A Fall 2007 Federal Election?

[Michael Bluth]

Here is what Harper said about fixed election dates.

Confidence is whatever the government says it is.

So no citations from some of the 'several' articles in the media?

No example of a Government going to the GG and claiming to have lost the confidence of the House without having lost an actual vote?

[jdobbin]

The Liberals have a leader who doesn't consider it important to talk in Canada's (majority) language.

Language skills have not affected Bush's abilities to win elections. He had one heck of a good gaffe this week. He has one every week, it seems.

Edited September 27, 2007 by jdobbin

[Fortunata]

QUOTE(jbg @ Sep 27 2007, 07:39 AM) *

The Liberals have a leader who doesn't consider it important to talk in Canada's (majority) language.

Language skills have not affected Bush's abilities to win elections. He had one heck of a good gaffe this week. He has one every week, it seems.

He thinks everyone should speak American I guess. He just can't get it through his head that we have two languages here, French being one of them.

[kengs333]

The Liberals are going to get blown to pieces. Dion was a bad choice. The party needs to realize that it's a national party and they can't keep on trying to curry favour with Quebec by electing French-Catholic leaders.

[jdobbin]

The Liberals are going to get blown to pieces. Dion was a bad choice. The party needs to realize that it's a national party and they can't keep on trying to curry favour with Quebec by electing French-Catholic leaders.

I think you forget which leader has been spending money in Quebec to curry favour: Harper.

[Michael Bluth]

The Liberals are going to get blown to pieces. Dion was a bad choice. The party needs to realize that it's a national party and they can't keep on trying to curry favour with Quebec by electing French-Catholic leaders.

They really can't see the forest for the trees on this one.

Quebecois respect Harper for understanding their aspirations.

He is seen as a preferable Federalist option over Dion, who can't connect with average Quebecois or their dreams and aspirations.

Better learn in a hurry or he'll be looking for a new job.

[August1991]

Quebecois respect Harper for understanding their aspirations.

He is seen as a preferable Federalist option over Dion, who can't connect with average Quebecois or their dreams and aspirations.

Not really.

First, Harper is lucky. He's in the right place at the right time. For several reasons, the nationalist side of Quebec is changing and Harper is there now to pick it up. Second, Harper has been agile in making all the right moves to pick up those votes. I'm impressed how he has not made a false step. Third, Mulroney was a precursor who has made Harper's success possible.

Dion's press in Quebec has been more harsh but just as innaccurate as Harper's press in Ontario. These things change.

Better learn in a hurry or he'll be looking for a new job.

We all like drama, journalists more than most, but there'll be no drama in this federal Liberal Party - except maybe from Kennedy and that would be suicidal. Neither Ignatieff nor Rae are going to do in Dion unless Dion chooses to give up.

I happen to think Dion could bring alot to federal politics and I'm still inclined to think that he'll be around for awhile yet. Modern politics are based on lowering expectations. Both Harper and Dion play this game well. (Layton doesn't.)

----

To retrn to the OP, a Fall election? How can we not have one?

First, the NDP. Of course they want one. The polls are OK and Layton is convinced that his Quebec/urban strategy will deliver. Moreover, he thinks that he's doing the right thing since a campaign and an election will return Canada to its peaceful roel in the world - and hasten our exit from Afghanistan.

Second, the Tories. Of course Harper wants an election. He suspects (knows?) that the polls are inaccurate. Harper believes that Quebec is in flux and he has a good chance of getting seats there. In any case, the Liberals have money problems and a weak leader. Their policies are not in place. PM Chretien, in a similar position but avec majority, didn't hesitate to call an election.

Third, the Bloc. Why would Duceppe want an election given the PQ's third place and current polls? Well, if the BQ supports the Tories once again, it will become even more irrelevant. It has to state its case. In addition, Duceppe is 60 and he'll never be PQ leader or PM of Quebec. He's had it. (There's a curious frisson occurring in pequiste circles now. A howling at the moon.)

Fourth, the Liberals. I think Dion sincerely believes that if he gets into a campaign, people in both French and English Canada will see him for what he is and they'll understand that he'd be a good PM. There's an admirable touch of naivety in Dion. In practical terms, Dion thinks that an election would be the best way to solve his image problems.

So, there you have it. Each party for its own reasons wants to have an election- despite the polls showing that we'll just wind up where we were before.

It's very much like 1965 - or August 1914.

Edited September 28, 2007 by August1991

[Leafless]

I think you forget which leader has been spending money in Quebec to curry favour: Harper.

Harper is simply playing conventional politics. He has NO choice.

Is there something wrong with buying votes in Quebec like the Liberals have always done.

[Canuck E Stan]

Is there something wrong with buying votes in Quebec like the Liberals have always done.

Harper's infringing on the Natural Governing Party's way of doing politics........it's not fair.

[jdobbin]

Harper is simply playing conventional politics. He has NO choice.

Is there something wrong with buying votes in Quebec like the Liberals have always done.

There might be for people in the west who support the Tories. They broke up the party once because of it.

[kengs333]

Harper is simply playing conventional politics. He has NO choice.

Is there something wrong with buying votes in Quebec like the Liberals have always done.

Harper has to over compensate for the fact that he and his party stand for English-speaking

western Canada by dumping money into the province and making promises/statements to/about Quebec that the Liberals never would have done. The Liberals try to maintain favour in the province by creating a party that has a strong Francophone flavour. With Trudeau, the Liberals have always had a Catholic, Quebec-born (except Turner) leader. That's why they chose Dion; but Dion has no charisma, and he comes across as a weakling. The party is in dire straights, and may just implode if there is an election this fall; that's okay, though, the Greens are there to pick up the pieces if that should happen.

[jdobbin]

Harper's infringing on the Natural Governing Party's way of doing politics........it's not fair.

The last time the Tories tried to curry favour in Quebec, they ended up with two seats in Parliament.

[jdobbin]

The Greens are there to pick up the pieces if that should happen.

I think you seriously overestimate the Green Party and their ability to win seats.

[sharkman]

There might be for people in the west who support the Tories. They broke up the party once because of it.

Nah, we love him too much to stay mad at him, after all he may come through with a majority if Dion keeps helping out in Quebec. Liberals are in single digits in some areas says the NP.

[kengs333]

I think you seriously overestimate the Green Party and their ability to win seats.

I think you seriously underestimate the Green Party and their ability to win seats.

[jdobbin]

I think you seriously underestimate the Green Party and their ability to win seats.

I have no doubt they will increase their popular support. But it just isn't concentrated in a few areas to win seats. Even Elizabeth May without a Liberal candidate running against her will find it hard to defeat other mainline parties.

[jdobbin]

Nah, we love him too much to stay mad at him, after all he may come through with a majority if Dion keeps helping out in Quebec. Liberals are in single digits in some areas says the NP.

What did the last majority government for the Tories achieve? It cost the west the CF-18 contract despite a higher technical and lower cost bid. Even now Mulroney thinks that deal was the right thing to do. Perhaps Harper should be reminded of why he left the Tories to join the Reform party. It seems he is following Mulroney down the same part that eventually leads to western alienation.

[Michael Bluth]

What did the last majority government for the Tories achieve?

It created the business conditions for the current economic boom we enjoy today.

The signing of the FTA and NAFTA.

Elimination of the Manufacturer's Sales Tax.

Many of the evironmental initiatives that lead to Mulroney being named the greenest Prime Minister.

[jbg]

I think you forget which leader has been spending money in Quebec to curry favour: Harper.

And what PM, going to the Great Trunk Railway, hasn't?

[geoffrey]

What did the last majority government for the Tories achieve?

Got Mulroney voted greenest PM by the greenest of green Canadians.

[jdobbin]

And what PM, going to the Great Trunk Railway, hasn't?

If Harper thought so much of Mulroney, he probably would have stayed in the party back then. He didn't. I think he joined the Reform in part because of alienation of the west. Now, he is following the same path and I don't think he can satisfy both provinces.

Edited September 28, 2007 by jdobbin

[jdobbin]

Got Mulroney voted greenest PM by the greenest of green Canadians.

I think I have mentioned that if Harper was to ever model himself on Mulroney, it should be in regards to the environment.

The ultimate legacy of Mulroney though was two seats in the Commons and the eventual death of the PCs.

[kengs333]

I have no doubt they will increase their popular support. But it just isn't concentrated in a few areas to win seats. Even Elizabeth May without a Liberal candidate running against her will find it hard to defeat other mainline parties.

I disagree. There are some ridings in BC where the greens did exceptionally well, and if she wanted to run in one of them, I think she would win, or at least come very close, even if there was a Liberal candidate. But she wants to run in Nova Scotia, believing that raising the party's profile there is more important.

[maldon_road]

I disagree. There are some ridings in BC where the greens did exceptionally well, and if she wanted to run in one of them, I think she would win, or at least come very close, even if there was a Liberal candidate. But she wants to run in Nova Scotia, believing that raising the party's profile there is more important.

The only chance that the Greens have of winning a seat is if and when we introduce PR at the federal level.

[jbg]

And what PM, going to the Great Trunk Railway, hasn't (spent disproportionate money in Quebec)?

If Harper thought so much of Mulroney, he probably would have stayed in the party back then. He didn't. I think he joined the Reform in part because of alienation of the west. Now, he is following the same path and I don't think he can satisfy both provinces.

You didn't respond to my post earlier, that just about every Canadian PM, except maybe Borden, catered to Quebec, since in terms of votes Quebec seems to be Canada's "swing" province. The Brits' severance of Canada from direct rule, from what I understand, was partially motivated by the insistence, by the "responsible governments" of the day, to spend money on Quebec pork barrel infrastructure rather than contributing to the defense needs that Canadian traders with the Confederate States (the seceded US south) were inflaming.