2004 Election Predictions

[August1991]

Here are my seat predictions (based on a spring election):

Atl

CPC 8

Lib 20

NDP 4

Que

BQ 55

Lib 20

Ont

CPC 45

Lib 51

NDP 10

SK/MB/Terr

CPC 14

Lib 2

NDP 15

Alta

CPC 28

BC

CPC 23

Lib 5

NDP 8

Totals

BQ 55

CPC 118

Lib 98

NDP 37

A CPC minority!

I'm assuming Harper is chosen leader.

Do these western numbers make any sense?

Ontario is the Joker. Gawd knows what will happen there.

[Pellaken]

I'm a little confused. If harper wins, I also see a minority possible for the tories, but if it looks like they are heading for a minority, the election may never get called

I am still thinking, debating, and looking at the polls and ridings.

personally, I'll crituque your prediction

Alta

CPC 28

I cannot see this, the Liberals will take 1 seat at least, likely 2.

SK/MB/Terr

CPC 14

Lib 2

NDP 15

I think the Liberals, who hold 7 seats right now, will gain, not lose seats here.

Ont

CPC 45

Lib 51

NDP 10

I cant see the new conservative party taking more then 30 seats, MAX here, my predictios have 25 or less.

[BigGunner]

Mine...

North

Liberal 2

NDP 1

Total 3

BC

CPC 19

NDP 14

Liberal 3

Total 36

Alberta

CPC 27

Liberal 1

Total 28

Sask/Man.

NDP 14

CPC 9

Liberal 5

Total 28

Ontario

Liberal 82

CPC 14

NDP 10

Total 106

Quebec

BQ 44

Liberal 30

NDP 1 *(Decasse! )

Total 75

Maritimes

Liberals 18

CPC 10

NDP 4

Total 32

National

Liberals 141

CPC 79

NDP 44

BQ 44

------------

Total 308

Say hello to a minority government!

[Pellaken]

what are you guys smoking?

Ontario:

Liberal - 45% - 75 seats

Conservative - 25% - 21 seats

New Democrat - 20% - 12 seats

Quebec:

Bloc Quebecois - 45% - 44 seats (1997 seat total)

Liberal - 40% - 31 seats

New Democrat - 5% - 0 seats (Ducasse will finish a strong third, or weak second)

Conservative - 5% - 0 seats

BC:

Conservative - 35% - 20 seats

Liberal - 35% - 10 seats

New Democrat - 25% - 6 seats

Green - 5% - 0 seats

Alberta:

Conservative - 60% - 26 seats

Liberal - 30% - 2 seats

New Democrat - 10% - 0 seats

Manitoba:

Liberal - 40% - 7 seats

New Democrat - 30% - 4 seats

Conservative - 25% - 3 seats

Saskatchewan:

New Democrat - 35% - 4 seats

Liberal - 35% - 4 seats

Conservative - 30% - 6 seats

Nova Scotia:

Liberal - 45% - 6 seats

New Democrat - 30% - 3 seats

Conservative - 25% - 2 seats

New Brunswick

Liberal - 50% - 6 seats

Conservative - 40% - 3 seats

New Democrat - 5% - 1 seat

Prince Edward Island

Liberal - 45% - 3 seats

Conservative - 45% - 1 seat

New Democrat - 5% - 0 seats

Newfoundland

Liberal - 45% - 4 seats

Conservative - 45% - 3 seats

New Democrat - 10% - 0 seats

Territories, seats: Liberal:2 Conservative:1

TOTAL:

Liberal - 150 - 40.5%

Conservative - 86 - 25.5% (same as CA in 2000)

Bloc - 44 - 10.7% (same pop vote as 1997 and 2000)

New Democrat - 30 - 16.5%

These are very preliminary numbers, and are subject to change.

[BigGunner]

what are you guys smoking?

Ontario:

Liberal - 45% - 75 seats

Conservative - 25% - 21 seats

New Democrat - 20% - 12 seats

Quebec:

Bloc Quebecois - 45% - 44 seats (1997 seat total)

Liberal - 40% - 31 seats

New Democrat - 5% - 0 seats (Ducasse will finish a strong third, or weak second)

Conservative - 5% - 0 seats

BC:

Conservative - 35% - 20 seats

Liberal - 35% - 10 seats

New Democrat - 25% - 6 seats

Green - 5% - 0 seats

Alberta:

Conservative - 60% - 26 seats

Liberal - 30% - 2 seats

New Democrat - 10% - 0 seats

Manitoba:

Liberal - 40% - 7 seats

New Democrat - 30% - 4 seats

Conservative - 25% - 3 seats

Saskatchewan:

New Democrat - 35% - 4 seats

Liberal - 35% - 4 seats

Conservative - 30% - 6 seats

Nova Scotia:

Liberal - 45% - 6 seats

New Democrat - 30% - 3 seats

Conservative - 25% - 2 seats

New Brunswick

Liberal - 50% - 6 seats

Conservative - 40% - 3 seats

New Democrat - 5% - 1 seat

Prince Edward Island

Liberal - 45% - 3 seats

Conservative - 45% - 1 seat

New Democrat - 5% - 0 seats

Newfoundland

Liberal - 45% - 4 seats

Conservative - 45% - 3 seats

New Democrat - 10% - 0 seats

Territories, seats: Liberal:2 Conservative:1

TOTAL:

Liberal - 150 - 40.5%

Conservative - 86 - 25.5% (same as CA in 2000)

Bloc - 44 - 10.7% (same pop vote as 1997 and 2000)

New Democrat - 30 - 16.5%

These are very preliminary numbers, and are subject to change.

I can only assume that you are using the election calculator to figure your prediction.

Starting with BC, the Conservatives are in third place behind the NDP. Their vote is clustered in the north and parts of the interior, and as such, will be rolled back all over the place. The Liberals get support from the wealthier parts of greater vancouver - not enough to grab 10 seats.

Alberta, the liberals will be lucky to hold one seat...let alone a second.

In Sask/Manitoba, the NDP will trounce all others in Manitoba, and will sweep the cities in Sask.

In Ontario, while the conservatives have recovered somewhat, the Liberals are still popular. (why? i have no idea..)

[August1991]

In Ontario, while the conservatives have recovered somewhat, the Liberals are still popular. (why? i have no idea..)

That's the tip-off, IMV. The Liberal support in Ontario - under Martin - is a mile wide and an inch deep. The problem is that Ontario voters are extremely reticent to vote for a westerner. This election may do it though. How did the Tories do in Ontario in 1979? I'd apply those numbers.

Your prediction and mine are similar except for Ontario, and sort of Quebec. (BTW, I don't see the Liberals getting 30 here. But I'd have to go through the ridings to confirm my suspicion.)

[August1991]

I'm a little confused. If harper wins, I also see a minority possible for the tories, but if it looks like they are heading for a minority, the election may never get called 

Your point is good, and may well transpire. But I suspect that Martin has locked himself into a spring election. The cabinet, Throne Speech, the coming budget are all designed for it. Keeping this going to the fall is a worse alternative.

The spring election scenario was to catch the opposition in disarray - which it will do. As the CBC constantly says, "no leader and no programme". The CPC is going to look very amateurish.

[Pellaken]

I can only assume that you are using the election calculator to figure your prediction.

no, I did not touch it to do these, which is why it should not carry too much weight just yet. once the tories pick a new leader, I will do up another riding by riding prediction

[willy]

Another day, another scandal. Look for the Liberal numbers to trend down as then news gets worse.

Harper wins and a platform in place expect them to pick up 10 - 15% across the country in an election. These are traditional gains for the Reform/Alliance during elections.

Liberals and CPC dead heat to the end.

NDP will pick up support in large urban areas.

Note the false logic of above. Percentage of support is not a good indication for seats. Broad base support in the low teens and low 20s can still mean little to no seats.

When the PCs got removed in 92 they still had 20% of the vote.

[Pellaken]

Another day, another scandal.

I think this will be the straw that breaks the camel's back. no spring election.

[Pellaken]

possible results of the next election:

BC

Con-30

NDP-6

The Liberals will be FLOORED here. Totally. British Columbians are getting more upset at scandal after scandal after scandal. They tossed the NDP out of party status becuase of a few scandals, I would not be surprised with this result

AB

Con-27

NDP-1

I think this is obvious, the tories will just do very well here. 70%-75% of the vote is not beyond the realm of possibility. The NDP, meanwhile, will pick up one riding, in the center of Edmonton. we've done it before. with the lack of the Liberals, it will become the NDP who will be the main opposition

SK

Con-10

NDP-4

These numbers look like those numbers we had in the 70's and 80's.

MB

Con-8

NDP-6

Again, traditional 70's/80's numbers

ON

Con-71

NDP-32

Lib-5

in 2000, the liberals won 5 ridings by more than 50% of the vote (70% for the libs, to a combined 20% for the tories)

The tories finished with less then 30% combined vote in a number of ridings in 2000.

PQ

BQ-61

Lib-5

Con-8

NDP-1

There are about 60 ridings the Bloc got more then 30% in. in 5, they finished below the combined PC/CA vote. The bloc does have a celing even within quebec.

NB

Con-8

NDP-2

The NDP did elect 2 MP's from NB in the past.

NS

NDP-6

Con-5

just like 1997

PE

Con-3

NDP-1

PEI was the best for the PC Party, in terms of pop vote, in the 93/97/00 elections, but due to the smalness, they did not elect any MP's. I think the NDP will make a real drive to elect an MP, even going so far as to run Dr.Herb in Charlottwtown (our most popular member, in our most popular region. he lives in western PEI)

NL

Con-5

NDP-2

Non-Tories will vote NDP

TR

NDP-2

Con-1

the Yukon will turn blue.

TOTALS:

Con-183

NDP-62

BQ-61

Lib-10 *does not make official party status*

like honestly, unless the Liberals do something and do it now, they are dead

[udawg]

The only number I honestly can't realistically see (not that it wouldn't be nice...) is your 71 CPC seats in Ontario. They might be angry at the Liberals, but they probably don't trust the Conservatives either. And when all else fails, Ontario always votes for the incumbent.

[maplesyrup]

I think Quebec holds the key to Liberal fortunes in the upcoming election.

If the Liberals are not able to close the gap with the Bloc in Quebec the Liberals will have lots of trouble getting another majority government.

[Galahad]

no spring election.

Agreed!

I predict June 22. The 24th at the latest.

I also predict a Liberal majority. A slim majority. But not too slim.

[August1991]

I also predict a Liberal majority. A slim majority. But not too slim.

Galahad, can we see your numbers? Where are they going to get the seats to form a majority?

I think Quebec holds the key to Liberal fortunes in the upcoming election.

I disagree. The Liberals are more or less done now, outside of the hard core west Montreal ridings - they may get at most 30 seats. But this matters less than Ontario which is the real key and conundrum. North and NW Ontario tends to vote like Manitoba - how many seats are there?

[westcoast99]

The Tories have some time to work for a government, although it's clear: the Conservatives must win the majority of the seats in Ontario for a majority government.

Edited August 12, 2015 by Gugsy

[maplesyrup]

I think you are jumping the gun a bit on things in Quebec. It is still too early to tell. We have a bit of time yet before the election.

The problem for Canadians right now, is that although they are upset with the Liberals, they don't find the alternatives very palatable.

I think the next election will be fight between the perceived forces of intolerance versus the perceived forces of corruption. Take your pick.

[Pellaken]

gugsy:

the NDP wont get 15% in NB, we wont do that well.

the NDP wont get 15% in NS, we dont do that poorly.

also, as for your BC comments, makes me think your using UBC's forcaster.

some of the CA's old vote, especailly in BC, SK, and MB, was very populist. Some left-wing populists (like me) would have voted CA because of their stance on things like senate reform, etc. Many CAers will go NDP, especially if the NDP can play itself to be populist.

as for our NS seats

in Halifax, in the recent re-distribution of seats, a pro-NDP area was taken from the neighbouring riding, and added to Halifax, and an anti-NDP area was taken out of the Halifax riding. We are also doing VERY well in Dartmouth. The only riding we may lose is Peter Stoffer's riding, but Stoffer is getting quite a personalist campaign going, he's very popular. While I would not be surprised if our vote in the 28 of the 32 ridings in the east where we did not elect a candidate were cut in half, if we lost any of our 4 seats, I would be surprised.

and as for my 180 tory seat prediction, its more of a "what could happen" then a "what I really and honestly think will happen"

[Galahad]

Galahad, can we see your numbers?

Details, details.

I'm a "big picture" man.

[westcoast99]

the NDP wont get 15% in NB, we wont do that well.
the NDP wont get 15% in NS, we dont do that poorly.

The 15% is a rough number. Also, the last poll I saw showed the NDP at 12% in Atlantic Canada. Edited August 12, 2015 by Gugsy

[maplesyrup]

My prediction -- taken from voting trends, polls, candidates, and just plain mathematics:

British Columbia

Liberal: 8 (30%)

Conservative: 24 (40%)

NDP: 2 (25%)

This is really quite wishful thinking.

For example:

The Conservatives in BC are last, not first, of the three main parties, according to the last poll:

CPC 27% last

Lib 33% first

NDP 29% second

[August1991]

Galahad, can we see your numbers?

Details, details.

I'm a "big picture" man.

I once I had a "big picture" boss. I quit.

Hey, don't take that seriously.

Instead, go for the gusto! Give us some big numbers. (Hint: They have to add up to 308.)

[Galahad]

HEY ALL YOU HARPERITES!

Are you betting on Ralph & Mike to give your boy a helping hand come election time? Want Presto's and Lord's blessing?

NO WAY JOSE .... AIN'T GONNA HAPPEN!

Paul Martin's Liberals will rack up 154 plus seats .... I promise you that.

Galahad

[August1991]

Lord? Here's a good one.

Lord makes a smart move, jumps in, gets elected, goes into Cabinet at Finance. As a result, Harper's a shoo-in. Shoein? Shoe-fit?

15 years later, we're older/wiser. We're posting about how Lord became PM through a coup and how Harper has left him spoiled goods.

Nah, impossible. Tories don't do stuff like that.

[Galahad]

Lord? Here's a good one.

Forget the Lord. He probably doesn't even exist.

But please answer me this ... ARE you betting that Preston Manning, Ralph Klein and Mike Harris will be clapping for Harper come election time? Is THAT why you took the CPC to win??

You will lose. I just thought I'd tell you.