Election 2009

[daniel]

Or that upstanding Conservative Prime Minister saying one thing one day and something else the next.

[ToadBrother]

Hein?

G&M

Plans, plans and more plans. If you want to call that "tossing it back into Harper's lap", go ahead. Ignatieff is a flake. He crumbles under pressure.

I call it "having Harper by the balls and squeezing". Harper lost the momentum to Iggy last December, and he's never got it back. Whether you like Iggy or not, when you look at Harper, look for Iggy right behind him with a gun to his head.

We'll have EI reform very soon now.

[Smallc]

Ontario has 106 seats.

[August1991]

If Harper doesn't respond then we have an election starting Friday. Harper is a sociopath so it is quite possible that he will call the election himself.

Sorry, Ignatieff looks like that knight in Monty Python with no arms or legs. If we were going to have an election this summer, Ignatieff would have said so.

Dobbin, you don't seem to get it. Ignatieff can't throw this back into Harper's lap. Harper is PM.

I call it "having Harper by the balls and squeezing". Harper lost the momentum to Iggy last December, and he's never got it back. Whether you like Iggy or not, when you look at Harper, look for Iggy right behind him with a gun to his head.

Hein? (See my response to Dobbin above.)

We'll have EI reform very soon now.

No, we may have a plan for a reform.

-----

This is all irrelevant except to the political obsessive nerds who watch this closely. By September, everyone will have forgotten this little drama except possibly one detail. Ignatieff is not reliable. He creates alot of noise and then doesn't show up.

Urban Dictionary definition of a flake:

1. flake 915 up, 53 down

n. An unreliable person; someone who agrees to do something, but never follows through.

1. John called in sick to work again today. He's such a flake.

2. Mary said she would do the research for our project, but it's been a week and she hasn't done a thing. She's such a flake.

3. Michael created all this drama about an election but then he backed away from voting the government down. He's such a flake.

[jdobbin]

Sorry, Ignatieff looks like that knight in Monty Python with no arms or legs. If we were going to have an election this summer, Ignatieff would have said so.

Dobbin, you don't seem to get it. Ignatieff can't throw this back into Harper's lap. Harper is PM.

You don't seem to get it. If Harper does not respond, we are off to an election this Friday. Ignatieff needs cover if he is going to vote no confidence.

Harper is that much of a sociopath, he might call the election himself.

This is all irrelevant except to the political obsessive nerds who watch this closely. By September, everyone will have forgotten this little drama except possibly one detail. Ignatieff is not reliable. He creates alot of noise and then doesn't show up.

And Harper is reliable? Yeesh. Even you have to admit his promise on no deficit is unreliable.

I suspect you are wrong. Just as wrong as when you predicted that Obama would not win the nomination or the election. Just as wrong as when other predicted that Harper would not call the last election himself.

Harper can't be trusted. Even when he should be coasting to a majority, he trips up over his desire to attack rather than govern.

Edited June 15, 2009 by jdobbin

[August1991]

You don't seem to get it. If Harper does not respond, we are off to an election this Friday. Ignatieff needs cover if he is going to vote no confidence.

No.... This Friday, Ignatieff will once again ask for more plans.

Ignatieff had his chance.

And Harper is reliable?

Yes, he is. Harper is no flake. You call him a sociopath. Others call him cold-blooded, heartless. He's no flake.

Moreover, Harper promised to cut the GST and then he did. The Liberals never do what they promise.

-----

Anyway, don't worry about this littel drama. Outside of the political obsessives, no one knows anything about it and in a few days, it will all be history. September will present a new political cycle. Your guy Ignatieff is still the new sexxy guy in town.

[Dave_ON]

No.... This Friday, Ignatieff will once again ask for more plans.

Ignatieff had his chance.

Yes, he is. Harper is no flake. You call him a sociopath. Others call him cold-blooded, heartless. He's no flake.

Moreover, Harper promised to cut the GST and then he did. The Liberals never do what they promise.

-----

He's quite right Mr. Harper does make good on his promises. He also promised that when he was done we wouldn't recognize Canada anymore. So far so good...

[ToadBrother]

Moreover, Harper promised to cut the GST and then he did. The Liberals never do what they promise.

And what a moronic mistake that was.

[August1991]

He's quite right Mr. Harper does make good on his promises. He also promised that when he was done we wouldn't recognize Canada anymore. So far so good...

No, that was how the Liberal attack ads described Harper. Remember the dissolving flag ad?

Except Dave, that's how the Liberal Party understands Canada. What Liberals fail to understand is that the Liberal Party does not own or define Canada. Canada is much greater than any political party, or to use the language of modern Liberals, Canada is greater than any particular brand.

----

Natural Governing Party? In the past 25 years, the Conservatives have been in power 12 years and the Liberals for 13 years. Stephane Dion never became PM and Ignatieff seems well on his way to being another Liberal leader in opposition only.

It would be wise if Liberals accepted that they are simply another political party. Liberals could use a decade or two out of power.

And what a moronic mistake that was.

Huh? Edited June 15, 2009 by August1991

[daniel]

Tom Flanagan doesn't think much of Harper. Harper's a flip-flop who doesn't stand for anything anymore except hanging on to power.

[normanchateau]

Tom Flanagan doesn't think much of Harper. Harper's a flip-flop who doesn't stand for anything anymore except hanging on to power.

It's not so much that he doesn't stand for anything anymore. He never stood for anything. He began as a Young Liberal in Toronto then decided to become a Progressive Conservative in Alberta then joined Reform but had a falling out with Preston Manning. So he moved on to become president of the National Citizens Coalition until Manning was replaced by Stockwell Day. Then Harper saw his opportunity to replace Day in the Alliance Party. Tom Flanagan was Harper's Chief of Staff then but Flanagan has now let Canadians know exactly what he thinks of Harper. Flanagan is a brilliant strategist. Harper will flounder without him.

[Jerry J. Fortin]

Steve wanted to be the P.M. He has been there and done that. Now he can go away and say he was the P.M. who cut taxes and funded the Armed Forces and bailed out GM and Chrysler to the tune of 2 million dollars a job.

He can also say that the best he could do was get a minority government. Oh well, nice knowing you Steve, enjoy the summer working like crazy to hang onto that job of yours.

[normanchateau]

He can also say that the best he could do was get a minority government. Oh well, nice knowing you Steve, enjoy the summer working like crazy to hang onto that job of yours.

He's got to hang on to that job. He became a professional politician while in his 20's and the only other job he's ever held is as a mailroom clerk in Edmonton. Harper's only significant income has been as a politician. He has no career to fall back on and had made sure that he has no obvious successor.

[August1991]

It's not so much that he doesn't stand for anything anymore. He never stood for anything. He began as a Young Liberal in Toronto then decided to become a Progressive Conservative in Alberta then joined Reform but had a falling out with Preston Manning. So he moved on to become president of the National Citizens Coalition until Manning was replaced by Stockwell Day. Then Harper saw his opportunity to replace Day in the Alliance Party. Tom Flanagan was Harper's Chief of Staff then but Flanagan has now let Canadians know exactly what he thinks of Harper. Flanagan is a brilliant strategist. Harper will flounder without him.

Uh, what happened to Harper's secret agenda?

Are you now suggesting that he has no secret agenda? What is it? Is Harper on a crusade to change Canada or is he just some guy who will do/say anything to get power?

Please, if you're going to attack Harper successfully, it helps to have a coherent story. He can't be both wishy-washy and an American neo-con.

[Jerry J. Fortin]

First he gets put on probation, now he is failing his report card. Poor little Stevie the Wonder Politician. He either comes up with the written "two page" explanation for his shoddy work or he gets suspended pending public reference. He may yet be expelled.

I may be jumping the gun here, but I think the professor is going to provide some lessons in poli-sci 101 to the PM.

[daniel]

... He can't be both wishy-washy and an American neo-con.

Don't be so surprised. More ironic things have happened in his government.

[Jerry J. Fortin]

Don't be so surprised. More ironic things have happened in his government.

Like the bailout and stimulus packages?

[ToadBrother]

Uh, what happened to Harper's secret agenda?

Are you now suggesting that he has no secret agenda? What is it? Is Harper on a crusade to change Canada or is he just some guy who will do/say anything to get power?

Please, if you're going to attack Harper successfully, it helps to have a coherent story. He can't be both wishy-washy and an American neo-con.

Are the two mutually exclusive? Can't Harper have a secret agenda *AND* be willing to do anything to keep power?

At any rate, I do think Harper has wandered so far away from roots now that it's pointless to use the old attack "he's a Neo-Con, he's a Neo-Con". The new attack, if I were in charge of the Liberals would be "He's doing what we're telling him. He's impotent, held hostage by his own caucus and by the Opposition. Cut out the middle man and vote Iggy and the Liberals!"

[Jerry J. Fortin]

Are the two mutually exclusive? Can't Harper have a secret agenda *AND* be willing to do anything to keep power?

At any rate, I do think Harper has wandered so far away from roots now that it's pointless to use the old attack "he's a Neo-Con, he's a Neo-Con". The new attack, if I were in charge of the Liberals would be "He's doing what we're telling him. He's impotent, held hostage by his own caucus and by the Opposition. Cut out the middle man and vote Iggy and the Liberals!"

Ouch! The truth hurts!

[jdobbin]

No.... This Friday, Ignatieff will once again ask for more plans.

Ignatieff had his chance.

Harper appears to be backing down from his no compromise stance.

Yes, he is. Harper is no flake. You call him a sociopath. Others call him cold-blooded, heartless. He's no flake.

We'll see if he calls and election himself and then even you'll have to admit he is a sociopath.

Moreover, Harper promised to cut the GST and then he did. The Liberals never do what they promise.

Harper promised not to end the income trusts. Harper lied.

-----

Anyway, don't worry about this littel drama. Outside of the political obsessives, no one knows anything about it and in a few days, it will all be history. September will present a new political cycle. Your guy Ignatieff is still the new sexxy guy in town.

And I'm sure you'll be saying that September is no time for an election.

[Topaz]

I don't see what the big deal about an election in July? I rather go in the summertime than freeze in the winter! Anyone that REALLY wants to vote will vote no matter when an election is called. I think there more of a reason to have an election than before and the money for all the projects can still get out the door by the GG. It does have to be a long campaign, 3 weeks and then vote. Most people now know who they would vote for anyway. I like to see what the turnout for a summer election would be compared to a fall and winter.

[jdobbin]

It would be wise if Liberals accepted that they are simply another political party. Liberals could use a decade or two out of power.

You really are bloviating now. I think some right wingers in Quebec offer suggestions that wholly self serving and make statements that are devoid of fact.

It would be wise if right wing Conservatives would accept that they are in a minority. It would be wise if they got off the pot on the natural governing party whimpering. It would be wise if they actually supported a conservative party rather than one that seems destined to blame others for its unprincipled and dumb spending. It would be wise if the right wing found a leader who didn't routinely act like a horse's ass.

Harper had better be responsive in the next days. His continued presence on PM depends on it.

All of the other parties have had a field day being obstinate and hoped the Liberals would get the blame for either supporting the government or ending the government. Well, Ignatieff has tossed it back to Harper.

The election completely lies in Harper's hands now.

[capricorn]

Harper had better be responsive in the next days. His continued presence on PM depends on it.

All of the other parties have had a field day being obstinate and hoped the Liberals would get the blame for either supporting the government or ending the government. Well, Ignatieff has tossed it back to Harper.

The election completely lies in Harper's hands now.

Have you noticed, as I have, that "The ball is in Harper's court" seems to be the current talking point on Liberal blogs.

Ignatieff does not want to be seen as provoking an election or running from an election. <An election if necessary, but not necessarily and election.>

Over the weekend, one Liberal admitted to me that Ignatieff was in imminent danger of going from being “lionized to Dionized.” Which is to say, the big guy’s been getting fewer and fewer glowing reviews about his strategic prowess, and he faces more and more questions about his skills as a strategist and, more fundamentally, about whether he has any guts. He cooked up this probation thing. He determined its schedule. Its central understanding was that if the government failed probation, the Liberals would withdraw confidence. So would Ignatieff force an election which “nobody wants” — an eternally meaningless phrase — and for which the Liberals remain “pathetically unready” — a more interesting state of affairs, and one I’ll get back to? Or would Ignatieff cave in?

Then he strolled into the National Press Theatre and talked a lot, and the gist of it was this: He wants details from Stephen Harper on EI, isotopes, the disposition of stimulus spending and, er, something else. He is willing to be flexible on each of these subjects. He’s willing to have the Commons sit longer to crunch these topics. But if the government doesn’t show at least as much flexibility, he’ll withdraw confidence.

It is a hard position to love, but it changes the frame of things a bit.

In Quebec political circles, we call this “faire porter l’odieux,” which can reasonably be translated as “shifting the blame,” but which I always think of as “carry the nasty.” It was all the rage in the Bouchard years, and it looks set to make a comeback if Pauline Marois manages to get herself elected premier. You, as premier of Quebec, propose something to the feds. If they grant it, they have demonstrated your strength. If they turn it down, they are mean and nasty people and, probably, help confirm your belief that this rotten country will never run. You have succeeded in making Ottawa carry the nasty.

Similarly, we are now (arguably; none of this is written in stone tablets) in a world where, if Harper consents to provide the information/ amendments/ whatever Ignatieff is (sort of) (vaguely) requesting/demanding, then it is Harper who is caving to avoid an election. Whereas, if we find ourselves traipsing off to the polls in six weeks (a week of High Drama followed by a five-week writ), then it is Harper who is being obstreperous. All ol’ Mike Ignatieff wants to do is Make Parliament Work For Canadians. It is Harper who, one way or the other, winds up carrying the nasty.

http://www2.macleans.ca/2009/06/15/carry-the-nasty/

Concessions made by Harper to avoid an election will be touted as evidence of Ignatieff's political genius but if Harper refuses to make concessions the Liberals will claim he provoked the election. Interesting fodder for political junkies and pundits. If the government is defeated, the problem for the Liberals is whether Canadians will blame the Liberals for an election they don't want and think will be harmful during a recession.

I don't think either party is in a particularly comfortable place right now. Maybe that's why both leaders appeared so calm in their public deliveries today.

[ToadBrother]

The election completely lies in Harper's hands now.

No, it's in the Tory Caucus's hands, and after last winter, they're not going to let Harper drive them off a cliff. They're grip on power is tenuous, and it would be foolhardy in the extreme to bring on an election now.

[jdobbin]

Have you noticed, as I have, that "The ball is in Harper's court" seems to be the current talking point on Liberal blogs.

So you think Harper has no role in a coming election?

Ignatieff does not want to be seen as provoking an election or running from an election. <An election if necessary, but not necessarily and election.>

Harper, Layton and Duceppe can't have it both ways: Calling the Liberals cowards for not calling an election. Calling the Liberals irresponsible for calling an election.

What he did this time was said Harper will determine an election.

Concessions made by Harper to avoid an election will be touted as evidence of Ignatieff's political genius but if Harper refuses to make concessions the Liberals will claim he provoked the election. Interesting fodder for political junkies and pundits. If the government is defeated, the problem for the Liberals is whether Canadians will blame the Liberals for an election they don't want and think will be harmful during a recession.

Did anyone blame Harper for calling an election no one wanted when he said he would not call one before term limits? No.

I don't think either party is in a particularly comfortable place right now. Maybe that's why both leaders appeared so calm in their public deliveries today.

I expect Tories will be screaming coward again if there is no election.