Vancouver King

It's a socialists' wet dream. Vast majorities in 27 countries express disapproval of the capitalist status quo. "Twenty years after the fall of the Berlin Wall, a new BBC poll has found widespread dissatisfaction with free-market capitalism. In the global poll for BBC World Service, only 11% of those questioned across 27 countries said that it was working well". In Canada that figure is shockingly low at 15% and might, belatedly, actually justify Harper's big govt record. This poll gives new credence to the NDP's interventionist policies. http://globescan.com/news_archives/bbc2009_berlin_wall/

The NDP is a shoe-in in New Westminster. At a well attended all candidates meeting last night the Tory candidate was a no-show. She knows whats coming. This BC by-election is a no brainer.

You can`t be serious. Legislating against attitudes is unworkable. Harper`s demonstrated racism is entirely appropriate to a group whose social outlook is frozen in the 1950`s. Turning Conservatives out of office is a superior option compared to your alternative: relying on Jack Layton`s good intentions.

Here`s a campaign issue for Liberals only to be used in the event that things turn nasty. Harper`s demonstrated racism in refusing help to stranded Canadians abroad. It is not coincidence that all victims are citizens of color. America sees fit to elect Obama president while Harper`s govt treats citizens of color as second class Canadians.

The green shoots of recovery are govt infrasturcture/bailouts/grants working their way through the economy. Once spent, nothing prevents the economy from slowing again. Example: cash for clunkers stateside. Funds ran out with one week left in August and, after an otherwise stellar month, Ford, for one, reports it's sales, post-clunker program, are a disaster. Artificial subsidies that rob future sales and must be paid for by future taxpayers is hardly evidence of recovery. Major US banks report profits generated from bailouts and the now-legal ability to keep toxic loans off their balance sheets. America remains an economic basket case, a lurching giant that unfortunately consumes 85% of our exports and until they get their act together no meaninful recovery will happen here.

Initial shots will be a campaign of TV ads by Liberals commencing after Labor Day. I'm guessing this will soften voters on the need for the forthcoming election by defining the shortcomings of Harper's efforts. What an interesting turn of events - Liberals able to afford taking the initiative.

Nik Nanos recently observed this same factor: "The sleeper issue in the next federal election might well be minority government fatigue. Prior to the first minority government in 2004, there was a sense that minority governments would have a positive influence on the political process as it would force parties and leaders to work together. Minority governemnt was also seen as a positive factor in the first Harper governemnt where Canadians could try an alternative to the Liberals while minimizing risks. However, the issue of continued minority governments in the context of an economic downturn, creates a different lens where voters may be more concerned about the distraction of brinkmanship politics and its possible negative impact on any minority government's ability to govern."

What a brillliant move, trot this unseemly reminder of Tory shenanigans before the public literally weeks before another election period is underway. Liberals can only hope the operatives responsible for the timing are put in charge of the Conservative campaign.

Blood stains on the walls still remain from the carving up of Dion. What is certain is this: If Harper fails to deliver a majority after successive minorities, he is finished in his party and, of more importance, his best before date in the eyes of the electorate will have passed.

Keep this date open: November 9, 2009. That's election day. Keep Novemeber 10th open too - that's when the knives are unsheathed over Harper's inability to deliver a majority gov't.

Nik Nanos might be onto something with this: "The sleeper issue in the next federal election might well be minority government fatigue. Prior to the first minority government in 2004, there was a sense that minority governments would have a positive influence on the political process as it would force parties and leaders to work together. Minority government was also seen as a positive factor in the first Harper government where Canadians could try an alternative to the Liberals while minimizing risks. "However, the issue of continued minority governments in the context of an economic downturn, creates a different lens where voters may be more concerned about the distraction of brinkmanship politics and its possible negative impact on any minority government's ability to govern." http://www.nikonthenumbers.com/topics/show/133

It remains to be seen if another election window as appealing to Liberals as this one presents itself in the fall. All data indicates the recession has bottomed and the coming upturn is likely to neutralize Liberal momentum. Between the Tory cheerleaders at CTV aiding Harper's repetition of the mantra "voters don't want an election", it appears Ignatieff's concern of a voter backlash on election timing is playing a big part in his deliberations. It shouldn't. Ask a 1,000 Canadians 24 hours before the constitution dictates an election is mandatory and the result would be 75% opposed to such a vote. People lump elections right in there with root canals and as Conservatives have demonstrated in the past, there is no punishment for going to the electorate in advantageous political circumstances. Liberals should fear they will look back in regret to this time when the portents for success, although not perfect, were far superior than battling a govt that has tamed recession.

Of late Toyota and Honda have had disatrous N. American sales - far worse sales falloffs than Ford. If this keeps up the question will have to be asked: why can't the Asians build cars that people want to buy?

Exactly what reason did Harper use to rush to the polls 8 months ago? Political instability? Clearly it was opportunism hoping to gain a majority before the current recession's formal arrival, in fact such was the haste and brazen nature of the call, Harper broke his own fixed election date law for what turned out to be a losing roll of the dice. Failure to properly reform EI, failure to get the cheques out, Tories inability to track finances and putting out of it's misery a govt lurching from scandal to scandal are all adequate grounds for calling an election. Tory times are tough times also has a certain resonance.

There is no guarantee a better window of oppourtunity for Liberals will open this fall - pull the plug and take the chance the Bloc won't back away from it's bluster.

Most likely you are right, big business will continue to drive the national agenda whether Ignatieff wins or not. The not so inconsequential difference is this: a Liberal govt is far less likely to impose social discrimination on minorities or impose a 1950's type chill on issues like abortion, law and order and soft drug use. I can stomach big banks and big oil drafting national budgets, I will never accept Harper's commitment to a Texas style social order.

An Easterner not from caucus - why not a captain of industry?

There is only one glimmer of salvation on the horizon for Tories and that will be the uptick associated with an economic rebound. Even using Flaherty's exaggerated optimism the positive political effects of recovery are at least 6-9 months away. Never mind the insignificant voter backlash by going early, engineer a parliamentary defeat that puts the country into an immediate campaign. Sooner than later equals Harper gone - and then a rejuvenated Liberal party can have it's way with the remaining mental midgets.

Instead of defining the opposition leader the ads are defining their own party as crass opportunists. The bad taste left with voters over the failed negative ad campaign will magnify political fallout from the current Raitt-gate controversy. Expect further deterioration in Conservative support.

Your inability to appreciate Raitt's insensitive scheming and flippant remarks is appropriate to a supporter of a party which reserves unto itself every type of gutter politics, be it tasteless negative TV ads or the financial destruction of it's opposition. Your hypocracy is insufferable and overwhelms that single moment of good humor you served up months ago when you declared, "I am not a partisan".

While you would wish it otherwise the above is not what the public will take away from this episode. When was the last time the word "sexy" appeared in the same sentence as "cancer"? This college dorm prattle is unbecoming a cabinet minister and the longer Harper defends the author of those crass words the greater the damage to his party.

This is a timely supplement to their just released party preference poll of June 5th. Nanos directly asked the question of Conservative negative ad campaign effectiveness and the answer appears clear: "Majority say Conservative ads ineffective." Ineffective: 53% Somewhat ineffective: 8% Effective 20% Somewhat effective: 15% Unsure: 4% From the who-would-have-thunk-it-department: Most convinced respondents were not in the Tory bastion of Western Canada but among voters in Ontario - by a 27% to 21% margin. http://www.nanosresearch.com/main.asp

These recent numbers are so encouraging it is now a given Liberals will go at the first available oppourtunity. Fall or Spring timing runs the risk that an economic rebound will enhance Tory support - the same electorate that has rejected negative TV ads is likely to reward the govt for pulling the nation out of recession.

And if that doesn't convince observers that Conservatives are on the wrong track maybe this latest sounding will: Nik Nanos' latest poll: Liberals - 37% Conservatives - 32 NDP - 16 Bloc - 8 Green - 7 Highlight: Tory support plummets by 5% in Ontario. If Ignatieff can engineer a parliamentary defeat the next general election result is now a forgone conclusion. http://www.nanosresearch.com

Of more significance is the measured loss of Conservative support (2%) despite weeks of relentless anti-ignatieff TV ads. The campaign to define the Liberal leader appears to be backfiring and this conclusion will soon be confirmed by additional polls. The combination of Flaherty casually mentioning the deficit will balloon 50% and his party's desperate attempt to change the nation's political focus to the opposition leader now appears an expensive failure. Common sense has prevailed - the effects of this recession demand a moratorium on blatant partisan politics.