Federal Liberal Leader - 2009

[August1991]

There's no doubt in my mind that the Liberals will not let Stéphane Dion stay on as leader. (The simple fact that pro-Dion Jason Cherniak has decided no longer to blog is evidence enough. Jason ia a Liberal's Liberal.)

So then, who will be the next federal Liberal leader?

I happen to think that the choice is between Ignatieff and Rae and I think both will choose a cheap way to decide the issue. Internet votes or something. (Kennedy is young and he'll wait still longer. Others will wait too since the Liberals have no money.)

Ignatieff and Rae? No doubt in my mind - Ignatieff.

As soon as Ignatieff becomes Liberal leader, expect a federal election and Stephen Harper can expect a true opponent, even in French.

-----

I thought Dion would last and I thought this decade would become the Harper/Dion decade. The potential existed. Well, I was wrong. Dion didn't rise to the occasion politically and Harper didn't rise to the occasion in Quebec.

Both are finished.

[jdobbin]

There's no doubt in my mind that the Liberals will not let Stéphane Dion stay on as leader. (The simple fact that pro-Dion Jason Cherniak has decided no longer to blog is evidence enough. Jason ia a Liberal's Liberal.)

He is going down to the States from what he has indicated. Going to do some work to ensure an Obama win as requested by some people looking for his skills.

He has joined my Liberal Policy Options group though in the last day.

So then, who will be the next federal Liberal leader?

I happen to think that the choice is between Ignatieff and Rae and I think both will choose a cheap way to decide the issue. Internet votes or something. (Kennedy is young and he'll wait still longer. Others will wait too since the Liberals have no money.)

Ignatieff and Rae? No doubt in my mind - Ignatieff.

As soon as Ignatieff becomes Liberal leader, expect a federal election and Stephen Harper can expect a true opponent, even in French.

I'd say the fight is between Rae and Ignatieff. We'll see. There might be some sort arrangement ala Blair/Brown prior though.

That all could change with a jump in from someone like a McKenna.

I thought Dion would last and I thought this decade would become the Harper/Dion decade. The potential existed. Well, I was wrong. Dion didn't rise to the occasion politically and Harper didn't rise to the occasion in Quebec.

Both are finished.

Harper has had a lot of kicks at the can. Dion probably one too many.

Edited October 18, 2008 by jdobbin

[August1991]

Harper has had a lot of kicks at the can. Dion probably one too many.

For the Tories, there is no other leader than Harper.

When Harper loses the next federal election against Ignatieff (and Harper will lose), who will replace Harper? The federal Conservatives have no depth.

This 2008 election has been a disaster for the federal Conservatives. They didn't get a majority because they didn't get 10 more seats in Quebec. I don't think English Canadians understand Canada. Harper apparently doesn't.

Harper should have listened to Bernier rather than Fortier. Or rather, to Harper, they're just French guys whose names finish in "er".

Edited October 17, 2008 by August1991

[jdobbin]

For the Tories, there is no other leader than Harper.

When Harper loses the next federal election against Ignatieff (and Harper will lose), who will replace Harper? The federal Conservatives have no depth.

The only man I see in cabinet who has the chops is Prentice. I have no idea how his French is.

This 2008 election has been a disaster for the federal Conservatives. They didn't get a majority because they didn't get 10 more seats in Quebec. I don't think English Canadians understand Canada. Harper apparently doesn't.

Harper should have listened to Bernier rather than Fortier. Or rather, to Harper, they're just French guys whose names finish in "er".

The majority was probably the only way Harper could stay for the a full term (although I still suspect that he would find a reason to go the polls even with a majority if he could find a way).

[Bryan]

Ignatief could not beat Dion, but Harper did. You guys think that LOSING to the weakest leader the Liberals have ever had puts Ignatief in a position of strength?

[TCCK]

Maybe someone with integrity and a tiny shred of morals for a change.

Get a good leader and one that demands Chretien be charged for the scandals he took part in then maybe I would support the party again.

[drewski]

if McKenna runs, I think he'll take it easily. Some other ex-Chretien ministers, like Tobin, or Manley to a lesser extent (Liberals pissed at him for running a Harper commission?) would have a decent chance too.

If it were down to Ignatieff or Rae, I think Iggy would/should take it cause Rae will alienate the base in Ontario and the right wing of the party

[Sir Bandelot]

I think that none of the above is the answer, and what they need is a fresh young face to revive the party's credibility. Any of the old guard represents the past and I think Canadians still hold resentment for the sponsorship scandal. They need someone with charisma. In other words, someone like Stephen Harper. But I don't think it should be Justin Trudeau because he is too new and needs to prove himself more, because people would see that as an obvious gimmick ala Sarah Palin. In other words, someone younger who has a bit of a track record and enough personality to inspire people.

Yet there isn't anyone who comes to mind. These things have to be planned strategically years in advance but the old guard has been too protective of their turf in the Liberal party, have not been thinking enough about the future and should have been grooming some new people to help them rise in the ranks. Especially as Harper rose to power, they should have known this. I think it will be hard times for the Liberal party for years to come, possibly much worse than this now and maybe they need to go the way of the dinosaur, or PC's

[White Doors]

If McKenna wants it, he's got it. No one would be able to stop him. simple.

[Topaz]

If McKenna wants it, he's got it. No one would be able to stop him. simple.

Duffy talked about this and the news guys said McKenna doesn't want it.

[Topaz]

If you want a fresh face does that mean going on to generation X like the younger Libs within the party? I think with the war and the other problems we need someone with a little more experience. I'm just wondering if Bill Casey would cross the floor and become a Lib? He won again after voting against the Harper's Atlantic Accord and people do like their rep. to stand up for THEM and NOT the leader. He also would be a leder for the conservatives but they seemed not that smart to lose a valuable member. I like to see Paul Martin come back as leader but I think its going to be Rae and Iggy.

[nbguyca]

Duffy talked about this and the news guys said McKenna doesn't want it.

Why would he, he has too much to lose.

[capricorn]

I liked McKenna for Liberal leader. But, this should rule him out.

In fact, McKenna is hardly a rank outsider in Washington. Before being appointed ambassador, he was on the Canadian advisory board of the Carlyle Group, a Washington, D.C.-based investment firm with links to former U.S. president George H.W. Bush. When those ties became an issue after he was named Canada's representative in Washington early this year, McKenna downplayed them. "I have a relationship with a few members of the Bush family," he said. "But it is not a very tight, strong relationship." Still, any connection to the Bush clan is a calling card in today's Republican-dominated Washington. Add to that McKenna's track record, back in the late eighties, as a strong proponent of the Canada-U.S. free trade deal, and his business-friendly, budget-balancing policies as New Brunswick premier, and some left-of-centre Liberals might begin to get leery. "Clearly, he's on the right wing of the party," says York University political science professor Robert MacDermid.

http://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.com/ind...s=M1ARTM0012815

The above 2005 opinion piece is relevant today. The Liberals hammered Harper with accusations of being Bush-like and adopting Republican style policies. They cannot select a leader who is perceived to be Bush-friendly.

First of all, the Liberals should not select a leader remotely linked to the Chretien/Martin days. Neither should they go for Rae. He has pulled the Liberals too far to the left and his Ontario record continues to haunt him. I think Iggy is their best choice. He is fluent in French and a passionate speaker. He is the best positioned to return the Liberals toward the centre. He has the organization in place to mount a leadership campaign which could easily mobilize in a general election. He also appears to have widespread appeal and that includes in Quebec.

[munsinger]

Well, Iggy's style would certainly fit in real well with the overall Liberal "sense of entitlement" and "natural ruling party" delusions.....as he is completely full of himself....

Not sure how picking him... would be distancing themselves from the "right wing", anyways...

[capricorn]

Well, Iggy's style would certainly fit in real well with the overall Liberal "sense of entitlement" and "natural ruling party" delusions.....as he is completely full of himself....

Yes, Iggy comes across as elitist. But Liberals like that.

Not sure how picking him... would be distancing themselves from the "right wing", anyways...

Good point. Like all politicians, Iggy has to restrain himself. It's a balancing act. But I think a lot of Liberals don't agree with how far left the Liberal Party has moved and IMO this was a factor in their disastrous electoral showing.

[Pliny]

Well, Iggy's style would certainly fit in real well with the overall Liberal "sense of entitlement" and "natural ruling party" delusions.....as he is completely full of himself....

Not sure how picking him... would be distancing themselves from the "right wing", anyways...

Completely full of himself? You mean - a perfect politician? Another Chretien?

Well, as far as Liberals go, I suppose he would be representing the majority.

He is more of a centrist from my limited understanding of him so I am not sure how he would be distancing the Liberals from the right wing (As if there were one - "opposition" would be a better term) either?

[Mad_Michael]

As soon as Ignatieff becomes Liberal leader, expect a federal election and Stephen Harper can expect a true opponent, even in French.

-----

I thought Dion would last and I thought this decade would become the Harper/Dion decade.

Your last point calls into question the quality of your judgement/analysis offered in the first.

Btw, Rae speaks French more fluently than Iggy. Check it out.

[blueblood]

For the Tories, there is no other leader than Harper.

When Harper loses the next federal election against Ignatieff (and Harper will lose), who will replace Harper? The federal Conservatives have no depth.

This 2008 election has been a disaster for the federal Conservatives. They didn't get a majority because they didn't get 10 more seats in Quebec. I don't think English Canadians understand Canada. Harper apparently doesn't.

Harper should have listened to Bernier rather than Fortier. Or rather, to Harper, they're just French guys whose names finish in "er".

Yes but who thought that when Harper first became leader of the CPC, he would walk into the PM chair.

The tories have very good strategists (barring what happened in quebec), they can dress up who they think can lead just as they dressed up Harper.

Just because the tories are a well oiled machine with strict discipline does not mean that there aren't any potential leaders in there.

The tories should be running attack ads of Gilles Duceppe and ads explaining the basic principles of fiscal conservatism as soon as possible in quebec, the Liberals aren't a problem there.

[Sir Bandelot]

The tories have very good strategists (barring what happened in quebec), they can dress up who they think can lead just as they dressed up Harper.

Yeah they probably got a lot of help from the IRI

[cybercoma]

It is indeed only a matter of time. Joe Volpe has called for Dion to step down and a new Liberal MP, Scott Andrews of NFLD, is also calling for Dion's resignation.

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2008/10/17/volpe-dion.html

Edited October 17, 2008 by cybercoma

[nbguyca]

I liked McKenna for Liberal leader. But, this should rule him out.

http://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.com/ind...s=M1ARTM0012815

The above 2005 opinion piece is relevant today. The Liberals hammered Harper with accusations of being Bush-like and adopting Republican style policies. They cannot select a leader who is perceived to be Bush-friendly.

First of all, the Liberals should not select a leader remotely linked to the Chretien/Martin days. Neither should they go for Rae. He has pulled the Liberals too far to the left and his Ontario record continues to haunt him. I think Iggy is their best choice. He is fluent in French and a passionate speaker. He is the best positioned to return the Liberals toward the centre. He has the organization in place to mount a leadership campaign which could easily mobilize in a general election. He also appears to have widespread appeal and that includes in Quebec.

McKenna also has ties to Bill Clinton. Neither would be much of a factor if he decided to run.

[cybercoma]

I also think this poll should have listed Rae, Ignatieff, Kennedy, McKenna and Manley. Those are the clear front-runners to replace Dion.

[Mad_Michael]

I also think this poll should have listed Rae, Ignatieff, Kennedy, McKenna and Manley. Those are the clear front-runners to replace Dion.

Only Rae, Ignatieff and Kennedy are credible candidates at this point (since they finished in the top 4).

Manley and McKenna have both previously ruled out running. They may in the future change their minds, but until then, neither of them are realistic candidates.

[Mad_Michael]

McKenna also has ties to Bill Clinton. Neither would be much of a factor if he decided to run.

Ties to Bill Clinton are not going to hurt anyone running for office in Canada. Clinton has very high popularity in Canada.

Heck, I'd wager that Bill or Hillary Clinton could be elected PM up here (not sure on Bill's French language skills though - but as a Rhodes scholar, it wouldn't surprise me).

[cybercoma]

Only Rae, Ignatieff and Kennedy are credible candidates at this point (since they finished in the top 4).

Manley and McKenna have both previously ruled out running. They may in the future change their minds, but until then, neither of them are realistic candidates.

Of all the possibilities, they are the only other two that could change their minds and make a difference. Save for Justin Trudeau running for leadership, but I don't think he's that brash and he would no doubt pay the price for it. I see what you mean though, at this point there's really no point in adding them.

Edited October 17, 2008 by cybercoma