angrypenguin

Downsides of being buzzed. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_Canadian_federal_election,_2008 Can someone please let me know T-1 before the election, a polling firm got the Conservative # right. "Asking Canadians". What is this firm? I don't think it exists anymore?

I was just looking at poll #'s. In 2008, Angus Reid was the closest to the results (T-1 day). In 2011, Nanos was the closest. Weird. (in some ways)

So my take on this is if they're doing it, we better as well!

Why didnt EKOS release data today? GRR.

That's Trudeau all up.

Federal tax revenue has gone up as declared by Oliver when they announced the surplus. IIRC

How anyone can vote Liberal is beyond me. This pretty much sums it up. "Ontario now qualifies for equalization payments, confirming its shift from “have” to “have-not” status" http://business.financialpost.com/fp-comment/wynnes-losing-performance-how-ontarios-growth-killing-policies-are-sinking-the-economy

To be fair, every party has their scandal. Yesterday a Liberal candidate resigned. I'm not too sure about the "switching" though. The Angus poll anyways indicates the Liberals and the NDP are tied. I wish people would do their research and make up their mind. (emphasis on "do their research"). The "game day" decision....sigh, what a waste of a vote.

Yes, while it's the case that they are within the margin of errors, the only thing I'm looking at (and care for) is who is ahead. Each poll has their own methodology, and if I stare at Forum/Ekos/Angus, they all indicate a clear lead for the Conservatives. The odd ball? Nanos. They're all over the place when it comes to NDP/Liberal #'s, but I don't really care. So for me, the question I ask myself every morning is whether or not the Conservatives are ahead. And based on now 4 polls, they are.

This greatly saddens me. I am reading the Angus #'s right now and I read this. :( Three-in-ten (31%) say they’ll make up their mind in the last week of the campaign. This equates to one-in-five (18%) eligible voters overall Another nearly two-thirds (32%) won’t finally make up their minds until just before or on voting day. This equates to another one-fifth (19%) of the overall electorate, as seen in the graph below:

When I looked at the Nanos #'s for the 2011 election and the 2008 election, the Conservative % have always been below the others. If I account for the 1.1% gap as per last night's #'s, and I add say 3% to the Conservative #, it would bring that in line with EKOS and Forum for who's "clearly" (I'm using this word lightly, but the newspapers aren't) winning. That's what I was getting at. But I see your point.

I knew that bugger was old, I forgot he was THAT old. As far as what would have happened? I still think since the formation of the PC party, Harper would have eventually been able to topple him, although it might have taken a few more years. *forming of the PC party was useful since it combined the "right" vote.

You mean the EKOS ones from last week? It's on their front page. Everyone went...EKOS numbers have to be wrong, now the FORUM numbers also indicate a clear Conservative lead. Nanos #'s also indicate this, as we all know the Conservative #'s for Nanos are usually behind by a few points.

Oh I completely and wholeheartedly agree with you. But for me, as we get closer and closer to Oct 19th anyways, I want to see how Canadians are planning to vote on a night by night basis. The EKOS/Forum polls give me that data, and it's backed up by Nanos which is showing a Conservative lead, so it tells me that Canadians have "wanted change", "came to their senses" (in my opinion), and then went..."ehh, devil I know and all" or "omg we don't want to plunge Canada's economy back to the stone ages"

I don't get your point. I read that and went....ehh? meh?

Keep in mind 308 / CBC poll tracker (at least this is how I read the data) uses cumulative data from the last little bit, as opposed to nightly tracking. I can't get a good sense of what people are voting using that data source as a result. If I want "real time" data, I have to look at the nightly polls, and not use aggregate data from the last week or whatever.

I noticed this wrt the 2011 #'s. Nanos was definitely a few points behind. EKOS was closer, but then again the data I can glean off of EKOS is much better. (age, education etc). I don't get any of that with Nanos. I use the Nanos data to track voting intentions by regions though. And the blues are definitely on their way up in Quebec

Agreed. I think the EKOS poll will be released today. Any idea why the spread in the Nanos poll is consistently smaller than FORUM/EKOS?

HOLY JEEZ. The world just ended and hell froze over. Take a look at the comments on the Toronto Star. What did I just read??????????????? http://www.thestar.com/news/federal-election/2015/10/01/justin-trudeau-and-tom-mulcair-battle-each-other-as-stephen-harper-pulls-ahead-walkom.html

Just thought I'd throw this in there. This is from a while back. http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2015/09/a-mid-campaign-check-up/ Look at the shift in the youngun vote! Conservatives were last (out of the big 3), now they are first! Young people understand the economy?? Or perhaps they don't want to carry the debt later? Stumps me!

Forum Research and Ekos now show what the most likely outcome will be. Conservatives at around 35% and the NDP/Libs at around 28%. Nanos's gap isn't as big, but today's headlines have, for the most part, regarding this election, mentioned that the Conservatives are clearly ahead. So...I'm not too convinced that I buy your argument, but it is a solid one. The polls in 2011 were showing roughly the same, although the Liberal decimation...no one was expecting that!

Ehh, that's where I disagree. A large majority of people don't even bother to vote. The polls shifted quite a bit at T-3, T-2, T-1 days before the 2011 election. I bet you if you ask people what strategic voting is, they'd be confused.

But Ontario is doing so well!!

For the record, I knew what happened, I just didn't know the word "Auschwitz"

Harper strikes me as a Chretien sort of guy. When did Chretien retire? Harper is only 56.