Canadian Political Polls

Smallc · June 11, 2009

I think the fact that the Conservatives would be starting so low giong into a campaign would not go well for them being that they're currently the governments, and governments usually trend down.

ToadBrother · June 11, 2009

I think the fact that the Conservatives would be starting so low giong into a campaign would not go well for them being that they're currently the governments, and governments usually trend down.

I think the numbers are still close for Iggy to bring down the government yet. A five point difference can disappear awfully fast. Thus far he has shown himself to be a cautious man. But the signs are there, the Liberals are heading up, the Tories are heading down, and Harper is probably going to have to start buckling to more Opposition demands if he hopes to survive. Let's remember here that this is it for Harper. If the government falls, and he loses the election, he's gone. He's fighting for his political survival, and we'll see just how far he'll bend to stay PM.

Jerry J. Fortin · June 11, 2009

I think the numbers are still close for Iggy to bring down the government yet. A five point difference can disappear awfully fast. Thus far he has shown himself to be a cautious man. But the signs are there, the Liberals are heading up, the Tories are heading down, and Harper is probably going to have to start buckling to more Opposition demands if he hopes to survive. Let's remember here that this is it for Harper. If the government falls, and he loses the election, he's gone. He's fighting for his political survival, and we'll see just how far he'll bend to stay PM.

He is toast, sooner rather than later.

Smallc · June 11, 2009

In a debate between Harper and Ignatieff, I can't see Harper coming out the victor.

Edited June 11, 2009 by Smallc

Jerry J. Fortin · June 11, 2009

In a debate between Harper and Ignatieff, I can't see Harper coming out the victor.

I agree, but don't expect that Stevie the Wonder politician will go quietly.

ToadBrother · June 11, 2009

He is toast, sooner rather than later.

I think you'll see Harper try his best for later. He was all bravado a couple of weeks ago over EI, but is his caucus seriously going to let him take them down? What's more interesting to me than Iggy's musings is just how much support Harper has in his own party.

Jerry J. Fortin · June 11, 2009

I think you'll see Harper try his best for later. He was all bravado a couple of weeks ago over EI, but is his caucus seriously going to let him take them down? What's more interesting to me than Iggy's musings is just how much support Harper has in his own party.

I think Iggy is a lot smarter than I thought. Harper is in real trouble.

bush_cheney2004 · June 11, 2009

I think Iggy is a lot smarter than I thought. Harper is in real trouble.

Well...yeah....he went to Harvard.

Vancouver King · June 11, 2009

I think you'll see Harper try his best for later. He was all bravado a couple of weeks ago over EI, but is his caucus seriously going to let him take them down? What's more interesting to me than Iggy's musings is just how much support Harper has in his own party.

There is only one glimmer of salvation on the horizon for Tories and that will be the uptick associated with an economic rebound. Even using Flaherty's exaggerated optimism the positive political effects of recovery are at least 6-9 months away.

Never mind the insignificant voter backlash by going early, engineer a parliamentary defeat that puts the country into an immediate campaign. Sooner than later equals Harper gone - and then a rejuvenated Liberal party can have it's way with the remaining mental midgets.

Edited June 11, 2009 by Vancouver King

Topaz · June 11, 2009

There is only one glimmer of salvation on the horizon for Tories and that will be the uptick associated with an economic rebound. Even using Flaherty's exaggerated optimism the positive political effects of recovery are at least 6-9 months away.
Never mind the insignificant voter backlash by going early, engineer a parliamentary defeat that puts the country into an immediate campaign. Sooner than later equals Harper gone - and then a rejuvenated Liberal party can have it's way with the remaining mental midgets.

When Harper is gone who do you think will be the new leader of the Tories? A person from the west or east?

Jerry J. Fortin · June 11, 2009

When Harper is gone who do you think will be the new leader of the Tories? A person from the west or east?

It might not matter. I think it is safe to say that the next government will be a Liberal one, yet I doubt that they will do any better than a minority. If the do achieve a majority it won't happen just yet. If Iggy waits until fall to pull the plug, I think there will be a cumulative effect of a detrimental nature facing Super Steve. I may be wrong but I think the media is going to start roasting Ministers on a political summer Bar-B-Q spit. Unless something really good happens over the next few months, I think Harper is done like dinner. When he goes, which will likely be right after he loses the next election, I think that the Conservatives will find financial support dry up rapidly. If Iggy can install himself with a majority, the only hope for the Tories is someone from the east, most likely Quebec.

Vancouver King · June 12, 2009

When Harper is gone who do you think will be the new leader of the Tories? A person from the west or east?

An Easterner not from caucus - why not a captain of industry?

Jerry J. Fortin · June 12, 2009

An Easterner not from caucus - why not a captain of industry?

Sure why not, let them pick who they want.

ToadBrother · June 12, 2009

When Harper is gone who do you think will be the new leader of the Tories? A person from the west or east?

From the East. I'm wagering on Mackay. I think he's smart enough not to pull a Mulroney, but he'll be considerably more attractive to centrist voters.

Jerry J. Fortin · June 12, 2009

From the East. I'm wagering on Mackay. I think he's smart enough not to pull a Mulroney, but he'll be considerably more attractive to centrist voters.

Good choice. I must agree with you.

ToadBrother · June 12, 2009

It might not matter. I think it is safe to say that the next government will be a Liberal one, yet I doubt that they will do any better than a minority. If the do achieve a majority it won't happen just yet. If Iggy waits until fall to pull the plug, I think there will be a cumulative effect of a detrimental nature facing Super Steve. I may be wrong but I think the media is going to start roasting Ministers on a political summer Bar-B-Q spit. Unless something really good happens over the next few months, I think Harper is done like dinner. When he goes, which will likely be right after he loses the next election, I think that the Conservatives will find financial support dry up rapidly. If Iggy can install himself with a majority, the only hope for the Tories is someone from the east, most likely Quebec.

It's hard to say when the best time is. No one can really predict what the next three or four months will be like. Historically, fall elections are best. People have had their rest, their more in tune, more receptive. Summer is a terrible time for an election, dismal turnouts will be all the worse, people are thinking about the beach, not about Parliament.

At the same time, waiting could also give Harper time to do something... anything. Harper is no idiot, and I think desperation will make him all the more dangerous, like, say give in to their EI demands. I simply don't see how Harper can continue stalling on EI, particularly with the risk it puts at least some areas of the old Reform heartland (like BC) to moving over to the Liberals. He has to know that the West is increasingly angry over what it sees is the East's special treatment, even as unemployment figures jump while eligibility figures still sit in the 30-40% range for many regions.

It really is a game of chicken at this point. The Tories will lose, I have no doubt, but if the Liberals only gain a minority where the Tories hold the keys, then it will make the current situation look like a wunderland of co-operation and inter-partisan love. The Liberals could win a majority, but I don't see too many pollsters or analysts holding their breath, and if the NDP vote stays static, or even falters, then we're basically in the same boat, except Iggy's in charge (sort of).

daniel · June 12, 2009

From the East. I'm wagering on Mackay. I think he's smart enough not to pull a Mulroney, but he'll be considerably more attractive to centrist voters.

Maybe he'll even merge the Conservatives with the Liberals.

ToadBrother · June 12, 2009

Maybe he'll even merge the Conservatives with the Liberals.

No, I doubt that, though from a somewhat a-political perspective, I think a proper national government during this crisis would have been the right thing to do. But the right thing and the politically expedient thing are rarely the same thing.

Jerry J. Fortin · June 12, 2009

No, I doubt that, though from a somewhat a-political perspective, I think a proper national government during this crisis would have been the right thing to do. But the right thing and the politically expedient thing are rarely the same thing.

I would venture to say that Iggy will pull the plug, he will announce that later today. I would go a step further and suggest that the smart thing to do is blow the dust off of the Coalition Concept and implement a multi-front attack on the Conservative Party of Canada. The way to blow them out of the water is to dodge the partisan bullet by not running against each other, just against Harper. To do this much will have to be worked out, based on the last election stats. Whoever got the most percentage of votes other than the Conservative candidate should be the candidate in the next election.

If Iggy wants to win, thats how he can get his majority and erase the Conservatives in all but western Canada. Even there you could reasonably expect to gain numerous seats. The vote splitting always has been a killer, and this would be a way around it.

Jerry J. Fortin · June 12, 2009

It seems that Iggy will not make the decision until Monday.........http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2009/06/12/...vote090612.html

capricorn · June 12, 2009

I would venture to say that Iggy will pull the plug, he will announce that later today.

We'll have to wait till Monday for word.

Canadians will have to wait until Monday to find out whether Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff will endorse the government’s economic report card or trigger a non-confidence vote.

http://www.torontosun.com/news/canada/2009...12/9777621.html

All parties keep saying Canadians don't want an election. This, and the fact that over the last six months, all the opposition has talked about is how incompetent this government has been. What do Canadians really think? According to an EKOS poll (sample of 10,000 surveyed) conducted in late May, a large number of Canadians has said the country is moving in the right direction.

See page 4 of the poll results to the question: "All things considered, would you say [the country/the Government of Canada] is moving in the right direction or the wrong direction?" 45% think the country is moving in the right direction.

http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/upl...port-june-1.pdf

If positive reports on the economy continue to come in, that number is sure to increase.

So the question for Canadians will become "What do the Liberals offer that would be an improvement over the Conservatives?" Canadians have already signaled they don't want an election over EI reform.

Ignatieff said his party's policy platform will be ready this month. If the Conservatives plan to hold ribbon cutting parties over the summer, perhaps Iggy should use that time to introduce himself to more Canadians and to differentiate his policies from Harper's.

I can't see Ignatieff causing an election this summer lest he raise the anger of Canadians. If he waits till the fall, an improved economy might work against. Either way it's a crap shoot.

daniel · June 12, 2009

No, I doubt that, though from a somewhat a-political perspective, I think a proper national government during this crisis would have been the right thing to do. But the right thing and the politically expedient thing are rarely the same thing.

Who would have thunk he would merge the PCs with the Reformers, especially after signing that contract (not to do it) to secure the leadeship.

Topaz · June 12, 2009

I've been thinking about this and I'm not sure if the Libs will go for an election and why would any party want to take over the mess the cons have, just to have them seat on the other side of the commons and tell Libs its YOUR problem now! Oct or spring one maybe but not now. The worse the Tories perform the higher the polls go up for the Libs.

Jerry J. Fortin · June 12, 2009

I've been thinking about this and I'm not sure if the Libs will go for an election and why would any party want to take over the mess the cons have, just to have them seat on the other side of the commons and tell Libs its YOUR problem now! Oct or spring one maybe but not now. The worse the Tories perform the higher the polls go up for the Libs.

The longer Harper remains in power the more damage he does. On the other hand Iggy isn't going to be to gentle on the checkbook either. Expect even more spending, but this time on social programs. We are going to get about as much debt out of him as we do out of Harper, si I figure you can double the deficit and debt over the next few years.

I just want Iggy because it will really upset western Canada and Albertans in particular! Not really, hah hah, but it sounds good!

daniel · June 12, 2009

Take a look down south (and in the US forums at this website). Obama inherited the mess but the Republicans are taking every opportunity to blame him for everything.