as of right now they have surpassed the initial intended purpose of managing and distributing resources equally and ensuring prosperity and have become barriers to those goals.

There were never any institutions in the West whose goal was "managing and distributing resources equally", don't know what you're talking about.

What motivates people in the current economic system, it is the profit motive. If we face a problem where we can not make a profit from solving that problem, that problem will go unsolved. This is why thousands of people die a day from hunger or preventable diseases, it is not profitable to help them.

We are not obligated to solve all the problems of people on the other side of the world. They can solve them themselves, or continue to live as they are, but it has nothing to do with us.

You also have to realize profit doesn't only motivate people to work but it motivates them to kill, go to war, steal, kidnap, etc...

We have laws against killing, stealing and kidnapping, those who commit those acts get punished if caught.

see, profit isn't the only thing that motivates people, ingenuity can be a very powerful motivator.
We need a system where profit isn't the primal motivating factor and human ingenuity is.

These are people who are just out of grad school and are excited to be working in a leading company in their field. By working a lot, they are gathering experience, impressing their supervisors and building a network, building up a solid resume, etc. In the end, whether they are caught up in the excitement of the moment or not, they are doing what they do because it will eventually lead to better jobs. And anyway, this phase only lasts a few years, soon after they get married and have kids and all of a sudden money matters and time off work matters.

We should be giving scientist and engineers the problem of trying to develop a social and economic system that is sustainable,

Scientists and engineers are good at a lot of things but social and economic systems are not our specialty. The general economic system we have now works fine because it leaves private enterprise mostly free to solve problems as it sees fit.

For all that you trash our existing economic system, you need to realize that since its inception it has led to inexorable technical progress that has immensely benefited billions of people already and will continue to benefit billions more.

Edited January 18, 2011 by Bonam

maple_leafs182 · January 21, 2011

No. Alternate technologies already exist. As the price of oil rises, these alternates will become economically viable and we will transition from oil to the next technology. This process is already under way and will continue to gradually ramp up in the years to come while we still have plenty of oil. By the time oil shortages are a real issue, these technologies will be mature. There is no reason to believe there will be extreme pain and suffering in this process.

Ya, that is a possibility, I just can't see the transition going that smoothly.

Not really. Any problem that you describe as "technical" was equally so in the past as it is now.

No they aren't, we have the means now to solve our problems threw the proper application of technology but we aren't doing that.

Our problems are no longer the same problems of the past.

We can supply and distribute food on a massive scale with minimal work to all people thanks to recent technological advances. We have satellites, computers, the internet, amongst many other amazing inventions and ideas. We have the ability to free man of labour so we came have more time to experience life.

I think I know what freedom is, it is time. The more time you have in order to do what you want to do, the more freedom you have.

What we have now isn't freedom, the only freedom you have is the freedom to sell your labour.

What is capitalism? don't most people walk into dictatorships the moment they get to work.

I know you say slaver is gone but what is slavey? isn't it nothing more but the ownership of labour. Is this nothing more then wage slavery.

Think about this, why do many people abuse drugs? it is because they live stressful lives and they are just trying to find a way to escape it all. why do people steal, because they lack the necessary resources in order to survive.

Bonam · January 21, 2011

Ya, that is a possibility, I just can't see the transition going that smoothly.

The smoothness of the transition is subjective anyway. I'm sure some people will not like it when oil prices go up and they have to replace their old vehicles with newer more expensive ones. The point is the transition will happen and it won't lead to any collapse of civilization.

No they aren't, we have the means now to solve our problems threw the proper application of technology but we aren't doing that.

Any problem that can be solved through the application of technology can be solved through the application of technology, it doesn't matter what year it is. Whether that technology exists yet or not may vary, but if a problem is technical in nature then it is technical in nature, and that's that.

Our problems are no longer the same problems of the past.

I agree. Starvation, famine, lack of clean drinking water, etc are no longer problems for us in industrialized countries. We don't need to worry about these problems anymore, despite your frequent mention of these problems.

We can supply and distribute food on a massive scale with minimal work to all people thanks to recent technological advances. We have satellites, computers, the internet, amongst many other amazing inventions and ideas. We have the ability to free man of labour so we came have more time to experience life.

Food production and distribution still involves people doing work. It's just that a smaller number of people can provide food for a greater number of people. A few individuals can run a massive mechanized farm that produces food for thousands, but those few people are still putting in a full day's work, and deserve to be compensated for that work.

I think I know what freedom is, it is time. The more time you have in order to do what you want to do, the more freedom you have.

This I do agree with.

What we have now isn't freedom, the only freedom you have is the freedom to sell your labour.

Untrue, we have more freedom than we did in the past. A typical person works 37.5-40 hours per week. How much time does a manual farmer spend working? Sun up to sun down, 7 days a week. What does he get for his labour? Just enough food to feed himself and trade for a few basic goods, if times are good. Or if the weather is unfriendly, he and his family starve during the winter. Our freedom has substantially increased through the application of technology already.

The amount of time we have to do what we want with has increased, but more importantly, the utility of that time is increasing. Through the use of modern technology, we have a much wider range of things we can do in our free time. What could a person a century ago do on a weekend? Much less than we can today. I can travel almost anywhere on the planet, I can use my computer to access all kinds of information and entertainment, I can play sports and do physical activities that didn't even exist 100 years ago, I can communicate with my friends and relatives in any country, etc. The time we have to ourselves now is far more valuable than that same time would have been with less technology available.

The same goes for our time at work. If I wanted to design an airplane 50 years ago, I'd have to spend months doing painstaking aerodynamics computations on paper. Today, a computer will do those for me in minutes.

In the end, a day (on Earth) will always have 24 hours, and as long as you are a natural unmodified human you will spend about 1/3 of it sleeping. If you are part of an economy, you'll spend at least several hours doing something productive (your job) and the rest doing what you want. Whether that time is 8 hours 5 days a week as it is today or 6 hours 4 days a week (for example) doesn't seem like a big deal to me. What matters a lot more is what you can accomplish in that 24 hour day, and that is increasing rapidly as technology advances.

What is capitalism? don't most people walk into dictatorships the moment they get to work.
I know you say slaver is gone but what is slavey? isn't it nothing more but the ownership of labour. Is this nothing more then wage slavery.

Slavery is when you are forced to work and have no choice. Moreover, in chattel slavery, it is not only the output of your labour that belongs to your owner, but also your life. On the other hand, when you are at work, you have the option to quit whenever you want. When you start a job, you also negotiate your contract and accept or decline the proposed compensation for your labour. There is nothing resembling slavery here. You enter into a voluntary arrangement which either party can terminate at its discretion and in which you provide labour and are compensated in exchange.

Think about this, why do many people abuse drugs? it is because they live stressful lives and they are just trying to find a way to escape it all. why do people steal, because they lack the necessary resources in order to survive.

There are many many reasons for people doing drugs. Your theory of people resorting to drugs because of "wage slavery" breaks apart when you take a look at some of the richest people in our society: celebrities. They certainly have no particular need to keep working once they've become famous, as they've already earned millions by then.

Also, many people go through much worse things in life than a typical Canadian druggy or thief could imagine and yet resort neither to drugs nor to theft.

In the end, whether one sinks to a life of crime depends a lot more on one's upbringing and character than anything else.

Edited January 21, 2011 by Bonam

bush_cheney2004 · January 21, 2011

....Think about this, why do many people abuse drugs? it is because they live stressful lives and they are just trying to find a way to escape it all. why do people steal, because they lack the necessary resources in order to survive.

Gee...I think a lot of people steal to buy and abuse drugs!

dre · January 21, 2011

The smoothness of the transition is subjective anyway. I'm sure some people will not like it when oil prices go up and they have to replace their old vehicles with newer more expensive ones. The point is the transition will happen and it won't lead to any collapse of civilization.

You dont seem to understand how far behind we are. We are still at least 50 years away from being read to move beyond our dependence from oil, and energy volatility is ALREADY an impediment to economic growth. If oil becomes cost prohbitive before we are ready to implement whatever is next, then you WILL see a collapse. And in some ways you already have seen it... the economic crisis was caused in part by volatile energy prices, and energy volatility is likely to cause further recessions. And thats just the tip of the ice berg.

We are roughly 30 years behind where we need to be technologically to allow for a smooth transition, and to make things even worse western countries are flat broke, so its going to be hard to allocate the MASSIVE ammount of capital the transition will require.

Bonam · January 21, 2011

You dont seem to understand how far behind we are. We are still at least 50 years away from being read to move beyond our dependence from oil, and energy volatility is ALREADY an impediment to economic growth. If oil becomes cost prohbitive before we are ready to implement whatever is next, then you WILL see a collapse. And in some ways you already have seen it... the economic crisis was caused in part by volatile energy prices, and energy volatility is likely to cause further recessions. And thats just the tip of the ice berg.

We are roughly 30 years behind where we need to be technologically to allow for a smooth transition, and to make things even worse western countries are flat broke, so its going to be hard to allocate the MASSIVE ammount of capital the transition will require.

1. Where did you get the number 50 years and 30 years from? Made them up? Those are pessimistic timescales in my opinion. Anyway, we don't need to completely eliminate our need for oil. We'll always want to use oil to produce plastics for example. But alternate energy sources and energy storage media? The technologies ALREADY exist, right now, this very instant. They are just more expensive, but those prices are coming down.

2. Most of the technological innovation has come and will continue to come mainly from private companies investing private capital, of which there is and remains plenty. They will do this because they can make more money by doing so. For example, most of the research on hybrids, electric vehicles, and fuel cells vehicles has been conducted in house by automotive companies. They receive some subsidies at the end to sell these vehicles, but most of the investment was their own money, which they hope will generate a profit in the future.

dre · January 21, 2011

1. Where did you get the number 50 years and 30 years from? Made them up? Those are pessimistic timescales in my opinion. Anyway, we don't need to completely eliminate our need for oil. We'll always want to use oil to produce plastics for example. But alternate energy sources and energy storage media? The technologies ALREADY exist, right now, this very instant. They are just more expensive, but those prices are coming down.

2. Most of the technological innovation has come and will continue to come mainly from private companies investing private capital, of which there is and remains plenty. They will do this because they can make more money by doing so. For example, most of the research on hybrids, electric vehicles, and fuel cells vehicles has been conducted in house by automotive companies. They receive some subsidies at the end to sell these vehicles, but most of the investment was their own money, which they hope will generate a profit in the future.

1. Where did you get the number 50 years and 30 years from? Made them up? Those are pessimistic timescales in my opinion. Anyway, we don't need to completely eliminate our need for oil. We'll always want to use oil to produce plastics for example. But alternate energy sources and energy storage media? The technologies ALREADY exist, right now, this very instant. They are just more expensive, but those prices are coming down.

Those numbers are estimates but theyre actually very conservative. It took 100 years to build our current energy "system", and an absolutely massive ammount of capital investment. Our transition into the next energy age will be the biggest and most expensive project humans have ever attempted. 50 years is extremely optimistic.

And we are as I said already at a point where energy volatility is damaging human and economic development, and causing hardship for businesses, people, and governments. Were also dangerously close to consumption outstripping exploration and when that happens we will start to have real problems even if theres still enough oil in the ground to last another 50 years. If you want to understand why just read up on how futures markets work. Oil will be too expensive to use as a primary energy source a long long long time before the resource is actually nearing depletion.

But alternate energy sources and energy storage media? The technologies ALREADY exist, right now, this very instant. They are just more expensive, but those prices are coming down.

Absolutely... some of the basic building blocks are there but they still need lots of work, and lots of capital investment, and it will take decades to implement them. Depending on what direction we go in we might be talking about completely replacing national electrical infrastructure, or replacing hundreds of thousands of gas stations with something else, or both.

The costs involved will be astronomical, and we dont even have money to do the necessary upgrades to our EXISTING infrastructure in most western countries. The most expensive project ever in history is hitting us at a time when we are broke and most western countries are awash in red ink.

2. Most of the technological innovation has come and will continue to come mainly from private companies investing private capital, of which there is and remains plenty. They will do this because they can make more money by doing so. For example, most of the research on hybrids, electric vehicles, and fuel cells vehicles has been conducted in house by automotive companies.

Building an electric car isnt very hard, and private companies will definately be at the forefront of that type of activity. But for an electric energy economy to work MASSIVE public investment will be required.

Basically things will play out very much like they did with the fossil fuel economy... private companies played a large part, but there was massive public investment as well. In order for the internal combusion engine to work, trillions of dollars worth or roads had to be built. Massive subsidies were doled out at every step of the way, and there was a huge ammount of public participation. The same will true of the next energy paradigm. It will take many decades to build, and will require a massive ammount of both public and private capital.

Edited January 21, 2011 by dre

maple_leafs182 · January 26, 2011

I agree. Starvation, famine, lack of clean drinking water, etc are no longer problems for us in industrialized countries. We don't need to worry about these problems anymore, despite your frequent mention of these problems.

Because saying they are no longer problems is a lie, they may not be a problem for you or your family or friends but they are still a problems for others.

Food production and distribution still involves people doing work. It's just that a smaller number of people can provide food for a greater number of people. A few individuals can run a massive mechanized farm that produces food for thousands, but those few people are still putting in a full day's work, and deserve to be compensated for that work.

They get free food for life, that is there compensation and it isn't like anyone is forcing them to take on that responsibility. Also, they wouldn't have to be there on a constant basis, look at some luxury cars, they can e-mail you telling you that you need an oil change, we can set up a system that works in a similar way.

There are many many reasons for people doing drugs. Your theory of people resorting to drugs because of "wage slavery" breaks apart when you take a look at some of the richest people in our society: celebrities. They certainly have no particular need to keep working once they've become famous, as they've already earned millions by then.

Not because of wage slavery but because of the stress that many endure on a day to day basis.

In the end, whether one sinks to a life of crime depends a lot more on one's upbringing and character than anything else.

Yes, that is my point, imagine living in a community where the necessities of lives were met for everyone free of charge. Do you think there would be an increase or decrease in crime and drug abuse.

Edited January 26, 2011 by maple_leafs182

M.Dancer · January 26, 2011

Yes, that is my point, imagine living in a community where the necessities of lives were met for everyone free of charge. Do you think there would be an increase or decrease in crime and drug abuse.

There would be an increase of drug use without question brought on by boredom. Stress is good for you. Keeps you thinking and fit.

The old saying, idle hands do the devils work is not just a saying....

maple_leafs182 · January 27, 2011

There would be an increase of drug use without question brought on by boredom. Stress is good for you. Keeps you thinking and fit.

The old saying, idle hands do the devils work is not just a saying....

I didn't say drug use, i said abuse.

And if your bored then your boring, that is your problem, I'm sure you would find something to do.

Watch this movie, depending on your person, it may be one of the most important movies you will ever see.

bush_cheney2004 · January 27, 2011

....Watch this movie, depending on your person, it may be one of the most important movies you will ever see.

Why? Is there no end to your adoration of American produced media and culture?

Peter Joseph and his "movement" are old news.

Edited January 27, 2011 by bush_cheney2004

M.Dancer · January 27, 2011

I didn't say drug use, i said abuse.

And if your bored then your boring, that is your problem, I'm sure you would find something to do.

And I meant abuse.

And you are not sure because you have no experience to guide you.

GostHacked · January 27, 2011

http://www.weforum.org/s?s=100+trillion

New York, USA, 18 January 2011 – Credit levels will need to double over the next 10 years, growing by US$ 103 trillion, to support consensus-projected economic growth. This doubling of credit could be achieved without increasing the risk of major crisis, finds More Credit with Fewer Crises: Responsibly Meeting the World’s Growing Demand for Credit, a report released by the World Economic Forum in collaboration with McKinsey & Company. The study develops a detailed global credit model using historical credit volumes and forecasting potential credit demand to 2020 across 79 countries, representing 99% of world credit volume. The study applies a sustainability methodology to the projected credit demand, using newly developed metrics to answer the following two questions: Will credit growth be sufficient to meet demand? Is there a risk of future credit crises and, if so, where?

No of course there is no crisis.

Credit needs to be injected into the world economy. That means that there will be 100 trillion available for people/countries/banks to borrow. This means that whoever is lending the loans, owns the entities they are lending too.

Equate it to your personal finances. You are in debt up to your ears, but to continue the lifestyle you need to borrow more money, with the hope you will eventually pay it all back, but never will be able to. But what is really needed is to live within your means. The bank will be more than happy to lend you the money, because they make profit on the interest you are paying for this lavish lifestyle. And if you can't make payments anymore, the bank takes it all back and sells it to someone else... for a profit.

Wake up people. Shit is going to get real, very soon, and people are going to realize how screwed the world economy is. It's a joke and a sham/scam.

So where is this 100 trillion going to come from? Is it sitting in a bank somewhere just waiting to be lent?

bush_cheney2004 · January 27, 2011

....Wake up people. Shit is going to get real, very soon, and people are going to realize how screwed the world economy is. It's a joke and a sham/scam.

What you mean is that "shit is going to get real" from your very young and narrow perspective, having NEVER lived through anything approaching such economic calamity before. To you, any change from the relatively smooth ride to date is doomsday.

GostHacked · January 27, 2011

What you mean is that "shit is going to get real" from your very young and narrow perspective, having NEVER lived through anything approaching such economic calamity before. To you, any change from the relatively smooth ride to date is doomsday.

The delusion is in those who think it has been a smooth ride so far.

Bonam · January 27, 2011

The delusion is in those who think it has been a smooth ride so far.

How so?

bush_cheney2004 · January 27, 2011

The delusion is in those who think it has been a smooth ride so far.

But it has been very smooth....we (not you - no TV right?) get to watch your doomsday unfold on big flat screen HD televisions. Those who have gone before us endured far greater hardships for far longer periods of time.

M.Dancer · January 27, 2011

My mother lived through the great depression. That was the peroid where by the end of it, there were no doors in their place because they had been burnt for fuel and my grandfather raised pigeons and rabbits in the back for food.She said her brothers used to follow the coal truck to scavenge what fell off...and every kid ( she was one of 13) as soon as a job became available for them was pulled out of school to work. My mother's last year of formal education was grade 6 and after that she was home looking after her younger brothers while her mother working as a cleaning women in Westmount.

And for perspective...the depression started really in 1930 and went on for four years with unemployment topping 24%. It took another 5 years to recover...

dre · January 27, 2011

My mother lived through the great depression. That was the peroid where by the end of it, there were no doors in their place because they had been burnt for fuel and my grandfather raised pigeons and rabbits in the back for food.She said her brothers used to follow the coal truck to scavenge what fell off...and every kid ( she was one of 13) as soon as a job became available for them was pulled out of school to work. My mother's last year of formal education was grade 6 and after that she was home looking after her younger brothers while her mother working as a cleaning women in Westmount.

And for perspective...the depression started really in 1930 and went on for four years with unemployment topping 24%. It took another 5 years to recover...

I personally think whats going on now is more serious because this recession wasnt an accident. It was intentionally engineered. And absolutely nothing has been done to fix anything of the structural issues that allowed it to happen. At least after the great depression there was an attempt to address the causes.

Bonam · January 27, 2011

I personally think whats going on now is more serious

That just shows that you have no historical context for your opinions. What is happening now is a joke, a minor inconvenience, a blip. It's not even in the same category as periods of time when vast numbers of people were thrown into real hardship, despite media hype.

bush_cheney2004 · January 27, 2011

...And for perspective...the depression started really in 1930 and went on for four years with unemployment topping 24%. It took another 5 years to recover...

Right...and the recovery event was no bowl of cherries either (WW2). These kids today whine about hardship if they don't have a high speed internet connection!