Will lower crime rate hurt Conservatives?

[capricorn]

Canada's national crime rate fell in 2007 for the third straight year, with declines in everything from homicides and gun crimes to minor property offences, says a new report.

And some say numbers released Thursday by Statistics Canada could strip some political ammunition away from the Conservative government, which has styled itself as the party that's toughest on crime.

"If crime rates continue to come down, then eventually the level of fear will not rise, but it might actually taper off or stabilize, in which case the usefulness of it as a ballot question for the Conservatives will weaken over time," said Bruce Anderson, president of polling firm Harris-Decima.

http://cnews.canoe.ca/CNEWS/Crime/2008/07/17/6183901-cp.html

The Conservatives have not implemented their full law and order agenda. The article raises an interesting question. On the other side of the coin, could some voters credit the Conservative get tough on crime message for reduction in crime? What about women and seniors, two demographic groups who appear to be very concerned about crime? If women's fears about crime are lessened, perhaps they would also shed some of their fears about Harper.

[August1991]

From link above:

A keystone of the Tories' fall agenda is expected to be tackling violent youth crime, one trouble spot in the Canadian record. It has been increasing steadily over the last two decades, said Statistics Canada, and the rate in 2007 was "more than double that reported in the mid-1980s."

...

The Statistics Canada figures may not tell the whole story. Irvin Waller, director of the Institute for Prevention of Crime at the University of Ottawa, says fewer people are reporting crimes to police because they are disillusioned with the justice system.

[Visionseeker]

The Conservatives have not implemented their full law and order agenda. The article raises an interesting question. On the other side of the coin, could some voters credit the Conservative get tough on crime message for reduction in crime? What about women and seniors, two demographic groups who appear to be very concerned about crime? If women's fears about crime are lessened, perhaps they would also shed some of their fears about Harper.

I don’t believe that the Conservatives’ “tough on crime” agenda won them any converts at the last poll. The latest crime figures tell me that the issue is unlikely to win them any converts at the next.

I’d hate to be a conservative strategist right now. So much of the ideologically driven agenda is becoming more out of step with the times. They have their base (26-28%) and some swing (6-10%) to play with. But that won’t give them a majority at the next contest unless something earth-shattering happens in their favour. An Obama win in November would only serve to make matters worse.

[Smallc]

I don’t believe that the Conservatives’ “tough on crime” agenda won them any converts at the last poll. The latest crime figures tell me that the issue is unlikely to win them any converts at the next.

I’d hate to be a conservative strategist right now. So much of the ideologically driven agenda is becoming more out of step with the times. They have their base (26-28%) and some swing (6-10%) to play with. But that won’t give them a majority at the next contest unless something earth-shattering happens in their favour. An Obama win in November would only serve to make matters worse.

If the Liberals had a real leader, They wouldn't have any of that swing. There wouldn't even be a question of who would win the next election.

[Visionseeker]

From link above:

Right, crime is on the decline b/c people are too pissed with the police to report it.

Irvin is the director of which institute exactly? Sounds to me like he’s more interested in his own continued research budgets than actual crime prevention.

Crime and age demographics are correlated. We are getting older in Canada and therefore less likely to do B&Es, it’s as simple as that.

[Visionseeker]

If the Liberals had a real leader, They wouldn't have any of that swing. There wouldn't even be a question of who would win the next election.

IMO No. That swing would still be there regardless. Swingers identify themselves only at the polls. Also, counting out Dion is a mistake made by too many people in both academia and the Liberal party.

The Conservatives have maligned Dion from day one. The act has proven old. They need something else to go on and I really have a hard time trying to figure out what that might be.

They (the Conservatives) needed to raise their numbers by appealing to the centre at the outset of their rule. They didn’t do that and have thus labelled themselves in a niche. Harper could still win another minority, but he will have failed to deliver the ultimate prize of a majority and will be pushed to leave.

Of all the leaders, the one with the best odd to survive the next election has to be Dion.

[Fortunata]

The Conservatives have not implemented their full law and order agenda. The article raises an interesting question. On the other side of the coin, could some voters credit the Conservative get tough on crime message for reduction in crime? What about women and seniors, two demographic groups who appear to be very concerned about crime? If women's fears about crime are lessened, perhaps they would also shed some of their fears about Harper.

So, capricorn, as one of the herd, what do you attribute the lessening crime rate to? Harper?

[Smallc]

IMO No. That swing would still be there regardless. Swingers identify themselves only at the polls. Also, counting out Dion is a mistake made by too many people in both academia and the Liberal party.

The Conservatives have maligned Dion from day one. The act has proven old. They need something else to go on and I really have a hard time trying to figure out what that might be.

They (the Conservatives) needed to raise their numbers by appealing to the centre at the outset of their rule. They didn’t do that and have thus labelled themselves in a niche. Harper could still win another minority, but he will have failed to deliver the ultimate prize of a majority and will be pushed to leave.

Of all the leaders, the one with the best odd to survive the next election has to be Dion.

I'd say he has the worst odds of surviving the next election if he loses. He has a one track mind and a large section of his party (my party) isn't happy with him. He was a mistake, one that I supported. If the Liberals had a real leader, they would be returned to government in the next election. As it is, I hope my party is shown that they made the wrong decision and I pray that Stephane Dion is never given the chance to implement his Carbon tax. It will cause even more damage to the Liberal brand.

[Wild Bill]

It's interesting that the overall stats about crime decreasing are highlighted in the media but the increase in violent and youth crime is mentioned not nearly so often. To some poor family living around Jane and Finch in Toronto I really don't think they care that the incidence of embezzling is down nationally. They're too worried about their kids having to dodge bullets on the street and in their schools.

Oh well, I'm sure that crime will decrease dramatically very soon. The Toronto mayor is moving to ban guns and close all the gun club shooting ranges. "Gangsta" crime and deaths should immediately evaporate.

[capricorn]

So, capricorn, as one of the herd, what do you attribute the lessening crime rate to? Harper?

No. According to Stats Can, the crime rate has been dropping steadily since 1991 and I'm curious to know why this is so. If it is true that the main reason is that crime is going unreported this is a serious problem and is something that should be addressed.

The other question is how the reduction in the crime rate could impact the voters.

Do you have any thoughts on this?

[White Doors]

I don’t believe that the Conservatives’ “tough on crime” agenda won them any converts at the last poll. The latest crime figures tell me that the issue is unlikely to win them any converts at the next.

I’d hate to be a conservative strategist right now. So much of the ideologically driven agenda is becoming more out of step with the times. They have their base (26-28%) and some swing (6-10%) to play with. But that won’t give them a majority at the next contest unless something earth-shattering happens in their favour. An Obama win in November would only serve to make matters worse.

Disagreed, an Obama win could only be good for the Canadian conservatives.

Takes a weapon away from the liberals and NDP that they like to use to cater to the anti-America crowd.

[BubberMiley]

Disagreed, an Obama win could only be good for the Canadian conservatives.

Takes a weapon away from the liberals and NDP that they like to use to cater to the anti-America crowd.

Hmmm…you’d think if they were “anti-America,” they would be against whoever is in power in the U.S. so whether or not Obama wins wouldn’t matter.

If, however, they were just opposed to the policies of the current administration, like 80% of the American citizenry, your theory might work.

You wouldn’t be using the term “anti-American” as a substitute for “anti-Bush” would you? That would be a little sleazy, to say the least.

[Savant]

One of the sayings I like to use in situations like this is "perception is reality."

It doesn't matter if crime is acttually decreasing or not. What matters is the public's perception of crime, and whether that perception is good or bad.

Flying in the face of the article quote the original poster noted, there was a survey released by Angus Reid this past Monday which revelaled that 51% of Canadians believe there has been an increase in crime in the past 5 years. (ref) That's a full one out of every 2 Canadians that is not only NOT seeing a decrease, they are perceiving an increase.

Why the difference? Perhaps the media sensationalizes crime too much, and that leads people to believe there is more crime than there really is. Or perhaps people have just developed a lower tolerance for crime. Either way, with 51% of Canadians believing that crime is on the rise, a 'law and order agenda' will certainly cater to their concerns.

[jdobbin]

I don’t believe that the Conservatives’ “tough on crime” agenda won them any converts at the last poll. The latest crime figures tell me that the issue is unlikely to win them any converts at the next.

The PCs in Manitoba tried a campaign during the election on the crime issue. Some crime is up in Manitoba but voters were turned off with the scare tactics of the ad which showed a woman about to be attacked in a parking garage.

The Federal Tories have to be careful that they don't resort to similar scare tactics. Most of the violent crime is done between people who know each other and who engage in high risk behaviour.

[capricorn]

It doesn't matter if crime is acttually decreasing or not. What matters is the public's perception of crime, and whether that perception is good or bad.

Another factor of public perception is that a lot of people don't look beyond the headlines. Headlines like "national crime rate drops" or "our streets are safer" register with those people in different ways.

Either way, with 51% of Canadians believing that crime is on the rise, a 'law and order agenda' will certainly cater to their concerns.

IMO law and order on a list of priorities is bound to appeal to a large segment of the electorate, regardless of crime statistics. Even though the overall crime rate goes down, how much crime is acceptable or tolerable? I would think the answer for many individuals rests with how much they know about the issue, their personal experiences and/or how safe they feel in their community.

I would think Harper would opt to push ahead with his law and order platform, and skip over forecasts similar to Harris-Decima's. Anything less than he has promised so far in this regard could harm his leadership numbers.

[capricorn]

Most of the violent crime is done between people who know each other and who engage in high risk behaviour.

Maybe so, but those crimes still occur next door or across the street from somebody. "Close to home" doesn't just mean being a victim.

[jdobbin]

Maybe so, but those crimes still occur next door or across the street from somebody. "Close to home" doesn't just mean being a victim.

And the Tories can try a fear campaign like the PCs in Manitoba tried. If it was going to work anywhere, it was going to be in Manitoba but people were turned off by the scared woman in the parking lot ad.

[eyeball]

One of the sayings I like to use in situations like this is "perception is reality."

It doesn't matter if crime is acttually decreasing or not. What matters is the public's perception of crime, and whether that perception is good or bad.

This is why we need a Charter of Rights and Freedoms and a Supreme Court. Without these, I expect crime really would increase.

[Argus]

The Conservatives have not implemented their full law and order agenda. The article raises an interesting question. On the other side of the coin, could some voters credit the Conservative get tough on crime message for reduction in crime? What about women and seniors, two demographic groups who appear to be very concerned about crime? If women's fears about crime are lessened, perhaps they would also shed some of their fears about Harper.

According to the article, there was a very slight decrease in murders. The statistical drop was led by a fall in counterfeiting and theft under $5000 - which, btw, is the crime most likely to not be reported to police if people feel they're wasting their time.

That's not going to reassure people who are afraid to send their kids to school.

I bring your attention to the following quote from your article Serious assaults, including those with a weapon, basically stayed unchanged in 2007 after rising in each of the previous seven years.

So serious assaults have been rising for seven years, and this past year they remained unchanged, and you figure everyone is now going to stop worrying about crime? Have I got that right?

And it isn't merely the crime rate that bothers people, it is the lack of justice and punishment handed out by our courts, and lax parole laws. I draw your attention to today's paper, only because I just read it, wherein a sex offender who blackmailed young girls into doing sex vidoes for him was paroled after serving 1 year of his 8 year sentence. This is not atypical.

[Wild Bill]

According to the article, there was a very slight decrease in murders. The statistical drop was led by a fall in counterfeiting and theft under $5000 - which, btw, is the crime most likely to not be reported to police if people feel they're wasting their time.

That's not going to reassure people who are afraid to send their kids to school.

I bring your attention to the following quote from your article Serious assaults, including those with a weapon, basically stayed unchanged in 2007 after rising in each of the previous seven years.

So serious assaults have been rising for seven years, and this past year they remained unchanged, and you figure everyone is now going to stop worrying about crime? Have I got that right?

And it isn't merely the crime rate that bothers people, it is the lack of justice and punishment handed out by our courts, and lax parole laws. I draw your attention to today's paper, only because I just read it, wherein a sex offender who blackmailed young girls into doing sex vidoes for him was paroled after serving 1 year of his 8 year sentence. This is not atypical.

You've put you're finger on it! This is why we have the phrase "Lies, damned lies and statistics!"

It's NOT just perception! It's actual deception! Politicians and "the system" are embarrassed by attacks that things aren't working as well as they claim. People have noted increases in the amount of crime THAT MATTERS MOST TO THEM! As Argus cites, people fear crime like assault with a deadly weapon, NOT embezzling, as I mentioned!

So when stats are released spokespeople pick and choose which ones to mention and highlight. The impression is given that things are working just tickety-boo. No need to address ridiculously light sentencing, no need to address the dangers of the "Projects" in areas of Toronto.

Just take comfort in the fact that "crime is down".

It's like saying that a part of a tropical jungle now has far fewer deaths by snakebite, after a new government snake eradication program, while the poisonous insect population may have increased tenfold.

A lawyer would say that it is not a lie but a common man would consider it a deception.

[DrGreenthumb]

And the Tories can try a fear campaign like the PCs in Manitoba tried. If it was going to work anywhere, it was going to be in Manitoba but people were turned off by the scared woman in the parking lot ad.

I hope they DO try. In fact I hope they try running some ads where super-hero Harper flies around burning down the pot fields with his fire-vision and then comes down the chimney to smash all the evil-doers bongs. He could then use his super strength to caryy all the bad guys (blacks and teenagers) to the new privately owned super prisons. For the ad he could drop all the kids(oops i mean criminals) into one side of the jail and they could pop out the other side 10 years older and clean as a whistle!

It would be great because we could tape the ads and watch them for laughs like we do with old propaganda films like reefer madness.

[capricorn]

So serious assaults have been rising for seven years, and this past year they remained unchanged, and you figure everyone is now going to stop worrying about crime? Have I got that right?

Where did I said everyone is going to stop worrying about crime. My feeling is that regardless of what the stats say, most people see crime fighting as an ongoing necessity. That is why I think Harper should not deviate from his law and order agenda.

And it isn't merely the crime rate that bothers people, it is the lack of justice and punishment handed out by our courts, and lax parole laws. I draw your attention to today's paper, only because I just read it, wherein a sex offender who blackmailed young girls into doing sex vidoes for him was paroled after serving 1 year of his 8 year sentence. This is not atypical.

Yes I had read about that case. There is something seriously wrong with our parole system.

In a decision released Friday, the board says Innes demonstrates "insight and understanding" about the distorted thinking that led to his crimes.

"While you were offending you were leading a double life and found your Internet involvement both intoxicating and addictive," the board wrote. "While you have yet to deal with the addictive aspect of your criminal behaviour, your double life has been exposed."

http://www.canada.com/topics/news/national...8b-143a9b540f2f

What I take from that is that the perp was paroled early because his crimes have been uncovered. What sick reasoning.

[Visionseeker]

Disagreed, an Obama win could only be good for the Canadian conservatives.

Takes a weapon away from the liberals and NDP that they like to use to cater to the anti-America crowd.

Well, I guess we'll be on different sides of the argument here. I tend to hold that Canada doesn't have a serious anti-American problem, just an anti-Republican problem. With the demise of the Bush administration, a new sense of optimism regarding US relations will emerge from Canada's left. That optimism will not benefit the Conservatives, but rather the Liberals and maybe even the NDP (though I wouldn't bet on the latter).

[Visionseeker]

I'd say he has the worst odds of surviving the next election if he loses. He has a one track mind and a large section of his party (my party) isn't happy with him. He was a mistake, one that I supported. If the Liberals had a real leader, they would be returned to government in the next election. As it is, I hope my party is shown that they made the wrong decision and I pray that Stephane Dion is never given the chance to implement his Carbon tax. It will cause even more damage to the Liberal brand.

Campaigning on implementing taxes is rarely a wise move. Dion is certainly taking a risk here. But sometimes risk nets rewards. Dion might be on to something here that Canadians are warm to.

[Visionseeker]

The Federal Tories have to be careful that they don't resort to similar scare tactics. Most of the violent crime is done between people who know each other and who engage in high risk behaviour.

Indeed. If you gave me control over a campaign's advertisements, I'd turn them all into public education spots.