SpankyMcFarland

I never cease to be impressed by how resilient political leaders are. The low they experience in defeat must be extraordinary. You’re going from a life where you’re the focus and hope of all around you to being the despised and, even worse, pitied former leader subject to the unvarnished opinions of all your old comrades. It surprises me so few commit suicide. Indeed most bounce back impressively. While I’ve no predictions to make I’d say Carney has less to lose, obviously. This was a late vocation for him, un beau risque. For Poilievre it is his life’s work.

This wouldn’t be like Trump or Brexit where there was a neck and neck race and the polled lead went back and forth. The polls have consistently predicted a Liberal win. If they get this wrong I’ll lose faith in them, which is not to say there’s something nefarious going on here. I believe that, like scientists, pollsters want to be right above all things but they’ve had a problem with polling right-wing voters for at least a decade now. They seem harder to reach and more reluctant to give their candid opinion.

People may be backing the Tories but from what I can make out the actual odds quoted still favour the Liberals with both US and British bookies. They are also heavily favoured to win a majority: https://www.oddsshark.com/politics/canadian-federal-election-odds Gamblers must feel the long odds given on a Tory win are generous, ie a Tory win is more likely than the odds suggest.

Another Globe story about another rift with a PC premier. There are a lot of allegations in here, some featuring Jenni Byrne. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-poilievres-nova-scotia-campaign-stop-highlights-growing-rift-between/

If the Tories win then a lot of pollsters need to hang up their boots or fundamentally change their methodology. Although it is a fairly close election, they’ve been generally forecasting a Liberal win all through it.

Carney is a PM in an election. As a candidate he’d be better off publicizing every disgusting insult Trump levels at Canada because it’s clear that such revelations stoke his side. But he’s also the PM trying to negotiate with this maniac and as a close friend and neighbour we are exquisitely vulnerable to retaliation.

What I think should be said is this. Homelessness comes in many forms. The worst is living unhoused on the street. Clearly, America has a great deal of the worst kind. Regarding less severe forms, there is considerable variability in how the numbers can be interpreted.

Bear in mind we are in an utterly unprecedented situation where revealing every grotesque thing the US president says could provoke him further. These are not normal times.

What I illustrated for a start was that those numbers do not reflect the number of people per capita living rough on the streets. Britain’s numbers there are not in America’s league.

The numbers speak for themselves.

How is homelessness being defined there and is it the same in every country? I see a lot of Americans living in their cars for example. The most visible type is unsheltered, ie living rough on the street. Here’s a graph from the FT. A lot of UK homelessness is people in temporary accommodation whereas the US has an awful lot of hard-core homelessness.

I see he’s ranting about the ‘China loving Wall Street Journal’ now.

Any truth to this story about PP struggling in his own riding? Whatever about that I think it’s fair to say the Tories have had some serious divisions in this election, especially in Ontario: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-federal-election-2025-pierre-poilievre-seat-ottawa-carleton-riding/

Watching Poilievre in Halifax this am. He looks rattled and stumbled over his lines more than usual. A modern campaign is a constant trial, even one of sensible length as we have in Canada. Nobody is fully prepared for it.

Do politicians often visit ridings late in the campaign they haven’t a hope in just to freak the other guys out? I see Carney was in Trois-Rivières yesterday, a seat not won by the federal Liberals since 1980.

It wouldn’t make much difference to my life. I doubt a PM Poilievre would launch trade wars across the globe or start fighting the deep state. If anything, my taxes would probably go down.

I bought a laptop today. All that amazing technology cost about as much as my grocery bill. The margins in manufacturing are very small these days.

Private care is coming, folks.

Yahoo, Major Carney, the cavalry are a-comin’ Yep, he has to be honest… https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trump-canada-politics-1.7516951

Given that this geezer golf ad does not feature Poilievre, the Tories’ own polling must show that older men aren’t as keen on them or the leader as they usually are. https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/last-week-ad-campaigns-conservative-ads-no-pierre-poilievre-1.7514897

So are pollsters deliberately falsifying their data in Canada? That would leave a yawning opportunity for firms that aren’t.

Mulroney grew up in a French-speaking town. It would be weird if his French wasn’t better than these guys.

In fairness, the Tories seem to have done an excellent job maximizing their vote among people on the right. We’ll just have to wait and see it if it’s enough.

Again, we’ve seen multiple wins for right-wing parties in other countries when the polls were against them. The Liberal support is wide but soft. Every Liberal on TV is telling people they must get out and vote, ie ignore the polls. In terms of message, I think affordability has been underemphasized by the Tories. The crime/drugs/prison stuff is not going to swing centrist voters when the entire country is being threatened by a foreign criminal and the base vote is maxed out already. Tying a healthy economy into being able to resist Trump would have been my message, eg Canada Strong. I see a geezer-aimed Tory golf ad on the lost decade that doesn’t feature Poilievre. They must be hearing something about his favourability. Winning arguments isn’t the same as winning people over.

What about people who won’t bother voting because it’s a ‘sure thing’ for the Liberals?