RCMP raids Tory party headquarters

[Who's Doing What?]

Oh come on. Argus is clearly being a bit of a drama queen. We all have our moments.

Only some people's "moments" never seem to end.

[sharkman]

SC consistently have the CPC ahead in thew 10 point range it seems. I wouldn't trust their polling either, how is it that they seem to always show significant CPC leads when all the other pollsters show see sawing leads within the margin of error?

And lets not start calling each other Party hacks. thats a two way street as well.

Come, come Shakey. You conveniently ignore the polls that consistently put the Liberals in the highest range. The point is, dobbin doesn't question those polls, and neither do you by the looks of it. SC do not consistently have the CPC ahead in the 10 point range either. I don't know where you are getting your information.

[jdobbin]

Are you referring to how when the polls show the two parties neck and neck and, even though the Tories have their votes concentrated largely in Alberta, Dobbin's "analysis" is that the Tories would probably pull off another minority? He's untrustworthy because he's limiting expectations for the Liberals so they could appear to have momentum when we find out they're on track to win more seats in an election?

I've been predicting the Tories would win another minority since the election. It is the breathless Tories who keep saying that a majority is within sight or that somehow 36% of the vote will somehow secure a majority. So far I have not seen a pollster yet who thought a Conservative majority was possible under 40%.

The Tories have only reached 40% of the vote maybe half a dozen times since 2006 and only stayed there for one poll or two while at the same time getting mixed messages from other polls taken at the same time.

I think all pollsters have been saying the vote is see sawing back and forth but when all are analyzed, it isn't much different than when the election was called.

At the moment, the Liberals are 3 points up but in the great scheme of things, it is a statistical tie. If you throw in a few of the other polls, the Tories are in the lead but are stuck where they usually are just as the Liberals are.

Only angry right wingers would somehow think I have been predicting a Liberal win in these forums.

[sharkman]

Whether you are an active member or not, you are the most hard core Liberal supporter I have ever seen, and I've been on plenty of forums. You might as well sign up again, my friend, you're giving it for free.

Whenever I see you analyze polls, I have to laugh. Every single time a poll comes out with increased support for the Tories, you call it into question using all manner of excuses why it's skewed in some way. And every single time a poll comes out with more support for the Liberals, you breathlessly report every single word like the Almighty just handed it to you.

This makes your analysis of polls untrustworthy no matter how well versed you are in them.

dobbin, I haven't seen any poster accuse you of predicting a Liberal win and that is a strawman argument anyway. You have a strong Liberal bias in your poll analysis and it makes sense when one understands where you are coming from.

[jdobbin]

SC consistently have the CPC ahead in thew 10 point range it seems. I wouldn't trust their polling either, how is it that they seem to always show significant CPC leads when all the other pollsters show see sawing leads within the margin of error?

I have said that an 11 point lead or 40% put the Tories in majority territory. I have said that Strategic Counsel polls still show minority territory because of the high concentration of the popular support in Alberta. Other pollsters like Ipsos have also commented on that.

In March, the Decima and sometimes Ipsos polls came out on the same day.

Here is what I said on March 18.

http://www.mapleleafweb.com/forums//index....st&p=299811

I don't think it means anything in particular other than it looks like a repeat minority government. Given incumbency, the edge goes to the Tories.

Anytime the Tories have been over 40%, I have said they are in majority territory. The problem is that there have been very times they have been at 40% and they didn't stay there long. Ditto with 11% over the Liberals. Moreover, other polls out the same days, give a rather dramatic different read of things.

Taken all together, the polls usually indicate no change from the election.

I am partisan for the Liberals but those angry right wingers who have been predicting a majority at 36% are saying something that every pollster in the country says is highly unlikely. Talk about poor analysis of the polls.

Edited April 19, 2008 by jdobbin

[August1991]

Any why did the RCMP brass want to make sure that Goodale's name was listed in the investigation? What did they care about at the time?

Uh, because he was Minister of Finance at the time and because the decision to change income trust policy was a closely held secret?

Dobbin, you seem to think that the RCMP "brought down" the Liberal government. You mentionned above that polls moved against the Liberals after this investigation was announced during the campaign in December 2005.

Many factors lead to the defeat of Paul Martin and the election of Stephen Harper.

----

My point is that you cannot compare the RCMP investigation of the Liberals and a budget leak with having 2 RCMP officers accompany Elections Canada officials obtaining documents from Conservative headquarters. In short, you can't compare the integrity of Stephen Harper with the integrity of various politicians associated with the Liberal Party.

Harper and Elections Canada are arguing over a silly rule that shouldn't exist in the first place. Meanwhile, back at the ranch:

Benoît Corbeil, the former head of the Quebec wing of the federal Liberal Party and a central figure in the sponsorship scandal, faces three criminal charges including one alleging he used his influence to push through the sale of federal land to a private company.

Montreal Gazette

David Frum had a very good piece on this so-called "RCMP raid" that reflects exactly my view. Ottawa bureaucracy has become a law unto itself. The various organizations from the RCMP through to Human Rights Commission believe that they have the power to decide. Well, they don't.

Yesterday, Gerry Nicholls accused Elections Canada of being a power-crazed bureaucracy motivated by petty vindictiveness.

That’s the optimistic scenario! Power-crazed bureaucrats can be restrained or replaced.

The more frightening possibility raised by this week’s RCMP “visit” to Conservative party headquarters is that the Canadian bureaucracy has once again revealed a deep, sustained and highly ideological hostility to ordinary rights of free speech.

National Post

[jdobbin]

Uh, because he was Minister of Finance at the time and because the decision to change income trust policy was a closely held secret?

Uh, because standard practice even if it was not written down was to not confirm or deny an investigation. The Commissioner specifically added Goodale's name as being the subject of a criminal investigation when the RCMP had no evidence of the sort and when his own officers left the name off the letter.

It was a political decision to add Goodale's name rather than a decision based on solid suspicion. In short, the Complaints Commissioner could not find out why Goodale's name was added because there was nothing in police records to indicate why. Lastly, no senior retired RCMP officer had the decency to respond why the Commissioner decided to send the letter or name Goodale in the first place.

Dobbin, you seem to think that the RCMP " brought down" the Liberal government. You mentionned above that polls moved against the Liberals after this investigation was announced during the campaign in December 2005.

Nik Nanos said the biggest factor in the Liberals precipitous 10 point fall was the announcement of the RCMP investigation.

Many factors lead to the defeat of Paul Martin and the election of Stephen Harper.

True, but for the right wing to say that the investigation didn't have a major impact is a falsehood.

[Argus]

Are you referring to how when the polls show the two parties neck and neck and, even though the Tories have their votes concentrated largely in Alberta,

Alberta has that many seats that they won office even though their votes are concentrated largely there? How did that happen!?

And one could say Liberal votes are concentrated largely among immigrants - while real Canadians vote Tory.

[Argus]

Oh come on. Argus is clearly being a bit of a drama queen. We all have our moments.

No. I found the barely covered scandal around the Business Development Bank to be the worst in recent Canadian history, with worse implications for this country than anything else I have ever heard coming from any government in the last thirty years.

It was a shakedown of the public purse combined with using the federal police to intimidate and try to imprison a political critic.

If a right wing government had done it we'd have had all those braying asses here from the Left screaming about Nazism and Facism, and old jdbobbin, instead of going "tut-tut, these little things happen" would be pulling his hair out and demanding UN intervention.

[BubberMiley]

If a right wing government had done it we'd have had all those braying asses here from the Left screaming about Nazism and Facism, and old jdbobbin, instead of going "tut-tut, these little things happen" would be pulling his hair out and demanding UN intervention.

And you would be blaming the opposition, the civil service, and the media.

[jdobbin]

If a right wing government had done it we'd have had all those braying asses here from the Left screaming about Nazism and Facism, and old jdbobbin, instead of going "tut-tut, these little things happen" would be pulling his hair out and demanding UN intervention.

I haven't called Harper's government anything of the sort. Nor have I downplayed sponsorship in any way. I've said Harper should call a public inquiry if he believes there is more there. However, he should be aware that these things often whip around and hit you square in the forehead. Witness what happened when Harper thought he had a scandal on polling. Nothing was found but he found his own party was tarred for ordering polling in a manner than blew past the Liberals.

[Shakeyhands]

And one could say Liberal votes are concentrated largely among immigrants - while real Canadians vote Tory.

Wow.... this gets my vote for most insipid comment of the month.

[BubberMiley]

Wow.... this gets my vote for most insipid comment of the month.

Yeah, and it's not even true. Aboriginals vote Liberal or NDP almost exclusively.

[Who's Doing What?]

And one could say Liberal votes are concentrated largely among immigrants - while real Canadians vote Tory.

A new low in posting, even for you.

[jdobbin]

Tories had secret meetings today with select reporters on the Elections Canada raid. Oops! I guess it was secret but not anymore.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...?hub=TopStories

Conservatives held secret meetings with select reporters Sunday to reveal details about why Elections Canada officers raided their Ottawa headquarters -- and to give their side of the story before court documents are released this week.

The party showed CTV News the court application for a search warrant, which confirmed that Elections Canada officials and RCMP were looking for evidence of an "alleged scheme" by Tories to spend more than allowed on election advertising.

The document alleges the Conservatives violated the Elections Act "by incurring election expenses that exceeded the election expense spending limit" by $1.1 million.

It also alleges that 67 Tory candidates "improperly" sought taxpayer-funded rebates on expenses they did not incur.

An Ontario judge ordered the application to be unsealed last Friday, but court officials had said they would be unable to make the document public until Monday at the earliest.

Conservatives obtained their own copy of the application and contacted a limited number of journalists to discuss the search warrant Sunday.

It looks like they tried to share the story with their chosen columnists.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/capress/080420/...ories_rcmp_raid

Senior Conservative officials, including campaign director Doug Finley, chief media spokesman Ryan Sparrow and party lawyer Paul Lepsoe held briefings Sunday for hand-picked journalists in a downtown hotel room in an effort to shape the emerging story ahead of the warrant's release.

When other reporters learned of the briefing, party officials switched the encounter from the Lord Elgin hotel two blocks west to the Sheraton.

That effort proved fruitless. The uninvited reporters quickly learned of the new location and gathered in the hallway outside the meeting room. Sparrow opened and quickly closed the door on prying journalists.

"This is a private meeting," he repeatedly told the CBC's Keith Boag.

Those who managed to get inside the door were handed a sheaf of documents and a CD-ROM containing the warrant and affidavit material.

Sources say the accompanying spin session touched on most of the same points the party has been making since the raid.

But none of the officials would repeat their lines in public when they emerged from the hotel room to be greeted by reporters who weren't on their guest list.

Instead they scurried for a nearby exit and beat a hasty retreat down the fire stairs.

Scurried down the stairs?

I think they should name the columnists who had the secret meetings. Had it been meetings with the Liberal party, the Tories would be bellowing from the highest hill.

Edit: Tonda McCharles from the Toronto Star and Mike Duffy from CTV were invited. Canwest, CP, Macleans, Globe and Mail and CBC were not invited.

I guess we'll have to see if anyone else was invited to the meetings.

Edited April 21, 2008 by jdobbin

[Shakeyhands]

surely someone from the National Post was there..... Kinda surprised that they didn't have the Macleans folks in.

[jazzer]

I don't believe you.

General polls are of no importance and you know that as a former candidate.

Tell that to Harper. While on one had he says he doesn't govern by polls, he using the info to decide when to call an election. Give me a break.

[jdobbin]

surely someone from the National Post was there..... Kinda surprised that they didn't have the Macleans folks in.

I wonder if there were other meetings we don't know about over the day. Mike Duffy looked liked kind of sheepish after being flagged in the hallways.

[sharkman]

Tories had secret meetings today with select reporters on the Elections Canada raid. Oops! I guess it was secret but not anymore.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...?hub=TopStories

It looks like they tried to share the story with their chosen columnists.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/capress/080420/...ories_rcmp_raid

Scurried down the stairs?

I think they should name the columnists who had the secret meetings. Had it been meetings with the Liberal party, the Tories would be bellowing from the highest hill.

Edit: Tonda McCharles from the Toronto Star and Mike Duffy from CTV were invited. Canwest, CP, Macleans, Globe and Mail and CBC were not invited.

I guess we'll have to see if anyone else was invited to the meetings.

So this is, what, wrong? A political party wants to get its story out so meets with members of the press it wants to? You've got to be kidding, right?

This happens all the time. Sometimes the politician/celebrity/CEO will pick just one member of the press, and this is called an INTERVIEW.

Still other times, the politician will just issue what's called a PRESS RELEASE. The Liberals and NDP have occasionally done varieties of these things when they needed to. It's a way of getting your side of a story out there.

Dobbin, let us know when you get something new.

[Argus]

Tories had secret meetings today with select reporters on the Elections Canada raid. Oops! I guess it was secret but not anymore.

Secret meetings? With the media? You mean they offered semi-exclusives to media sources which they thought would give them a fair shake in their reporting? Shocking! Why, I don't think that's ever happened before!

There should be a royal commission to look into this!

Headed, of course, by a very well-paid Liberal party bagman.

[Argus]

A new low in posting, even for you.

It's the elephant in the room the Left squeals in terror at even acknowledging, much less discussing.

[Argus]

And you would be blaming the opposition, the civil service, and the media.

Uhm, no, I'd be demanding the heads of those responsible. Unlike the fanatics of the Liberal party, who cling to them regardless of how brutally corrupt their party is, I and others abandoned the PC party when it strayed too far from our ideals.

Edited April 21, 2008 by Argus

[Argus]

Wow.... this gets my vote for most insipid comment of the month.

Clearly, you decided to use the word "insipid" because it sounded clever. Equally clearly, you don't know what the word means.

[Argus]

I wonder if there were other meetings we don't know about over the day. Mike Duffy looked liked kind of sheepish after being flagged in the hallways.

The Tories are meeting with the media! Damn them! It's a conspiracy!

[Wilber]

Tories had secret meetings today with select reporters on the Elections Canada raid. Oops! I guess it was secret but not anymore.

How can one have a secret meeting with the media unless the media keeps it a secret?