Harper's 16 Billion Dollar Fighter Jet Purchase Plan

[Moonbox]

The radar network is far more thn the dish...the command and control centres of whioch there were far more than one and needed more than a cruise missile attack to disable...and were located deep in iraq;

The radar 'network' was already severely degraded by attacks prior to the first stealth plane ever even taking off. They didn't launch any deep strike missions until the Apaches had already taken out three of the main radar stations. This allowed US air strikes to fly to their targets undetected until they were practically over top of them anyways.

The victory cannot simply be because the iraqis were primitive (which of course they weren't). They were defeated by superior weaponry of which the stealth bombers played a crucial role.

No, I'll concede that point, it wasn't SIMPLY because the Iraqis were primitive. They weren't exactly cave men, but they never had a chance to start. US personnel were better trained, better organized, better equipped and had an unbelievable advantage in air power from numbers alone that the conflict would have been over quickly with or without stealth aircraft. The Iraqi's couldn't even penetrate the armor of the M1A1 tank. Hell even the Americans could barely do it.

We can only guess what the losses would be if the CC network were attcked without stealth weaponry....remembering US sorties over Hanoi should be an indicator.

I'm not sure Vietnam is a great example. For one the rules of engagement were extremely strict for fear of China entering the war, second Hanoi was surrounded by jungle, supported by China and had probably the densest AA shield the world has ever seen.

Iraq was a desert and nobody supported them.

I'm not saying that stealth didn't prove itself in Desert Storm, but I am questioning whether a 20 year old conflict, in which the US flew planes with superior stealth, is a great justification for an inferior stealth design. Considering the Russians will have had 25-30 years to refine their detection abilities so that they could detect the F-117, I'm wondering how likely it is that they won't be able to figure out how to see the 10x more visible F-35.

[bush_cheney2004]

.... Considering the Russians will have had 25-30 years to refine their detection abilities so that they could detect the F-117, I'm wondering how likely it is that they won't be able to figure out how to see the 10x more visible F-35.

You seem to be consumed by the threat of "Russians"....why is this given the actual nature of Canadian/NATO air power actions over the past three decades?

[Moonbox]

You seem to be consumed by the threat of "Russians"....why is this given the actual nature of Canadian/NATO air power actions over the past three decades?

Because Russian weapons proliferate all over the world and anyone NATO fights is using them. They have no qualms about selling modern tech to whoever pays. They're doubly happy because not only do they make money off it, it also serves as a deterrent against western expansionism.

[dre]

Primitive? Not in the least. Primitive forces to not fly Mig 29s, Mig 25s, Mirage F-1s, SU 25s etc etc....

Primitive forces to not field sophisticated air defenses like SA series....16,000 missiles in 1990

And yes all their defensive networks were degraded....by stealth bombers...

Primitive? Not in the least. Primitive forces to not fly Mig 29s, Mig 25s, Mirage F-1s, SU 25s etc etc....

True but advanced militaries dont normally bury their entire airforce in the sand instead of launching planes.

[bush_cheney2004]

Because Russian weapons proliferate all over the world and anyone NATO fights is using them. They have no qualms about selling modern tech to whoever pays. They're doubly happy because not only do they make money off it, it also serves as a deterrent against western expansionism.

So you mean that Canada would face Russian aircraft types in the hands of "customers" with inherently inferior training, poor EW/ECM support, untested tactics, etc. ? What has been the record so far for these Russian customers?

And for the record, there are several other nations who provide tactical aircraft that Canada has/will face in the future.

The F-117 downed during the Kosovo War was more likely the victim of clever interpretation of changes to cell phone mast RF propagation than any counter from the Russians, who still find it difficult to jam GPS guided bombs after 20 years.

[Moonbox]

So you mean that Canada would face Russian aircraft types in the hands of "customers" with inherently inferior training, poor EW/ECM support, untested tactics, etc. ? What has been the record so far for these Russian customers?

There isn't much of a record. For the last 40 years the record has been of poor, small and third world backwaters getting bitch slapped by the world's biggest super power. Personally I doubt that China or Russia would have had much trouble rolling over Iraq or Yugoslavia either.

And for the record, there are several other nations who provide tactical aircraft that Canada has/will face in the future.

Yes I know that thank you. Most of them are NATO allies, however, and don't generally sell that equipment to the USA's enemies, nor is the USA in the business of selling the tech to detect their own aircraft.

The F-117 downed during the Kosovo War was more likely the victim of clever interpretation of changes to cell phone mast RF propagation than any counter from the Russians, who still find it difficult to jam GPS guided bombs after 20 years.

Whatever they did, it was innovative and could happen again.

[bush_cheney2004]

There isn't much of a record. For the last 40 years the record has been of poor, small and third world backwaters getting bitch slapped by the world's biggest super power. Personally I doubt that China or Russia would have had much trouble rolling over Iraq or Yugoslavia either.

Again...you are focused on the same few nations. Technically, Canada's biggest threat comes from the United States.

Yes I know that thank you. Most of them are NATO allies, however, and don't generally sell that equipment to the USA's enemies, nor is the USA in the business of selling the tech to detect their own aircraft.

Yes they do...France and Israel in particular.

Whatever they did, it was innovative and could happen again.

And if pigs had wings they dould fly.

[Moonbox]

Again...you are focused on the same few nations. Technically, Canada's biggest threat comes from the United States.

Yes but the threat is technically so overwhelming, yet realistically so unlikely, that it's not worth worrying about.

Yes they do...France and Israel in particular.

What aircraft are the Israelis selling abroad??

I'm not sure what you're talking about with the French either. When they were selling Mirages to the Iraqis, Iraq was still an American ally. That's one of the more brilliant example of US foreign policy actually...

Couldn't help it sorry.

[bush_cheney2004]

Yes but the threat is technically so overwhelming, yet realistically so unlikely, that it's not worth worrying about.

But you said that stealth technology was inconsequential.

What aircraft are the Israelis selling abroad??

UAVs

I'm not sure what you're talking about with the French either. When they were selling Mirages to the Iraqis, Iraq was still an American ally. That's one of the more brilliant example of US foreign policy actually...

A Mirage can kill you just as fast as a MiG. Iraq was never an American "ally" in this context.

Edited January 2, 2011 by bush_cheney2004

[William Ashley]

I think what is having me doubt this is that Russia plans on working on a smaller variant around 2015-2020

Alexei Fedorov has said that any decision on applying fifth generation technologies to produce a smaller fighter (in the F-35 range) must wait until after the heavy fighter, based on the T-50, is completed

This is already somewhat done - and development is slated between 2015 and 2020.

If Canada plans on flying this for as stated 20 years.... and allocating their aquisition budget for that period - because we all know the money doesn't exist now and wont then. What is canada going to do for the 5 or 10 years its technology is inferior to the Russians - and anyone else who buys them technology.

Honestly do you think this plane will be "up to muster" in 2020? I can only guess better stuff will be flying between 2025 and and 2030 if people are still alive.

This is a 20 billion dollar projects.. put this interms of the annual defence budget

http://www.peacealliancewinnipeg.ca/wp-content/uploads/national-defence-budget.gif

November

U.S. aircraft maker Lockheed Martin’s CEO warned this week that development of the F-35s will likely take more time and money to complete. News reports from Washington suggest the delay could add as much as three years and $5-billion to the development phase of the jet fighter

I still think this is an awsome aircraft ---- none the less the 21 billion price tag as a base price for running it between 2016 and 20?? is what I'm wondering about

if this this is completely obsolete in 10 years after delivery it works out to 2 billion a year as a base price for 65 aircraft.

or a 1/10 of the defence budget for the 65 aircraft. assuming the defence budget climbed from 15 to 20 billion a year. according to this it looks like the allocation is a 1 billion increase to the defence budget up until 2020.

resting the budget at 25 billion/ year up 10 billion from 2005. or a 75% increase over 15 years.

----

The cost overruns on the f35 alone are 2x the development cost of the su50.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/f-35-glitches-wont-affect-canadian-fighter-jet-order-mackay-says/article1788245/

States that actual orders are down 40% from the "prior expected" orders.

How much the orders being cut by half almost is to effect the unit price is anyones guess...

In reality, it is perhaps the most expensive military purchase by the Canadian government for a single weapon system in the history of this country. The Department of National Defence (DND) will be outlaying, all told, $16 billion for the aircraft. Consider that Canada's defence budget is something like $21 billion. Now, the procurement and payment process will not occur in one swoop of course. Nevertheless, it is a staggering number

http://www.f-16.net/f-16_forum_viewtopic-t-14187.html

Watch this then apply it to the technological relevance when Canada is using this between 2016 and 2025.

Canada is currently scheduled to buy aircraft between 2016-2022

http://www.forces.gc.ca/site/pri/2/pro-pro/ngfc-fs-ft/cost-cout-eng.asp

and these are CTOL.

the low to mid 70 millions USD per aircraft.

The purchase of the F-35 has already been identified in the Canada First Defence Strategy (CFDS). DND is not asking for additional money to fund the next generation fighter project

70 million is a far cry from 240 million.

9 billion is a far cry from 21 billion.

There is apparently a 40% drop in global orders also - AND - this may further effect costing and ROI on infrastructure.

Edited January 2, 2011 by William Ashley

[bush_cheney2004]

bump

Edited January 2, 2011 by bush_cheney2004

[Moonbox]

But you said that stealth technology was inconsequential.

I did not say it was inconsequential. I said that their advantage was so complete in ALL areas that stealth or not the conflict would have been over quickly and decisively.

UAVs

Ah.

A Mirage can kill you just as fast as a MiG. Iraq was never an American "ally" in this context.

A Mirage can kill you yes, but nobody is even buying the Rafale. France isn't really a contender in the mix.

[bush_cheney2004]

Ah.

Ah indeed...it seems that even the big bad Russians want to buy Israeli UAV kit.

[Bonam]

Ah indeed...it seems that even the big bad Russians want to buy Israeli UAV kit.

Even the US has learned a thing or two from Israel when it comes to UAVs.

[M.Dancer]

True but advanced militaries dont normally bury their entire airforce in the sand instead of launching planes.

They didn't bury any planes in the sand for GULF STORM. They engaged the coalition at first, and were shot down. And again to the point, the planes shot down were front line crafts..MIG-25< Mirages...etc..they lost 122 in combat...ten they flew some to Iran.

[Moonbox]

Ah indeed...it seems that even the big bad Russians want to buy Israeli UAV kit.

I guess my question is what's the relevance to the argument at hand? Does Israeli UAV expertise somehow show us that Russian anti-air and detection equipment is still 30 years behind??

[bush_cheney2004]

I guess my question is what's the relevance to the argument at hand? Does Israeli UAV expertise somehow show us that Russian anti-air and detection equipment is still 30 years behind??

Perhaps it does....why would Russia need to buy such Israeli-American developed UAV expertise at all? Why does Russia bemoan the development of an American missile defense program (successful detectors, processing, and kill vehicle)? Why can't Russia successfully jam GPS guided munitions after "30 years"?

What have the Russians done lately to garner your admiration for AAW?

Edited January 4, 2011 by bush_cheney2004

[Moonbox]

Perhaps it does....why would Russia need to buy such Israeli-American developed UAV expertise at all?

Logical fallacy. Russia's lack of expertise in one field does not equate to a lack of expertise in all fields.

Why does Russia bemoan the development of an American missile defense program (successful detectors, processing, and kill vehicle)?

Could it perhaps be because Russia is a fair bit poorer and can't afford it?

Why can't Russia successfully jam GPS guided munitions after "30 years"?

North Korea has demonstrated an ability to do so. I doubt that expertise is held by them alone.

What have the Russians done lately to garner your admiration for AAW?

I admire a lot of Russian tech. American defense officials do too, as they did throughout the Cold War.

My 'respect' for Russian AAW capabilities derives from knowing the Russians invested MUCH more heavily into it throughout the Cold War than did the Americans simply because they were so heavily outnumbered in aircraft by NATO.

[bush_cheney2004]

I admire a lot of Russian tech. American defense officials do too, as they did throughout the Cold War.

But what have they actually done....deployed...can afford to do by your own admission?

My 'respect' for Russian AAW capabilities derives from knowing the Russians invested MUCH more heavily into it throughout the Cold War than did the Americans simply because they were so heavily outnumbered in aircraft by NATO.

They still are.

[Moonbox]

But what have they actually done....deployed...can afford to do by your own admission?

Basically anything that has shot American aircraft down over the last 50 years has been Russian built or designed. Conflicts like Iraq and Yugoslavia are hardly fair tests of Russian AAW, considering how incredibly unbalanced the forces arrayed against them were.

At present I don't think anyone really knows exactly what they're capable of, but I think it's probably foolish to discount their ability to refine and improve their technology over 30 years.

They still are.

and the Russians, Chinese, North Koreans etc all continue to invest heavily in ground based AA to TRY to make up the difference.

[wyly]

My 'respect' for Russian AAW capabilities derives from knowing the Russians invested MUCH more heavily into it throughout the Cold War than did the Americans simply because they were so heavily outnumbered in aircraft by NATO.

it's the russian logic at work, build it cheap and make thousands of them...building missiles is inexpensive compared to developing planes and newer generations can be developed much, much quicker than a new plane...in missile development the russians may be 10 yrs in advance of the USA...

[Moonbox]

it's the russian logic at work, build it cheap and make thousands of them...building missiles is inexpensive compared to developing planes and newer generations can be developed much, much quicker than a new plane...in missile development the russians may be 10 yrs in advance of the USA...

That's not really their 'philosophy' so much as it was their only option. They couldn't hope to compete with NATO air power so instead they poured a lot more money into cheaper defensive systems.

[M.Dancer]

Basically anything that has shot American aircraft down over the last 50 years has been Russian built or designed. Conflicts like Iraq and Yugoslavia are hardly fair tests of Russian AAW, considering how incredibly unbalanced the forces arrayed against them were.

Perhaps....but then there is the 67 and 72 wars....

[Moonbox]

Perhaps....but then there is the 67 and 72 wars....

Testaments to the complete and utter incompetence of Arab leadership more than anything else. I don't mean to be trite, but those were just turkey shoots for the Israelis. The Arabs could not have conducted themselves more stupidly.

Egypt losing their entire airforce in 1967 on the ground before the fight really even started would be an example.

Syrian tank divisions losing with a 10:1 numbers advantage on the Golan Heights would be another example.

If you took those same clowns and gave them F-22's and M1A1 tanks they would have still found a way to lose.

[M.Dancer]

Testaments to the complete and utter incompetence of Arab leadership more than anything else. I don't mean to be trite, but those were just turkey shoots for the Israelis. The Arabs could not have conducted themselves more stupidly.

Okay then, how about the israelis shooting down soviet piloted Migs? Can't blame that on being Arab...

July 30, 1970: - A large-scale dogfight codenamed Rimon 20, involving twelve to twenty-four MiG-21s (besides the initial twelve, other MiGs are "scrambled", but it is unclear if they reach the battle in time), twelve Mirage III and four F-4 Phantom II jets, takes place west of the Suez Canal. Ambushing their opponents, the Israelis down four Soviet-piloted MiGs, and, according to some sources, a fifth is hit and crashes en route back to its base. Three Soviet pilots are killed, while the IAF suffers no casualties except a damaged Mirage.[27] Following the Soviets' direct intervention, known as "Operation Kavkaz",[27] Washington fears an escalation and redoubles efforts toward a peaceful resolution to the conflict.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_of_Attrition