madmax

Abacus Data May 15-16 CON 37% (same since March) NDP 35% (+7) LIB 17% (-3) BQ 6% (-2) GRN 5% (-2) Atlantic NDP 39% (+11) LIB 31% (+4) CON 27% (-12) GRN 4% (-2) Quebec NDP 41% (+13) BQ 23% (-10) CON 18% (+1) LIB 13% (-3) GRN 5% (-1) Ontario CON 38% (same) NDP 35% (+9) LIB 22% (-6) GRN 6% (-2) Prairies CON 55% (-5) NDP 28% (+10) LIB 10% (+2) GRN 7% (+4) Alberta CON 68% (+4) NDP 19% (+1) LIB 7% (-5) GRN 5% (-2) BC CON 41% (-2) NDP 40% (+6) LIB 18% (+1) GRN 5% (-3) Men CON 41% NDP 30% LIB 18% GRN 6% BQ 5% Female NDP 41% CON 32% LIB 16% BQ 7% GRN 4% 18-29 NDP 37% CON 27% LIB 22% GRN 7% BQ 7% 30-44 CON 37% NDP 35% LIB 16% BQ 7% GRN 5% 45-59 NDP 37% CON 37% LIB 16% GRN 5% BQ 5% 60+ CON 44% NDP 33% LIB 16% BQ 4% GRN 3% http://abacusdata.ca/2012/05/22/canadian-politics-conservatives-and-ndp-...

not that your 2 month comment isn't noted.. but.. http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/economy-lab/daily-mix/weak-growth-likely-to-nudge-unemployment-rate-higher/article2429629/ Economy Lab Weak growth likely to nudge unemployment rate higher Statistics Canada releases its labour force survey on Friday. Economists polled by Bloomberg expect 10,000 new jobs were created last month, not enough to prevent the unemployment rate from rising a notch to 7.3 per cent. ------- So yes you are correct and not its not a bad thing. But its not like you make it out either. We are not a basket case like other countries nor are we out of the woods. I have seen positive numbers before only to see them crumble a few months later. What you want to see is when the line is not longer bumpy, but steady. I don't by your line about East/West, that is a political power play. Of course this is a political forum so its the nature of the beast.

Canadian Productivity is just fine. It definitely fell when the dollar was 70cents and lower and I can tell you that many American firms ramped up purchasing Canadian Companies and then invested nothing in technologies. Until the dollar hit the 80s and it was market forces that moved them back into technological solutions. I recall one US firm was described as moving a hightech Canadian firm back into the 1970s and pen and paper. It was something to see, but that was how the US firm ran its operations and the superior Canadian firm, instead of being emulated, was dismantled and gutted. Interesting perspective of people who work for a living. I can't see $10.25 to $14 as being all that much money in Ontario, for general manufacturing and assembly. But yes the Engineers wages are dropping but it is difficult to believe they can compete with $600/month Engineers. US and Canadian Engineers just sign off anymore. Yes Even Ford had to overcome what others said about him paying good wages to his employees. Seems the Liberal Freemarket Economic Movement has done everything in its power to undermine the Ford Vision and the middle class.

I will hedge my bets against you, then hedge my bet against me, and then hedge against those who I believe won't be able to pay up when I fail. On a larger scale this will cause trillions in losses, not billions as I was wrong to say. And in the past this practice was illegal if now outright immoral with respect to mortgage lending and speculation which I will addres below. When you deregulate and cause a loss of consumer confidence, you lose your market. Ask a cattle rancher. When corporations are parking all their lobbyiests at the gates to get their imports into Canada with less scrutiny, it leads to lead coming back into childrens toys. When we allow companies to purchase techology and elimate competition to gain complete control of market and then allow that company to relocate with the technology and the cash cow, to shaft the employees (that is middle and upper management that gets shafted if you didn't know) and relocate offshore then this deregulation and non enforcement creates economic hardship for the country. I have no intention of being specific for the industrial sectors are vast and I believe that each sector knows what needs to be done. What they cannot control in Canada is the foreign decision making that often overlooks Canadians.. (if any are allowed to run the operations) .I do believe that regulation is needed when Harper hands out Millions to Electro-Motive for his Political Grandstanding and sits back and does nothing when a year later the company leaves courtesy of Canadas Economic Action Plan. Perhaps he does care about the facts and the fear mongering is coming from a connected few. I believe he is using studies from Canada and other nations with regards to a known economic occurance termed Dutch Disease. And some countries handles this transition better then others. 1st off its not my claim. It is the claim of various economists and its not out of the norm for massive corporate welfare. It has been in existence since Canada was a country and the Corporations were the 1st "welfare bums". You suggest that there are no subsidies. If I take your word for it, there is nothing to worry about. http://actionplan.gc.ca/initiatives/eng/index.asp?mode=3&initiativeID=207 However, from what I can read on "CANADAS ECONOMIC ACTION PLAN" the Harper government suggests their ARE subsidies and like Mulcair is not only set on Reducing them, but eliminating them in their entirety by 2013. Also the Harper Government Budget 2011 builds on this change by proposing to reduce the deduction rates for intangible capital expenses in oil sands projects and align them with the rates applicable in the conventional oil and gas sector. These changes will improve fairness and neutrality of the taxation of oil sands relative to other sectors of the economy. They constitute further action by Canada in support of the commitment by G-20 Leaders to rationalize and phase out over the medium term inefficient fossil fuel subsidies. ------- Essentially the EXTRA subsidies are going to be reduced to the level of Conventional Oil Subsidies. Subsidies to oil and gas amounted to 1.4 Billion. You can say that this corporate welfare is not a subsidy to an industry that has strong profits. But I will leave that to the economists and government to call it that. So this whole discussion is hardly radical scarey stuff. Its standard fare. There are many people who are realizing that the quality of Canadian made goods was superior to a long held myth. I have purchased a very good looking BBQ made in China and for a very reasonable price. I will be scrapping it after 1 year as its garbage and I have learned my lesson. Those options to purchase Canadian Manufactured goods are reduced with each foreign purchase of a Canadian Company and its closure. Then the choice is removed and yes we get alot of cheap crap. I see a dollar store filled with it. We can buy more of it too. I am interested in balance and it does not appear that we are very well balanced, when our operations can be aquired and dismantled with such ease. I also take issue that we cannot produce a good in Canada that is Competitively. I think my Toyota made here is just fine, thank you very much. And yes you can get a Hyundai for less money. Right now I am sick of the Crappy Toilets, hardware, poor doorhandles, found in bigbox stores and homehardwares. its all you can get...its cheap affordable and the chrome falls off, the enamal flakes off. I recall very affordable cheap carbide inserts purchased that cost less then the materials to make them. Its great if you want to throw out every 3rd or 4th shipment and lose production. Somethings are worth paying for and people will pay for it. I also believe its possible to produce a product here cheaper for market and it is still about preventing the competition from taking your cheap affordable mousetrap. I do believe it is a complex problem, however, monetary policy is not so complex, its not like its never touched, discussed or moved upon in one way or another. I will address your comment below regarding the solution. Canada does not make loans based on Racial Profiling but has been unregulated in the US as mortgages have been shown to be denied or accepted based on race. So you want regulation. not Deregulation. Greece is a nation that doesn't like to pay tax, likes to borrow money, and their loans have been called. This is not Canada, nor can one compare Greece to Canada, unless they simply wish to divert attention away from the Trillion $ meltdown that did affect Canada and was caused in the US through massive deregulation and greed. The dollar does not control itself but is subject to Market Speculation, manipulation as well as government policies designed to influence or control the above. If the dollar falls to low or climbs to high, there are consequences and effects. I have companies affected and not nearly as effected by the higher dollar. It depends on the contracts and the currency of transactions. That said, being an exporter is NOT being an manufacturer. There are far more variables involved. Thus, I find it rather amusing if not outright absurd that there are people saying we shouldn't be having a conversation about the dollar and about what is affecting it.

Perhaps you missed that Adopting the NeoLiberal over SmallC Conservative requires running high deficits to kill the modern state. It was used by Reagan, Bush, Clinton, BushII and Obama. That is without question, and it is not a wise choice (IMHO) that said, in all circumstances, the US has trended to allow its dollar to float with minor input, and a focus on keeping inflation low. With the economic collapse through deregulation, the government is grasping at straws and in hopes that a lower dollar will aid them competitively. Yes it can. It is a benefit of a higher dollar if importing equipment or technology from a foreign source. My experience of the past 12 years was massive investment in equipment when the dollar was floating to between 70cents and 80cents. There was significantly less investment when the dollar was lower then 70cents, and profits could be easliy made while competing with Mexico who, happened to be getting the benefits of NEW EQUIPMENT and technology. What I have seen is alot of that new hightech equipment was used for 3 to 7 years and then exported to China, Korea, Mexico and some back to the US as our dollar hit 90cents and upwards. The fact is that foreign owners are not branded to staying in Canada with a high dollar if access to market is easy and capital raised from Canadian productivity benefits can be invested offshore. If Oil is NOT being subsidized, then there is little to fear from Mulcairs proposal to reduce the subsidies that are claimed in the study to be inflating the price of oil without regard for its real costs. I am very open to the debate that Oil is not being subsidized. Well there is the truth and their is politics. Green Energy makes SFA to the manufacturing industries, especially heavy manufacturing (in which primary levels have been very much reduced). Energy was deregulated by the PCs in order to have Open Free Markets to Energy. The Enron Philosophy. Luckily for Ontario, half in half out, but still created a bad taste for manufacturers. They purchase hydro on bulk and hedge in long term alotments. Its more about open energy markets and NOTHING to do with the Green Energy debacle of the Ontario government. That is a separate kettle of fish. However, I look to the PCs to mislead the public and capitalise on the Green Anger, but it will not make a bit of difference to manufacturing. The PCs are just as lost as the Liberals and I have no faith in Hudak. Canada was never mired in Poverty through regulation of the industrial sector. Neither was the US. Nor any other industrial nation. Deregulation allows for Gold Rush symptons. Not cures. Or OIL BOOM if you prefer. Once a Mine goes empty and the boomtown turns to dust. The deregulation that Canada is experiences is to lower standards and checks on imported goods. Deregulating the securities market created the biggest recession since the great depression and costed BILLIONs. There is necessary regulation and unnecessary regulation that is politically driven. There is regulation that is a net benefit to the country. Not all deregulation is good. And it isn't always good to have an overinflated dollar.

I noticed that question II is still unresolved. Why is Bev Oda still in Harpers Cabinet?

Those wealthy countries have all adopted the same Liberal (neo Liberal) vs a "smallC" economic vision. Canada is no different, in that the Conservatives have embraced Liberal economic Policy and unregulated, deregulated, market based theory. For better or for worse, a choice has an impact. Accellerated decline for growth in another area/sector. Its as old as Sir John A who tossed out market based economics for small c Conservatism and nationalism. This was tested in the 1920s with open markets and little regulation of stocks. Had things continued to be unregulated and left to the markets , North America could well have revolted, as each boom and bust would oscillitate greater then the previous one. 50 years of relative stability was changed with the fall of communism and their are some who believe it was open freemarket that won the battle. whereas restricted, regulated, markets won the war. Since then, with the adoption of these Market based solutions from 1990s onwards the rush to deregulate will lead to more changes, challenges and larger boom and bust scenarios including unstability of exchange rates as shown previous in the stats canada report. I am not disagreeing with your small c. Things are what they are. I am suggesting that the US has moved to lower their currency through economic policy. The Canadian Currency has been cited as being artificially high because of the oil sector. The government can choose to ignore this, continue to deregulate the energy market, subsidize oil and rush a deal with china and ignore the short and long term environmental impacts in Alberta and the short and long term economic impacts in the ROC or they can address some of the foundations of the dollar and make changes accordingly. No one says any of this has to be done. But there is nothing wrong with the discussion and what goes on around it. Some would think Canada can be stronger with a regulated policy. And others don't. We have seen deregulation dominate for the past 20years. With that same deregulation and freemarket freedom , comes the decision to ignore national security. It is no different with anything else if markets are left to their own whim. SmallC vs small L neo Liberal policy which has been the mainstay of PC and Conservatives as well as Liberals over the past 20 years. One might believe the Liberals controlled the move a little more balanced. Others might contend its the wrong direction in its entirety. It is NOT unusual for a country to analyze its currency. It is NOT anti west, or leftwing. Is dutch disease real? Yes. Is it affecting industry? Apparently 30% Is the net benefit greater or lesser if we maintain the course or change directions.

To quote Heart of Darkness The horror, The horror, The horror

Well have to sit back and let Ford Nation rescue the Conservative numbers. Etobicoke is his stomping grounds.

Yes, it does, however, it is not lost on anyone that the vast manufacturing capacity has drastically hollowed out. Those value added manufacturing goods that were once exported as well as used domestically are now imported. As little as 6 years ago, there were 7 major White Product Manufacturers within 1hours drive of my location. Today there are zero. Operations were then Consolidated into a single warehouse facility. So while you look at exports , I look at the unemployment lines of the past 5 years. -------------------- Central Canada hit harder Quebec and Ontario make up Canada's industrial core. Outside these two provinces, there are generally proportionately fewer manufacturing jobs. In 2008, manufacturing jobs in Quebec and Ontario represented 14.0% and 13.5% of jobs, respectively, whereas the national average was 11.5% (Table 4). Together, these two provinces account for more than 1.4 million (73.3%) of the manufacturing jobs in Canada. Manitoba also has a significant manufacturing presence, with 11.3% of its jobs depending on it. The proportions for all the other provinces are below the national average. Saskatchewan, which is more natural resources-oriented, is the province with the fewest jobs in manufacturing (6.0%). In six provinces, at least one in ten manufacturing jobs were lost from 2004 to 2008.3 The largest drop was in Ontario, where 198,600 jobs, almost one in five (18.1%), disappeared in only four years. Significant drops were also seen in Newfoundland and Labrador (-18.0%), New Brunswick (-16.0%), Quebec (-13.8%), British Columbia (-11.3%) and Nova Scotia (-10.3%). ----------Prelude--------------- From 2004 to 2008, more than one in seven manufacturing jobs (322,000) disappeared in Canada. The majority came from Ontario, but drops were also evident in other parts on the country. In six provinces, at least 1 in 10 manufacturing jobs disappeared from 2004 to 2008. These losses occurred during a period of economic turbulence in the country as the exchange rate fluctuated widely

An Abacus poll, their first since January, conducted May 15-16: Cons: 37% NDP: 35% Lib: 17%

Thats only 1/4 of the story. China imports raw (Gold, Oil, Ore)and exports value added. Canada exports raw and imports value added. The list of Imports is nearly identical in order because that is the nature of trade. What we are seeing is Canada moving in the direction of the US where it imports more then it exports.

Just doing M for MONSTER, these people where all convicted, found guilty of henious crimes. Many at the time would have suggested they too had forfeited their right to live. These are from the top of my head in my recent memory, I can only imagine what I would find if I looked. Milgard, Morin, Marshall Donald, Marshall Simon, Mullins....

:lol:

You would be more comfortable if our legal system had a similar approach to sharia law and pashtoonwali.

Well said... and accurate. But now what lol...

You have now done some research, backtracked even more, backed down from your original position, clarified your answers to make them more inline to the argument at hand, which puts you back to the position held by most in this thread. Which makes me wonder, after editing your personal comments out... Who on earth are you trying to disagree with cause you have modified your answer to accomodate all the flaws of your previous posts. you are now left to hair splitting. If that is the disagreement you have and call this a left/right split... its a pretty fine line if you ask me. Bottom Line, yes Oil is currently affecting our exchange rate and manufacturing jobs. Now what do you intend to do about it if anything. That is all the discussion boils down to.

No you are backtracking again (thats alot of ground to recover). I reread your posts, there was no sarcasm in your argument. There were personal attacks and slurring but you contradicted yourself in your rush to attack.

Very clearly articulated..

This is where political beliefs get in the way of facts. I know that if roles were reversed and it was a Conservative using this economic analysis paper, the cheer leaders would be on board. I know that Economic Forums are having a really good discussion on this topic because they are NOT letting politics or beliefs get in the way. There is PLENTY of room to move regarding these reports. If I were to give an example of logic ... I can follow Argus discussion clearly. It can be debated, and it is based on data. That is what economists do. And no I don't believe this is a right/left issue or a Dividing Canada issue. It is an economic issue. There is merit to the discussion. What is interesting is that there is evidence to suggest there is a problem. I have NOT seen a solution. I have NOT seen a proposal from Mulcair, but I have seen alot of Fearmongering at the slightest whiff that unbridled unhindered, or questioning current oil development practices and its effects.. are going to split the country. Perhaps my biggest laugh was from Ethical Oil. I never saw a lamer piece from them. Its the first time I thought they went off their rocker. The sound like radicals. And it shouldn't be that way.

thats right and within 2 posts you have contradicted yourself.

There is so much non factual opinion, after the sentence of Textile Industry wages, that it makes for great talking points, driven by fantasy beliefs rather then economic activity. A stronger dollar...... When the British Pound is with worth $2 and the Canadian and US Dollar is at par with each other and a McDonald Cheeseburger is $1.00 here vs $2 or 1 pound in the UK its not cheaper. A new car is not cheaper today then when our dollar was lower. A New car today is marketed the same as it always has been, and that is based on what the Consumer is willing to pay for a brand. If no consumers are willing to pay then the price will fall. Therefore with a high dollar and those with a decent income will continue to pay full pop for vehicles if they want/desire them. What a High dollar does is allow consumers to spend money outside of the country and get a bigger bang for the buck.

True enough , but most of our exports are to the US market which is one reason why other currencies are often overlooked. It is also why with a high currency, we can get the most mileage from a resource based export economy vs a value added economy. Its why China is lining up for some cheap subsidized Canadian Oil. Its great while it lasts... and the tar sands will last a significant period of time. China needs oil... and Alberta will deliver. That said... the number of jobs created even though good paying, are about 10% created compared to the losses in a Province like Ontarios value added economy. British Columbia also suffers and would not likley have any overall net benefit from running a pipeline across their Province.

I couldn't agree more...