Cpc Bq Coalition

[August1991]

The French forum I watch has gone humourously bananas about this latest installment of the ongoing saga. (Political Rule Number One: Don't let the helium out of the balloon slowly and sound like a complete fool in every sentence you utter.) The comments concern who got what, who should have got what and comparisons about how the PQ and federal Liberals punish their own. (Quebec Federal Liberals are in a league of their own...)

But there's an ongoing discussion about a 'strange' question: What chances are there for a BQ-CPC coalition? The BQ will obviously not put forward candidates outside Quebec. The CPC will run candidates everywhere including Quebec. But the CPC Quebec candidates pose no opposition to BQ candidates. In practical terms, the two parties are not opponents.

Now, post election, what chance is there for a tacit coalition? An explicit coalition? What chance of a pre-election nod? The only French coverage of the CPC candidates' debate put front and centre Harper's statement that he had spoken to Duceppe on occasion.

Is this fantasyland stuff? French posters understand the BQ is the kiss-of-death to any anglo party. And they consider Reformers as "non-progressive".

Any comments?

[Goldie]

No. I would say that no official coalition government be formed by these two entities.

I do not believe that Quebec really wants to separate and uses this threat to justify an unbalanced approach in confederation.

If Bloq members wish to seek more powers for that province then they should join the conservatives. The new party is the only one that can form a government and actually wants to protect and enhance provincial jurisdiction, As is evident when Harper stated "build a firewall around Alberta".

Individual members would have to denounce independance and join a party that wants a united Canada with strong autonomous provinces.

[Galahad]

What chances are there for a BQ-CPC coalition?

Zero!

[Galahad]

What chances are there for a BQ-CPC coalition?

Zero!

Sorry .... had to run & became very terse with my reply.

I just don't think that it is possible for ANY Canadian party to form a coalition with a party whose main objective is to break up Canada.

The Bloc is certainly not pushing the issue now, but it has not issued a statement that it's aims have changed & it would be political suicide for any other party to join up with them until such time as they did.

They'll get together informally for certain issues, as any two parties will...but a formal pact?

Zero chance, as I said.

Now if only Mario Dumont's ADQ were a federal party and Preston Manning were the leader of the CPC then I'd bet my bottom dollar that they would join forces and that Paul Martin would be shaking in his boots now.

[August1991]

Discussing a minority government at this point is hypothetical in the extreme, nevertheless it seems possible. Moreover, the next Parliament risks being a four way split in which choosing the government may not be obvious. Liberals could govern in a stable manner with NDP support if the combined numbers are sufficient.

The question, in a sense, is whether the CPC could govern with BQ support ? This is what French posters were considering - but I think it's wishful thinking on their part. They simply want to believe that the Liberals will be excluded from power.

More realistically, I see a Liberal rump playing off the three others as necessary to get a majority on critical issues.

The tradition in Canada has been for the party with a plurality of seats to form a government. But this need not be the case. It would be as if the Liberals had remained in power in 1979 (as some Liberals wanted).

The final fact is that the CPC will go nowhere in French Quebec. (I recall the 1984 election when they crossed over to Mulroney. For many, it was a leap of faith. Such conditions simply don't exist now. French Quebec will simply vote BQ.)

As a result, there is a de facto coalition between the CPC and the BQ. They do not compete at the riding level. Admitting the existence of this situation is advantageous to the BQ because it makes them credible in the eyes of French Quebec voters. For the CPC however, this idea only provokes negatives in the eyes of English Canada voters. It's a fact no CPC leader can publicly hint. (I thought Harper was courageously honest to say what he said about Duceppe.)

Politics makes strange bedfellows.

With that truism, your suggestion of a Manning/Dumont coalition made me laugh. But in fact, there is some sense to it. But I always thought that Manning had weight. Dumont is too much of a dilettante. The similarity however is that Ontario voters view Manning the way French Quebec voters view Dumont. Possible, but not for real.

[Galahad]

As a result, there is a de facto coalition between the CPC and the BQ.  They do not compete at the riding level.  Admitting the existence of this situation is advantageous to the BQ because it makes them credible in the eyes of French Quebec voters.  For the CPC however, this idea only provokes negatives in the eyes of English Canada voters.  It's a fact no CPC leader can publicly hint.  (I thought Harper was courageously honest to say what he said about Duceppe.)

Politics makes strange bedfellows.

With that truism, your suggestion of a Manning/Dumont coalition made me laugh.  But in fact, there is some sense to it.  But I always thought that Manning had weight.  Dumont is too much of a dilettante.  The similarity however is that Ontario voters view Manning the way French Quebec voters view Dumont.  Possible, but not for real.

I still don't see your main premise that the CPC & the Bloc could form a de facto coalition. If this is so, why did we not see it already with the Alliance/BQ?

As for Mario & Preston...Manning kept asking where his "LaFontaine" was, and at the time there existed no such animal as a conservative "right wing" Quebecois politician. Enter Mario.

Had Preston & Dumont been able to pull off a shared leadership ala Baldwin & LaFontaine I think we could have pulled this country out of the doldrums.

As for my predictions...I'll go with Preston's observations on this one.... Ontario hates uncertainty & risk. I say they vote Liberal...thus giving the Liberals their majority. I further predict that Martin may only want one term...thus enabling him to actually make a difference (no voters to worry about next round).

At least that's what I'm hoping.

[August1991]

I still don't see your main premise that the CPC & the Bloc could form a de facto coalition.

It's not a question of forming a coalition. The coalition exists in fact now. At least, coalition in the sense of agreeing not to put forward candidates in ridings where they'll compete. For the CPC and the BQ, this is the case. BQ wants this to be known. The CPC not.

As for Mario & Preston...Manning kept asking where his "LaFontaine" was, and at the time there existed no such animal as a conservative "right wing" Quebecois politician. Enter Mario.

Baldwin? Lafontaine? That was 100 years ago or more. Pre Confederation. Sorry, but that world no longer exists. Then, French Canada was part of BNA by force of arms. At the time, the idea of anything other was absolutely out of the question. Canada, you should know, did not come about by free association.

There are no Lafontaines available now. Well, they exist but most are called Ouellet or Pelletier or Chretien. Different kettle of fish. Why? Because the original Lafontaines are free to choose. There will be no more force of arms. (Thank God, and the true lesson Canada has to offer the world.)

Mario? Have you ever heard of the Allard report? (Imagine Quebec passports financed by equalization payments.)

Look, the French forums have their whimsy and so do the English forums. This either makes Canada a fascinating country or schizophrenic.

I'll go with Preston's observations on this one.... Ontario hates uncertainty & risk. I say they vote Liberal...thus giving the Liberals their majority.

As an Easterner, Manning (son, not father) has always impressed me as someone with an original, intelligent, sensible take on this story. (Diversity is not as easy as some pretend. To my Eastern mind, Manning was agreeably diverse.)

I have never seen this quote before. I'd like to see it in context. IMV, many people in Ontario will vote for any party that they perceive as being the National Party; that is, the party that seems to have support in Quebec. The fear of Quebec separation is greatest in Ontario. Without Quebec, many voters in Ontario believe Canada will not exist and then Ontario will be, well, Michigan. To say they hate "uncertainty and risk" is misplaced.

I say they vote Liberal...thus giving the Liberals their majority. I further predict that Martin may only want one term.

I disagree. This scandal is like the Air Traffic Controllers strike in 1976. In fact, it's worse. Money's on the table. All that's missing is sex. (Imagine some ad agency paid for company for an anglophone Cabinet minister during a lonely night in Quebec City?)

Martin want one term? The guy is getting his OAP and he wants to be PM too. Sorry. His view is bigger.

[Galahad]

The coalition exists in fact now. At least, coalition in the sense of agreeing not to put forward candidates in ridings where they'll compete.  For the CPC and the BQ, this is the case.

How many ridings are we talking about here? 2? Or will the BQ go full tilt boogie and let the CPC run alone in 3?

Baldwin? Lafontaine? That was 100 years ago or more. There are no Lafontaines available now.

This is one to be put into context. The Quebec "question" is ALWAYS there for any federal politician. In Manning's case he was perceived as an almost unilingual Westerner who could not possibly understand the deep soul of the Quebecois. So, although a joint Prime Ministership would never fly these days, having a right hand Quebec man with similar views to his could make him palatable to the Quebecois. It may have been 100 years ago, but la plus ca change...etc etc.. Mario was the man, but he came too late.

At a reading I attended of Preston's even HE acknowledged the fact that Mario could have been his LaFontaine, but came on the scene too late.

I have never seen this quote before.  I'd like to see it in context.  IMV, many people in Ontario will vote for any party that they perceive as being the National Party; that is, the party that seems to have support  in Quebec.  The fear of Quebec separation is greatest in Ontario.  To say they hate "uncertainty and risk" is misplaced.

This quote is on page 182 of Manning's book "Think Big". The context was a looming election wherein there was a possibility of a minority government. Could it be any more relevant today?

Martin want one term?  Sorry.  His view is bigger.

If he doesn't earn our great admiration in one term YOU BET he'll want to stay. But he will, mark my words.

[August1991]

 

The coalition exists in fact now. At least, coalition in the sense of agreeing not to put forward candidates in ridings where they'll compete.  For the CPC and the BQ, this is the case. 

How many ridings are we talking about here? 2? Or will the BQ go full tilt boogie and let the CPC run alone in 3?

The CPC can present candidates in all Quebec ridings but this is irrelevant. None will get any votes. It's as if the candidates were not running.

In Manning's case he was perceived as an almost unilingual Westerner who could not possibly understand the deep soul of the Quebecois. So, although a joint Prime Ministership would never fly these days, having a right hand Quebec man with similar views to his could make him palatable to the Quebecois. It may have been 100 years ago, but la plus ca change...etc etc.. Mario was the man, but he came too late.

Let me try to explain again. When Baldwin and Lafontaine formed a "joint" government in Canada East and Canada West, French Canadians were not exactly free to choose.

[Many Albertans are still resentful of the NEP. Imagine the federal government had occupied Alberta and abolished the provincial government, arresting anybody who disagreed. Then, they find someone in Alberta who will agree to do a deal. (Quisling or Petain would be extreme examples. After all, this is the federal government.) I'm sorry but this is the history of Quebec from 1759 to 1837.]

In the 1900s, this "Lafontaine position" evolved into the role of "Quebec Lieutenant". Trudeau rightly wanted to do away with the whole idea, given his premise that, bygones be bygones, Quebec was indeed part of Canada. (Having seen WW II, Trudeau also had ideas about nationalism and perfecting society.)

Nowadays - early 2000s - French Quebec realizes Canada will not be maintained by force of arms and they are free to choose. Those that choose to put their lot in with English Canada tend to be the Ouellets and the Pelletiers of this world. I don't know if Mario would want to be considered as such.

Last point: I don't know if Preston meant, as you suggested, that he was looking for an honest equal on the French Quebec side. That's why I asked for context. Thank you for the source. I'll look it up.

If he doesn't earn our great admiration in one term YOU BET he'll want to stay. But he will, mark my words.

I think it's too late for your man. He has lost forever the votes he needed to form a majority. I think he's in the process of losing the votes he needs to do better than Turner in 1984.

I don't live in PM PM's riding but my local neighbourhood paper covers his riding. There was a column this week with interviews with constituents. It's sad to pathetic. They have to say that they believe he's honest. "He was here on my doorstep, I am sure he's an honest man", said the 67 year-old pensioner of Lasalle.

When politicians get to this, they are in deep, deep trouble.

[Galahad]

I don't know if Preston meant, as you suggested, that he was looking for an honest equal on the French Quebec side.  That's why I asked for context.  Thank you for the source.  I'll look it up.

That's exactly what I suggested & what Preston suggested. Grab "Think Big"...it's a great read & it'll make you weep that that man never got a shot at the brass ring.

I don't live in PM PM's riding but my local neighbourhood paper covers his riding.  There was a column this week with interviews with constituents.  It's sad to pathetic.  They have to say that they believe he's  honest. "He was here on my doorstep, I am sure he's an honest man", said the 67 year-old pensioner of Lasalle.

When politicians get to this, they are in deep, deep trouble.

It's not pathetic at all. The accusations flying at that he is knee deep in this scandal & is lying about his involvement.

Honesty IS the issue here. The old guy has a good handle on the crux of the matter.

[August1991]

Galahad, we seem to be the sole posters who make this discussion. (Well, thank you maplesyrup and the Lethbridge organizers.)

IOW, even if there are few replies, I look at the number of 'Views' .

(More likely, living in big city Montreal, I look at the French newspaper headlines. Today? Harper, coalition, mygawd.)

Then again, and for a final look, I believe all is truly irrelevant. Ephemeral? Allow me three points.

1. I flipped through that book two years or so ago. I thought, "It's not 'No Holds Barred'. Manning's got an agenda. I'm not giving him my money." Because of your comment, I'll buy and read. (In Montreal, that's possible.)

2. In modern times, THERE IS NO HONEST EQUAL ON THE FRENCH SIDE. eg. Brian Mulroney danced with George Bush Senior. As an anglo-Candian, do you think Mulroney was honest or an American lapdog? (Get my point?)

3. I have seen and worked with politicians upfront. IMO, your guy does not have a good handle on the crux of the matter. He's pedalling.

[maplesyrup]

Every day that goes by it seems that another person is going to come out of the woodwork - like Myriam Bedard today.

The Liberals have to go to the polls soon.

I think there just has to be some ministerial accountability.

Someone, a current sitting Liberal MP has to resign to show some ministerial responsibility.

Until that happens Canadians will continue to fume over this scandal.

My 2 cents.

PS oops. I think I posted this in the wrong thread. Sorry.

Actually the NDP is at 13% in the polls in Quebec. do they have a chance at any of the seats. What about LaCasse is that his name who ran for the NDP leadership. Is he running in Mulroney's old riding?