Quote your source if your going to start using specific numbers.
As far as breaking them down, the Liberals have less support in Quebec than the Conservatives do. The Liberals cannot be elected without Quebec. They've never been able to.
Ontario has favored the Liberals forever, and that's only because the GTA contains over 50% of Ontario's voters and the Liberals have always pandered to it's gigantic immigrant population. Aside from the GTA and Vancouver, Liberal support is nothing remarkable.
What I really find interesting, however, is that the minor parties on the left command 3/10 voters. That helps the Conservatives. The left typically never votes Blue anyways, and the more support the minor parties get on the left, the worse off the Liberals are.
Harper is no fool, you're right. He knows things could not look much better for an election.