2004 Election Predictions

[August1991]

Forget the Lord. He probably doesn't even exist.

THE Lord? I was thinking Bernard Lord. Well, you know, it's late, and well officer I was talking to some friends and...

Presto, Ralphie and Mike the Knife. Hey, throw in the Rt. Hon. Brian Mulroney. You gotta point. I dunno.

This Harper guy, "I canna figure", (as my Scot grandmother would say).

I think about 40 or so Ontario seats are on offer because they are willing to buy a "pig in a poke". In the debate in Montreal, there was a question about gay marriage. Harper said he'd allow a free vote.

I regret I didn't stand up and ask, "But how would you yourself vote, Mr. Harper?"

Voters in Ontario simply want to know if this guy is honest, or a right-wing whacko.

In estimating Ontario seats, and deciding the election, that's the question in my view. The rest is more or less decided. The moving pen, having writ, moves on.

[westcoast99]

My prediction -- taken from voting trends, polls, candidates, and just plain mathematics:

British Columbia

Liberal: 8 (30%)

Conservative: 24 (40%)

NDP: 2 (25%)

This is really quite wishful thinking.

For example:

The Conservatives in BC are last, not first, of the three main parties, according to the last poll:

CPC 27% last

Lib 33% first

NDP 29% second

It's not really wishful thinking at all. We got 50% in BC last time.

Pre-election polls mean nothing! Also, BC is in a three way race now. Once the election comes, the Liberals will go down, and CPC will go up.

Do you really think that we're going to lose seats where we got over 70% of the vote last time?

The NDP may be at 30% in BC. 30% in every riding doesn't translate to a single seat, whereas the CPC is at 30% in BC, but at 50% + in the seats we won, and 10-20% in the seats we lose.

Understand? We're still going to sweep BC.

[maplesyrup]

Understand? We're still going to sweep BC.

I prefer to live in the present, not the past.

The current polls put the Conservatives, disappointing as it may be to you, in last place in BC.

There are valid reasons for the resurence of the NDP in BC, such as:

1 - the unpopularity of the right-wing governemnt in BC

2 - the increase across Canada of NDP fortunes with Jack Layton

Things are very different now in BC.

[Pellaken]

THE Lord? I was thinking Bernard Lord.

trust me, in NB, the terms are interchangable

[BigGunner]

Understand? We're still going to sweep BC.

Wishful thinking.

How does a party that is in third place, score an absolute majority of seats? The conservatives will still do well in BC, but will be rolled back in several places.

My summary....

Liberal strength: West side of Vancouver, Richmond, Delta

Liberal weak: Vancouver Island, Northern BC, Okanagan

NDP strength: Vancouver Island, East Vacouver, Burnaby, Coquitlam, Kootenays, North coastal area

NDP weak: Fraser Valley, Northern BC, Okanagan

Conservative strength: Fraser Valley, North Shore (GVRD), Okanagan, Northern BC

Conservative weak: Vancouver, Burnaby, Vancouver Island

My BC Prediction,

Conservative 19

NDP 14

Liberal 3

Even this number is a little suspect. The Conservatives have only 27% of the vote at this point. Holding 19 seats might be impossible.

[Pellaken]

BC will decide this eleciton.

Ontario's results are a simple formula.

The better the NDP does, the better the tories do.

The better the tories do, the better the NDP does.

basacally, for every 2 seats the tories get, we get one. for every seat we get, they get 2.

BC, however, is the swing province. There are about 20 ridings that are totally swing. they could go for any of the 3 parties (yes, even the NDP)

[August1991]

BC will decide this eleciton.

Ontario's results are a simple formula.

On the contrary, Ontario is impossible to call. There are about 10 or so safe NDP seats and about 10 or so safe Liberal seats. After that, it's anyone's call - split between the Liberals and the Tories. (I can't see the NDP going above 15.)

The deciding factor in my view is how Ontario voters eventually decide to perceive Harper. They are looking for a safe "so-called national", alternative to the Liberals. And they haven't decided yet.

BC? Well, I suspect that on election night, we in the East will know early on what the Liberal total is. But we'll go to bed very late watching how voters on the other side of the Rockies decide which party gets the most seats.

[Pellaken]

I cant see the tories getting much above 30-40, but the NDP could easily hit 20. I dont see why the NDP cannot get 30 or even 40 seats in Ontario.

[maplesyrup]

BC? Well, I suspect that on election night, we in the East will know early on what the Liberal total is. But we'll go to bed very late watching how voters on the other side of the Rockies decide which party gets the most seats.

Actually none of us know at the moment how the election is going to turn out.

however if it is very close, the country will have to wait until the BC results are in, to see who wins.

Is there a news blackout because of the time zones?

[August1991]

Is there a news blackout because of the time zones?

There used to be but it hardly affected us in the East. We'd turn on the TV to see the 32 seats of the Maritimes. (OK, and Nfld...)

It was the Westerners that were outraged to turn on their TV and discover that the outcome was already decided.

With the Internet, all thought of a blackout is impossible.

Why don't they simply have one time-frame nationwide? In Nfld, the polls could close very late and in BC relatively early. Then there would be no question of Westerners being dissuaded from voting because of foregone conclusions.

Actually none of us know at the moment how the election is going to turn out.

True, but all the evidence is that it will be close.

[August1991]

I dont see why the NDP cannot get 30 or even 40 seats in Ontario.

Ain't gonna happen.

Don't believe me? Take the Ontario electoral map and look at the ridings. 30 NDP possibles are not there.

[Pellaken]

Layton can really sweep Toronto.

The 2 windsor seats

there are about 3/4 hamilton, etc, area seats we once won

we can take 2 seats in ottawa, possibly more. lets sat 4.

We have taken 10 seats in northern ontario in the past. That's 20 seats right there. The remainder would come from Toronto

[maplesyrup]

.

Why don't they simply have one time-frame nationwide? In Nfld, the polls could close very late and in BC relatively early. Then there would be no question of Westerners being dissuaded from voting because of foregone conclusions.

This seems like an ideal solution.

Has Mr Kingsley considered it?

[Pellaken]

.

Why don't they simply have one time-frame nationwide?  In Nfld, the polls could close very late and in BC relatively early.  Then there would be no question of Westerners being dissuaded from voting because of foregone conclusions.

This seems like an ideal solution.

Has Mr Kingsley considered it?

thats what they did from 1867 to 1993.

[maplesyrup]

True, but all the evidence is that it will be close.

August1991

It is impossible to realistically forecast any results, because there are still way too many variables, such as:

Election date: may be 1 & 1/2 years away from it.

Economy.

Who is going to lead Conservatives?

Who will leave the Conservatives once leader is chosen?

Scandal.

Public Accounts Committeee Interim Report.

Budget.

Election Platforms and strategy.

Strategic voting.

Performance of leaders.

Don't forget most recent polling showed PM Martin had 57% approval rating. No one else was even close.

We can't even forecast whether or not it will be close yet.

[August1991]

thats what they did from 1867 to 1993.

As we say in Quebec, what da 'ell?

In 1867, this was not a problem because there was no Internet. Heck, there wasn't even MTV. (Think, people had to listen to music without video!)

I think Macdonald lost in 1873 in his Kingston riding so, in the same election, he ran again in Manitoba - where he was safely elected. Macdonald had suppressed the Riel Rebellion and the anti-Macdonald vote had, let's say, fled the country.

In the 1980s, prior to the Internet, at 8 pm sharp, the local polls closed and CBC/CTV could tell the story - usually starting here in the East with - Newfoundland has voted...

Canada has, hmmm, Mountain, Central, Eastern, Atlantic, Nfld. That's 4 1/2 hours difference.

[Pellaken]

I got a card from elections canada telling me that I'm registered to vote. I think there will be a spring election.

[August1991]

I got a card from elections canada telling me that I'm registered to vote. I think there will be a spring election.

I think that's because of the new boundaries. The card probably tells you your circonscription (riding, incidentally, is a purely Canadian term. No other parliamentary system uses it.)

It is impossible to realistically forecast any results, because there are still way too many variables

Impossible to disagree with you.

1. But I think Martin has planned a spring election. (These guys are competitive and ambitious. They all remember Trudeau and 1968. It bugs the hell out of them. PM PM wants this victory so bad. Redeems his father, makes him proud in his father's eyes...)

2. Harper's got it.

Those are the key questions awaiting answers.

Another? Layton, Martin, Duceppe, Harper in debate. I frankly think Canadian politics won't be more interesting than that - in English and French.

Layton can really sweep Toronto.

Yeah right. Those Rosedale types and the people on Bay Street, Layton's got them in the bag.

Here's the link to the old/new electoral map:

Canadian Electoral Map

For Ontario, separate the north from the south.

[maplesyrup]

Spring has already started in parts of BC.

BC should get to vote first, otherwise we might have to interupt our Monday afternoon latte.

[maplesyrup]

speaking of BC, I think Liberal Heidi Fry might be doable in Vancouver Centre for the NDP.

The seats are starting to add up in BC for the NDP:

Svend Robinson

Libby Davies

Ian Waddell

Vancouver Centre

victoria area

I wonder when we will hear the actual details of the RCMP raid on the BC Legislature.

[August1991]

I wonder when we will hear the actual details of the RCMP raid on the BC Legislature.

I posted a CBC link about a BC Liberal on another thread here. The RCMP raid is weird too. I think everything in the case is closed. Why?

Victoria, Vancouver Island, NDP? I thought the island would be Reform. Sorry if I sound ignorant, but I've only been there twice and I'm relying on hear say.

[westcoast99]

I have no doubt they will likely double their popular vote, but picking up more than 2 seats doesn't seem realistic. If anything, increased NDP vote will only lead to a split on the left, giving the CPC more seats.

Edited August 12, 2015 by Gugsy

[August1991]

Gugsy, what was the BC sample size on those polls? If 1000 national, then they'd be 200 in BC. I'd only trust it if I saw several, which you've done.

So, why the BC support for the Liberals?

Also, is the Vancouver Island NDP? (Just curious.)

[Goldie]

Thanks for clearing that up Gugsy I couldn't be typing that much as I have a sprained wrist.

Victoria, Vancouver Island, NDP? I thought the island would be Reform. Sorry if I sound ignorant, but I've only been there twice and I'm relying on hear say.

August1991, Well you have an interesting mix of loggers and huggers on the Island. So you can figure it from there right? I was only to the Island twice too, but the locals couldn't help but show their disdain for the huggers interfering with the tree economy.

[westcoast99]

Gugsy, what was the BC sample size on those polls? If 1000 national, then they'd be 200 in BC. I'd only trust it if I saw several, which you've done.

So, why the BC support for the Liberals?

Also, is the Vancouver Island NDP? (Just curious.)

The sample sizes range from 800-2000.

I don't know the regional breakdowns provincially, sorry.