Canadian Political Polls

[LastViking]

Last Ipsos poll I saw was for May 8 and it had the Tories in the lead.

Riding projections are about voter concentration. Remember, the NDP (& sometimes the Green Party) are higher in the polls than the BLQ. In England, the Labour Party can retain governance with 7% less votes. And apparently in Zimbawe there is an astonishing episode of behinders winning ... but we won't go there!

[BubberMiley]

Considering the fact the Tories overwin their seats in Alberta by a tremendous margin, I would agree that a slight Tory lead would equal a loss of government in an election.

[Wild Bill]

Riding projections are about voter concentration. Remember, the NDP (& sometimes the Green Party) are higher in the polls than the BLQ. In England, the Labour Party can retain governance with 7% less votes. And apparently in Zimbawe there is an astonishing episode of behinders winning ... but we won't go there!

I don't know who runs this Trendlines poll but it doesn't appear to have anything to do with Ipsos-Reid. It appears to have projections for nations all over the world. It appears to take every tiny moment to moment change and project it out to a ridiculous degree.

Is this some guy in his parent's basement in Paraguay?

I invite everyone to visit the site and try to make sense of their projections. Enjoy the prediction for a Liberal majority in 2009. It may change in the next 5 minutes. Who knows if you'll ever see it again?

[Fortunata]

"We love to say we're sorry" - Arrogant Worms, "Forgive Us We're Canadian".

Yawn

[jdobbin]

Latest poll from Angus Reid on the personal popularity of the leaders.

Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion's approval rating has sunk to its lowest level yet, with nine of 10 Canadians saying they disapprove or are not sure of his performance as the head of the party, according to the latest Toronto Star/Angus Reid opinion poll.

Not since former Liberal leader John Turner bottomed out with a 14 per cent approval rating shortly after losing the 1988 election have things been so bad for the head of Canada's most successful political party. Just 10 per cent of those surveyed stand behind Dion's leadership, the poll shows, compared to 32 per cent for Prime Minister Stephen Harper.

What's worse is that the number of people who said they were unsure about Dion's performance has dropped from 46 per cent at the end of last summer to 30 per cent this month, meaning that Canadians are making up their minds about a leader who has had difficulties rallying his party behind him as well as communicating his party's positions to potential voters.

"What's really disheartening is it's almost as if everyone's made up their minds already," said the polling firm's Mario Canseco. "Those who actually have something to say about Dion are saying negative things."

The online poll of 1,004 Canadians is considered accurate to within 3.1 percentage points, 19 times in 20.

Overall, 34 per cent of respondents said they would vote Conservative if an election were held tomorrow, compared to 27 per cent who would vote Liberal. The New Democrats were in third place with 18 per cent support.

Meanwhile, 42 per cent of Canadians think the country is on the "wrong track," up from 29 per cent in March. Canseco said this is a reflection of mounting concern with the economy.

Dion appears to me the main drag on Liberal fortunes right now while other issues appear to kept the Tory party stalled at the numbers they got in the election.

[jdobbin]

Latest Nanos poll. The Liberals have 34, the Tories 33, the NDP 15.

http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls...AT-S08-T301.pdf

[Keepitsimple]

Latest Nanos poll. The Liberals have 34, the Tories 33, the NDP 15.

http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls...AT-S08-T301.pdf

Crazy, isn't it? Maybe this will encourage the Liberals to pull the plug and start campaigning on their Carbon Tax. One can only hope.

[jdobbin]

Crazy, isn't it? Maybe this will encourage the Liberals to pull the plug and start campaigning on their Carbon Tax. One can only hope.

The policy was announced early probably because it requires a lot of sales work. If it isn't popular, I expect it will be dropped before an election is ever held.

The emphasis most certainly is going to be on income tax cuts in an election and restoration of things like the daycare program cancelling out the Tory program which doesn't work.

Edited May 23, 2008 by jdobbin

[Michael Bluth]

The policy was announced early probably because it requires a lot of sales work. If it isn't popular, I expect it will be dropped before an election is ever held.

The emphasis most certainly is going to be on income tax cuts in an election and restoration of things like the daycare program cancelling out the Tory program which doesn't work.

The election will be all carbon tax all the time.

If Dion flip flops *again* the carbon tax will be the story.

This is an incredibly tough sell and Steph quite frankly doesn't have the sales skills to pull it off. Bad choice, and the defining issue for the election has been delivered.

[Vancouver King]

How to explain the govts dismal showing. The Elections Canada debacle is certainly a factor, however, peel away the myriad controversies and the single, glaring issue that remains is Harper's indifference to issues of great importance to Canadians: global warming, environmental degradation and the resulting hits to Canada's international reputation.

With Harper in the pocket of big oil, his Environment ministry silent while oil sands development turns vast tracks of Alberta into wasteland and, incredibly, the PM scolds motorists who hope for relief at gas pumps.

Fight an election over a carbon levy? Dion might never find a more favorable battlefield.

[Michael Bluth]

How to explain the govts dismal showing.

Fight an election over a carbon levy? Dion might never find a more favorable battlefield.

If the Conservative's results are "dismal" how do you classify the Liberal results?

You are right that Dion probably won't find a more favourable battlefield. That doesn't mean that the carbon tax flip flop is a winning battlefield for him.

[jdobbin]

With Harper in the pocket of big oil, his Environment ministry silent while oil sands development turns vast tracks of Alberta into wasteland and, incredibly, the PM scolds motorists who hope for relief at gas pumps.

Fight an election over a carbon levy? Dion might never find a more favorable battlefield.

Certainly Harper has his own tax issue to face such as his flip flop on income trusts. He lied in the election when he said he wouldn't do anything and as a result Bell Canada is facing difficulties.

[Shakeyhands]

Certainly Harper has his own tax issue to face such as his flip flop on income trusts. He lied in the election when he said he wouldn't do anything and as a result Bell Canada is facing difficulties.

I'd love to see a compilation of Harpers CPC lies, gaffes and broken promises, from Emerson and income trusts to Psychics and dirty fingernailed faggots.

I bet there is one somewhere....

[Michael Bluth]

I'd love to see a compilation of Harpers CPC lies, gaffes and broken promises, from Emerson and income trusts to Psychics and dirty fingernailed faggots.

I bet there is one somewhere....

Your compilation would only appeal to the converted and send swing voters running from the Liberals - to the left and right.

Emerson, dealt with. His results in cabinet have proven to be in the best interest of the country.

Income trust, yet again in the best interest of the country.

Psychics? Childish, tempest in a teapot.

Lukiwski's comments? Horrendous. Dealt with. You probably could have referenced them without such disgusting language. Yet another group beneath your contempt?

If anything any CPC candidate has done in the past 17 years is fair game, than so is Adscam, the dithering of Paul Martin, the HRDC boondoggle, the firearms registry money pit. And so on, and so on, and so on.

*scary* *scary* *scary* didn't work in 2006. But if the Liberal 'braintrust' hasn't learned that lesson already then that just improves the chances of a CPC majority.

Edited May 24, 2008 by Michael Bluth

[Vancouver King]

Emerson, dealt with. His results in cabinet have proven to be in the best interest of the country.

I can only hope Emerson, in a moment of confidence, seeks another term in a Vancouver constituency. Do candidates still lose their deposits for embarrassing results, Michael? If so, score his attempted re-election as one for the treasury.

[Michael Bluth]

I can only hope Emerson, in a moment of confidence, seeks another term in a Vancouver constituency. Do candidates still lose their deposits for embarrassing results, Michael? If so, score his attempted re-election as one for the treasury.

Yes, they do. If they receive less than 15% of the vote. Only one CPC candidate in BC lost their deposit in 2006.

Not sure if Emeron's running again.

Given how the Liberals barely squeaked out a win over the CPC in the Quadra by-election I wouldn't be so sure that any CPC candidates will lose their deposit in BC this go round.

Edited May 24, 2008 by Michael Bluth

[madmax]

Quebec Poll

BQ 1st

CPC 2nd

NDP 3rd

LPC 4th (Statistical tie with NDP)

http://ca.reuters.com/article/domesticNews...925681620080529

Edited May 30, 2008 by madmax

[jdobbin]

Quebec Poll

CPC 1st

BQ 2nd

NDP 3rd

LPC 4th (Statistical tie with NDP)

http://ca.reuters.com/article/domesticNews...925681620080529

I think you mean BQ first, Tories second.

The Liberals continue to do terribly in Quebec.

[MontyBurns]

Quebec Poll

CPC 1st

BQ 2nd

NDP 3rd

LPC 4th (Statistical tie with NDP)

http://ca.reuters.com/article/domesticNews...925681620080529

Oh yeah. Down with the socialists.

[Vancouver King]

Quebec Poll

CPC 1st

BQ 2nd

NDP 3rd

LPC 4th (Statistical tie with NDP)

http://ca.reuters.com/article/domesticNews...925681620080529

Hmmm.....according to Crop the Bloc is 1st at 31% and CPC 2nd at 28% - did the CPC gain another 4% overnight? Don't let that deter you, compared to the Nanos numbers Crop found 2 extra New Democrats for each one counted 5 days earlier.

Guess it boils down to credibility...

Edited May 29, 2008 by Vancouver King

[Fortunata]

According to Harris Decima (as seen on the National last night) Harpers numbers are down:

Overall satisfaction with this government:

Dec 07 - 53%

May 08 - 40%

Furthermore, 61% think Harper is doing a bad job re: integrity and 65% think Harper is doing a bad job with accountability.

Majority? I think maybe not.

[madmax]

I think you mean BQ first, Tories second.

Yes, You are correct.

[madmax]

Hmmm.....according to Crop the Bloc is 1st at 31% and CPC 2nd at 28% - did the CPC gain another 4% overnight? Don't let that deter you, compared to the Nanos numbers Crop found 2 extra New Democrats for each one counted 5 days earlier.

Guess it boils down to credibility...

You asked for the poll in a different thread. I put the poll where it belongs.

My editing error raised the expectations of the CPC more then deserved. It has been fixed.

I don't normally follow Quebec polls, be it Nanos or Crop.

[JaysFan]

According to Harris Decima (as seen on the National last night) Harpers numbers are down:

Overall satisfaction with this government:

Dec 07 - 53%

May 08 - 40%

Furthermore, 61% think Harper is doing a bad job re: integrity and 65% think Harper is doing a bad job with accountability.

Majority? I think maybe not.

It certainly is telling that a clear cut majority of Canadians think that Harper is doing a bad job in the 3 planks which he used to lead him to power.

Because let's be honest here, Canadians didn't vote him in based on their love of his policies, they voted the Liberals a time out based on Harper's promise to provide integrity, accountability and open, transparent government.

All of which he has failed at providing.

Harper's only saving grace is that Dion's no Chretien or Trudeau that can rally support like they could.

Edited May 31, 2008 by JaysFan

[jdobbin]

Canadians divided over Bernier affair.

The Ipsos Poll found that 51% of respondents agreed Prime Minister Stephen Harper "was right not to answer questions regarding the private relationship of one of his ministers and girlfriend, and that the details of who his ministers are dating are nobody's business."

But a slim majority, 55%, also want the RCMP to investigate whether Mr. Bernier breached national security, and they want the Mounties to delve into his relationship with Julie Couillard, according to a new poll. Mr. Bernier resigned on Monday after leaving classified NATO documents in Ms. Couillard's Montreal apartment. Ms. Couillard had links to Quebec biker gangs.

It would seem that privancy normally applies. However, when security matters come up, Canadians favour investigation.