Throne Speech October 2007

Visionseeker · October 17, 2007

Overall a pretty vague speech. The only solid info was that next GST cut will come in the next budget and that Kyoto was dead. Still, no real details.
We'll see what happens in the Liberal caucus tomorrow. They could ask Dion to resign. They might decide to go into the election as a means to getting rid of the leader. Or most likely, they will vote in favour of the throne speech and deal with the issues as they come up.

I don't know where you get your scuttle, but Dion certainly isn't going to be made to resign. Anyone who asks that he do so would be killing their own political future.

His caucus is going to say that they fear an election, he's going to say that fear is a mark of either ignorance or unpreparedness. Thus, let us prepare.

jbg · October 17, 2007

Mark Twain and Paul McCartney where both presumed deceased, not a bad club I'll say. Dion is hardly done. The fact that Conservatives persist in advancing such ideas when the polls have him consistently holding the 2006 support only shows how much they fear him.

No. It shows that the Quebec trio of bi-elections had a "Katrina result" for the Liberals.

August1991 · October 17, 2007

On the trade barrier issue, I noticed some atypically blunt language

It's not blunt - it's boiler plate. That's the usual line when talking about interprovincial trade barriers. And the speech said the government would "consider" looking at ways to remove them.

Same story wrt to limits on the federal power to spend. The Speech just re-iterated the existing policy, although it said that it would make it explicit.

This is a bland speech and I wish it had been bolder (more specific) about tax cuts. Harper could have been more explicit about environmental policies too.

Something else. I'm not one of these people who finds the "Spirit of Canada" in the "Great White North". Flying over it and looking down, all I've seen is cold, flat, barren wasteland. The Soviets sank the equivalent of billions and billions into their wasteland and it got them precisely nowhere. As I have said elsewhere, government bureaucrats cannot pick winners and they shouldn't try.

I thought you said that if they vote down the government, it is because they are power hungry. And if they don't vote down the government, they don't stand for anything?

No, I meant that if, to avoid an election, they vote to support the government when the Speech is clearly contrary to Liberal "principles", then the Liberals have no principles - except at all times winning power.

----

Alain Dubuc has a good editorial on this speech:

Ce à quoi on a assisté depuis un an et demi, c’est à la métamorphose d’un parti, qui s’affranchit progressivement de ses racines idéologiques, qui est en train d’abandonner les éléments les plus insupportables de son dogme de sa culture d’origine, pour devenir un parti de gouvernement. Et qui le fait de la seule façon qui permet à un parti de gouverner au Canada, en recherchant l’équilibre du centre. La chenille de droite est en train de se transformer en papillon centriste.

Dubuc compared the Tories' first throne speech with the one tonight. The Tories have quickly become a mature, centrist government. Harper has grown well into the role of PM.

And yet, despite all the problems inside the Liberal Party, and despite how much he waters down his policies, Harper can't really beat 36% on a consistent basis.

I think Harper missed an occasion here. Chretien would have gone for the jugular. Harper is a typical English-Canadian, he's too phelgmatic.

Edited October 17, 2007 by August1991

Visionseeker · October 17, 2007

The Bloc moves amendments on Thursday and the Liberals on Monday. I think the Liberals will swallow their pride. There is nothing here that it is evidently outrageous and the Liberals will say that they will support the government waiting for specific legislation and specific measures.
The Liberal caucus is tomorrow. Harper has lobbed the ball into Dion's court now. It's up to Dion to decide whether he'll slam or lob it back.

It's not about pride as much as optics. Killing a Speech from the Throne (which I don't believe has ever been done BTW) is like killing a kitten. Nothing can be gained by squashing something cuddly.

August1991 · October 17, 2007

Of course it could work. School yard rules: you don't pick a fight when you aren't prepared to win.

Uh, you mean a strategic retreat?

As for being the guardian of values, I've seen a good number of conservative groups questioning Harper's values (Fraser Institute, Gerry Nicholls, etc...). But as Reid put it (a person whom I rarely agree with BTW), we are approaching a clash of vision. And if the election can be held-over while the vision debate emerges, then the Liberals could very well have the momentum.

Typical Liberal-style answer. First, you refer to the Conservatives and "they do it too". Second, what do you mean by saying that "the vision debate emerges"? Is this part of a strategic retreat?

Frankly, the Liberals have no vision at all - except the vision one has sitting in the back of a limo. The Liberals want the perks of power and they have convinced some Canadians that when the Liberals are in the limo doing whatever goes through the mind of a Liberal, that's Canada.

Visionseeker · October 17, 2007

No. It shows that the Quebec trio of bi-elections had a "Katrina result" for the Liberals.

I wouldn't over-react on that score. The Liberal brand was stained outside the Montreal area because of sponsorship. They will do well to build on what they have and, if I were a betting man, I'd say that mulclair will lose in the (higher turn-out and less coordinated assult) general election. A realistic aim for the Liberals in Quebec is 22 - 26 seats.

geoffrey · October 17, 2007

C-30 can be reintroduced as a private member's bill.

That certainly would trigger an election.

Plus, do you really think any Canadian is stupid enough to think we can meet targets due in just over two months? Why is Pablo so underestimating of Canadian intelligence when he put forward the bill in the first place?

Or... more scary... do they actually lack the understanding that it's impossible? Do they actually believe you can cut emissions 50% in two months?

Canadians get it. They are playing politics and are wrong. It won't win them a single vote beyond the mentally incompetent.

scribblet · October 17, 2007

I have to agree that the Liberals don't seem to have any valid economic plan. All they seem to be able to do is disagree with the Tories no matter what, I think it's their one policy. Anything the Tories do, we'll disagree with, even if it's good for Canada.

old_bold&cold · October 17, 2007

It really does not matter which way Dion wants to go, it has all been pretty much been fore told by Iggy, that the liberals will support the speech. The rest is just all for show and tell type news. If Dion has not understood yet, that his own party is trying to oust him, it should be clear to him now, and he can not really go on leading, without realizing that the true powers of the liberals are not with him any more and he should probably resign as leader, if he really has any real objective, for helping the liberal cause. The timing for him to do this would have to be fast, as the first order of the day will be the crime package and that will get passed mostly because it already was past before. This would give the liberals a very short window to have a leadership convention, and then try to unite the party before the CPC can get even more powerful with the next budget. If they miss this window or choose to go to election now, ir will be disasterous for the party, and the natural following leadership convention, will be one where it once again will be a game of hot potatoe. Those who were disposed to sit out the last race, will see little value to come forward at this time. Manley was groomed by Chretien to be leader and it still is not ready for the party to accept that insight from their past leader. And the voters will not be ready yet for that to happen. Interesting times are awaiting us, and I am glad to be an observer in all of this, as the players will be sure to get roughed up alot this time round.

maldon_road · October 17, 2007

This makes it clear that the Libs are not going to force an election. There is no way they can vote for it. They would be a laughing stock - they would be acknowledging that Kyoto is dead meat. So it will be by abstaining or by being absent.

Now of course all this might do is give the anti-Dion forces more opportunity to try and dump him. But I don't think that will happen. It would pull the party apart. More likely the Liberals will continue to stumble and fumble along. But unless they want to become completely irrelevant at some point they will have to stand up and be counted. Are they going to agree to Harper's crime package or any environmental legislation that they consider sub-standard?

A Strong and Responsible Opposition
October 16, 2007

The Conservative governmentâ€™s second Speech from the Throne has done little to address the priorities and needs of all Canadians, but as Liberals we have a responsibility to act in the best interests of our great country.

That is why our party will not overreact to the election hype generated by the Harper government....

As the Official Opposition, our focus should be on how best to make Parliament work for all Canadians. If the Prime Minister insists on making this impossible, he has only himself to blame for starting an election.

As a responsible opposition, the Liberal team will take the time to discuss the implications of the Throne Speech and determine how well it serves the interests of Canadians from coast to coast to coast...

http://www.liberal.ca/story_13214_e.aspx

Edited October 17, 2007 by maldon_road

margrace · October 17, 2007

The throne speech has two components, it shows how arrogant Harper is, the Canadian people are being ignored in his agenda. The second component is that one wonders how stupid the Canadian people are, Harper seems to think we are all a bunch of idiots and maybe he is right. Bow down to the king.

maldon_road · October 17, 2007

If I recall all three opposition parties claimed to support some form of crime legislation "in principle" but then nickled-and-dimed the CPC bills to death in committee.

Given that the Libs are going to support the Throne Speech this will be the second opportunity for Mr Dion and his colleagues to stand up and be counted.

Crime legislation has priority: Prentice
The Conservatives say the new crime bill outlined in the throne speech is their main priority, and will be the first piece of legislation introduced in Parliament this fall, provided an election isn't called....

"It is the priority of Canadians, that's what we've heard over the course of the summer months," Industry Minister Jim Prentice told CBC News on Wednesday, one day after the throne speech was read on Parliament Hill.

"We don't feel we were able to get the criminal justice legislation that Canadians asked for through the House of Commons in the last session. We're going to hold the opposition's feet to the fire to get it through this time."

The new crime bill, as outlined in the throne speech, will include measures on impaired driving, age of sexual consent, stricter bail conditions and mandatory prison terms for gun crimes....

If less than half of MPs vote to accept the speech after six days of debate in the House of Commons, Harper's minority government will fall and an election will be called.

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2007/10/17/throne-speech.html

myata · October 17, 2007

There's absolutely nothing (other than conservatives's strategists dreams) that require Liberals to vote either for or against this and trigger an election nobody (other than conservatives strategists) really wants or needs.

There are things in the speach that they could not with clear conscience vote for, so they can stay away from the vote or abstain. If Harper is more interested in playing political games, than governing as he should in the minority situation - which is, in dialogue and compromise with the opposition - let him continue devising tricks he's becoming famous for, with no progress on any of the real issues. I'm sure most Canadians are smart enough to see through this.

Yes Liberals do appear to be in the crunch on credibility and lidership issues. They just shouldn't making it any worse by playing into Harpers majority game. Keep watching him closely, keep focus on key issues such as Afganistan, the environment and (missing) openness of this government, while trying to resolve internal issues. Let Harper show some dough before he can be trusted with the majority.

Now, I'm really p/o with this GST thing. In my estimates, it saved me around $150 this year while Martin's 0.5% income tax rate cut would have done 500+. And those guys are reaping record surpluses. Why does it remind me of Mike Harris's $200 (continuos spin and pay more for less).

fellowtraveller · October 17, 2007

Mark Twain and Paul McCartney where both presumed deceased, not a bad club I'll say. Dion is hardly done. The fact that Conservatives persist in advancing such ideas when the polls have him consistently holding the 2006 support only shows how much they fear him.

It is patently obvious that Dion will never be Prime Minister. That in itself is enough to guarantee that he will be gone , the only question is when.

Today? Very unlikely, this is totally ignominous personally for Dion and will not serve the Liberal Party in any way. They will then be faced both with an election -which the'll lose anyway- and their new leader defeated.

Second option s for Dion to vote against the throne speech, trigger an election that he must lose, and quit before he is fired.

Third option is for Dion to hang on, support the government time after time until some magical mystical future when he is personally popular, then force an election on his terms. An election he would likely still lose, get fired after, etc etc.

The least humilaiting route for Dion and the Liberals is to bite the bullet and force an election now, allow Dion to resign gracefully, pcik another leader and try to rebuild. Option Two is likely.

Wilber · October 17, 2007

There are things in the speach that they could not with clear conscience vote for, so they can stay away from the vote or abstain.

Doesn't that give Harper a majority?

old_bold&cold · October 17, 2007

Dion can rsign as leader and appoint Iggy as interm leader and then wait for the leadership convention to happen. He can do this by supporting the CPC for another 1-2 months and after that, the liberal can force an election, which yes they will probably lose any way. There is no magical formula that will give the liberals power for atleast the next decade or so. That is why party big names stayed awy from the last leadership race.

jbg · October 17, 2007

There are things in the speach that they could not with clear conscience vote for, so they can stay away from the vote or abstain.

In that event the CPC MP's should invoke "pairing".

Wilber · October 17, 2007

In that event the CPC MP's should invoke "pairing".

I take it you are being facetious.

M.Dancer · October 17, 2007

Dion can rsign as leader and appoint Iggy as interm leader and then wait for the leadership convention to happen. He can do this by supporting the CPC for another 1-2 months and after that, the liberal can force an election, which yes they will probably lose any way. There is no magical formula that will give the liberals power for atleast the next decade or so. That is why party big names stayed awy from the last leadership race.

Im amazed they would think a longterm non resident would make a better leader than Dion.

fellowtraveller · October 17, 2007

Dion can rsign as leader and appoint Iggy as interm leader and then wait for the leadership convention to happen. He can do this by supporting the CPC for another 1-2 months and after that, the liberal can force an election, which yes they will probably lose any way. There is no magical formula that will give the liberals power for atleast the next decade or so. That is why party big names stayed awy from the last leadership race.

Nope, won't happen, unless you belive that Iggy will not run again as leader..

Think of the optics.

Any interim leader is going to have to regularly eat a full diet of crap sandwiches from Harper, supporting him on all of the numerous confidence votes, until the Liberal Party slects a leader. This applies as well to any contenders for the leadership that are presently MPs.

That image would hobble the Liberal Party forever, and cripple the new leader. You cannot be both an effective leader in the House, and a serious candidate for Party leader, while you are doing a prolonged imitation of Harpers puppet.

And what makes you think that conditions will be any better for the Liberals in some mystical wonderful future in a few months?

They are in a bad position that may well get much worse. Dion will opt to go out in a blaze of defiance, which oddly enough may garner him a bit of the respect from Liberals and Canadians that has eluded him for a year.

Edited October 17, 2007 by fellowtraveller

myata · October 17, 2007

Doesn't that give Harper a majority?

Of course not. Not on the vague unclear softy staments in the Throne speach. They should stay put and force his hand (if that's what he wants anyways) by making the crime bill (which he refused to compromise on) a matter of confidence. Or "hot air" act. Or Afgansitan. That way it'll be up to us, not Harper with his unknown majority agenda, to decide what's really important and what not.

Wilber · October 17, 2007

Of course not. Not on the vague unclear softy staments in the Throne speach. They should stay put and force his hand (if that's what he wants anyways) by making the crime bill (which he refused to compromise on) a matter of confidence. Or "hot air" act. Or Afgansitan. That way it'll be up to us, not Harper with his unknown majority agenda, to decide what's really important and what not.

I don't think the Liberals will force an election until they see specific legislation either. It wouldn't make sense for any party to do it over something as vague as a throne speech. But if they are going to abstain or not show up for votes on specific bills then it is the same as a majority.

Either you get off the pot or he gets to govern with a majority till you do. You have to hope that when you finally do force an election, it is over an issue which is important enough to a majority of the voting public to side with you. The best you can hope for is that Harper will make a huge mistake. Until then you are giving him a majority.

myata · October 17, 2007

Or, if he keeps showing over and again that his interest is not in addressing real issues and having work done (in accordance with his mandate, which is, to remind, a very slim minority, which may not be obvious from Harpers lofty attitudes), but rather, in advancing his much aspired majority agenda, it may just happen that voters will lose interest in him (and his party). Let's wait and see what's coming - real will to have work done in compromise with provinces and opposition, or more politicking to undermine others for his agenda. Eventually, if that's is all he could show for several years in government, even Dion may appear a more positive alternative.