Canadian Political Polls

[jdobbin]

has anyone seen that poll on the ctv website! It really does not include the regions of Atlantic Canada, BC, Manitoba which the Liberals would most likely be gaining. What do you expect from a poll conducted by CTV?

Here is a large sample poll for Manitoba.

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/local/pol...s-63232407.html

A new poll by Probe Research found the Conservatives hold a commanding 12 percentage point lead over the Liberals in the province: 47 to 25 per cent. However, Liberal support is considerably higher than the 19 per cent the party received in the October 2008 election, while support for the Conservatives is essentially the same.

In Winnipeg, Liberal support is up to 30 per cent -- compared to 23 per cent in the 2008 election -- while Conservative support is down from 43 to 39 per cent.

"If the Liberals can hold onto this kind of support until the next election, some of the seats the Conservatives took a year ago might be at risk," said Probe president Scott MacKay.

This poll came out on Friday.

The Liberals lost two seats in the province last election. They would hold their present seat most likely and possibly gain back either St. Boniface or Winnipeg South from the last election.

[Mr.Canada]

I always consider the sample size. I guess the question is if the NDP numbers are out of whack there, maybe some other numbers are off as well.

I don't think all the polls are wrong or can be wrong.

Every poll the Liberals are falling and are now lower then the Dion numbers. Can they fall further? I don't know.

Are the Tories at 41%? I don't know but it seems high to me, I'd guess 39% at most and 37.5 at lowest.

[jdobbin]

Dobbin, are we going to have a replay of the build up to the last election? It feels like it.

You mean when Harper calls a snap election?

Harper cannot call an election and he won't, he doesn't have to. Ignatieff started down this suicide mission of saying he will cause an election no matter what. Even though he was dropping in the polls like a stone he pushed it anyways.

Why did he call the last one then?

You need to accept responsibility for your leaders actions and not blame try to blame the Tories for your parties current situation.

You need to accept responsibility that your leader can't be trusted not to call an election.

I'm sure if he does call a snap vote, you will call him brilliant and handsome.

Lol, atta boy. Dobbin, the only reason I can think that you'd want an election right now is you want to dump the dead fish Ignatieff asap.

At the moment, I see a few polls giving mixed signals.

[jdobbin]

I don't think all the polls are wrong or can be wrong.

Every poll the Liberals are falling and are now lower then the Dion numbers. Can they fall further? I don't know.

Um, no. Manitoba and Quebec are higher than the last election.

Are the Tories at 41%? I don't know but it seems high to me, I'd guess 39% at most and 37.5 at lowest.

They could be very well at that mark. It depends on where the vote is concentrated. If it is Ontario, they can make gains.

I do know one thing: When an election starts, the issues that may have instigated a vote give way to how a campaign is run, the people involved and the issues discussed. Harper missed out on a massive majority last election when he misread Quebec and got tagged by the economy and how he would approach the next term.

[Mr.Canada]

You mean when Harper calls a snap election?

The last minority parliament had been the longest in Canadian History, ever. It had been over 2 years since we had an election at that point now 8 months like we have now.

You need to accept responsibility that your leader can't be trusted not to call an election.

PM Harper would call an election if the concensus across Canada was that we needed one. He hasn't heard that and in fact just the opposite is true. I'm sure if he felt he could get away with it he would given how the numbers look right now but so would any leader.

I'm sure if he does call a snap vote, you will call him brilliant and handsome.

I'd give his picture I have on my bedside table an extra kiss goodnight if he did.

At the moment, I see a few polls giving mixed signals.

What mixed signals are these? You don't know if Ignatieff dropped to 27 or 29% nationally today or not?

[Shakeyhands]

Um, no. Manitoba and Quebec are higher than the last election.

They could be very well at that mark. It depends on where the vote is concentrated. If it is Ontario, they can make gains.

I do know one thing: When an election starts, the issues that may have instigated a vote give way to how a campaign is run, the people involved and the issues discussed. Harper missed out on a massive majority last election when he misread Quebec and got tagged by the economy and how he would approach the next term.

Why are you bothering having this discussion? Purely curious.

[jdobbin]

Why are you bothering having this discussion? Purely curious.

I suppose it is ultimately useless. Probably in a week or so, the posts will stop and then start up a few weeks later. They probably coincide with a release from institutional care.

[madmax]

Here is a large sample poll for Manitoba.

This poll came out on Friday.

Here is the breakdown of the poll.

http://www.probe-research.com/090930%20Fed...20Standings.pdf

[Mr.Canada]

Here is the breakdown of the poll.

http://www.probe-research.com/090930%20Fed...20Standings.pdf

Thank you for posting this. It was a most interesting read.

[blueblood]

I suppose it is ultimately useless. Probably in a week or so, the posts will stop and then start up a few weeks later. They probably coincide with a release from institutional care.

[jdobbin]

Latest Ekos poll:

http://www2.macleans.ca/2009/10/08/ekos-we...8-7/#more-86300

Conservatives: 39.7 (+3.7)

Liberals: 25.7 (-4.0)

NDP: 15.2 (+1.3)

Green: 9.7 (-0.8)

Bloc Quebecois (in Quebec): 38.7 (-0.9)

I expect Harper might be willing to call a snap election any day now.

[Dave_ON]

Latest Ekos poll:

http://www2.macleans.ca/2009/10/08/ekos-we...8-7/#more-86300

I expect Harper might be willing to call a snap election any day now.

I'm shocked you'd accuse Mr. Harper of such a thing, that would require him to call an election to his advantage and that is distictly contrary to the very spirit of the 4 year fixed election law.

[Mr.Canada]

Latest Ekos poll:

http://www2.macleans.ca/2009/10/08/ekos-we...8-7/#more-86300

I expect Harper might be willing to call a snap election any day now.

He doesn't need to. The Liberals will constantly try to force an election as they've said they would no matter what the polls say. Ignatieff has said this many times. The Bloc will vote with the Liberals every time. Now we just need to get the NDP to vote with the Liberals and Bloc to bring down the Tories. I think Harper should try to put something into the next confidence vote that would be popular with voters but unpopular with everyone else.

As a side note I have no idea if the Tories have another opportunity to do this or not. At this point it's just speculation.

It's nice to see Harper having such a massive lead as predicted by myself. As I've said the more Ignatieff speaks the lower his numbers go. I want to see sub 20% numbers for the Liberals and a huge majority for Harper.

[jdobbin]

Now we just need to get the NDP to vote with the Liberals and Bloc to bring down the Tories. I think Harper should try to put something into the next confidence vote that would be popular with voters but unpopular with everyone else.

Unlikely, the NDP numbers are down as well.

Harper will probably find a reason to call it himself. Maybe he'll blame the Senate.

[Shady]

I expect Harper might be willing to call a snap election any day now.

You have poor political instincts. Harper will not call an election.

However, Iggy may force one.

[Mr.Canada]

Unlikely, the NDP numbers are down as well.

Harper will probably find a reason to call it himself. Maybe he'll blame the Senate.

Hehe the only way Harper could call it is if the opposition did something foolish like announce a coalition again or something. Last time they tried that Harper and the Tories numbers shot up to 50%. We can only hope for another coalition try, that would be heavenly.

[jdobbin]

You have poor political instincts. Harper will not call an election.

However, Iggy may force one.

I called it last time that Harper would call an election even though there was not one person in this forum who agreed.

[Shady]

I called it last time that Harper would call an election even though there was not one person in this forum who agreed.

This situation is different from last fall. Harper has already been on record as stating he's against an election at this time. However Iggy has been trying to force one for quite some time. He may yet succeed.

[jdobbin]

This situation is different from last fall. Harper has already been on record as stating he's against an election at this time. However Iggy has been trying to force one for quite some time. He may yet succeed.

Harper stated he would not call an election last time unless lost confidence. he can simply say the same thing now.

I doubt the NDP will vote the government down. Their polls numbers are falling as well.

[Shady]

Harper stated he would not call an election last time unless lost confidence. he can simply say the same thing now.

Well, this time he's stated he doesn't think there should be an election regardless.

[ToadBrother]

Well, this time he's stated he doesn't think there should be an election regardless.

Because he well knows that polls are damned dangerous things to stake your political fortunes on. What if he forced an election, and simply got another minority government? A fair chunk of his political capital within his own party would evaporate, and his position would become untenable. If he lost, well, then it's over right then and there.

I think the experiences of the last year have taught Harper a bit of caution. Better to let the polls build, see if it is in fact sustained and lasting growth and then go from there. I can't see an election before next spring, and I doubt even then. Layton has everything to lose by an election, and a helluva lot to gain by backing the Tories. The Bloc doesn't seem in a great hurry to go to the polls either, and, for its own electoral fortunes, is probably hoping that Iggy keeps throwing more logs on the bonfire of his own vanity, as the Bloc would likely be a healthy recipient of a Liberal meltdown in Quebec.

[madmax]

I'm shocked you'd accuse Mr. Harper of such a thing, that would require him to call an election to his advantage and that is distictly contrary to the very spirit of the 4 year fixed election law.

[madmax]

I doubt the NDP will vote the government down. Their polls numbers are falling as well.

All data suggests that the only party losing ground is the LPC. All commentary likes to suggest that the NDP polling is down. The NDP polling #s would have fallen like a rock, like the LPC had they turned their backs on the Unemployed for political gain. The very mistake Ignatieff made.

NDP numbers are stagnate, and yet, they are in contention in at least 1 of the 4 by elections. The LPC are not in contention according to the punters. The CPC have one in the bag and a 2 in contention. The BQ have 1 in the bag and one in contention.

The LPC are unlikely to win a single seat in the byelection.

If by chance the NDP win 2 of these seats, polling numbers will mean little, as a party that is dropping in polls has little meaning as long as the NDP win the seats. The CPC will gain some credibility if they come out with 3 of the 4 seats.

The BQ will maintain their solidarity if they win 2 of the seats. Of these parties, the NDP may end up empty handed.

If the LPC win a seat it will be a victory. If they fail to win a seat, the LPC risks becoming irrellevant in Quebec, BC, and Nova Scotia.

.

[madmax]

Unlikely, the NDP numbers are down as well.

BTW, this poll suggests the NDP went up a point and the LPC down 4 points.

[jdobbin]

BTW, this poll suggests the NDP went up a point and the LPC down 4 points.

I'm referring to the group of polls which has the NDP below their election results.