NDP can expect a bumpy ride

[jdobbin]

Chantal Hebert's column:

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/article/695221

The immediate consequence of the high-wire political manoeuvrings of the past two weeks is that today MPs are returning to a destabilized Parliament.

By withdrawing his support of the minority Conservatives, Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff has shifted on to the third parties the onus of keeping the 40th Parliament going.

One could argue that is how things should always have been. An effective official Opposition – one that both critiques the directions of the government and offers alternative policies – is an essential part of the checks and balances of the parliamentary system.

As the past few years have demonstrated, the task of chief critic of the government is not easily reconcilable with the contrary necessity of supporting the regime at every crucial step of the way in the House of Commons.

She goes on to say how uncomfortable it going to be for Harper and Layton to keep Parlaiment going from here on in.

Over the past two weeks, Layton has had a taste of the take-it-or-leave Conservative approach to minority rule. If Parliament were a sandbox – and there are days when that is what it resembles – then the NDP leader would be the child who will not take no for an answer from an unwilling playmate, even when sand is repeatedly thrown in his face.

[Moonbox]

Jdobbin where would you be without the Toronto Star?

[scribblet]

LOL

Obviously if we have destabilization Michael Ignatieff is the one to blame, but I'm sure it will be spun some other way.

[fellowtraveller]

I think Layton will be much more uncomfortable than Harper.

After all. Layton is the guy who votes against little bills like the budget without ever having seen them or having any ideas what is inside those covers. He is not even curious.

Can't do that any more.

He'll have to come up with plausible fantasies every day about how Harper is his trained monkey. Poor Jack, this won't be fun.

Of course his problem is not ideology, it is money - like he doesn't have much.

He will in January, when the taxpayer subsidy gravy train stops at Jacks house agin, and he has some coin to buy some courage, and dump Harper.

The Tories can't be that worried- Ignatieff got little bounce off his newfound toughness and the Tories are , as always, rich and ready.

[jdobbin]

Jdobbin where would you be without the Toronto Star?

I hardly ever quote from it. I find it a very regional newspaper. But feel free to prove me wrong by showing how many times I reference it. Bet you'd be surprised how little it is.

[jdobbin]

Obviously if we have destabilization Michael Ignatieff is the one to blame, but I'm sure it will be spun some other way.

So Harper once again is blameless in your eyes?

[jdobbin]

The Tories can't be that worried- Ignatieff got little bounce off his newfound toughness and the Tories are , as always, rich and ready.

And now the Liberals are rich and ready as well.

This gives the Liberals the opportunity to break free from keeping the Tories going. The blame will now fall on the NDP.

[Rovik]

And now the Liberals are rich and ready as well.

This gives the Liberals the opportunity to break free from keeping the Tories going. The blame will now fall on the NDP.

The difference is this. The NDP will be voting on something (EI changes) that they support. On the other hand in the last few years, the Liberals would support the Cons or abstain against bills they said they were against. Therefore, there is no comparsion and in fact any comparsion would be Liberal spin.

I don't believe the NDP would keep the Con govt going, if the Cons put up a bill that the NDP were against, so even if the Cons survive this vote, I don't believe they would survive many more (unless they are willing to compromise to the NDP, which unless Steve changes his stripes, is not going to happen.)

[jdobbin]

The difference is this. The NDP will be voting on something (EI changes) that they support. On the other hand in the last few years, the Liberals would support the Cons or abstain against bills they said they were against. Therefore, there is no comparsion and in fact any comparsion would be Liberal spin.

The spin is that the NDP said they were the least likely to vote to keep Harper in office because he could not be trusted.

NDP support is already sinking. Why do you think that is?

I don't believe the NDP would keep the Con govt going, if the Cons put up a bill that the NDP were against, so even if the Cons survive this vote, I don't believe they would survive many more (unless they are willing to compromise to the NDP, which unless Steve changes his stripes, is not going to happen.)

I guess we'll have to see.

I don't see the NDP any more ready to go a month from now than they are now, do you?

[dlkenny]

Yeah, it might be bumpy but if it works it's better than going to an election. Does anyone think things will change significantly if another election is held? I predict another minority government, though perhaps it might swing into the Liberal's court. An election would be a waste of money in my opinion.

[Topaz]

Jack was on CTV yesterday, and he still hasn't really said he would support the Tories, just that he would look at the bill. I would think Layton has to be very careful because if he does decide not to support it and bring down the government, the Tories could get a majority and then Layton would have to bare the responsibility of that and having to stand in the Commons receiving even more personal attacks from the Tories. http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...?hub=TopStories

[Wild Bill]

I hardly ever quote from it. I find it a very regional newspaper. But feel free to prove me wrong by showing how many times I reference it. Bet you'd be surprised how little it is.

You may be doing with without realizing it, jdobbin. Who owns your local paper?

When TorStar bought my local paper I immediately noticed a change in the slant of the reporting. They also featured Toronto Star 'national' columnists. The Spectator became a LOT more Liberal friendly!

Perhaps that's what's going on in your town.

[jdobbin]

You may be doing with without realizing it, jdobbin. Who owns your local paper?

The Winnipeg Free Press is not owned by any major publishing company. It is locally owned, one of the very last.

It sometimes features National Post writers, sometimes other writers from other publications including the Economist.

When TorStar bought my local paper I immediately noticed a change in the slant of the reporting. They also featured Toronto Star 'national' columnists. The Spectator became a LOT more Liberal friendly!

Perhaps that's what's going on in your town.

Torstar owns nothing in my market. However, Chantal Hebert is often featured nationally on TV and in the press. I don't necessarily consider her Liberal friendly nor friendly to any party really.

[Moonbox]

I hardly ever quote from it. I find it a very regional newspaper.

You quote it enough to have me regularly mocking you for quoting it all the time.

But feel free to prove me wrong by showing how many times I reference it. Bet you'd be surprised how little it is.

Haha, typical Jdobbin defense. "It's not true unless you spend a ridiculous amount of time sorting through hundreds of my past threads"

[jdobbin]

You quote it enough to have me regularly mocking you for quoting it all the time.

I probably reference it about once every month or so and defy you to show differently and that is why I mock you for mentioning it.

I simply don't think of it is a national paper and since I don't live in Toronto, I don't read it since I generally have no idea about City Hall there, local crime or about the latest news of the Bluejays.

Haha, typical Jdobbin defense. "It's not true unless you spend a ridiculous amount of time sorting through hundreds of my past threads"

Let me simply say then that you are wrong. I quote from the Toronto Star as much as I might from the Calgary Herald. And the times I quote from the Herald are usually for a Don Martin column.

Since I hear from you about once a month on the issue, I'll assume that is as much as you ever see a quote from that paper. I miss most of the Angus Reid polls from there since I only catch them later the next day or so when they appear on Reuters newsfeeds.

Edited September 15, 2009 by jdobbin

[M.Dancer]

Ho hum....

http://www.mapleleafweb.com/forums//index....&pid=463662

http://www.mapleleafweb.com/forums//index....&pid=447615

http://www.mapleleafweb.com/forums//index....&pid=442276

http://www.mapleleafweb.com/forums//index....&pid=400495

http://www.mapleleafweb.com/forums//index....&pid=372319

http://www.mapleleafweb.com/forums//index....&pid=368649

http://www.mapleleafweb.com/forums//index....&pid=350106

http://www.mapleleafweb.com/forums//index....&pid=320968

http://www.mapleleafweb.com/forums//index....&pid=313883

http://www.mapleleafweb.com/forums//index....&pid=308134

http://www.mapleleafweb.com/forums//index....&pid=297217

http://www.mapleleafweb.com/forums//index....&pid=293798

http://www.mapleleafweb.com/forums//index....&pid=280446

http://www.mapleleafweb.com/forums//index....&pid=280427

http://www.mapleleafweb.com/forums//index....&pid=266851

http://www.mapleleafweb.com/forums//index....&pid=248059

http://www.mapleleafweb.com/forums//index....&pid=245546

http://www.mapleleafweb.com/forums//index....&pid=223589

[Wild Bill]

Ho hum....

http://www.mapleleafweb.com/forums//index....&pid=463662

http://www.mapleleafweb.com/forums//index....&pid=447615

http://www.mapleleafweb.com/forums//index....&pid=442276

http://www.mapleleafweb.com/forums//index....&pid=400495

http://www.mapleleafweb.com/forums//index....&pid=372319

http://www.mapleleafweb.com/forums//index....&pid=368649

http://www.mapleleafweb.com/forums//index....&pid=350106

http://www.mapleleafweb.com/forums//index....&pid=320968

http://www.mapleleafweb.com/forums//index....&pid=313883

http://www.mapleleafweb.com/forums//index....&pid=308134

http://www.mapleleafweb.com/forums//index....&pid=297217

http://www.mapleleafweb.com/forums//index....&pid=293798

http://www.mapleleafweb.com/forums//index....&pid=280446

http://www.mapleleafweb.com/forums//index....&pid=280427

http://www.mapleleafweb.com/forums//index....&pid=266851

http://www.mapleleafweb.com/forums//index....&pid=248059

http://www.mapleleafweb.com/forums//index....&pid=245546

http://www.mapleleafweb.com/forums//index....&pid=223589

Wow, Morris! That's sure a lot of Star stuff!

I didn't think jdobbin would leave himself open for such an easy one!

[M.Dancer]

Wow, Morris! That's sure a lot of Star stuff!

I didn't think jdobbin would leave himself open for such an easy one!

I got bored after the 4 page...and those are only posts where he links the star. There are an equal number where he references the star.

If it weren't for jdob linking the Star, I would never read it...

[jdobbin]

Wow, Morris! That's sure a lot of Star stuff!

I didn't think jdobbin would leave himself open for such an easy one!

As I said, about once a month. Look for yourself.

And many of them are from Angus Reid polls, a national poll.

Edited September 15, 2009 by jdobbin

[Wild Bill]

I got bored after the 4 page...and those are only posts where he links the star. There are an equal number where he references the star.

If it weren't for jdob linking the Star, I would never read it...

I keep getting telephone solicitors wanting me to take a Star subcription. Since I don't live in Toronto I have little interest. Still, I have great fun with the callers. I explain to them that I don't need to read the Star since I already know what's in it. They ask me what do I mean and I tell them: Every page says "Liberals good! Everyone else is bad!". The only variety is whatever topic they write around the same theme.

Once or twice I actually get them laughing with me!

[fellowtraveller]

And now the Liberals are rich and ready as well.

This gives the Liberals the opportunity to break free from keeping the Tories going. The blame will now fall on the NDP.

If they were ready, why the utterly lukewarm caucus reaction to the newfoudn Ignatieff spine? Why hasn't there been any bounce in the polls for the Liberals at all?

His spine is personal: he has looked at the present and decided the steady diet of turd sandwiches eaten steadily by the Liberals for years and lost his taste for them. I don't think his caucus is quite as ready to face the electorate. I do credit him with recognizing the relative weakness of the NDP and laying the support burden in them for a bit.

Ignatieff is tired of waiting and sees one of two outcomes ahead: either he is Prime Minister soon or he heads back home to Harvard.

[jdobbin]

If they were ready, why the utterly lukewarm caucus reaction to the newfoudn Ignatieff spine? Why hasn't there been any bounce in the polls for the Liberals at all?

The polls really haven't budged when you look at the whole of them for the two main parties. If they showed the Tories in a majority, Harper would have stuck a poison pill in there so Layton had no choice but to vote it down. The Liberals were looking to put pressure where it needs to go first: The NDP.

The NDP numbers are down and that is in a number of polls. We'll see it continues to face pressure.

His spine is personal: he has looked at the present and decided the steady diet of turd sandwiches eaten steadily by the Liberals for years and lost his taste for them. I don't think his caucus is quite as ready to face the electorate. I do credit him with recognizing the relative weakness of the NDP and laying the support burden in them for a bit.

Ignatieff is tired of waiting and sees one of two outcomes ahead: either he is Prime Minister soon or he heads back home to Harvard.

As Strategic Counsel pointed out, the Liberals were not going to break away from the pack if they supported the government and gave the NDP a free ride.

Now, they can say as of this Friday they have a monkey off their back. We'll see what happens in the polls thereafter.

I still expect that even if the NDP supports the Tories through the fall, the Tories themselves will pull the plug because they don't believe in term limits.

[Oleg Bach]

There are no "Tories" - there is just big buisness. The NDP has matured and like any other group will suck up to those that butter their bread. Where we get this idea that we still have real conservatives in existance in Canada baffles me. Who ever holds the bread is lord and master...and Jack has figured that out. He has become a realist and knows that there is no point in fighting a force that is NOT a political party - so he is joining them..He will forfeit his youthful ideals for a tiny bit of power..there is no other way for him to achieve at least a little something.

[punked]

The polls really haven't budged when you look at the whole of them for the two main parties. If they showed the Tories in a majority, Harper would have stuck a poison pill in there so Layton had no choice but to vote it down. The Liberals were looking to put pressure where it needs to go first: The NDP.

The NDP numbers are down and that is in a number of polls. We'll see it continues to face pressure.

As Strategic Counsel pointed out, the Liberals were not going to break away from the pack if they supported the government and gave the NDP a free ride.

Now, they can say as of this Friday they have a monkey off their back. We'll see what happens in the polls thereafter.

I still expect that even if the NDP supports the Tories through the fall, the Tories themselves will pull the plug because they don't believe in term limits.

No the NDP's numbers aren't really down. They haven't dipped below 15% for the last year. The Liberals aren't going to get votes from them with Iggy's policies no matter how much the entire party puts into the attack Dobbin just face it. The Liberals voting against an Expansion Bill and the popular home tax credit isn't going to win them browny points either. See when the Bloc and the NDP voted down bills they would say "This bill hurt women" or "This bill hurt Canada's place a progressive nation" The Liberals are going to vote down bills and say "This bill will help Canadians there is no way I can support that" Bet that will pay great.

You guys need a new strategy cause who ever is running your party doesn't get it.

[Goat Boy©]

By these numbers the NDP could be in for a smooth ride:

http://www.ottawacitizen.com/news/Conserva...5036/story.html

The Conservatives have the support of 39 per cent of decided voters, according to the Ipsos Reid survey, commissioned by Canwest News Service and Global National. The Tory support level is unchanged from the last Ipsos national poll on Aug. 21.

The Liberals have 30 per cent support, up two percentage points from Aug. 21.The NDP dropped two points to 12 per cent, while the Green party fell two points to eight per cent. The NDP received 18 per cent support in the last federal election in October 2008, but has fallen to 12 per cent in four Ipsos polls since then.

The Bloc Quebecois has nine per cent on a national basis. Seven per cent of respondents were undecided.

Meanwhile, it appears Ignatieff, who announced this month his party would no longer support the government, would suffer the most from any backlash. If there's an election this fall, 54 per cent of Canadians would blame Ignatieff and the Liberals, while 35 per cent would blame Harper and the Conservatives. Of those who blame Ignatieff, 51 per cent said they would vote against the party as a result.

If the Liberals are responsible for an election, it's a gamble, but the possibility stands that the NDP could profit rather handsomely from it with all those Ontario riding's with close calls.

The Liberals have the most to lose, and most to gain.