Signals.Cpl

Do you actually think that a seat on the UNSC matters for anything other than maybe prestige? Russia has no need for an ally in the UNSC and neither does the US. All of the non-permanent members are trivial at best with regards to the UNSC and its votes.

Yes, based on evidence provided by the Ukrainians because even in their evidence they present the shooting as a mistake. Yes there is a potential upside, but there is also a very, very huge negative for them to do it... Maybe Russia would collapse in to civil war but also might not, there might be an individual or a group ready and capable to take the reins in the highly unlikely event that this was in fact an assassination attempt. Again though, it could force Europe to turn to other sources... in the long run it could end up being very bad for Russia. But the disadvantages greatly outweigh the potential benefits... Elaborate story? Would you consider an elected President being overthrown by a segment of his people, alienating the segment of his population that he drew support from, resulting in a civil war as elaborate? http://news.nationalpost.com/2014/07/17/malaysian-airlines-mh17-reported-crashed-just-after-rebel-leader-boasted-of-shooting-down-plane-we-warned-them-not-to-fly-in-our-skies/ they shot it down and when they realized they screwed up they started trying to cover their tracks.

I find it hilarious that you with your arrogance cant see that maybe a civil war in Russia is not in the best interest of say anyone? I mean what could go wrong with a civil war in the nation that holds the second largest if not the largest number of WMDs? If you knew what you were talking about you might post something other than comedy.

Sure it does...

Yep its always a great idea to wish for a civil war in a country with enough nukes to destroy the world a few times over... pure genius I can now see your superior intellect in action.

Yep, considering this is 1) not Rural Russia. 2) This is essentially an active war zone 3) Where did you get that Russians were robbing the corpses bind? Are you using sources from the Ukrainians who you seem to despise along with everyone else who is not of your haughty birth?

I seem to remember that the Germans had a similar opinion about the Russians as you do, didn't work out too well for them if I remember correctly... where did you get your assessment form? Tom Clancy?

No, they didn't shoot down the aircraft, all they seem to be interested in is presenting the evidence and distancing themselves from the incident. The Ukrainians are already viewed as the victims of the Russian aggression, shooting down an aircraft and making it appear as if it is a Russian or separatist action could make their case for assistance better but the outcome of someone finding out the truth would bring about their demise as suddenly they look like the bad guy and also give Russia an excuse to crush them with little to no complaints from the west. No it would not, but at the same time shooting down an civilian aircraft and killing 300 people who have nothing to do with the conflict ultimately means that they will face more sanctions, harsher sanctions and Ukraine may ultimately get more support from the west. What would Russia gain from shooting down an aircraft, killing all civilians on board and then having billions of dollars in aid flowing in Ukraine and modern equipment flowing in Ukraine from the west? How likely would that be when we consider that the west and the Russians are all looking at the conflict area? They may get support but when push comes to shove, one mistake and they go from victim to villain, material support from the west goes from possibility to never gonna happen... neither side had anything to gain from this, ultimately it seems to me that it was incompetence. Yeah but in this case, a good chunk of the freedom fighters seem to be Russian military and intelligence members. Ultimately though, in this case the separatists don't seem to be trying to terrorize anyone by shooting down an airplane full of innocent people they just shot down a plane without making sure its a military plane. It seems to me that you are trying to build an elaborate story around something that could be explain by incompetence or a simple mistake. The evidence was that they claimed to have shot down a Ukrainian military plane, and then subsequently upon realizing they shot down an airliner they tried to cover their tracks. So? Do you think we would be any better off if we were in the same political situation?

In this case it seems to me that the Russians and separatists are trying to create enough doubt to avoid taking responsibility. Ukraine has nothing to gain from framing Russia or the separatists and everything to lose if they fail to do it right, Russia has more to lose from trying to frame the Ukrainians than to gain from it, and the separatists are just an extension of Russia and its policy. In this case it seems that the separatists and Russia made a claim to shooting down a Ukrainian plane only to remove those claims once it became obvious they shot down the wrong plane.

Honestly though, I don't think it even matters because I highly doubt that Putin would fly through the area and even if he would I doubt anyone would know ahead of time unless it was specifically planned by someone in his inner circle trying to get rid of him but thats way out there so... In this case it seems that we should avoid creating a conspiracy theory around something that is most likely incompetence or lack of intelligence.

Whoever it is, I don't know but I'm sure someone will grab the reins and might use it as an excuse to take all of Ukraine.

Was it a no fly zone?

There is no advantage, for any of them unless they have set up the situation very carefully but even then if found out the repercussions would be bad. Most likely thing is that the separatists saw a plane, jumped to the conclusion it was a Ukrainian plane and shot it down.

What did you meet all 150 million of them? The same can be said about Americans, Canadians, British etc...

Most likely theory is that the separatists shot the plane down thinking it is a Ukrainian military plane.

Really? Or is it your sense of superiority making that assumption?

Because thats what they see from the news, and they are already fired up over Ukraine, easier to believe that once you already think Ukraine is the bad guy.

Watch Russian news about pro-Russian meeting. Per million of population those meeting can attract billions of people... whats your point?

And where can I see some of the experts? This is all fine but how do you prove that? Besides does it even matter? If it was the separatists operating a captured Ukrainian system with a crew of former conscripts or deserters the blame lies squarely with Russia, if it is a Russian crew and a Russian weapon system being under nominal separatists command puts the blame squarely on Russia. In most armies with conscription basic training lasts 2-3 months with trade training lasting a few more months. Now what do we need to operate such a system? What is "qualified job"? I understand an officer is in overall command but ultimately it is likely a number of NCM's in the technician seat. And I am sorry but what is your obsession with exercises? What do you define as an exercise? Unless it was already in the region. What about from a guarded base inside separatist territory or near said territory? 1) Russia has the spare parts. 2) Russia has the equipment. 3) Munitions are usually found near the platform that uses them. 4) Disabled could range from hiding the keys to gutting the system requiring total rebuild and anywhere in between. Not arguing that, but then it is also more demoralizing for the separatists to keep shooting down ukrainian planes with Ukrainian weapon systems. Again wether it was a Russian system or a captured Ukrainian system there is no doubt the separatists shot it down and Russia is still guilty as hell.

This seems to me as a lame attempt to blame someone else for the actions of the separatists, doubtful anyone knew Putin was flying through the area that is if was real to begin with rather than an after thought to place the blame on Ukraine or their supporters. They have nothing to gain from shooting down a commercial liner nor do they have any reason to shoot down Putin, if he dies his successor will have a casus belli against Ukraine and if they were to fail it would also have virtually the same reason. The separatists thought they were shooting down a big juicy Ukrainian target, shot it down and then realized it was a civilian liner and thus are trying to deflect some of the sh*t storm by blaming anyone and everyone but themselves and Russia.

Care to share a source? So are you saying that Ukraine's military is not involved?

Wow, they cant be professional now can they?

I dont think so, that would still be a war crime and someone would still hold them accountable even if it is Putin as a pretext to occupy the region specifically or Ukraine as a whole not that I think the Russians care about a justification but it never hurts.

Yes they do discuss that, and BTW there is a translated version of the potion in question: http://news.nationalpost.com/2014/07/18/mh17-scene-was-a-sea-of-women-and-children-tape-reveals-moment-rebels-realized-jet-wasnt-military-ukraine-says/ Let me see if I can summarize your positions: 1) The crew of the weapon system were Russians because none of the separatists knew how to operate the system in question. My answer is that it is likely that over entire territory of the separatists there would be at least a few conscripts who were trained on that system be it a year, five years of fifteen years ago so it does not necessarily mean that it is a Russian crew, doesn't mean it is not either but cant prove it one way or the other. 2) You seem to assert that the weapon system was Russian and that it was and is impossible for the Ukrainian military to lose said weapon system and its ammunition and/or the weapon system was captured but it was disabled. My answer is that: 1) Ukraine has lost plenty of equipment, weapons, munitions and vehicles to the separatists to at least make it a little believable for them to have captured the system more or less intact. 2) If it was disabled before capture it could be repaired, and being overrun may mean that destroying munitions is lower on the priorities than say staying alive therefore if the vehicle was captured the munitions most likely will be close by. I dont think there is much doubt that it is the separatists who did it so I don't see why you are arguing.

And can that expansion make up any shortfalls for the coming winter?