Federal Opinion Polls - Canadawide

maplesyrup · June 4, 2004

-from SES CPAC

The three point gap between the Liberals and the Conservatives continues :
Liberals 37, Conservatives 34, NDP 17, B loc Quebecois 9, Green Party

3. Support for both the Liberals and the Conservatives has increased in

tandem over the past two nights of tracking.

The percentage of Canadians who think Conservative Leader Stephen Harper

would be the best PM has increased from 17% to 23% since the beginning of

the campaign. As of last night, compared to the beginning of the campaign,

Harper has narrowed the "best PM" gap with Paul Martin from 14 to 7 points.

Polling June 1 to June 3 (Random Telephone Survey of 600 Canadians, MoE

±4.1%, 19 times out of 20). Percentages may not add up to 100 due to

rounding. Our tracking polls allow for a daily barometer on the activities

of the respective campaigns.

Decided Voters (Change from May 25th, 1st Nightly Tracking Poll Results)

LIB - 37% (-4)

CP - 34% (+6)

NDP - 17 (-1)

BQ - 9% (-2)

GP - 3% (0)

*17% of Canadians were undecided (-4)

Appetite for Change (Change from May 25th, 1st Nightly Tracking Poll

Results)

Time for Change - 59% (+7)

Liberals doing a good job - 25% (-3)

Agree with neither - 9% (-2)

Unsure - 8% (-2)

Best PM (Change from May 25th, 1st Nightly Tracking Poll Results)

Martin - 30% (-1)

Harper - 23% (+6)

Unsure -21% (-3)

None - 12% (-4)

Layton - 10% (+1)

Duceppe - 4% (+1)

On the SES website (www.sesresearch.com), we post updated daily

longitudinal tracking charts and details on the questions and the

methodology each afternoon. Watch PrimeTime Politics at 8 pm EST (Monday

to Friday) to get a detailed briefing of the numbers.

For any media use of the polling data, we need to clearly identify the

sponsor (CPAC). Please refer to the research as the CPAC-SES Nightly

Tracking.

Feel free to forward this e-mail.

Cheers,

Nik

Goldie · June 4, 2004

I would really like to see how those numbers play in the ROC, in other words without Quebec numbers to scew the national numbers.

I'm quessing with the Bloq at 9% and Liberals at 37% the movement was in Quebec.

maplesyrup · June 5, 2004

Canada

Company

Date-----------LI CO ND BL GN

Ipsos-Reid

04/06/2004 32 31 17 11 06

SES CPAC

04/06/2004 37 34 17 09 03

SES CPAC

03/06/2004 35 32 19 09 04

SES CPAC

02/06/2004 37 29 19 11 05

Leger Marketing

02/06/2004 35 30 17 12 5

SES

01/06/2004 36 25 22 13 5

Ipsos-Reid

31/05/2004 34 30 16 ?? 6

SES

31/05/2004 36 26 20 13 5

SES

30/05/2004 34 31 19 12 3

EKOS

28/05/2004 38 30 18 11

SES

28/05/2004 40 31 16 10 3

SES

27/05/2004 42 29 17 10 2

Environics

26/05/2004 38 29 21 11

SES

26/05/2004 41 28 18 11 3

Compas

22/05/2004 39 31 17 11

maplesyrup · June 5, 2004

Canada

Company

Date-----------LI CO ND BL GN

Ipsos-Reid

04/06/2004 32 31 17 11 06

SES CPAC

04/06/2004 37 34 17 09 03

SES CPAC

03/06/2004 35 32 19 09 04

SES CPAC

02/06/2004 37 29 19 11 05

Leger Marketing

02/06/2004 35 30 17 12 05

SES

01/06/2004 36 25 22 13 05

Ipsos-Reid

31/05/2004 34 30 16 11 06

SES

31/05/2004 36 26 20 13 05

SES

30/05/2004 34 31 19 12 03

EKOS

28/05/2004 38 30 18 11

SES

28/05/2004 40 31 16 10 03

SES

27/05/2004 42 29 17 10 02

Environics

26/05/2004 38 29 21 11

SES

26/05/2004 41 28 18 11 03

Compas

22/05/2004 39 31 17 11

Ipsos-Reid

22/05/2004 35 26 18 12 05 04

Ipsos-Reid

20/05/2004 39 26 15 11 05

Interesting to compare the Ipsos-Reid national polling results from May 20, 2004, a couple of days before the election was called, to today.

Libs: 32%, down 7%

Cons: 31%, up 5 %

New Dem: up 2%

twister · June 5, 2004

Interesting to compare the Ipsos-Reid national polling results from May 20, 2004, a couple of days before the election was called, to today.
Libs: 32%, down 7%

Cons: 31%, up 5 %

New Dem: up 2%

Interesting to note that most of the support that is bleeding away from the Liberals is going to the Conservatives (about 7 in 10) while very little is actually going to the NDP (3 in 10). If this trend keeps up we could see the Tories exceed 35% support while the Liberals fall below 30%.

maplesyrup · June 7, 2004

SES CPAC poll released June 7, 2004

Conservatives take the lead Canadawide for the first time - congratulations to my Conservative friends!

Cons: 34%

Libs: 32%

New Dem: 20%

There is only a 12% spread between the New Democrats and the Liberals.

takeanumber · June 7, 2004

I'm wondering about how many undecideds there are.

maplesyrup · June 7, 2004

takeanumber.......22% undecided

takeanumber · June 7, 2004

Wow. So quite low.

I can't make any good assumptions about how the undecided feel. So I won't.

The debates might actually make a difference.

maplesyrup · June 7, 2004

Canada

Company

Date-----------LI CO ND BL GN UN

SES CPAC

07/06/2004 32 34 20 11 04 22

Ipsos-Reid

04/06/2004 32 31 17 11 06

SES CPAC

04/06/2004 37 34 17 09 03

SES CPAC

03/06/2004 35 32 19 09 04

SES CPAC

02/06/2004 37 29 19 11 05

Leger Marketing

02/06/2004 35 30 17 12 05

SES

01/06/2004 36 25 22 13 05

Ipsos-Reid

31/05/2004 34 30 16 11 06

SES

31/05/2004 36 26 20 13 05

SES

30/05/2004 34 31 19 12 03

EKOS

28/05/2004 38 30 18 11

SES

28/05/2004 40 31 16 10 03

SES

27/05/2004 42 29 17 10 02

Environics

26/05/2004 38 29 21 11

SES

26/05/2004 41 28 18 11 03

Compas

22/05/2004 39 31 17 11

Ipsos-Reid

22/05/2004 35 26 18 12 05 04

Ipsos-Reid

20/05/2004 39 26 15 11 05

maplesyrup · June 7, 2004

Let's look at what has happened over the past weekend, and since May 25 when they starting releasing these daily public polls :

SES CPAC

Dates: May 25, June 4, June 7

Cons: 28%, 34%, up 6%, 34%, flatlined

Libs: 41%, 37%, down 4%, 32%, down 5%

New Dem: 18%, 17%, down 1%, 20%, up 3%

Bloc: 11%, 9% down 2%, 11%, up 2%

This is quite amazin'

The big winners over the weekend are the New Democrats and the Bloc

Guess what this means folks?

maplesyrup · June 7, 2004

You heard it here first. As of last night, the CPAC-SES Election Tracking

- Conservatives 34%, Liberals 32%, NDP 20%, BQ 11%, Green 4%. Although

still a statistical tie, this has to be considered a big psychological

breakthrough for the Harper-led Conservatives. Of concern to the Liberals

should also be the fact that the percentage of Canadians who think Paul

Martin would be the best PM has dropped to 27%, only four points ahead of

Conservative Stephen Harper (23% best PM).

Polling June 4 to June 6 (Random Telephone Survey of 600 Canadians, MoE

±4.1%, 19 times out of 20). Percentages may not add up to 100 due to

rounding. Our tracking polls allow for a daily barometer on the activities

of the respective campaigns.

Decided Voters (Change from May 25th, 1st Nightly Tracking Poll Results)

CP - 34% (+6)

LIB - 32% (-9)

NDP - 20 (+2)

BQ - 11% (0)

GP - 4% (1)

*22% of Canadians were undecided (+1)

Appetite for Change (Change from May 25th, 1st Nightly Tracking Poll

Results)

Time for Change - 57% (+5)

Liberals doing a good job - 24% (-4)

Agree with neither - 10% (-1)

Unsure - 9% (-1)

Best PM (Change from May 25th, 1st Nightly Tracking Poll Results)

Martin - 27% (-4)

Harper - 23% (+6)

Unsure -22% (-2)

None - 13% (-3)

Layton - 13% (+4)

Duceppe - 4% (+1)

On the SES website (www.sesresearch.com), we post updated daily

longitudinal tracking charts and details on the questions and the

methodology each afternoon. Watch PrimeTime Politics at 8 pm EST (Monday

to Friday) to get a detailed briefing of the numbers.

For any media use of the polling data, we need to clearly identify the

sponsor (CPAC). Please refer to the research as the CPAC-SES Nightly

Tracking.

Feel free to forward this e-mail.

Cheers,

Nik

takeanumber · June 7, 2004

Great work Maple.

maplesyrup · June 7, 2004

Buzz Hargrove is on CBC Newsworld now, and he said:

Conservatives have peaked

Liberals are in freefall

New Dem are on the move and have the Momentum

and, wait for it folks,

Jack Layton is looking Prime Ministerial

Kliege · June 7, 2004

Do people still care what that commie red Buzz Hargrove have to say. I hope not.

So it is how I predicted. Harper will be going into the debates the guy with the big mo and Martin and Layton nipping at his heels.

Its going to be a good debate, this one will make all the difference in my opinion.

maplesyrup · June 7, 2004

SES CPAC poll released June 7, 2004:

Best Prime Minister

Date: May 25, June 4, June 7

Libs: 41%, 30%, down 11%, 27%, down 3%

Cons: 17%, 23%, up 6%, 23%, flatlined

New Dem: 09%, 10%, up 1%, 13%, up 3%

Bloc: 03%, 04%, up 1%, 4%, flatlined

Undecided:

Unsure:

So, in addition to the New Democrats having the most increase in party support over the weekend, Jack Layton has increased his support the most for choice of best prime minister during the weekend as well.

maplesyrup · June 7, 2004

Do people still care what that commie red Buzz Hargrove have to say. I hope not.
So it is how I predicted. Harper will be going into the debates the guy with the big mo and Martin and Layton nipping at his heels.

Its going to be a good debate, this one will make all the difference in my opinion.

Actually if you look at the weekend figures, you are correct, there is big momentum, however it is for the New Democratic Leader Jack Layton.

Stephen Harper is flatlined.

K....is Harper really a nazi? He isn't is he, just like I don't think Hargrove is a commie.

I'm getting the impression your arguments are very weak with no substance, so you have to resort to putdowns or insults.

Don't you realize you damage your own personal credibility, and can make readers think less of the Coonservatives, the party you support, by using those inappropriate comments?

Kliege · June 7, 2004

Maple do you think they NDP can overtake the Liberals for 2 second place?

maplesyrup · June 7, 2004

Kliege.......I think the Conservatives have peaked, the Liberals may still be dropping, and the Jack Layton New Democrats are on a roll with lots of momentum.

Goldie · June 8, 2004

What MS doesn't want you to see.

So the Conservatives in first and NDP flatlined

Slavik44 · June 8, 2004

Kliege.......I think the Conservatives have peaked, the Liberals may still be dropping, and the Jack Layton New Democrats are on a roll with lots of momentum.

MS, enough with you and this NDP momentum, it has yet to pay off or even really show through, infact I belive you were calling for the NDP to overtake the cons in the first week of campaigning. instead the cons have over taken the libs in the first few weeks of campaigning. I mena since the SES polling has began the NDP is +2, the cons are +6, the libs -9. The NDP has been on a roll in momentum for the past few months, but yes you guessed it at the end of april the NDP was at, yes thats right, 20%. They had momentum then they have momentum now. Honestly before telling us about momentum look over a longer period of tiem and you will realise that it si the NDP who have really peaked, their pollign results are sporadic but can be as low as 15 or as high as 20. This is what creates the illusion of momentum, Ever few weeks the NDP gets a quick boost in the polls and then drops again, then they get a quick boost and drop. For the NDP to be gaining momentum they would need to improve upon 20%. As the NDp have been bumping aroudnt his whole 18, 15, 20 percent thing since 2003. Tehy have reached a high of 22% a few days ago on SES before dropping back down below 20 for a few polls and now hitting 20% again. They key for the NDP would be to hit the polls on one of their sporadic highs. But if the NDP hits and maintains 24% I will say they hav emomentum because it would indicate something more then a strategic high. Likewise when the cons maintain a lead over the liberals for more then 1 poll, i will see them as being the true front runner.

August1991 · June 8, 2004

I agree Slavik. The NDP is back in its traditional area of 15-20% (before it went down, after Broadbent, the leader-chosen-for-PC-reasons path).

Since I think Liberal turn out will be lower than polls suggest, I think we may well end up with (very roughly):

CPC 37%

Lib 33%

NDP 18%

Bloc 12%

I think it is impossible for the Tories to get a majority government. I also think the NDP alone will not hold the balance of power. The Liberals will not be decimated like the Tories in 1993. And the BQ cannot get more than 55 seats in Quebec. (ie. there are about 20 Quebec seats where even Ronald Reagan dead would get elected if he ran as a Liberal.)

I would watch for a little more movement in Ontario (Libs to Tory) and then that will be it. People have begun to make up their minds and despite claims to the contrary, I think the situation is really not that volatile.

All this of course assumes that nothing substantially weird happens like finding PM PM's name in the black book of underage prostitutes in Quebec City.

Goldie · June 8, 2004

I mostly agree, but I believe the Tories will get a couple more points after the debate. Maybe 40% but scattered so won't make a big difference in seat projection.

Slavik44 · June 8, 2004

I cannot see the cons gettign 40% if that were to happen they would basically be getting:

B.C:30 seats

Alberta: 28

sask/man: 15

Ont: 65

Quebec: 0

Atlantic: 17

North:0

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155

no matter how you look at it 40% calls for a majority..it means that the cons would return to 2000 levels in B.C, and dominate ontario, if the cons get 40% they will win a majority with out quebec. The tories peak is most likeley

36% tops...anythign above that is wishfull thinking or calling on Paul Martin to show up for the debate naked.