David Dodge criticism doesn't shake PM Harper's vision of econ

[jdobbin]

I agree canola was up 8 bucks today, apparently the US fed reserve stimulus is starting to kick in.

However, the USDA is predicting grain inventories will increase and the price is volatile and will face downward pressure.

Oil went past 50 bucks.

Which doesn't necessarily help North America according to the the Wall Street Journal after looking Barclay's Capital:

http://blogs.wsj.com/environmentalcapital/...-supply-driven/

In other words, rather than looking at the overall economy, or even just the demand side, the oil market is tallying up the actual balance between demand and supply. That is scary, Barclays suggests—and not just because of OPEC’s newfound discipline.

Like the International Energy Agency and OPEC, Barclays trimmed its already-pessimistic outlook for non-OPEC oil production to a decline of 560,000 barrels this year and a full 1 million barrel decline next year. That basically amounts to a booby trap waiting in the path of the expected economic recovery.

The rally may not mean what some people think.

[jdobbin]

I'm no expert but it looks like there's plenty of investment going on. This must be a result of Obama saying it's a good time to invest.

It is not wise to take credit or responsibility for daily ups and downs in the market.

It is better to focus on overall economic indicators. Some experts were already warning Biden not to take credit for a market rally because the news in the following week could just as easily be blamed on the administration.

[eyeball]

So much the environment I guess.

Confidence crisis? What confidence?

[Vancouver King]

So much the environment I guess.

Confidence crisis? What confidence?

Have faith, Harper has indicated he is willing to grab Obama's environmental coatails. If it takes the American president to create action here then so be it.

First, of course, the new president must clean up the financial carnage left by the previous administration's neo-cons. Canadian conservatives should wish him well at this task - if he fails there will be no turn around here and diminished prospects for a Tory govt re-election.

[Progressive Tory]

It is not wise to take credit or responsibility for daily ups and downs in the market.

It is better to focus on overall economic indicators. Some experts were already warning Biden not to take credit for a market rally because the news in the following week could just as easily be blamed on the administration.

Too early to call:

However, even shortly after the Wall Street Crash of 1929, optimism persisted; John D. Rockefeller said that "These are days when many are discouraged. In the 93 years of my life, depressions have come and gone....

Optimism might help to prevent panic but there is a fine line between being optimistic and burying your head in the sand. Unemployed Canadians want to know what the gov't is doing to create jobs. They don't want to be told, 'don't worry. This will all be over by 2013.' Nobody can predict that far and we need to take this day to day.

A couple of weeks of market stability doesn't mean we're already on our way toward economic stability. Let's not forget that Flaherty allowed AIG into out mortgage market, and the Cdn taxpayer will be out of pocket if those 40 year, no money down mortgages go in default.

[Progressive Tory]

Have faith, Harper has indicated he is willing to grab Obama's environmental coatails. If it takes the American president to create action here then so be it.

Yes but is he really joining Obama in anything? He recently attacked him at a Neo-con meeting. He publicly states that he's willing to work with the new U.S. President because he knows that's what Canadains want to hear. However, it's pretty clear that there is no love lost.

[eyeball]

It's doubtful that Obama has any more of a clue about things than anyone else.

Obama calls for new start with Iran

"For nearly three decades relations between our nations have been strained"

Story

Only three decades eh? I fear they've elected another moron myself.

[Moonbox]

Yes but is he really joining Obama in anything? He recently attacked him at a Neo-con meeting. He publicly states that he's willing to work with the new U.S. President because he knows that's what Canadains want to hear. However, it's pretty clear that there is no love lost.

You further discredit yourself with words like neo-con. It's a meaningless word that identifies you (probably realistically given your posting history) as a hard core Liberal ranter: short on facts but tall in scary rhetoric.

You can just as much call Harper a neo-con as I can call Ignatieff an American torture-monger.

Harper attacked Washington's spending. So what? We're attacking his spending and it's only HALF of what Obama is spending.

Edited March 20, 2009 by Moonbox

[blueblood]

However, the USDA is predicting grain inventories will increase and the price is volatile and will face downward pressure.

That depends on the US dollar and weather. China's demand for oilseeds still however remains high. A lower US dollar right now is good for exporters.

Which doesn't necessarily help North America according to the the Wall Street Journal after looking Barclay's Capital:

But it helps Canada as a whole. Higher oil prices is also an indicator of what the economy is doing. Start snapping up shares in oil companies for when oil takes off again.

The rally may not mean what some people think.

That might be the case, either the Elliot wave theory is wrong or hasn't happened yet. Canola does not want to go under 400 bucks a ton for too long. If the price floor for oil is 40$, and the price floor for canola is 400$, and wheat is $5.50 that is not too too bad.

[jdobbin]

That depends on the US dollar and weather. China's demand for oilseeds still however remains high. A lower US dollar right now is good for exporters.

I don't know that you can depend on the dollar to collapse. Americans retrenching money back to the U.S. are helping to prop it up. Likewise, exports are going to be dependent on world-wide recovery. Even China has seen slippage.

I can't comment on the weather. As you say, you might have a great year if someone else has a bad year. The nature of ag. Hopefully, it is not you who has grasshoppers, drought, fire or a too much rain.

But it helps Canada as a whole. Higher oil prices is also an indicator of what the economy is doing. Start snapping up shares in oil companies for when oil takes off again.

I think that some of the analysts are saying that the weak economy will keep oil prices in check. The price we are seeing is a result of OPEC. Big projects in Canada will slow until it can be certain that OPEC won't crank up supply just to make those projects back off.

That might be the case, either the Elliot wave theory is wrong or hasn't happened yet. Canola does not want to go under 400 bucks a ton for too long. If the price floor for oil is 40$, and the price floor for canola is 400$, and wheat is $5.50 that is not too too bad.

The floor price for oil was $32 and the Calgary Herald was predicting a range of $45 for the rest of the year. Associated Press was reporting today that grain prices will remain missed as demand is being affected by the economy as a whole.

In other words, people should not break out the champagne and farmers shouldn't be borrowing to buy a big tractor unless they are waiting for checks for goods already delivered.

Edited March 20, 2009 by jdobbin

[August1991]

Do you deny that he was first appointed by the Conservatives to a government position?

Dodge got a PhD in Economics from Princeton in 1972. Since, he has spent most of his life in Ottawa and a few unsuccessful years in the private sector.

The floor price for oil was $32 and the Calgary Herald was predicting a range of $45 for the rest of the year. Associated Press was reporting today that grain prices will remain missed as demand is being affected by the economy as a whole.

In other words, people should not break out the champagne and farmers shouldn't be borrowing to buy a big tractor unless they are waiting for checks for goods already delivered.

IMV, this past week, commodities such as gold and oil gained value because traders are confused and fear inflation. Canadian banks are not insolvent. The TSX rose.

Frankly though, this is a sucker's rally. David Dodge said so.

[jdobbin]

Dodge got a PhD in Economics from Princeton in 1972. Since, he has spent most of his life in Ottawa and a few unsuccessful years in the private sector.

In other words, a man with no credibility like all government workers, right?

IMV, this past week, commodities such as gold and oil gained value because traders are confused and fear inflation. Canadian banks are not insolvent. The TSX rose.

There has been inflation. How this will affect the economy is still being determined. Some think it means signs of life in the economy. It might. But inflation itself might take the wheels off off a fragile market.

Frankly though, this is a sucker's rally. David Dodge said so.

I think it shows there are some areas to look at for value.

There are still too many shaky companies out there being brought down by debt and mismanagement.

Edited March 21, 2009 by jdobbin

[August1991]

In other words, a man with no credibility like all government workers, right?

No, I just meant that Dodge is an ambitious early Boomer who enjoyed safe government largesse for all of his career.

There has been inflation. How this will affect the economy is still being determined. Some think it means signs of life in the economy. It might. But inflation itself might take the wheels off off a fragile market.

Dobbin, your analysis is about as sophisticated and informed as Hebert.

IOW, an anonymous poster on the Internet is the equivalent of a CBC/Toronto Star columnist.

In fact, I prefer you Dobbin for general political opinion because you're "honest". Coyne, Hebert are dishonest "professionals". And yet, they have no specialist knowledge. For this, the Internet offers better sites.

Edited March 21, 2009 by August1991

[jdobbin]

No, I just meant that Dodge is an ambitious early Boomer who enjoyed safe government largesse for all of his career.

By extension you can criticize all Boomers for being the recipients of government largess.

It still doesn't mean what he said was wrong.

Dobbin, your analysis is about as sophisticated and informed as Hebert.

And your insights on inflation come down from the hand of God?

Mine derives from what many public and private analysts are saying. I guess you could call it the dismal science and be done with it.

Still, to act like like your insights are pure, unadulterated, honest, accurate and informed sophistication, it is probably a conceit that only someone in an anonymous capacity could make.

IOW, an anonymous poster on the Internet is the equivalent of a CBC/Toronto Star columnist.

Everyone can have an opinion. Mine certainly isn't anonymous.

I suspect that those that do have an anonymous opinions do so because they don't really want to stand behind their convictions. Probably because those convictions might end up getting them a bop on the nose. Not that doesn't mean they were wrong about what they said. Just that it lacks a certain courage how they said it.

In fact, I prefer you Dobbin for general political opinion because you're "honest". Coyne, Hebert are dishonest "professionals". And yet, they have no specialist knowledge. For this, the Internet offers better sites.

And the Internet still uses the mainstream paid media to act as source material.

One thing is clear about Hebert and others writing this week. They point out to some weaknesses in performance by cabinet ministers left to their own devices.

Some of them will learn, adapt and do better. Others will likely have to get the PMO to approve all their public speeches.