Ignatieff calls it!

[Argus]

Ontario is largely CPC territory and has been for a long time. Other than Toronto and parts of the GTA, it's like 90% Tory.

Yes, and the reason Tory values don't resonate in Toronto is half the population is made up of immigrants. Not to mention, of course, the hundreds of thousands of gays who congregate there, few of whom are likely to be voting Tory.

[Argus]

Mr. Harper's stances on gay marriage and abortion are pretty obvious examples of this,

People seem to forget that the Liberals ardent support for gay rights is nothing but political posturing. They opposed gay marriage, and Chretien had to withdraw a change in the marriage act during his tenure and make alterations to satisfy LIBERAL MPs that the new act would not in any way, shape or form condone or encourage gay marriage. It was only when pollsters and image consultants convinced the party leadership that this would make a good issue to combat the "regressive, evil Conservatives" that they swung around and suddenly became in favour of gay marriage.

As for abortion. Again, there are anti-abortion MPs in all the parties - except the NDP, which won't allow any deviation of thought or belief on social issues. The more infamous of them was Tom Wappel and Roseanne Skoke. It took the NDP to get rid of Roseanne as Liberals certainly weren't going to. The NDP hated her so much that they swarmed the Liberal's riding association with phony memberships and voted in another candidate prior to an election.

[jbg]

That's the nature of minority governments. They generally don't last too much longer than a year, the exception being Harper's term from 2006-2008, to date in our history that's the longest surviving minority government.

I think Pearson and maybe one other may have lasted a bit longer.

[Dave_ON]

Ontario is largely CPC territory and has been for a long time. Other than Toronto and parts of the GTA, it's like 90% Tory.

I have to disagree. There are 106 seats in Ontario. 51 are CPC 38 are LPC and 18 are NDP. In 2006 it was CPC 40 LPC 54 NDP 12. So largely JBG is correct. Traditionally Ontario is a LPC stronghold. Who knows what this next election will bring.

[jbg]

I have to disagree. There are 106 seats in Ontario. 51 are CPC 38 are LPC and 18 are NDP. In 2006 it was CPC 40 LPC 54 NDP 12. So largely JBG is correct. Traditionally Ontario is a LPC stronghold. Who knows what this next election will bring.

Thanks Dave_ON.

I do note that 51 + 38 + 18 = 107. Revised numbers?

[Jerry J. Fortin]

The Liberals will gain many seat in Ontario, the EI thing must be remembered.

[madmax]

Ontario is largely CPC territory and has been for a long time. Other than Toronto and parts of the GTA, it's like 90% Tory.

Not so, has been very much Liberal Turf for at least 15 years. Since the collapse of the PCs in 1993, the Reform took some time to bust in. The CA not much better and the CPC finally getting competitive in the past few

years. Toronto has been virtually a Liberal Rock, and to take a phrase from jdobbin, most are yellow dog ridings, of which few can penetrate although Layton did so, and his wife required two attempts. Neither can be considered safe seats, and could revert back to the LPC, although Layton will likely hold his.

The NDP swept more Northern Ontario Seats then did the CPC. The NDP with a Toronto Leader, has more Rural support then Ed Broadbent ever had. The CPC took the Kenora Seat.

However, all these recent gains of CPC and NDP could swing back to the LPC if their campaign is anything but a complete disaster.

Ontario's default party has been LPC.

And IIRC you are in Guelph which is SO Liberal, that even with 2 strong candidates and campaigns from both the Greens and NDP, with them taking 37% of the vote combined (note in many ridings their combined average is still in single digits), the LPC candidate still handily defeated the CPC candidate who lost votes and this inspite of a disasterous Liberal campaign and weak leader.

[Moonbox]

Not so, has been very much Liberal Turf for at least 15 years. Since the collapse of the PCs in 1993, the Reform took some time to bust in. The CA not much better and the CPC finally getting competitive in the past few

years.

The CPC was a divided mess for the last 20 years. It barely even existed. The Liberals have a stranglehold on Toronto but other than that it doesn't have a firm hold on Ontario at all.

The NDP swept more Northern Ontario Seats then did the CPC. The NDP with a Toronto Leader, has more Rural support then Ed Broadbent ever had. The CPC took the Kenora Seat.

Northern Ontario is dirt poor and might as well be Manitoba. There are also very few seats up there.

Ontario's default party has been LPC.

Throughout the 90's and up to 2006 maybe. Even so I was taking exception to the earlier poster who said Ontario is a Liberal stronghold. Clearly it isn't considering the last two elections (other than Toronto) and historically the big blue machine has dominated provincially.

And IIRC you are in Guelph which is SO Liberal, that even with 2 strong candidates and campaigns from both the Greens and NDP, with them taking 37% of the vote combined (note in many ridings their combined average is still in single digits), the LPC candidate still handily defeated the CPC candidate who lost votes and this inspite of a disasterous Liberal campaign and weak leader.

The CPC candidate in Guelph was a moron and she was competing with a well-liked, well-known and popular lawyer with credentials up the wazoo. That said, it was 32% vs 29% in favor of the Liberals. The NDP and Greens were a DISTANT third and a large part of those votes are generated from a university that boasts like 25% of Guelph's population. Guelph was a red spot in a sea of blue and it was the same around the province.

If it weren't for Toronto, the LPC would do terrible in Ontario. It's the same throughout most of the country. Vancouver, Montreal and Toronto is all the Liberals have to hang on to right now, which speaks volumes of how they run their show.

Edited September 2, 2009 by Moonbox

[Dave_ON]

Thanks Dave_ON.

I do note that 51 + 38 + 18 = 107. Revised numbers?

Nope my bad it's 51 38 17 sorry bout that!

[madmax]

The CPC candidate in Guelph was a moron and she was competing with a well-liked, well-known and popular lawyer with credentials up the wazoo.

LOL.. You must have been twisted in knots heading to the polls last year.

[punked]

Flippy Floopy Flip Flop

September 1, 2009 - Michael Ignatieff's speech - Liberal Caucus: We can do better :

Stephen Harper doesn’t get it. We do.

For more than a century, we’ve built our prosperity on our natural resources. But if we’re to prosper in the next century, we have to turn our resources into products and technologies the whole world wants to buy.

We can’t get there unless we have the vision and ambition to build a competitive, compassionate future for Canada.We can’t get there unless we open up new markets for Canadian exports in countries like China and India.

We can’t get there with Stephen Harper.

Stephen Harper has been prime minister for four years, and he’s never visited China. We’ll be there next week. After that, we’ll plan a trip to India.

September 2, 2009 - Ignatieff scuttles China visit:

Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff is cancelling a week-long trip to China

due to his self-declared threat of a fall federal election, The Canadian Press

has learned.

[madmax]

Flippy Floopy Flip Flop

Oh shit, I am pissing my pants. Harper hasn't visited China, and I am not going to either.. SO THERE.

Who needs 22 minutes... We've got Politicians.

[Moonbox]

LOL.. You must have been twisted in knots heading to the polls last year.

I've voted Liberal before. I'd do it again if there was someone I felt would lower spending and keep taxes low. Everything Ignatieff has said thus far indicates otherwise.

[Dave_ON]

The CPC was a divided mess for the last 20 years. It barely even existed. The Liberals have a stranglehold on Toronto but other than that it doesn't have a firm hold on Ontario at all.

If it weren't for Toronto, the LPC would do terrible in Ontario. It's the same throughout most of the country. Vancouver, Montreal and Toronto is all the Liberals have to hang on to right now, which speaks volumes of how they run their show.

The LPC performs better than most other parties in almost all cities especially Ontario. London included, my particular riding of North Centre has been LPC for close to 25 years. All of London was red in fact until this last election when the encumbent Sue Barnes was beaten by fewer than 2000 votes by the CPC canidate, to everyone's surprise. I don't recall what happened in London Fanshawe but I know it didn't go to the CPC. Ontario has a very distinct Rural/Urban divide. Due to the under representation in urban areas there are more Rural ridings.

This last election was an anomoly and I think we will see many LPC gains in Ontario and Quebec.

[Moonbox]

The election before must have been an anomaly too.

The fact of the matter is that the vast majority of Liberal votes in Ontario are in Toronto. That's practically a province by itself. It's the same in Canada's other 2 big cities. It's not really an anomaly. The 90's and early 2000's were the anomaly because the Liberals enjoyed better than usual fortunes due to an impotent right wing.

I'm not saying the Liberals don't get a good chunk of their votes in Ontario. I'm just saying it's not exactly a Liberal stronghold like the West is for the CPC.

[Mr.Canada]

The Liberals will gain many seat in Ontario, the EI thing must be remembered.

Yes, the gutting of EI by Martin must be remembered. PM Harper adding 5 weeks of entitlement will also be remembered.

Thank you for bringing it up.

[madmax]

I'm not saying the Liberals don't get a good chunk of their votes in Ontario. I'm just saying it's not exactly a Liberal stronghold like the West is for the CPC.

I'd agree with that. Few Liberal Seats in Ontario get even close to 60% voter support.

I do believe that these huge numbers out West provide alot of DEADWOOD candidates.

[madmax]

Yes, the gutting of EI by Martin (AND HARPER) must be remembered. PM Harper adding 5 weeks of entitlement will also be remembered.

There are lots of changes to EI. More clawbacks, hooks and stick it to yahs, then you can shake a stick at.

One Conservative (Card Carrying Riding Association) Pals of mine, went BALLISTIC when his time came up.

ZIP ZIP ZOOM TO THE MP!!!! YOU HAVE TO DO SOMETHING ABOUT THIS>>> AT LEAST FOR ME>>> THIS IS WRONG!!!

My friend couldn't care how many weeks or how little EI pays "IF" eligible until it was his turn.

Then it became important. THe most important thing on his mind. Not 15 minutes pass from his EI Rejection before on his way to the MP.

[Sir Bandelot]

"Ignatieff calls it"

I predict it will be another nail in his political coffin. Liberals are grandstanding on this election. There really is no serious current issue that the Canadian public wants to address in a vote, meaning, that another party would be better at. For Ignatieff, it's an election of convenience.

Not that I want to see Stephen Harper and his gang stay power any longer. The neocon ideology is dead and needs a good burial... but not to be replaced with an almost identical, neoliberal ideology.

[jdobbin]

I predict it will be another nail in his political coffin. Liberals are grandstanding on this election. There really is no serious current issue that the Canadian public wants to address in a vote, meaning, that another party would be better at. For Ignatieff, it's an election of convenience.

The serious issue is the deficit. If it is not addressed now, it could be 10 or more years that we have it according to our own budget officer. It is already forecast to grow five years. By the time we do think about it, we might be in the cycle of downturn.

[Jerry J. Fortin]

The debt and the deficit are two fingers of one hand. That same hand has a finger for spending and a thumb to hold onto the spending habits called a bureaucracy. The wrist can change its public perception of a change of direction but the fact remains the fact that we are in debt up to the eyeballs.

[nicky10013]

"Ignatieff calls it"

I predict it will be another nail in his political coffin. Liberals are grandstanding on this election. There really is no serious current issue that the Canadian public wants to address in a vote, meaning, that another party would be better at. For Ignatieff, it's an election of convenience.

Not that I want to see Stephen Harper and his gang stay power any longer. The neocon ideology is dead and needs a good burial... but not to be replaced with an almost identical, neoliberal ideology.

Ignatieff like most Liberals seem to be more and more 3rd way liberals. Ignatieff, Chretien, Martin, Clinton, Obama and most importantly Tony Blair as he founded the 3rd Way, though all with different political abilities (some obviously better than others) have a general common thread in their ideology. They pursue the benefits of free trade and economic liberalisation (a more right of centre stance) combined with the social programmes, benefit and the general safety net at home. This formula created 23 million jobs in the states, many jobs here, and multiple governments for both Labour, the Liberals and Clinton. Seems to me to be a pretty solid basis for government. It isn't neoliberal or neoconservative.

Also, ironically, there may be some workings of a deal between the Bloc and the Conservatives as per CBC news.

Edited September 2, 2009 by nicky10013

[madmax]

Ignatieff like most Liberals seem to be more and more 3rd way liberals.

Actually he appears like a Bush Neo Con supporting US imperialism. However, it does put him with Tony Blair .. the Poodle.

[Wild Bill]

The LPC performs better than most other parties in almost all cities especially Ontario. London included, my particular riding of North Centre has been LPC for close to 25 years. All of London was red in fact until this last election when the encumbent Sue Barnes was beaten by fewer than 2000 votes by the CPC canidate, to everyone's surprise. I don't recall what happened in London Fanshawe but I know it didn't go to the CPC. Ontario has a very distinct Rural/Urban divide. Due to the under representation in urban areas there are more Rural ridings.

This last election was an anomoly and I think we will see many LPC gains in Ontario and Quebec.

This might be worth a thread of its own. Why is the Ontario Liberal support so confined to cities?

What is it about the party that makes it so unappealing to voters outside 416 land?

It IS mostly Toronto, at least for now! Hamilton used to send Liberals from almost all of its ridings but not anymore. It's become NDP turf, with a couple of CPC exceptions. So it's not just a city/rural thing. Except for a few seats it seems to be a Toronto/anywhere else thing.

So much for the 'big tent' approach! It's become similar to the NDP support of unions and those on government assistance. Despite the CCF origins few Ontario rural folks ever vote NDP.

Just curious.

[bush_cheney2004]

Actually he appears like a Bush Neo Con supporting US imperialism. However, it does put him with Tony Blair .. the Poodle.

Well, to be fair....most Canadian PMs have always done so. But yes, Mr. Ignatieff would make a fine "poodle" for Mr. Obama.....Best in Show !