NDP rise, Libs drop Ipsos-Reid (May 21/04)

[maplesyrup]

Libs 35%, down 5%

Cons 26%, flatlined

NDP 18%, up 3% (only 8% behind Cons)

Ontario budget hurts federal Liberals: poll

What a great position for the NDP to be in on the eve of the election. The only party to be exhibiting positive momentum. Exactly where Jack Layton wanted to be.

[August1991]

Hey, MS, you missed this:

The real surprise, he said, "was that it wasn't the Tories who are the benefactors of that (anti-budget backlash). It was the NDP."

These polls are all showing the same numbers. That is the sample results are bouncing around the population numbers which are likely still steady. But the regional breakdowns are critical.

The Bloc Quebecois continues to widen its lead over the Liberals there, with 50 per cent support, up two points. The Liberals remained unchanged at 28 per cent. 

This means the Libs will get 20-25 seats and the BQ 50-55. This has been consistent for several months.

In Ontario -- a Liberal stronghold in the 2000 federal election, and where 106 seats will be contested this time -- Liberal support dropped seven points, falling from 49 to 42 per cent. But Conservative support rose just one point to 28 per cent, while the NDP jumped five points to 22 per cent.

It appears certain now that Lib support in Ontario has dropped. It's premature to say it has gone to the NDP. (Although that's perfectly plausible.) I would wait and see if this is confirmed in another poll.

Can anyone explain why PM PM is calling an election? Does he have some kind of death wish?

[maplesyrup]

The NDP is now only 8% behind the Cons, and the NDP definitely has the momentum going into this election.

I think the NDP will close the gap with the Cons within the first week of the election campaign.

I guess the fact that the NDP were the federal benefactors of the Ontario budget is no surprise to me as that is exactly what Susan Riley of the Ottawa Citizen had been forecasting. Susan is one sharp journalist. I might even have mentioned her predictions here on another thread.

My next prediction is that I think we are going to see some surprises in BC very soon.

[maplesyrup]

BC

Cons 31%

Libs 28%

NDP 20%

Grn 14%

AB

Cons 54%

Lib 25%

NDP 15%

SK/MB

Cons 40%

Lib 32%

NDP 24%

ON

Cons 28%

Lib 49%

NDP 22%

Que

BQ 50%

cons 7%

Lib 28%

NDP 8%

Atlantic

Cons 21%

Lib 50%

NDP 24%

[maplesyrup]

Does anyone think Mr Ditherer might get cold feet between now and Sunday? That's quite a healthy drop in the polls for the Martin Liberals, primarily at the expense of the rising fortunes of the Layton New Democrats.

[Alliance Fanatic]

The NDP has'nt gotten over 20% in a single poll you posted. I don't buy the crap that Layton has the momentun, I don't even see him on the news. I'll tell everybody the truth when Layton what running for the leadership of the ND's I was impressed with him at first, but as soon as he won the leadership he seemed to become a doofus. His policies are all out of whack, and he forced a member of his parliment not to vote on gay marriage because her constituents did not support gay marriage. I was especially turned off by his complete intolerance shown towards traditional values that Canadian's have held ever since confederation, and the values that 100,000 Canadians died for.

[BigGunner]

The NDP has'nt gotten over 20% in a single poll you posted. I don't buy the crap that Layton has the momentun, I don't even see him on the news. I'll tell everybody the truth when Layton what running for the leadership of the ND's I was impressed with him at first, but as soon as he won the leadership he seemed to become a doofus. His policies are all out of whack, and he forced a member of his parliment not to vote on gay marriage because her constituents did not support gay marriage. I was especially turned off by his complete intolerance shown towards traditional values that Canadian's have held ever since confederation, and the values that 100,000 Canadians died for.

100,000 Canadians fought and died in wars to protect our freedoms and rights, including democracy and freedom of speech.

This means that they fought for the right of Canadians to have view and opinions that you might agree with, and those that you do not.

You might think that Layton's policies are out of whack, but then you do not speak for every Canadian either. It might be that Canadians are open and receptive to the policies of Layton and the federal NDP.

As for momentum, the NDP does have it.

- In 2000, the combined federal vote of the Alliance and PC's was 37%...Ipos-Reid puts the Conservatives at 26% which is a half a point higher than the Alliance vote itself was from 2000.

- In 2000, the Liberals won 41% of the vote. Ipsos-Reid puts them at 35%. They are losing it.

- In 2000, the NDP won 11% of the vote. Today, Ipsos-Reid puts them at 18%...this is a full 7 points ahead of before, and 2 points away from their record 20% share in the 1988 election...

You do the math.

[Kiraly]

Gunner,

The Reform Party and the Alliance party had always polled low in between elections.

The actual vote results were always higher.

I wouldn't feel comfortable making any conclusions based on comparisons.

I think the change or trend in numbers for each pollster is much more informative.

[Michael Hardner]

The Reform Party and the Alliance party had always polled low in between elections.

The actual vote results were always higher.

I wouldn't feel comfortable making any conclusions based on comparisons

All true, but is there any real doubt that PM will be the next PM ?

[Kiraly]

Michael,

I think that Paul Martin does not have a lock on winning the election, so I would say that there is some doubt.

A year ago, it seemed like the next election would be a formality, much like the Lieberal leadership race.

But after seeing Martin's performance, I don't feel that that is the case anymore.

If I were forced to make a prediction, I would say that Martin will get less than 155 seats. He could very will be Prime Minister of a minority government, but there is a slight chance....

... that he wont be

[Kliege]

Michael Hardner is right Paul Martin will still be the prime minister after the election, but with a minority government and judging from the history of minority government they do not last too long, so Canada will mosts likely be back at the polls in a year in half or two, if the liberals get a minority government.

The main reason that Martin will still be Prime Minister is because the old P.C party that brought about the 1984 election landslide is not fully back together. Two of the misisng parts are( Reform and the Old P.C) but the Bloc ( found by angry Tory M.P's from Quebec) is still around and ahead in the polls in Quebec. So unless the Conservatives and the Bloc can get back together a Conservative majority or minority government is out of the question.

[Free Thinker]

Actually the NDP does have the most momentem going in to this election, although I know that they will not pass th Cons. Polls show that all the votes in Ontario by the Liberals are going to the NDP not the Conservatives

[NDP Newbie]

BC

Cons 31%

Libs 28%

NDP 20%

Grn 14%

AB

Cons 54%

Lib 25%

NDP 15%

SK/MB

Cons 40%

Lib 32%

NDP 24%

ON

Cons 28%

Lib 49%

NDP 22%

Que

BQ 50%

cons 7%

Lib 28%

NDP 8%

Atlantic

Cons 21%

Lib 50%

NDP 24%

BC:

The Conservatives are getting crushed here compared to their 2000 results, likely due to Campbell's unpopularity reflecting badly on right-wing politicians here in general. Both the Conservatives and Liberals will be pleased to see the eco-populist-libertarian-whatever Green party weakening the NDP the though, but many believe that Green supportters are very soft and may vote strategically.

Alberta:

I'm surpried to see the Conservatives at only 54%. That probably puts them in trouble in Edmonton. I'm expecting small Liberal gains here if these numbers hold.

Sask/MB:

While some argue that these NDP numbers are low, remember that both of these provinces have a very weak Liberal Party provincially, which has allowed the provincial NDP parties to take centrist/3rd Way positions on a number issues, thus attracting moderate voters who likely vote Liberal federally.

ON:

I'm surprised the Liberal numbers are still so high in Ontario. I suspect this will be different next week, to the boon of both the NDP and the Conservatives. A lot of McGuinty's left-leaning supporters provincially will punish the Liberals federally for the health care premiums, which may allow the NDP to get into 25% territorry. I would be very surprised to see the Conservatives below 32 - 33%

Quebec:

Many any argue that the CROP poll is more accurate than this one, but I really can't tell. The CROP poll has a larger sample size and more "reasonable" numbers for both the Liberals and the Bloc. (34 and 42 respectively) That being said, I'm a bit susipicous of the CROP poll, as it places the NDP at 15 and the Cons at 10. Either way, expect the Bloc to win in excess of 55 seats unless things improve significantly for the Liberals. Always remember though, that that there are at least 12 - 13 seats that the Bloc won't win no matter how obscenely well they may do in the popular vote.

Atlantic:

Harper's denigrating comments about Atlantic Canadians have hurt the Conservatives here, and unless Atlanatic Canadians come around or Harper finds a way to reach out to them and make ammends (which he's certainly intelligent enough to do, as much as I dislike his politics), expect embarrassingly low results for the Conservatives and possible losses for the NDP, whose gains may be offset by a Conservative Party bleeding away support to the Liberals. Godin and Alexa should win easily though.

[takeanumber]

Harper's denigrating comments about Atlantic Canadians have hurt the Conservatives here, and unless Atlanatic Canadians come around or Harper finds a way to reach out to them and make ammends (which he's certainly intelligent enough to do, as much as I dislike his politics), expect embarrassingly low results for the Conservatives and possible losses for the NDP, whose gains may be offset by a Conservative Party bleeding away support to the Liberals. Godin and Alexa should win easily though.

Harper genuinely believes in those comments.

He's not going to apologize for them. He won't apologize for something he believes in.

I hope Harper and his COR party lackey's get the shaft in Atlantic Canada.