Pellaken Posted March 13, 2004 Report Posted March 13, 2004 in 1988, pretty much anything in BC touching the coast voted NDP Quote
Stoker Posted March 13, 2004 Report Posted March 13, 2004 *Sticks Hand up* So, why the BC support for the Liberals?Also, is the Vancouver Island NDP? (Just curious.) No, the majority of the Island is Conservative, except David Anderson (Liberal) and my MP Keith Martin (Independent) Then there are about seven ridings in Greater Vancouver that are Liberal and NDP, the rest of the Province is Conservative, and I'd be very surprised if any Conservative seats are lost in the next election. I'd also be surprised if the Conservative party doesn't take back my riding and give Keith the boot. August1991, Well you have an interesting mix of loggers and huggers on the Island. So you can figure it from there right? I was only to the Island twice too, but the locals couldn't help but show their disdain for the huggers interfering with the tree economy. I think that you should also factor in the six thousands plus members of the armed forces in both Comox and Esquimalt, and their spouses which also play a large part in the political climate....... Quote The beaver, which has come to represent Canada as the eagle does the United States and the lion Britain, is a flat-tailed, slow-witted, toothy rodent known to bite off it's own testicles or to stand under its own falling trees. -June Callwood-
August1991 Posted March 13, 2004 Author Report Posted March 13, 2004 BC, Canada's flaky California. Huggers, loggers. I peddled from Nanaimo to Victoria once. How many seats on the Island? And I still haven't got a good explanation why anyone in BC would vote for Paul Martin. I'll happily explain why people in Quebec will do it. Newfoundland? No problem. But BC types? Don't get it. Stoker suggested CFBs. Is that it? (But Comox is how many votes?) Then there are about seven ridings in Greater Vancouver that are Liberal and NDP, the rest of the Province is Conservative, and I'd be very surprised if any Conservative seats are lost in the next election. I don't know BC at all. But that's how I saw it when I was there. Mountain guys, pick-ups, chicks in cars. I'd say Tory with about 10 NDP/Lib. Quote
maplesyrup Posted March 13, 2004 Report Posted March 13, 2004 Just like in Quebec, where the unpopularity of the Charest government is contributing to the Bloc strength, the unpopularity of the Campbell governemnt in BC is contributing to the unpopularity of the right in BC. That is one of the reasons the NDP has rebounded in the polls. BC provincially is quite polarized with about 40% left, and 40% right, and then a 20% swing vote. The RCMP raids on the BC Legislature will become a big issue one it is brought out into the open, and could be very damaging for both provincial and federal liberals. Quote An education isn't how much you have committed to memory, or even how much you know. It's being able to differentiate between what you do know and what you don't. Anatole France
Pellaken Posted March 13, 2004 Report Posted March 13, 2004 *Sticks Hand up* So, why the BC support for the Liberals? Also, is the Vancouver Island NDP? (Just curious.) No, the majority of the Island is Conservative, except David Anderson (Liberal) and my MP Keith Martin (Independent) Then there are about seven ridings in Greater Vancouver that are Liberal and NDP, the rest of the Province is Conservative, and I'd be very surprised if any Conservative seats are lost in the next election. I'd also be surprised if the Conservative party doesn't take back my riding and give Keith the boot. August1991, Well you have an interesting mix of loggers and huggers on the Island. So you can figure it from there right? I was only to the Island twice too, but the locals couldn't help but show their disdain for the huggers interfering with the tree economy. I think that you should also factor in the six thousands plus members of the armed forces in both Comox and Esquimalt, and their spouses which also play a large part in the political climate....... *sticks hand up* there are a total of 4 NDP representives in BC, so it's not surprising that there are few representives from there right now. Polls, however, do show the NDP is strongly supported on the island. Quote
BigGunner Posted March 13, 2004 Report Posted March 13, 2004 Federally speaking, the NDP is well ahead on Vancouver Island - which is not a traditional core support area for the Conservative party. The Reform and Alliance party nearly swept it from 93-2000 because they were the standard-bearers of the populist, anti-establisment flag. That is gone now and Jack Layton has that in his court. The last time the PC's swept the Island was in 1984 in the Mulroney landslide. In 1988, the NDP took every seat on the Island. The NDP is also ahead in its incumbent seats, plus is ahead in parts of Vancouver and the eastern suburbs. The NDP is poised to re-take Kamloops, and select other interior seats. Quote
Stoker Posted March 13, 2004 Report Posted March 13, 2004 BC, Canada's flaky California. Huggers, loggers.I peddled from Nanaimo to Victoria once. How many seats on the Island? Six IIRC. And I still haven't got a good explanation why anyone in BC would vote for Paul Martin. I'll happily explain why people in Quebec will do it. Newfoundland? No problem.But BC types? Don't get it. Stoker suggested CFBs. Is that it? (But Comox is how many votes?) I too don't know why anybody would vote for Paul Martin. IMHO, I guess that the people that live in Greater Vancouver share the same mindset as those those that live in Ontario and provide the Liberal party with alot of it's support. As for the "armed forces vote", it does play a large part in my riding (Esquimalt—Juan de Fuca) and Comox's (Vancouver Island North). If you take into acount the people in the forces, their spouses, civilan workers, their spouses and the people in the surrounding communities that are directly affected by the people in the Armed Forces, you would see just how much affect they do play on Vancouver Island. *sticks hand up*there are a total of 4 NDP representives in BC, so it's not surprising that there are few representives from there right now. Polls, however, do show the NDP is strongly supported on the island. I think your mistaken, I only know of two, Svend Robinson and Libby Davies. As for the polls showing growing support on the Island, that might infact be true for the provincial NDP, but seeing is beliving wrt the fedral party. Federally speaking, the NDP is well ahead on Vancouver Island - which is not a traditional core support area for the Conservative party. The Reform and Alliance party nearly swept it from 93-2000 because they were the standard-bearers of the populist, anti-establisment flag. That is gone now and Jack Layton has that in his court.The last time the PC's swept the Island was in 1984 in the Mulroney landslide. In 1988, the NDP took every seat on the Island. The NDP is also ahead in its incumbent seats, plus is ahead in parts of Vancouver and the eastern suburbs. The NDP is poised to re-take Kamloops, and select other interior seats. I don't doubt that the NDP could take seats from the Liberals in Vancover, but I can't think of what seats you think they are going to gain on Island. Perhaps David Anderson's riding? Who elses? Quote The beaver, which has come to represent Canada as the eagle does the United States and the lion Britain, is a flat-tailed, slow-witted, toothy rodent known to bite off it's own testicles or to stand under its own falling trees. -June Callwood-
maplesyrup Posted March 13, 2004 Report Posted March 13, 2004 I was listening to Ed Broadbent being interviewed on the radio this morning. He stated that the NDP are at 17-18% right now, and expects them to come out of the election with 21-22%, and with more seats than the NDP has ever held in the past. He also stated that logging communities and mining communities are traditional NDP areas, and he expects the NDP to do well in these rural communities. Quote An education isn't how much you have committed to memory, or even how much you know. It's being able to differentiate between what you do know and what you don't. Anatole France
Stoker Posted March 13, 2004 Report Posted March 13, 2004 I guess we will know by the end of the summer depending when martin calls an election. Quote The beaver, which has come to represent Canada as the eagle does the United States and the lion Britain, is a flat-tailed, slow-witted, toothy rodent known to bite off it's own testicles or to stand under its own falling trees. -June Callwood-
maplesyrup Posted March 13, 2004 Report Posted March 13, 2004 I guess we will know by the end of the summer depending when martin calls an election. It's hard to believe in some ways that Martin would call an election soon, with all the difficulties the Liberals seem to be having these days. Maybe the polls will tell him he should wait for a year or a year and a half before facing the electorate. Quote An education isn't how much you have committed to memory, or even how much you know. It's being able to differentiate between what you do know and what you don't. Anatole France
BigGunner Posted March 14, 2004 Report Posted March 14, 2004 Your prediction for the NDP is mathematically improbable If the NDP wins 14 seats in BC, it will be the biggest voter migration in Canadian history. The largest voter migration in Canadian history was when the PC government went from 160+ seats to 2. Quote
maplesyrup Posted March 14, 2004 Report Posted March 14, 2004 Your prediction for the NDP is mathematically improbable If the NDP wins 14 seats in BC, it will be the biggest voter migration in Canadian history. The largest voter migration in Canadian history was when the PC government went from 160+ seats to 2. What year was that when the Tories went from 160+ seats to 2 seats? Was that when Kim Campbell took over from Mulroney, and Chretien became prime minister? Quote An education isn't how much you have committed to memory, or even how much you know. It's being able to differentiate between what you do know and what you don't. Anatole France
August1991 Posted March 14, 2004 Author Report Posted March 14, 2004 (edited) Correct, 1984. NOT. It was 1993. (Oops.) The migration occurred much earlier. Basically, the PCs split into two parties: French and English. The reason was the failure of Meech Lake and passim. That, and the complete incompetence of Kim Campbell's campaign. Edited March 14, 2004 by August1991 Quote
PC4EVER Posted March 14, 2004 Report Posted March 14, 2004 Whaterver your prediction are, put a big 0 for PC in Quebce for the last election. Pellaken, 8 PC in Quebec is just fabulation. Maybe, we could get 2 or 3 with Stronach as leader, but for sure a big 0 with Harper. Quote
Pellaken Posted March 14, 2004 Report Posted March 14, 2004 Basically, the PCs split into two parties: French and English. nope the PC Party split into 4 peices -Quebec Nationalists (had been added to the party in 1984 by Mulroney) -Western Populists (had been added to the party in 1958 by Diefenbaker) -"Ontario" Businessmen (had been added to the party way back with people like Meighen and Borden -"Traditional" Conservatives (always been in the party) The Traditional Conservatives are made up, mostly, of the people who vote PC for the sake of voting PC. Popular in eastern canada. They "became" the PC Party post CA. Quebec Nationalists became the Bloc. Western populists became the Reform Party and the Ontario businessmen voted Liberal imagine that, 3 entire parties, and a key part of a 4th all came from the same coalition. If someone could re-build it, it may work. The problem is getting Westerners and Quebecois to agree on anything. Quote
Galahad Posted March 14, 2004 Report Posted March 14, 2004 And I still haven't got a good explanation why anyone in BC would vote for Paul Martin. Because BCers like Paul Martin's style of wanting to go gentle into that good right. Because, unlike the last time around, Gordon Campbell's Liberals will lend a hand to their federal counterparts . Because the BC's Liberals, regardless of polls, still enjoy an overwhelming support. Quote
Galahad Posted March 19, 2004 Report Posted March 19, 2004 I also predict a Liberal majority. A slim majority. But not too slim. Galahad, can we see your numbers? Where are they going to get the seats to form a majority? Why don't you ask Don Martin? In todays NP he decided to jump on my bandwagon by predicting a "narrowed Liberal majority" as the most probable outcome. Why don't you go pester him for the damn numbers? There Don also said: "Harper believes, correctly, that the electorate never snaps to impression-forming attention until the writ drops. Only then will his strengths be noted." Well Don isn't ALWAYS right. Quote
August1991 Posted March 19, 2004 Author Report Posted March 19, 2004 Galahad: In todays NP he decided to jump on my bandwagon by predicting a "narrowed Liberal majority" as the most probable outcome. What is "narrowed"? What is "liberal"? What is "majority"? Add it up. There Don also said:"Harper believes, correctly, that the electorate never snaps to impression-forming attention until the writ drops. Only then will his strengths be noted." IMV, Quebecers have decided. Martin will jump around, get frenetic, raise his voice, but Quebecers have decided. (BTW, Jean Lapierre is smart, and safe. He'll get in in Outremont. Martin too in LaSalle.) The West - more or less decided. The Maritimes - same. So, the toss up is Ontario. And Harper is right. Voters in Ontario prefer Liberals, are suspicious about Harper but will not examine the question until they have to. When they look at the question, what'll happen? Galahad, you big picture guy, got any numbers on the back of the envelope? Wanna share them with us ? (These numbers have to add up to 106.) Quote
Galahad Posted March 19, 2004 Report Posted March 19, 2004 What is "narrowed"? Less wide. What is "liberal"? The party Paul Martin is running right now. What is "majority"? More than half. Galahad, you big picture guy, got any numbers on the back of the envelope? Wanna share them with us ? (These numbers have to add up to 106.) Like I said, go pester Don Martin. Quote
August1991 Posted March 19, 2004 Author Report Posted March 19, 2004 More than half. You sure? go pester Don Martin. Don Martin? Got me there totally. Sorry, who is Don Martin? The rest of your post? Fell off my chair laughing! Quote
Galahad Posted April 2, 2004 Report Posted April 2, 2004 no spring election. Agreed! I predict June 22. I aimed my prediction for the first Monday of summer but miscalculated. I meant June 21, honest. Yesterday, Don Martin put out his official odds on when the election will occur, saying: While only a serious April fool would bet heavily on any date yet - Martin probably hasn't picked one himself - here are the various voting day scenarios with my estimated odds of becoming a reality.May 10 (Odds against; 30-1) May 17 (40-1) May 25 (10-1) May 31 (3-2) June 07 (50-1) June 14 (16-1) June 21 (16-1) After that, it's an August 22 call for a September 27 vote. Subject to change without notice, of course. At the generous odds of 16-1, I immediately ran to my corner bookie and bet heavily on June 21. How about you? Quote
maplesyrup Posted April 2, 2004 Report Posted April 2, 2004 Minority Liberal government- they need some punisment. Writ to be dropped May 6th for a June 14th election. Actually it all depends on the polls. Quote An education isn't how much you have committed to memory, or even how much you know. It's being able to differentiate between what you do know and what you don't. Anatole France
August1991 Posted April 3, 2004 Author Report Posted April 3, 2004 I think Martin's lost it. (His mind, not his belief in victory.) He'll delay and then go for 21 June, the latest Spring date. (The 68 election was 25 June.) Two factors: 1) Polls and 2) Guite's testimony. I think Liberal insiders can convince themselves (as you did MapleSyrup) that the polls are in fact good. Tories way down, Liberals almost at 2000 polls and results. Do you think this Public Accounts Committee matters? Quote
August1991 Posted April 3, 2004 Author Report Posted April 3, 2004 I think Martin's lost it. I meant Paul, not Don. Who the hell is Don Martin? Didn't he draw cartoons for Mad magazine? Quote
maplesyrup Posted April 4, 2004 Report Posted April 4, 2004 Do you think this Public Accounts Committee matters? I think it could backfire on opposition parties. Overspending done to save Canada, yadha, yadha..... Guité: ‘When you're at war you drop . . . the rules' Canadians want a positive campaign. Dont think they are going to get it. Quote An education isn't how much you have committed to memory, or even how much you know. It's being able to differentiate between what you do know and what you don't. Anatole France
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