Vancouver King

Rats planning their exits as the Tory ship of state takes on water. Conservatives latest (final?) initiative of a negative ad campaign is unlikely to offset political damage from the continuing economic turmoil. Given that Canada historicaly trails Ameriica by 6 months coming out of recession, the calendar is now added to the long list of Harper enemies. Doubt on the effectiveness of the anti-Ignatieff message is confirmed by govt insiders peddling their resumes.

Conservative fortunes could be significantly altered by the effects of a soon to be unleashed media campaign against the new Liberal leader. CPC's braintrust must realize it's party's current predicament is far worse than the raw numbers would suggest and an ad blitz holds out the prospect of arresting the slide, just as the prior 2008 effort successfully defined Dion as weak so the scheduled muck might tarnish some of Ignatieff's current glow. The succesful anti-Dion campaign was directed at a not-ready-for prime-time neophyte and mounted in the context of a booming economy but this summer's effort will be aimed at a leader with much greater stature and, more important, the timing of the negative campaign will contrast the effort sharply against the preoccupation of 90% of voters - the sour economy. The knee-jerk reaction of reasonable Canadians will be a govt going negative in this economic context must now be devoid of answers to deal with recession. Whatever the policy solutions, blatant politicking will not be perceived as one of them. A final roll of the dice could very well seal Harper's fate.

Conservatives down to single digits in Quebec - would the last Tory in La Belle province please turn out the lights.

Latest from Nik Nanos which confirms other recent polls with one interesting exception: How to explain the significant uptick in Tory support in Ontario? Liberals: 36% CPC: 33 NDP: 15 Bloc: 9 Green: 7 http://www.nanosresearch.com/main.asp

A suckers rally if there ever was one. America's GDP contracts 6% and equities surge, the same day Chrysler Canada idles all plants the TSX rises 172 points. Lunacy. If your investments are in anything but cash and bonds you are asking for trouble.

Another installment of positive news for Liberals on the eve of their convention. Can Ignatieff do the impossible - move the Bloc off it's guaranteed 40% share of Quebec votes? The latest La Presse/CROP poll: In Quebec: Liberals: 37% Bloc: 31 CPC: 15 NDP: 12 http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...?hub=TopStories

Hmmm...the last two major polls showed Tories trailing the NDP in Quebec and BC. I guess if the next one measures Conservatives behind socialists in Ontario, it will be safe to schedule the wake.

The honeymoon is over. Liberal polling increases are now being earned as a consequence of Harper's fading performance. You could be right about Harper handing out resumes stateside. My impression is that internet polling favors Conservatives for the same reason Tories dominate radio call-in shows - better organization. I doubt the data is adjusted for any such bias. Obama's campaign demonstrated the polling importance of cellphone-only households stateside with an amazing 12% of all urban households now landline free. Here is the astonishing finding about those techno savvy, well off voters - 85% supported Obama.

The anti-Harper trend has not run it's course yet. The traditional slam that "Tory times are tough times" still has legs, paralleling the continuing downturn. Other on-going and exacerbating issues include the Mulroney/Schreiber inquiry, a constant public reminder of past Tory shenanigans and Afghanistan, with every body bag a stark reminder of that unwinable war. If Ignatieff can minimize damaging musings - like this week's reference to raising taxes - voters are ready to again trust his party with govt.

Ekos counted the chickens in Quebec and found there are now more NDP types there than Tories. Liberals now hold a 3 - 1 advantage in Quebec and the Ontario numbers show Conservatives in freefall - nothing will turn these firming numbers around in time to save Harper's govt - the next election is over.

Warm up the paper shredders, clear out the desks and for Liberals, ready the champagn on ice - the next election, as predicted, will be little more than an Ignatieff coronation. The latest Ekos poll: Liberals: 37% Conservatives: 30 NDP: 16 Green: 8 Bloc: 9 http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2009/04/16/...preference.html

Harper was asked directly during the last election campaign if Canadians were being ripped off at the pumps. He answered yes, consumers were being fleeced. Since then nothing, no follow up and no action to stop the ripoff. What does this say about our PM's priorities? Harper has been quoted to the effect on his readiness to do anything required to speed economic recovery. Why not action to get the heavy costs of these oil parasites off the backs of consumers?

All politicians prepped for prime time know not to declare their intention to raise taxes - no matter how much sense such a move might make. The unpleasent surprise of increasing revenue is best initiated after govt is sworn in. This is Ignatieff's first real mistake as Liberal leader.

Not exactly. The timing of the last election was decided in order to avoid the beginnings of recession and it's expected fallout for the govt. The economy would have been a far bigger factor if held in, say, January. Harper's dumb attempt at playing to his core by cutting pocket change off arts funding and the subsequent furor in Quebec prevented any gains there and rates as a huge reason Conservatives failed to win their cherished majority. The BQ were merely beneficiaries of this Harper mistake. You can't be serious. Recent polling consistently shows Harper in deep trouble in Quebec with experts like Chantal Hebert now predicting probable loss of all CPC seats there. La belle province is the least of Tory worries with party support now in freefall in Ontario - trailing Liberals by 13% in the latest sounding. What campaign strengths can Harper field in order to "win an election if it were held today"? Of your many skills and contributions, Dobbin, predicting election outcomes is not one of them.

It is not too early to speculate on the exact issue the opposition will use to pull the plug on Harper's govt. later this summer or early fall. EI will probably be it. Harper's failure to enact meaningful reforms - eligibility and delivery - will be a can't lose issue for Liberals in Ontario and Quebec.

Andrew Coyne, no friend of Liberals, made a good point this evening on CBC's At Issue panel. He suggests part of the controversy over Mulroney's place in the CPC relates to many Tory MP's using the issue of Mulroney's membership as a proxy for unrelated disatisfaction in Harper's leadership and PMO staff. After all, the thinking goes, the object of Harper's scorn delivered two majorities, a sad contrast to the freefall the party now finds itself in.

Poor old Monty. Extolling the virtues of 'free market capitalism' and at the same time approving taxpayer bailouts for private corporations bottom lines. Profits remain private and only the losses are to be socialized, right Monty?

Soon the nation's politics will be rid of the world's last neocon sociopath, done in ironically, by the same forces he's spent a career promoting - unbridled, unregulated financial parasitism.

Liberals should welcome this strategy by the CPC as it demonstrates and confirms the current desperation in Toryland. Thought you would have to wait until the next election to write Harper's obituary? This negative campaign will seal his fate as Canadians will not countenance such poliiticing in the context of serious economic dislocation. Tories will offer up smears in answer to continuing tough times. Harper desperately needs a shakeup of the status quo and is gambling negative ads might turn around his polling numbers. They won't and just like this month's Liberal convention will be a coronation for Ignatieff's leadership, so the next election will be little more than a coronation of Iggy becoming Prime Minister.

West Jet is poised to pass Air Canada in domestic passangers as the Calgary based airline has a 37% national market share this year. Air Canada's only advantage is in international flights.

The link leads to a Winnepeg Free Press apology. This one should be better: http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...27?hub=Politics "Seems Harper is getting into some trouble". With negative numbers twice Ignatieff's, that is an understatement. Harper needs to shake up the current losing fundamentals or start planning another career. Our PM suddenly doesn't look like a brilliant strategist when faced with an opponent other than the weakling Dion.

Nik Nanos details this interesting observation from the same March 21st poll - seems I wasn't alone switching loyalties a couple of months back: "Looking at the trend since the election, the key takeaway is the steady decline in support for the NDP with those former NDP voters moving to the Liberals. A key strategic trend for the past few years has been the shift between the division and unification of non-Conservative voters. In 2004, NDP supporters shifting to the Liberals resulted in the Liberal minority government. In 2006 and 2008, a split opposition allowed the Harper Conservatives to win. Polling since the 2008 election indicates there that is an inverse trend between Liberals and the New Democrat support."

Have faith, Harper has indicated he is willing to grab Obama's environmental coatails. If it takes the American president to create action here then so be it. First, of course, the new president must clean up the financial carnage left by the previous administration's neo-cons. Canadian conservatives should wish him well at this task - if he fails there will be no turn around here and diminished prospects for a Tory govt re-election.

My kingdom for a loaded Enclave.... Here's a recent development I found staggering: R.L. Polk, the automotive research company, says for the first time since the Second World War, the number of registered vehicles on America's roadways has actually declined - by an astonishing 4 million units. To those justifying bailouts as temporary help until the market rebounds back to 16 million annual sales, it's time to wake up - it's never going back there. The recession combined with high recent gasoline prices and growing awareness of the damage to the environment by fossil fueled vehicles is accomplishing the impossible: Breaking the century old love affair between Americans and their cars.

Complex derivatives spawned in a regulation-free market have given us the mother of all recessions and you yearn for another. Have you considered writing press relleases for AIG?