Canadian Political Polls

Michael Bluth · May 4, 2008

Albertans will go conservative of varying degrees regardless of whether the policies are conservative or not (i.e. Flaherty's more liberal than Liberal spending).

Flaherty's spending is only one side of the coin and completely ignores his very aggressive tax cuts.

Had the spending not been coupled with the tax cuts the Conservatives would have been in trouble out here.

But the Liberals swinging to the left still provides the small c-conservatives with only one option.

Are Alberta voters to blame if the only other credible option to the Conservatives completely ignore their views?

jdobbin · May 6, 2008

Ontarians blame Ottawa for their descent toward have-not status: Decima poll.

http://canadianpress.google.com/article/AL...Op_BXGrbQjs2m9A

The Conservative government of Stephen Harper will pay a stiff price in a future election if Ontario's economic struggles endure and plunge the province into have-not status, a new poll suggests.
The Canadian Press-Harris/Decima poll conducted in the first week of May shows that while Ontarians lay the blame for the poor economy on the door steps of both the federal and provincial governments, when push comes to shove, more choose Ottawa as the bigger culprit.

The survey found that 62 per cent of Ontarians believe the Harper government is not doing enough to help the province from falling into have-not status, whereas only 50 per cent say the same thing about Premier Dalton McGuinty.

Pollster Bruce Anderson of Harris/Decima said the high number of Ontarians dissatisfied with the Harper government's record on the economy is a wake-up call for the Conservatives because they would need to do well in Ontario to have a chance at forming a majority government.

When Danny Williams tells Harper to stop picking on Ontario, you gotta think that it isn't a winning issue for the Tories.

Edited May 6, 2008 by jdobbin

Keepitsimple · May 6, 2008

Ontarians blame Ottawa for their descent toward have-not status: Decima poll.
When Danny Williams tells Harper to stop picking on Ontario, you gotta think that it isn't a winning issue for the Tories.

Can't find the article - do you have a link?

jdobbin · May 6, 2008

Can't find the article - do you have a link?

Sorry. I thought I had included it.

I have inserted it in the post now.

It is here:

http://canadianpress.google.com/article/AL...Op_BXGrbQjs2m9A

jdobbin · May 7, 2008

Latest Decima poll on support for the carbon tax.

http://www.thestar.com/News/Canada/article/422643

A new poll suggests most Canadians support the idea of a carbon tax – but an overwhelming majority favour the broader principle of using the tax system to punish or reward environmental behaviour.
The findings of The Canadian Press Harris-Decima survey suggest the politically risky move of putting a price on carbon holds a potential payoff.

The federal Liberals are weighing a plank in their platform that would put a price on pollution – and Environment Minister John Baird ridiculed them today for considering what he characterizes as a tax grab.

But when asked whether they supported the idea of a carbon tax on businesses and people based on the carbon emissions they generate, 61 per cent of poll respondents said yes and 32 per cent said no.

Respondents in every province and age category expressed support for the idea, including oil-rich Alberta where 65 per cent of those surveyed backed the notion.

Support levels grew significantly – to as high as 80 per cent – when respondents were asked a variety of questions about tailoring the tax system to broader environmental causes.

It looks like Dion may have a winning plank in the coming election. It is unlikely Harper will even discuss the matter.

Edited May 8, 2008 by jdobbin

Keepitsimple · May 8, 2008

Tax schmax. With no appreciable increase in annual temperatures since 1998, it appears Mother Nature has joined the ranks of the sceptics. If we don't have a pretty hot summer, a lot of poop will hit the fan. The arctic ice, which has fully recovered to previous areas of coverage needs a moderate summer to thicken and maintain its coverage. If the arctic indeed fully recovers, temperatures haven't increased, and sea levels haven't risen, the reporting will have to show more balance. The predictions of Gore and the IPCC are just not holding up to the light of day - observational evidence. It makes sense to encourage conservation....but not in the paranoid context of world catastrophe.

Edited May 8, 2008 by Keepitsimple

M.Dancer · May 8, 2008

Most people wil support a tax on someone else. It's when the chickens comes home to roost that the mood changes. It would be easy to spin this against Dion. After all Dion wants to raise taxes and stunt growth during a recession...smart guy but hey, it isn't easy to make priorities.

jdobbin · May 8, 2008

Tax schmax. With no appreciable increase in annual temperatures since 1998, it appears Mother Nature has joined the ranks of the sceptics. If we don't have a pretty hot summer, a lot of poop will hit the fan. The arctic ice, which has fully recovered to previous areas of coverage needs a moderate summer to thicken and maintain its coverage. If the arctic indeed fully recovers, temperatures haven't increased, and sea levels haven't risen, the reporting will have to show more balance. The predictions of Gore and the IPCC are just not holding up to the light of day - observational evidence. It makes sense to encourage conservation....but not in the paranoid context of world catastrophe.

I won't get into the debate on global warming here. Suffice to say that the Tories are against taxing carbon and the Liberals are supporting it.

It will be up to the Tories to take a stand on global warming and deny it is happening. If they don't, the question will be what they are doing about it.

Michael Bluth · May 8, 2008

Most people wil support a tax on someone else. It's when the chickens comes home to roost that the mood changes. It would be easy to spin this against Dion. After all Dion wants to raise taxes and stunt growth during a recession...smart guy but hey, it isn't easy to make priorities.

Well said. I hear a lot of people griping about the potential for $1.50 a liter or $1.60 a liter gas at the pumps.

What would a carbon tax push the price up to? $2.00 a litre? $2.50 a liter?

Yeah, really winning strategy Stéphane. Get right on that. Please! Pretty please! :lol:

gc1765 · May 8, 2008

Well said. I hear a lot of people griping about the potential for $1.50 a liter or $1.60 a liter gas at the pumps.
What would a carbon tax push the price up to? $2.00 a litre? $2.50 a liter?

Yeah, really winning strategy Stéphane. Get right on that. Please! Pretty please!

What Dion *should* do is cut income/business taxes by the same amount, so the average person won't actually be paying any more money than what they were before. Not sure if that is his plan or not.

jdobbin · May 8, 2008

What Dion *should* do is cut income/business taxes by the same amount, so the average person won't actually be paying any more money than what they were before. Not sure if that is his plan or not.

Dion has talked about dropping the business tax dramatically. I'd love to see more personal income tax cuts as well.

The Tories always talk about how Dion will raise taxes but they are the ones who ran on raising income taxes in favour of lowering the GST.

Edited May 8, 2008 by jdobbin

Michael Bluth · May 8, 2008

What Dion *should* do is cut income/business taxes by the same amount, so the average person won't actually be paying any more money than what they were before. Not sure if that is his plan or not.

A revenue neutral set of tax cuts?

How will Dion pay for all his priorities? Oh that's right he hasn't made any because it isn't an easy thing to do! :lol:

gc1765 · May 8, 2008

What Dion *should* do is cut income/business taxes by the same amount, so the average person won't actually be paying any more money than what they were before. Not sure if that is his plan or not.

Looks like Dion has been reading my posts...

OTTAWA — Stéphane Dion is poised to unveil a carbon-tax scheme and attempt to neutralize any political damage by offering corresponding personal income tax cuts of between $10-billion and $13-billion to working Canadians, senior Liberal sources say.

link

Michael Bluth · May 8, 2008

Very interesting post for that gc1765. Thanks for that.

This is the first sign I have seen that we might have an early election. Doesn't really make sense to announce such a huge plank of a potential platform without the intention to go to the polls relatively soon. Even a fall election would be tactically unwise.

The carbon tax is the first real issue Dion could run on. Not necessarily a winner for him, but at least gives him a fighting chance.

Which side can sell their vision better?

ETA, So it appears that Dion is planning to 'sell' the plan over the summer? Wow, he just doesn't get it. Why not release the plan and force an election over the issue ASAP? A summer's worth of dissection and contrast by the Conservatives can only hurt the Liberals. Plus with record high gas prices expected this summer, perhaps not the best time to be touting a plan to raise gas taxes...

Edited May 8, 2008 by Michael Bluth

jbg · May 8, 2008

The carbon tax is the first real issue Dion could run on. Not necessarily a winner for him, but at least gives him a fighting chance.
***************

Plus with record high gas prices expected this summer, perhaps not the best time to be touting a plan to raise gas taxes...

Plus, people are always skeptical of these "revenue neutral" proposals. The government always seems to "win" on these. Remember GST v. MST?

Michael Bluth · May 8, 2008

Plus, people are always skeptical of these "revenue neutral" proposals. The government always seems to "win" on these. Remember GST v. MST?

Exactly. btw, what is the Liberal policy on the GST this week? Are the for eliminating it? No, they promised that and broke their promise. Are they against cutting it? So they say, but they haven't proposed to raise it now that the CPC has kept their promise to lower it.

So very confusing. I guess it isn't easy to make priorities. For Steph Dion that is. :lol:

jdobbin · May 9, 2008

Latest Decima poll on the leaders.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/sto...y/National/home

A new poll suggests most Canadians think Stéphane Dion is weak, uninspiring and unintelligible.
But, for all his flaws, they still find the Liberal leader somewhat more likable than Prime Minister Stephen Harper.

The Canadian Press-Harris/Decima survey explores why Mr. Dion's Liberals have not been able capitalize on lingering reservations about Harper's Conservatives.

It suggests that Mr. Dion's biggest problem is his inability to communicate; 58 per cent of respondents said he seems to have trouble communicating effectively.

Fifty-three per cent said Mr. Dion doesn't offer much optimism or inspiration while an equal percentage said he seems like a weak leader.

Forty-seven per cent said there's something about Mr. Dion they don't like, compared to 55 per cent who said the same thing about Mr. Harper.

I wonder if it easier for Harper to become more likable than it will be for Dion to appear inspiring.

Topaz · May 9, 2008

Exactly. btw, what is the Liberal policy on the GST this week? Are the for eliminating it? No, they promised that and broke their promise. Are they against cutting it? So they say, but they haven't proposed to raise it now that the CPC has kept their promise to lower it.
So very confusing. I guess it isn't easy to make priorities. For Steph Dion that is.

The Lib said they would have lowered income taxes rather than the GST. You know as well as everyone on this forum that no government will get rid of the GST especially now that times are getting tougher, gov't needs the money, the war is costing alot.

Michael Bluth · May 9, 2008

The Lib said they would have lowered income taxes rather than the GST. You know as well as everyone on this forum that no government will get rid of the GST especially now that times are getting tougher, gov't needs the money, the war is costing alot.

But I thought the Liberals were going to end our involvement in Afghanistan?

So the Liberals policy on the GST is keeping it this week?

BubberMiley · May 9, 2008

I wonder if it easier for Harper to become more likable than it will be for Dion to appear inspiring.

Once you become familiar with a person, the idiosyncracies in their speech become more neutralized. Just look at Chretien.

On the other hand, if Harper were an actor, he would have a very hard time not being typecast as the bad guy. It's those cold, death camp eyes.

jdobbin · May 9, 2008

Once you become familiar with a person, the idiosyncracies in their speech become more neutralized. Just look at Chretien.
On the other hand, if Harper were an actor, he would have a very hard time not being typecast as the bad guy. It's those cold, death camp eyes.

You might be right. The Tories once tried to make fun of Chretien's speaking style but his likability overcame that and the ad backfired.

Dion is getting better at speaking despite the Tories trying to trip him up every Question Period.

Remiel · May 9, 2008

I would think it would have been hard for anyone to not have overcome what must be one of if not the most digusting campaign advertisements in the history of Canadian politics. That is not to detract from Chretien, for it was a horrible thing they said about him, but I cannot believe that would of gone over well no matter what kind of person was on the receiving end.

Michael Bluth · May 9, 2008

I would think it would have been hard for anyone to not have overcome what must be one of if not the most digusting campaign advertisements in the history of Canadian politics. That is not to detract from Chretien, for it was a horrible thing they said about him, but I cannot believe that would of gone over well no matter what kind of person was on the receiving end.

Well said. No one is defending that ad. It was blindingly stupid. The PCs deserved to be crushed in the ensuing election and they were.

It was terrible and the three guilty parties are long gone from the Federal scene.

John Tory is wallowing as OLO in Ontario. Allan Gregg is reduced to punditry on the National once a week. Kim Campbell? Living in France last I heard...

Michael Bluth · May 10, 2008

Harper doubles Dion on major leadership questions. Link

Will Stephane make it to his first election or will he get dumped before then?

The most trustworthy leader
Stephen Harper 31 (+1)

Stephane Dion 14 (NC)

Jack Layton 14 (-7)

Elizabeth May 5 (-3)

Gilles Duceppe 4 (-2)

UNPROMPTED

None of them/Undecided 32 (+12)

The most competent leader

Stephen Harper 39 (NC)

Stephane Dion 12 (-4)

Jack Layton 11 (-4)

Gilles Duceppe 5 (-1)

Elizabeth May 1 (-2)

UNPROMPTED

None of them/Undecided 32 (+10)

The leader with the best vision for Canada's future

Stephen Harper 31 (-1)

Stephane Dion 14 (-3)

Jack Layton 14 (-4)

Elizabeth May 4 (-2)

Gilles Duceppe 3 (NC)

UNPROMPTED

None of them/Undecided 35 (+11)

Shakeyhands · May 10, 2008

Harper doubles Dion on major leadership questions. Link
Will Stephane make it to his first election or will he get dumped before then?

I would have thought you would be quite grateful for Dion, I figure at this point he's the only reason we aren't headed for an election and a Liberal Gov't.