Canadian Political Polls

[jdobbin]

Where the liberals in a minority at the time?

We have only seen a minority CPC gov. it will/could be interesting to see what a majority cpc gov. would look like.

I'm sorry. If the Tories can't control their spending with a minority as they promised in every budget since elected, they can't be expected to rally big support for their handling of financing in a majority. The excuses are just too big.

As far as the rest of the commentary, it is just parroting Jason Kenney. The Tory plan will cost more.

[normanchateau]

Where the liberals in a minority at the time?

We have only seen a minority CPC gov. it will/could be interesting to see what a majority cpc gov. would look like.

Are you suggesting that how CPC has governed with a minority does not predict how they will govern as a majority? And if past behaviour does not predict future behaviour, what does?

[M.Dancer]

Are you suggesting that how CPC has governed with a minority does not predict how they will govern as a majority? And if past behaviour does not predict future behaviour, what does?

I must say that a prudent party will govern much more tactfully in a minority tha n with a majority. I expect they would be bolder in their plans and perhaps even approach Liberal levels of smugness ....but not inntheir first majority mandate.

[jdobbin]

If we were closer to the election, this poll would cost Harper some votes. Canadians were dissatisfied with some of the previous majority governments and is a big reason they seem to prefer minorities. The advantage for Harper is that Canadians are not yet fully engaged in an election and their attention is elsewhere, i.e. back to school, just back from holiday etc.

Actually, I am hoping the next poll shows a drop in support for the Conservatives. Canadians would then be less fearful of voting Conservative.

They'll be starting to pay attention now. Just came from a meeting of over a thousand people who seemed very engaged.

Hard to say where things are exactly with three or four polls out almost at the same time.

[Shakeyhands]

Carbon TAX AKA the green shaft

Does refering to the Liberals policy platform as the "green shaft" add anything to the argument or are you just trolling? I find it pretty immature myself.

[Guest American Woman]

Your polls show a win for conservative government in the October election, but don't your polls often show the conservatives ahead and then the liberals end up winning a majority?

[capricorn]

Your polls show a win for conservative government in the October election, but don't your polls often show the conservatives ahead and then the liberals end up winning a majority?

I don't know about that particular scenario AW. I would have to research it. Perhaps other posters know offhand. I can tell you that going into the January 2006 election, the Liberals were ahead in the polls but the Conservatives won a minority government. That's why I take polls with a grain of salt. You just never know.

[jdobbin]

Your polls show a win for conservative government in the October election, but don't your polls often show the conservatives ahead and then the liberals end up winning a majority?

The polls this past week have shown the Liberals and Tories tied or the Tories ahead.

Are you asking if there has been an occasion in recent years where the Conservatives won the popular support and lost the election?

[jdobbin]

I don't know about that particular scenario AW. I would have to research it. Perhaps other posters know offhand. I can tell you that going into the January 2006 election, the Liberals were ahead in the polls but the Conservatives won a minority government. That's why I take polls with a grain of salt. You just never know.

The Liberals were ahead until the RCMP raid dropped them down 10 points on average in most polls.

[Guest American Woman]

The polls this past week have shown the Liberals and Tories tied or the Tories ahead.

Are you asking if there has been an occasion in recent years where the Conservatives won the popular support and lost the election?

I try to keep things straight with your government but I don't always succeed. Here's the way I think it is in Canada now, so correct me if I'm wrong. Even though you have a conservative PM, there's liberal majority government, isn't there? Isn't that why Harper wants the October election-- to get a conservative majority government?

So I'm asking if the polls often show the conservatives ahead but then come election time, the liberals win?

[jdobbin]

I try to keep things straight with your government but I don't always succeed. Here's the way I think it is in Canada now, so correct me if I'm wrong. Even though you have a conservative PM, there's liberal majority government, isn't there? Isn't that why Harper wants the October election-- to get a conservative majority government?

The Tories won the popular vote and captured the most seats. Having said that, the popular vote was 36% and the seats numbered 124. That's is a minority in a 308 seat Parliament. It meant that the government could fall on confidence because they didn't have the majority of the seats.

So I'm asking if the polls often show the conservatives ahead but then come election time, the liberals win?

Whoever captures the most seats in the first past the post system wins. In other words, a lot of Tory support is concentrated in seats they have already won. In Alberta they have every seat. Even if they get 100% of the vote there, it won't win them an election.

Most pollsters say the Tories need 40% of support spread across the country to win a majority.

[M.Dancer]

I try to keep things straight with your government but I don't always succeed. Here's the way I think it is in Canada now, so correct me if I'm wrong. Even though you have a conservative PM, there's liberal majority government, .......

The liberals are only the official opposition . The gov't is conservative.

[capricorn]

I try to keep things straight with your government but I don't always succeed. Here's the way I think it is in Canada now, so correct me if I'm wrong. Even though you have a conservative PM, there's liberal majority government, isn't there? Isn't that why Harper wants the October election-- to get a conservative majority government?

AW, for a quick overview to our system, have a look at the government organization chart in this link.

http://canadaonline.about.com/gi/dynamic/o...utions_01-e.asp

If you look at the House of Commons section, you'll see it is made up of all the members elected across the country. As was mentioned, the party that wins most seats (elects most members) forms the government. The Opposition sits in the House of Commons and opposes the Government on issues it disagrees with. If the Conservatives lose the October election to the Liberals, they will sit in Opposition and the Liberals will form the government.

[Smallc]

AW, for a quick overview to our system, have a look at the government organization chart in this link.

http://canadaonline.about.com/gi/dynamic/o...utions_01-e.asp

If you look at the House of Commons section, you'll see it is made up of all the members elected across the country. As was mentioned, the party that wins most seats (elects most members) forms the government. The Opposition sits in the House of Commons and opposes the Government on issues it disagrees with. If the Conservatives lose the October election to the Liberals, they will sit in Opposition and the Liberals will form the government.

Well, technically, as long as they still hold 80 seats, they can try to govern with less than the opposition, but I don't think it would last, and I don't think Canadians would take kindly to it.

[normanchateau]

I must say that a prudent party will govern much more tactfully in a minority tha n with a majority.

So six months of mandatory jail time for one marijuana plant is prudent and tactful?

[M.Dancer]

So six months of mandatory jail time for one marijuana plant is prudent and tactful?

Can you find one case of that happening with that judgement?

[normanchateau]

Can you find one case of that happening with that judgement?

Of course not. The mandatory jail time for marijuana legislation that Harper introduced is now stalled in committee, specifically the Commons Justice Committee chaired by CPC MP Art Hangar. So why is it stalled. Here's the story:

"The outline of what the government will evaluate when deciding whether to pull the plug was signalled by Government House leader Peter Van Loan in an interview with Canwest News Service. He suggested the government is fed up with having to "push Parliament to the brink" of defeating the government to secure passage of legislation.

Van Loan singled out specific outstanding legislation he believes the government received a mandate to enact and which he alleges the opposition has been purposely obstructing and delaying. Among the legislation are three crime bills.

Dion said the three crime bills are stalled in the Commons justice committee because the Conservative committee chair, Art Hanger, repeatedly shuts down the meetings when opposition MPs seek a vote to hold hearings on an alleged attempt to buy a vote from the late Chuck Cadman, an Independent MP, in 2005."

http://www.dose.ca/news/story.html?id=8bea...b6-2c79c3632f9a

No wonder Harper wants an election before the Commons Justice Committee meets again. Every time they meet, Hangar cancels the meeting. So Harper's six months in jail for one marijuana plant legislation is stalled because he wants the media and the Canadian public to forget about the Cadman allegations.

[Guest American Woman]

jdobbin and capricorn,

Thank you both for answering my question-- I do think I understand it better now. I'm going to have to reread the link in order to retain the information because just when I think I get it, I seem to question something again. But until my next question arises ( ), I really appreciate the information.

It'll be interesting to see how the election turns out next month. It looks to me as if Canada has been heading in a more conservative direction lately.

[jdobbin]

It'll be interesting to see how the election turns out next month. It looks to me as if Canada has been heading in a more conservative direction lately.

Most the polls seem to indicate a repeat of the last election. I guess time will tell. If it is another minority for Harper or for Dion, we still face the problem of another snap election.

[Smallc]

Most the polls seem to indicate a repeat of the last election. I guess time will tell. If it is another minority for Harper or for Dion, we still face the problem of another snap election.

New CBC poll. Liberals 28, Conservatives 38, can't seem to find it yet.

[Keepitsimple]

New CBC poll. Liberals 28, Conservatives 38, can't seem to find it yet.

Here's a link. Bad, bad, bad news for Liberals. Sample size was 2500 - better than all the other snapshots.

Link to CBC/Environics Poll: http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2008/09/04/f-full-poll.html

Edited September 4, 2008 by Keepitsimple

[jdobbin]

Here's a link. Bad, bad, bad news for Liberals. Sample size was 2500 - better than all the other snapshots.

Link to CBC/Environics Poll: http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2008/09/04/f-full-poll.html

Although still in minority territory, I am now predicting that based on the trend that the Tories will win a massive majority.

[Ontario Loyalist]

New CBC poll. Liberals 28, Conservatives 38, can't seem to find it yet.

This is ridiculous. Canadians are actually buying this nonsense that Steve has cooked up? Willing to support a PM who breaks the law?

[Chuck U. Farlie]

This is ridiculous. Canadians are actually buying this nonsense that Steve has cooked up? Willing to support a PM who breaks the law?

From what I am reading in the news, listening to on talk radio, and from this site, I am becoming more and more likely to vote conservative - I just tend to agree with more of what they are saying far more than the liberals.

Besides... I could never vote to elect Dion... did he relinquish is French citizenship yet???

[Bryan]

This is ridiculous. Canadians are actually buying this nonsense that Steve has cooked up? Willing to support a PM who breaks the law?

All parties have problems. The serious problem with politics is no matter how you slice it, you have to vote for the least bad choice, because there never will be a good one from anyone's perspective. In order to be capable of getting enough votes to form a government, you cannot stick to any one set of principles. Compromises have to be made, and some of those compromises are invariably going to be seen as unethical to somebody.

Has Harper lived up to the promise of what new Conservativism was supposed to be? Not even close. There are a lot of things that were the reasons I supported the movement that have been left by the wayside. The thing is, despite all of his problems, he's STILL been the best Prime Minister this country has had in my lifetime. He's not a great choice, but compared to the other options, he's spectacular.