Canadian Political Polls

[capricorn]

The next election is a toss up. Won't matter much what the outcome is. Since Ignatieff came on board, Conservatives and Liberals have become almost twins.

[Vancouver King]

The next election is a toss up. Won't matter much what the outcome is. Since Ignatieff came on board, Conservatives and Liberals have become almost twins.

With one huge difference: Liberals are not led by a rabid partisan with apparent multiple personalities, randomly lurching from civility to junk yard dog. In contrast Ignatieff is a study in calm consistency.

Any election campaign in the near/mid term must allow for fallout from every new factory closure and continuing grim financial news. For Conservatives the economy represents an extra opponent and the govts current talking point of alleged opposition stalling of the stimulative budget, seems designed to counter the downturns inevitable political effect by sharing the blame.

Expect Ignatieff to pull the plug after June's interim update.

Edited March 11, 2009 by Vancouver King

[Oleg Bach]

All polls are rule by panderment - and are used by career politicals who's primary goal is re-election not public service or wise rule. George Bernard Shaw once said "The majority is AWLAYS wrong" - real leaders do what has to be done to improve the lot of the nation even if it cost them the next election.

The reason why Harper is being held back by the lonely and ambitious conservartive left - commonly called Liberals is because the leftist conservative "Liberals" know that when Harper hands out the bailout money it will go to comfort the conservatives of higher rank - and the liberals know they are not in that loop - and will not benfit - the status quo must be maintained at all cost - untll they die out ...and that will take a little while longer and the while the left waits to become the more lucrative right - they just have to wait their turn - In the meantime - let Harper hand out the money to those that built the nation..to those that earned it. After all it is their money - with out are right wing elite we would be in the same postion as America or worse - Iceland..

[Canadian Blue]

The next election is a toss up. Won't matter much what the outcome is. Since Ignatieff came on board, Conservatives and Liberals have become almost twins.

I feel the exact same way. They sound awfully similar on foriegn affairs, the economy, the oilsands, etc.

With one huge difference: Liberals are not led by a rabid partisan with apparent multiple personalities, randomly lurching from civility to junk yard dog. In contrast Ignatieff is a study in calm consistency.

Sounds like Stephen Harper before 2006. Needless to say politics has a way of corrupting otherwise decent and principled individuals. I'm sure Jean Chretien would have been an upstanding lawyer if it wasn't for his foray into the political scene.

[Vancouver King]

Latest Harris/Decima poll showing dead heat between the main rivals. Their analysis shows significant movement of women away from the Conservatives. Quebec remains a Tory wasteland - they poll only half their actual 2008 election result.

Liberal - 33%

Conservative - 32%

NDP - 14%

Green - 10%

Bloc - 9%

http://www.harrisdecima.com/en/downloads/p...ses/031309E.pdf

[normanchateau]

Since Ignatieff came on board, Conservatives and Liberals have become almost twins.

Unlike his "twin", Ignatieff has not revealed homophobic, socially conservative tendencies. Only a socially conservative twit like Harper would find it necessary, in the midst of a catastrophic world recession and growing Canadian unemployment, to introduce legislation imposing a mandatory six month sentence, up to a maximum of 14 years in jail, for selling one marijuana plant. This same socially conservative twit found it necessary during his first term in office to "revisit" legislation allowing lesbians to marry.

Harper's recent attempts to portray himself as a social moderate and environmentalist who has abandoned fiscal conservatism seem like a futile attempt to mimic Brian Mulroney.

Canadians tend to be social moderates. Why would they vote for a hypocritical, social conservative who pretends to be what he is not in order to retain power? The latest Harris Decima poll suggests that even some Harper supporters have had enough of him.

[capricorn]

Unlike his "twin", Ignatieff has not revealed homophobic, socially conservative tendencies. Only a socially conservative twit like Harper would find it necessary, in the midst of a catastrophic world recession and growing Canadian unemployment, to introduce legislation imposing a mandatory six month sentence, up to a maximum of 14 years in jail, for selling one marijuana plant.

You unknowingly pointed out another similarity between the Liberals and the Conservatives. The Liberals endorse the Conservatives' crime bill. As a matter of fact, the Liberals said the bill's provisions don't go far enough.

The Harper government's new bill to toughen punishment for gang-related crimes should have no trouble sailing through the minority Parliament after the opposition parties said Thursday they will support the proposals, and even called on the government to do more to fight organized crime.

The NDP and the Liberals charged that the Conservatives are not going far enough by promising to elevate all gang-killings to first-degree murder, to create a criminal offence for drive-by shootings, and to introduce new penalties for attacks on police.

http://www2.canada.com/news/tory+anti+gang...html?id=1331876

This same socially conservative twit found it necessary during his first term in office to "revisit" legislation allowing lesbians to marry.

Harper promised a free vote in Parliament on same sex marriage. Promise made, promise kept. As far as Harper is concerned, the matter is closed.

Harper's recent attempts to portray himself as a social moderate and environmentalist who has abandoned fiscal conservatism seem like a futile attempt to mimic Brian Mulroney.

Harper is positioning the Conservatives to the centre, just like Ignatieff.

“Yes, I’m moving the party into the centre because I think we win from the centre. We win when people think we’re a moderate, pragmatic, sensible party that connects to what Canadians are worried about,” Mr. Ignatieff said.

http://www.theepochtimes.com/n2/content/view/13408/

Canadians tend to be social moderates. Why would they vote for a hypocritical, social conservative who pretends to be what he is not in order to retain power?

Ask the voters.

The latest Harris Decima poll suggests that even some Harper supporters have had enough of him.

The polls could also be showing that voters don't see much of a difference between the two main parties.

Liberals and Conservatives, rapidly becoming two peas in a pod.

Edited March 15, 2009 by capricorn

[jdobbin]

Harper is positioning the Conservatives to the centre, just like Ignatieff.

And failing. His support with women and Quebec has dropped precipitously.

The polls could also be showing that voters don't see much of a difference between the two main parties.

Liberals and Conservatives, rapidly becoming two peas in a pod.

I guess you might like to think so but Harper has burned bridges in Quebec and women are moving towards supporting the Liberals. This will surely affect Tory fortunes in the city and in Quebec.

The Liberals remains way down in Alberta where they presently have no seats.

[normanchateau]

Harper promised a free vote in Parliament on same sex marriage. Promise made, promise kept.

Yes, that must be exactly why "centrist" Harper did it. Because he keeps promises.

Here's some that he didn't keep:

http://mikewatkins.ca/tags/broken-promises/

http://harperslies.blogspot.com/

http://www.promisebreakers.ca/

[Smallc]

Harper is positioning the Conservatives to the centre, just like Ignatieff.

I' sure that the people who know of his recent speech will have a hard time believing that.

[normanchateau]

Harper is positioning the Conservatives to the centre, just like Ignatieff.

Ignatieff is a centrist. Positioning to the centre is consistent with his beliefs.

For Harper, a former Reform/Alliance/Northern Foundation/National Citizens Coalition member and current Missionary and Alliance member, to move to the centre stretches credulity. Do you seriously think conservatives would vote for Harper if they sincerely believed that he was a centrist like Ignatieff?

[capricorn]

Ignatieff is a centrist.

Ignatieff is an opportunist. When he signed the coalition deal with the leftist Bloc and NDP, he did so with the sole purpose of getting the Liberals into power. He realized by looking at opinion polls that Canadians don't want leftists at the Cabinet table and he dropped the coalition like a hot potato.

Positioning to the centre is consistent with his beliefs.

Ignatieff's beliefs remind me of a weather vane, flipping around whenever the wind changes. He's so "nuanced" in his pronouncements, it's hard to tell what his beliefs are. Must be his academic side coming through.

For Harper, a former Reform/Alliance/Northern Foundation/National Citizens Coalition member and current Missionary and Alliance member, to move to the centre stretches credulity. Do you seriously think conservatives would vote for Harper if they sincerely believed that he was a centrist like Ignatieff?

The majority of Canadians do not peg themselves as being Liberals or Conservatives. They just prefer a government that governs from the centre. It's a well known fact that the Conservative base is solid as evidenced by the relatively consistent showing of the party in the polls.

[jdobbin]

The majority of Canadians do not peg themselves as being Liberals or Conservatives. They just prefer a government that governs from the centre. It's a well known fact that the Conservative base is solid as evidenced by the relatively consistent showing of the party in the polls.

Which is minority.

[MontyBurns]

Unlike his "twin", Ignatieff has not revealed homophobic, socially conservative tendencies. Only a socially conservative twit like Harper would find it necessary, in the midst of a catastrophic world recession and growing Canadian unemployment, to introduce legislation imposing a mandatory six month sentence, up to a maximum of 14 years in jail, for selling one marijuana plant. This same socially conservative twit found it necessary during his first term in office to "revisit" legislation allowing lesbians to marry.

I guess Harper should be more socially elitist like yourself.

[madmax]

Unlike his "twin", Ignatieff has not revealed homophobic, socially conservative tendencies. Only a socially conservative twit like Harper would find it necessary, in the midst of a catastrophic world recession and growing Canadian unemployment, to introduce legislation imposing a mandatory six month sentence, up to a maximum of 14 years in jail, for selling one marijuana plant.

Is this legislation supported by Ignatieff?

[normanchateau]

It's a well known fact that the Conservative base is solid as evidenced by the relatively consistent showing of the party in the polls.

The right of centre vote has indeed been relatively consistent:

2008 election

Conservative votes =5,205,334 % of votes=37.6%

2006 election

Conservative votes =5,374,071 % of votes=36.3%

2004 election

Conservative votes =3,994,682 % of votes=29.6%

2000 election

Alliance and PCs combined =4,843,927 % of votes=37.7%

1997 election

Reform and PCs combined =4,959,785 % of votes=38.2%

For CPC to win a majority in the next election, they will need a leader who is a social moderate, not someone who pretends to be in order to hang on to power. They do not need a religious fundamentalist who is apparently homophobic, anti-stem cell research, anti-abortion, former Reform/Alliance/Northern Foundation member and former President of the National Citizens' Coalition.

[MontyBurns]

They do not need a religious fundamentalist who is apparently homophobic, ...

You say this like it's a bad thing.

[normanchateau]

You say this like it's a bad thing.

Bad and perhaps fatal for those who'd like to see a Conservative majority government.

[Vancouver King]

If only Conservatives could overturn the political laws of gravity. Who decreed the govt of the day should be the party to wear the blame for rough times? What unfairness.

How dare proud Quebecers resent our using their duly elected MP's as whipping boys in an exercise to save our political butts. Ungrateful ingrates. Speaking of butts, It will be a travesty to see ours used to warm the opposition benches in an early Fall election instead of fulfilling our manifest destiny - stomping the homos, abortionists and the tokers.

It's all so unfair...

[Alta4ever]

If only Conservatives could overturn the political laws of gravity. Who decreed the govt of the day should be the party to wear the blame for rough times? What unfairness.

How dare proud Quebecers resent our using their duly elected MP's as whipping boys in an exercise to save our political butts. Ungrateful ingrates. Speaking of butts, It will be a travesty to see ours used to warm the opposition benches in an early Fall election instead of fulfilling our manifest destiny - stomping the homos, abortionists and the tokers.

It's all so unfair...

Theya re electing seperatisits........ why do you not want to advertise that?

[Vancouver King]

Theya re electing seperatisits........ why do you not want to advertise that?

Our nation within a nation has been electing pro-Quebec only MPs for generations. Did it ever occur to Harper this nationalist fibre is an institution there, one to be denegraded at considerable political risk?

Clinging to power by any means, Harper savaged the Quebecers and saved his floundering minority but at great cost: The loss of Quebec and soon his toehold of seats there. And for what eventual prospect? - to die a slow political death at the hands of an unforgiving recession.

[normanchateau]

March 21 Nanos Research Poll

Federal party preferences of committed voters (Canada)

Liberal 36%

Conservative 33%

NDP 13%

Bloc 10%

Green 8%

Federal party preferences of committed voters (Ontario)

Liberal 44%

Conservative 31%

NDP 14%

Green 10%

Federal party preferences of committed voters (Quebec)

Liberal 32%

Conservative 19%

NDP 7%

Bloc 36%

Green

In Western Canada from February to March, Conservatives and NDP each decline by 3%, Greens up by 2% and Liberals up by 4%

http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls...T-W09-T362E.pdf

[Vancouver King]

Nik Nanos details this interesting observation from the same March 21st poll - seems I wasn't alone switching loyalties a couple of months back:

"Looking at the trend since the election, the key takeaway is the steady decline in support for the NDP with those former NDP voters moving to the Liberals. A key strategic trend for the past few years has been the shift between the division and unification of non-Conservative voters. In 2004, NDP supporters shifting to the Liberals resulted in the Liberal minority government. In 2006 and 2008, a split opposition allowed the Harper Conservatives to win. Polling since the 2008 election indicates there that is an inverse trend between Liberals and the New Democrat support."

[lictor616]

http://www.vancouversun.com/news/story.html?id=1135891

The Liberal recovery post-Dion has been substantial and we have not even see a day in the House with Ignatieff at the helm.

Let's see if Harper tries to insert some poison into the budget as some still think we will try. I believe he wants an election before a large deficit is produced on his watch.

The majority of canadians don't really know what policy issues the major candidates support anyways...

I remember reading that something like 2% of canadians know who the speaker of the house is... And that 37% couldn't point out that we even HAD a house of commons...

I also remember reading that McCleans was said to have ascertained by investigation that no more that 31% of adult Canadians were mentally capable of reading a book--any book. Their feeble intellects, palsied and spasmodic, could not remain in focus on texts exceeding a few paragraphs.

Granted Canadians are doubtless more sagacious then American voters, a majority of whom actaully believe that the earth is 6 to 12 000 years old and was created by some spook daddy in the sky are impudent enough to reject Darwin.

Anyhoo, it is a fact that most Canadians (probably 70%) certainly are lacking in the mental faculties necessary to maintain a democracy... Although no one noticed that the fact made idiocy of our ochlocracy, and proved that a society that permits more than the 30% to vote is simply committing suicide.

Edited March 21, 2009 by lictor616

[jdobbin]

The majority of canadians don't really know what policy issues the major candidates support anyways...

That could be true. What do you recommend though to change that?

Edited March 21, 2009 by jdobbin