Moonbox

Central Banks have always been able to influence long term bond rates. The Fed Chair could tweet a picture of Pug and that would probably affect long term bond rates. Japan's problems are more fundamental in nature than just central banking. Wild speculation, poor capital controls/regulation and rapid global/liberalization blew the whole thing up by the 90's. The beginning of that mess coincided with the beginning of a demographic crisis which has only worsened since, with the working population shrinking from over 70% in the early 90's to less than 60% by the time COVID hit. That Japan's problems are markedly different than here should be evident simply by the fact that they've spent the last 25-30 years struggling to reverse deflation, rather than inflation.

Here is a very good example of what I'm talking about. Some of his points are true (albeit simplified), some are exaggerations and many are flat out wrong, including the final conclusion. This will bear out over the next year or two and he'll of course be proven wrong, but the narrative has been repeated so many times that it's become the only reality to many.

? Western Europe has the gas it needs for the winter. They're more worried about what's going on in Ukraine, and today the European Parliament declared Russia a terrorist state. https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/press-room/20221118IPR55707/european-parliament-declares-russia-to-be-a-state-sponsor-of-terrorism Which is exactly the same thing as saying, "Okay Russia you go ahead and take what you like," which is precisely what you want to have happen:

Yes, but I tried to pick one that wasn't pure poison. Well we sort of do, in that we have specialized administrations looking after specific things. We have physicists and engineers etc looking after our nuclear reactors. We have doctors running health files, generals running the military, highly economists running the BoC etc. They're not always perfect and sometimes they lose sight that they're working for the people, rather than the other way around, but in that case the government can turn to outside consultants and experts to help unravel what's going on.

I have plenty of sources. Here's one. You can look up others if you actually care. As I said, Donald Trump's personal website is a pretty dumb place to get unbiased assessments of his own wealth. https://www.thefiscaltimes.com/2015/07/28/Donald-Trump-Isn-t-Rich-He-Says-He-s-Still-Pretty-Rich His $10B self-proclaimed wealth is based on declaring things like his golf-courses being worth 3-4x more than similar golf courses would be valued. I'm not really going to waste any more breath on silly goofs like you though. It's pretty clear you're not actually interested in a reasonable debate. Have a good life. MAGA! ?

I've been saying this on this forum for awhile now that monetary policy and central banking is overwhelmingly complex beyond the average perception. Explaining it is hard because unless you also have the foundational economic knowledge to understand the terminology and relationships, it's going to seem hopelessly esoteric and complex. The number of people who are actually going to read (or listen to) an essay on it to get even a basic grasp are few, so as a popular media/discussion topic you end up with little but oversimplified and/or grossly inaccurate summaries/narratives that mostly confuse people. This has made for fertile ground for negativity, with central bankers around the world under mountains of criticism from folk who (at best) have no idea what they're talking about, but also those that do understand but see it as a useful political whipping boy. The reason I made this thread was a timely article in the CBC (I know - reee MSM fake news), where the author points out the challenges explaining this to the average layfolk and references the Deputy BoC Governor's attempts to make policy decisions more accessible. https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/inflation-interest-rates-column-don-pittis-1.6660112 The CD Howe Institute also had some interesting takes on how silly the politicization of monetary policy has become, but my favorite quote from the article was the comparison to "Doing Your Own Brain Surgery". Most people would defer to the medical experts on this and can understand the obvious implications of mucking around as noobs, but because it's not so obvious or visible, they have trouble doing the same for monetary policy despite relatively similar levels of complexity. I've done some crypto investing over the last couple years and made a lot of money off it, but it's been very much a Greater Fools game where I ride a delusional hype train and bail long before whatever sh*tcoin I'm buying inevitably steams off a cliff. Central to the delusions of crypto bros and moonbois has been the theory that central banks were steering us towards hyperinflation and the imminent collapse of sovereign fiat currencies (pushed heavily in 2021). These theories have predictably played out as false and crypto market caps have been devastated since Nov 2021, but the narrative that central banks are just printing piles of cash out on their money machines and using it to prop up their governments persists anyways. Many of these folk sit at their computers reading charts that don't tell them what they think they do, and sharing tweets and blogs that reinforce their narrative, but all they're doing is reinforcing their poor decision making. The TLDR of this post, I think, is that people often don't know what they don't know. Convincing yourself that you're capable of proficiency in deeply complex subjects that usually require years of formal education and/or practical experience is unwise. I'm guilty of it sometimes and try as much as I can to recognize when it happens, but that's unfortunately sometimes long after the fact. We don't have to blindly defer to authority, but at the same time we should be acknowledging that on many subjects, we're not really capable of commenting fairly or intelligently. That's not because we're stupid. It's because we have no idea what we're talking about and because spending our after-hours prowling the interweb is not going to solve that. Sometimes, we have to let the experts be the experts.

I mock you and people like you, and the term is meant to describe exactly what you're doing here. Yes, I believe in freedom over fundamentalism and ancient religious dogma. ?‍♂️ Your beliefs are your own, and I'd have nothing really to say about them until you start trying to shove them down everyone's throat.

That could be the case, but then this was one midterm season, the reality you describe was mostly localized (especially in places like Florida) and not yet indicative of a trend. The shift of the Hispanic vote could be explained by how unpopular Joe Biden is and how worried people were about inflation and the economy. They're not as expensive as ours ? I agree on all points, except I think you understate the effect that Roe vs Wade had. He won the first election because people were tired of the Liberals. He won the subsequent ones because he was cynical, pragmatic and willing to compromise. Maybe, but these things are all about narratives. Harper understood that the electorate (outside of a minority) considers abortion a fundamental right and that they weren't going to tolerate challenges to it. I can make up a bunch of silly examples of doofus private member bills I think even you'd agree would be problematic for the party. Trudeau's ascension was pre-ordained. I said on this forum back in 2009-2010 it was going to happen. I could probably find that post. The brand was too strong, and people were tired of Harper, who wasn't nearly as fiscally conservative as people expected him to be, though he was certainly better than Trudeau. Because the Conservative Party would be considered guilty by association. For the many Canadian, abortion rights are fundamental. That needs to be part of the platform and the brand, and if it's not, and you have rogue MP's publicly attacking things like this, the average voter has reason to doubt.

What are you contesting? There was undoubtedly a crowd that gave a standing ovation, but it wasn't the whole crowd and plenty have voiced their displeasure about both the speech and the ovation. They didn't list who applauded it either, so I don't really see what's strange about this. Are we supposed to tally up the yays and the nays to determine who's right? ? I don't think the Minister's opinion is remarkable. She's going to parrot Trudeau, so we can ignore her, but Jennie Carignan's voice matters and she undoubtedly has the support of Eyre and others in the upper leadership, else she'd have said nothing. It's not just the brass either. I can't remember the guy's name but I'm sure I could find it, but some colonel working with NATO in Europe was tweeting the speech was disgraceful or something to that effect. Of course it was his opinion, just like you're giving your opinion and I'm giving mine. What I thought was interesting was how closely Scott's feelings matched my own.

That's so clueless it's absurd, and not even worth debating. I don't think you understand anything about the world, or history or humanity.

It's not that simple, and I've already said why. Not only can minors be held responsible for their actions, this case isn't criminal anyways so the age doesn't actually matter. Too bad, so sad. At 14, you know better. "Me was child" is not an excuse for truly awful behavior. He beat up on a disabled kid for years, then made him eat candy he and his friends had wiped in a urinal. This isn't just normal everyday bullying. This is sick. and Hockey Canada is in crisis, with sponsors pulling their funding and parents not wanting a tarnished nickel to go towards the organization, whilst the investigation is ongoing. Of course, according to you, this would just be more "cancel-culture", right? Why should the naval guy go if it wasn't yet proven? Let me ask it another way. Let's pretend you had a daughter, and her volleyball coach was accused of soliciting a student at her school. Without a conviction, how would you feel about that teacher still teaching and attending classes, marking potential witness' papers. It hasn't yet been proven in court, so by your logic there's nothing anyone should do, right?? It works the same way with police officers, judges or really any position of authority. Not to adult standards, and that's probably why he didn't go to jail. It doesn't mean they can't be held accountable for their actions. I turned your silly rhetoric right back at you. It wasn't very effective, was it?

No, he was 14, and grade 8 students born between Jan and June are 14 by the time they're done. Depends on the case. If it's basic name calling etc, perhaps, but if it's physical assault, death threats etc, not really. NHL players aren't provided carte blanche either. I can go back to the 80's if you like and provide examples of players who were booted for sexual assault offenses, but I'm not sure how much you actually care. If you did, you'd have done 30 seconds of google research and known better than to post the bolded foolishness above. One notable difference/advantage that wealthy athletes have, unfortunately, is that they can pay for expensive lawyers and hush settlements that a 20 year old can't. You might not think that's far, but I would challenge you to show any convicted rapists playing in the NHL today. Like whipping your willy out for a female subordinate on a navy ship? As far as I know, these officers aren't being fired, but are rather on paid leave. The allegations are serious enough that it doesn't make much sense to have accused officers actively in high-level positions of authority where they could influence the investigation. So what? Disregarding the fact that minors can be held legally responsible for their actions, he's not being legally punished. He's been released by his team because his past conduct was reprehensible, he omitted (or outright lied) about the details to the NHL and the teams that signed him, and he's demonstrated little/no efforts towards rehabilitation. His past conduct and his lack of trustworthiness have convinced them he's of poor character and not someone they want to work with. Playing in the NHL is a privilege earned, rather than a right, and it's not purely about being able to play hockey. My god man. Some generation that can't even decide what time it is on a clock? Did you get your kid to write this out for you? How can you even use the keyboard with that myopic boomer eyesight. ? I used to think you were a serious person on this forum, but stuff like that makes me doubt it.

I think it's noteworthy that many of the attending officers and servicemen did not applaud his speech, and that numerous senior military leaders have heavily criticized it. Even the CDA, the organization handing the award out to Maisonneuve has publicly distance itself from him and made clear it didn't approve of his speech. For a guy who ostensibly was trying to show the need for unity in Canada and the armed forces, his speech promoted anything but. I was talking to a buddy who recently left the CF (he was a logistics officer) about this speech and he pointed me towards a magazine he follows run by a former Canadian infantryman. His take on the Maisonneuve speech couldn't have been much closer to my own: http://espritdecorps.ca/on-target-4

Case closed - warp reality. You're beyond help now and nobody's going to save you from your own delusions. Keep reading your blogs and your 4chan pages. They'll tell you what you want to hear and make you feel comfy.

No, the military is weighed down by a bloated bureaucracy and senior leadership, as well as 40-50 years of neglect from our governments. The few soldiers that will get to have a purple streak in their hair, or grow a longer beard than the dinosaurs deem appropriate is really not the problem.

Neither are making a great case for themselves. ? #Bitcoin - Pierre Poilievre, May 2022

That's true, but if you wanna criticize Trudeau for his fluff degree you hold PP's in the same regard.

Fair criticism of Trudeau, but then the alternative on-offer is Pierre Poilievre, who was first elected without any post-secondary degree and who's never held a real job in his whole life. The guy only earned his "Bachelor of Arts" degree when he was close to 30, and is a pure career politician.

Except it doesn't. https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/hunter-biden-s-business-bad-look-here-s-how-fix-n1294057 You just don't like that they don't spend all of their time talking about it 24/7.

uh why not?

You're right - The stuff he was complaining about has nothing to do with running an effective military. This was nothing but bellyaching about liberal politics. The reason I brought up our bloated senior leadership is that this is just one among many problems the Canadian Forces have that have nothing to do with culture war dog whistles.

It's because you have warped reality around yourself to cope with the world not going your way. ?

Nope, sorry. Bible-thumpers are a very different breed than everyday Christians. You'd be considered one - the tasteless type prone to preaching and proselytizing to people uninterested in your religious messages.

? If he was talking purely about the military, I'd maybe listen carefully to what he has to say. Because he's ranting vaguely about whatever was grinding his gears at his time, and about society in general, I take his comments for what they were - ranting.

So he didn't bring up comments about "deplorables?" ? My god dude. I'm not saying he put a MAGA hat on. I'm saying he was pushing a lot of the same talking points. 5 generals - among the highest ranking members of the military and who should all be of unimpeachable moral character (or almost 4% of the active generals/admirals). The fact that none of have been proven is notable, but spurious sexual assault allegations are rare. As for the rest of the services, they're reporting on average 178/year, which is by my napkin math 3x higher than the national average. Don't know. If it's a low number, why are you so worried about it? I'm betting that these soldiers will take care to look after themselves, and you're unlikely to have trans folk with long neon pink locks poking their heads out of the brush to wave their hair around, or wear jangling nose chains in combat zones. So I know quite a few retired millennial soldiers, and curiously not a single one of them mentioned any of these things. What they did say was that there was a bloated and often clueless bureaucracy enforcing crappy culture that made serving (and particularly career advancement) a constant exercise in frustration. We have 129 generals/admirals for 65,000 service members (and shrinking). The US marines have ~60 generals for 180,000 service members.