Canada is on the right track!

[betsy]

6 out of 10 Canadians believe that Canada is on the right track. That's according to the poll that was discussed on CTV's Question Period today.

Therefore, 6 out of 10 Canadians have a positive view of Harper's government. And this is inspite of the Afghan war casualties.

What more when McKay really tackle the job of communicating and explaining the importance of the mission.

Harper is doing very well as a leader.

Edited September 3, 2007 by betsy

[gc1765]

6 out of 10 Canadians believe that Canada is on the right track. That's according to the poll that was discussed on CTV's Question Period today.

Therefore, 6 out of 10 Canadians have a positive view of Harper's government.

I think Canada is on the right track...but I think Canada has been on the right track since before Harper. How does that give me a positive view of Harper's government?

[betsy]

I think Canada is on the right track...but I think Canada has been on the right track since before Harper. How does that give me a positive view of Harper's government?

If majority of Canadians believed that Canada was on the right track before Harper....Martin would still be sitting as Prime Minister today.

[gc1765]

If majority of Canadians believed that Canada was on the right track before Harper....Martin would still be sitting as Prime Minister today.

If you ask me, if it weren't for Chretien's legacy, Martin would be PM today.

But hey, using your logic, if the majority of Canadians believed that Canada was on the right track since Harper...he wouldn't be sitting in the low 30's in the polls, tied with the Liberals.

Edited September 3, 2007 by gc1765

[mikedavid00]

6 out of 10 Canadians believe that Canada is on the right track. That's according to the poll that was discussed on CTV's Question Period today.

Therefore, 6 out of 10 Canadians have a positive view of Harper's government. And this is inspite of the Afghan war casualties.

What more when McKay really tackle the job of communicating and explaining the importance of the mission.

Harper is doing very well as a leader.

I think people are confusing 'our economy is good right now' with 'canada is on the right track'.

[Higgly]

Right. And the right track would be...?

[Canuck E Stan]

Right. And the right track would be...?

One place they're on the right track is in expense claims among prominent staffers. The voters this fall will love this aspect of the government.

Adding up claims over a 12-month period, Harper's chief of staff, executive assistant, communications director and press secretary reduced spending on hospitality meals and refreshments ($5,438) to almost one-quarter the annual tab for Martin's staffers ($20,409).

John Williamson, federal director of the Canadian Taxpayers Federation, said that move triggered a "monumental change" in wining and dining among the political elite.

Williamson said the current PMO likely laid down the law to avoid embarrassing spending scandals.

"In Ottawa there is a transformation -- people don't want to be nailed for overspending, and that's benefiting taxpayers," he said. "At the end of the day, it's our money. There is a chill, but I'm a taxpayers advocate, and in this case, a chill is a good thing."

[old_bold&cold]

Being on the right track does not have to mean you agree with all the things the government does. This kind of question more or less implies that you approve of the over all direction things are going. It does not mean you agree with all the minor things happening. I may well have differing opinions on some things but they may not rank very high on my must be list. This is why I thenk that the people of Canada say they agree with the direction things are going, but still not support the government in the polls.

What alot of this does say though is that the support for the other parties like the Liberals and NDP is probably ripe for the picking. So if these parties force an election they had better be sure they have a leader that will show strong and well thought out platforms, because at the first sign of weakness and they will plummet int he polls. Butthis can also be said of the CP's as well, but when they do have the support of their general diirections, it is a lot harder for the opposition to do this. In this kind of environment the use of back room politics will not be looked at kindly, and to me that says the Liberals will need to really think twice before they take on such a thing.

[jdobbin]

expense claims among prominent staffers[/url]. The voters this fall will love this aspect of the government.

Every time we see one of these expense reports, we later find out the government tries to hide actual expenses paid such as in the case of MPs flights. Quiet simply, it is hard to believe the reports anymore.

[jdobbin]

6 out of 10 Canadians believe that Canada is on the right track. That's according to the poll that was discussed on CTV's Question Period today.

Therefore, 6 out of 10 Canadians have a positive view of Harper's government. And this is inspite of the Afghan war casualties.

What more when McKay really tackle the job of communicating and explaining the importance of the mission.

Harper is doing very well as a leader.

60% on the right track. 33% is what the Tories have for popular support. It is obvious that not every one is crediting Harper with things being on the right track. Who knows...maybe some people their NDP, BQ or Liberal MP is responsible for things being on the right track.

[Canuck E Stan]

60% on the right track. 33% is what the Tories have for popular support. It is obvious that not every one is crediting Harper with things being on the right track. Who knows...maybe some people their NDP, BQ or Liberal MP is responsible for things being on the right track.

Your constant reference to the popular support number is the wrong number to be looked at. The more important number is the popular number of the leader of that party, according to Nik Nanos, president and CEO of SES,the most accurate polling firm in Canada.

"Watching the leadership numbers is the best indicator of what's going to happen," says Nanos.

Edited September 3, 2007 by Canuck E Stan

[jdobbin]

Your constant reference to the popular support number is the wrong number to be looked at. The more important number is the popular number of the leader of that party, according to Nik Nanos, president and CEO of SES,the most accurate polling firm in Canada.

And with the latest poll numbers (SES September 3 2007) for the leaders,it says it all.

Stephen Harper 42%

Stephane Dion 17%

Liberal leader Paul Martin was always ahead of Stephen Harper in terms of popular support.

At one time in the 1980s, Ed Broadbent was the most popular leader. It doesn't always translate into seats.

Nik Nanos said nothing about Harper being able to turn this popular support into a majority.

Here's what Nanos said.

At this point in time Stephen Harper personally may be in majority territory but his party is not.

Clearly, since SES is the most accurate polling firm in the country, he must be right that the Tories are not in majority territory, right?

[Canuck E Stan]

My apologies Dobbin, those numbers are not the latest poll numbers from SES.

Nanos's blog puts today's date on every page he has on his blog.

Those numbers were from March/April of this year.

The latest from SES-August 14/07 were:

Harper: 31

Dion: 23

Layton: 18

Duceppe: 6

May: 5

[jdobbin]

My apologies Dobbin, those numbers are not the latest poll numbers from SES.

Nanos's blog puts today's date on every page he has on his blog.

Those numbers were from March/April of this year.

The latest from SES-August 14/07 were:

Harper: 31

Dion: 23

Layton: 18

Duceppe: 6

May: 5

Ah, no problem. I see what you mean about the date at the top of the page.

[AndrewL]

6 out of 10 Canadians believe that Canada is on the right track. That's according to the poll that was discussed on CTV's Question Period today.

Therefore, 6 out of 10 Canadians have a positive view of Harper's government. And this is inspite of the Afghan war casualties.

What more when McKay really tackle the job of communicating and explaining the importance of the mission.

Harper is doing very well as a leader.

Canad is just a gluttonous nation heavily invested in the consuming of the planet. Individually we are the most unethical people on the planet - measured in the size of our ecocidal footprint.

Andrew

[Keepitsimple]

Support for Harper's leadership should be encouraging for Conservatives. I think party popularity lags behind for three reasons:

1) The demise of the PC's, Reform and Alliance has taken their toll with regards to what it means to be a Conservative. There is a "re-branding" process that is going on that has been defining all over again what it is to be a Conservative.

2) Throughout the first 10 years of the last Liberal lock on power, they rightly scoffed at the disfunctional Right. As the Conservatives got their act together in recent years, Liberals tried to brand them as a far-right extremist party.

3) When Harper came to power, the Liberals launch a relentless attack on him - trying to demonize him as someone who would destroy Canada and take away Human Rights.

Given the above, "re-branding" the Conservatives as an effective center-right party has been like turning around the Queen Mary.....but slowly and surely it's happening. The longer the Conservatives stay in power, the more that the public is accepting that they are what them seem - a center-right party that seeks to be as inclusive as possible but governs on fairly clear principles.

I think we are approaching a tipping-point where the Liberal fear-mongering with regards to screams of Conservatives being far-right will finally resonate with the people for what they are - the rantings of a party that has lost its way, and a party that lacks leadership.

[jdobbin]

I think we are approaching a tipping-point where the Liberal fear-mongering with regards to screams of Conservatives being far-right will finally resonate with the people for what they are - the rantings of a party that has lost its way, and a party that lacks leadership.

I'm not sure exactly what tipping point you are referring to when the Tories have not budged in the polls.

[kimmy]

Liberal leader Paul Martin was always ahead of Stephen Harper in terms of popular support.

I don't think that's the case. I believe that in the lead-up to the election, and particularly during the campaign, there was a very large shift from Martin to Harper.

At some point between the Stronach defection and the election, the perception of Harper as his opponents portrayed him (scary, etc) began to lose traction with the public. Somewhere along the way, and I can't guess at an exact time or event that might have changed things, Harper started winning the battle to define himself rather than be defined by his opponents.

Meanwhile, Martin had long been perceived as indecisive (remember, the label "Mr Dithers" came from England's The Economist magazine, not Martin's Canadian adversaries) and this perception only became enhanced during the campaign. During the campaign, the impression Martin created was not just of indecisiveness, but also desperation (what a disastrous combination in a Prime Minister!)

That's how I recall the leadup to the election, at least. Of course, things always look different in hindsight than they do when they were actually happening. If anybody feels that I've unintentionally revised history, please feel free to explain why.

Anyway, I'm not trying to fight the '05-'06 election all over again. I'm just trying to dispute the claim that Martin always lead Harper in personal popularity. In my recollection, Harper's emergence was what propelled the Conservative surge in popularity. Remember that when the election was called, the Liberals had a comfy lead in the polls, and were expected to win at least a strong minority if not a majority. I think that Harper's rise in personal popularity during the campaign was the single most important factor in the startling reversal.

Clearly, since SES is the most accurate polling firm in the country, he must be right that the Tories are not in majority territory, right?

I don't think anybody claims the Conservatives are in majority territory right now.

I think KeepItSimple makes a good point about the "rebranding" issue. The merger of the two parties has alienated some of the supporters of both, and has left many other voters unconvinced of where the party's core beliefs really lay. Some people continue to see them as right-wing traditionalists who are beholden to Big Oil or Uncle Sam or so on. While others, as can be seen on this message board, are mad at Harper for appeasing Quebec and sucking up to minorities and so-on. It is a work in progress.

Stephen Harper has, almost by personal force of will, turned the remnants of the old PC party and the old Reform party into a moderate, centrist, mainstream alternative to the Liberals. I think this was something Canadian politics desperately needed, and I think that like him or hate him, Canadians should at least appreciate that he has done something very important for our democracy.

-k

[bush_cheney2004]

I'm not sure exactly what tipping point you are referring to when the Tories have not budged in the polls.

Maybe it was the "Global Happiness Index" that turned the tide. Canadians love to rank well in such things. That slide in UN ranking doomed Martin!

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...?hub=TopStories

[jdobbin]

I don't think that's the case. I believe that in the lead-up to the election, and particularly during the campaign, there was a very large shift from Martin to Harper.

That's how I recall the leadup to the election, at least. Of course, things always look different in hindsight than they do when they were actually happening. If anybody feels that I've unintentionally revised history, please feel free to explain why.

Anyway, I'm not trying to fight the '05-'06 election all over again. I'm just trying to dispute the claim that Martin always lead Harper in personal popularity. In my recollection, Harper's emergence was what propelled the Conservative surge in popularity. Remember that when the election was called, the Liberals had a comfy lead in the polls, and were expected to win at least a strong minority if not a majority. I think that Harper's rise in personal popularity during the campaign was the single most important factor in the startling reversal.

I don't think anybody claims the Conservatives are in majority territory right now.

I think KeepItSimple makes a good point about the "rebranding" issue. The merger of the two parties has alienated some of the supporters of both, and has left many other voters unconvinced of where the party's core beliefs really lay. Some people continue to see them as right-wing traditionalists who are beholden to Big Oil or Uncle Sam or so on. While others, as can be seen on this message board, are mad at Harper for appeasing Quebec and sucking up to minorities and so-on. It is a work in progress.

Stephen Harper has, almost by personal force of will, turned the remnants of the old PC party and the old Reform party into a moderate, centrist, mainstream alternative to the Liberals. I think this was something Canadian politics desperately needed, and I think that like him or hate him, Canadians should at least appreciate that he has done something very important for our democracy.

-k

Martin was ahead in popularity as leader right up to the election. There was never a time that Harper was more popular then he was except in the last days before the election.

Here is a poll from right at the height of the election:

http://www.sesresearch.com/election/SES%20...206%202005E.pdf

Martin was 29%. Harper was tied at 21% with "Unsure."

So do you still dispute that Martin was more popular?

Leadership polls are poor forecasters of how many seats are won in Parliament anyways. As I pointed out, if leadership popularity translated into seats, Broadbent would have become prime minister.

The one big factor in putting the Liberals out of contention was the announcement that the RCMP were investigating Ralph Goodale's office. They dropped 10 points right then and there and never recovered. Prior to that, the Liberals were not great shakes in the polls but were placed well enough to probably win another minority.

The right wing keeps thinking that re-branding is what will turn the tide and get them into majority territory. It isn't the message but the actions that will determine how well they do.

Edited September 3, 2007 by jdobbin

[kimmy]

Here is a poll from right at the height of the election:

http://www.sesresearch.com/election/SES%20...206%202005E.pdf

Martin was 29%. Harper was tied at 21% with "Unsure."

So do you still dispute that Martin was more popular?

That poll is not from "right at the height of the election." It's dated December 6th, which was the first week of the campaign. (surely the headline "Liberals Widen Lead!" and the 12-point Liberal bulge should have tipped you off...)

The one big factor in putting the Liberals out of contention was the announcement that the RCMP were investigating Ralph Goodale's office. They dropped 10 points right then and there and never recovered. Prior to that, the Liberals were not great shakes in the polls but were placed well enough to probably win another minority.

...zzz...

The right wing keeps thinking that re-branding is what will turn the tide and get them into majority territory. It isn't the message but the actions that will determine how well they do.

It is not the rebranding that matters, it is that they are no longer a "right wing" party, but a center party. The perception of where the party stands lags behind the reality, but that will not remain the case forever.

-k

[jdobbin]

That poll is not from "right at the height of the election." It's dated December 6th, which was the first week of the campaign. (surely the headline "Liberals Widen Lead!" and the 12-point Liberal bulge should have tipped you off...)

...zzz...

It is not the rebranding that matters, it is that they are no longer a "right wing" party, but a center party. The perception of where the party stands lags behind the reality, but that will not remain the case forever.

You initially said prior to the election, his popularity rose. I don't think there was a single poll to indicate that.

As for your nappy time, several pollsters remarked on the RCMP investigation as being a turning point for poll numbers. Many say the Liberals lost the election rather than saying the Tories won it. I think the majority numbers the Liberals were flirting with at the beginning ought to tip you off to that fact and the ten point drop days after the RCMP announcement.

I think you are deluded that the Tories are not a right wing party. They are governing in the center because of minority status not because of any particular philosophical bent.

Edited September 3, 2007 by jdobbin

[gc1765]

Remember that when the election was called, the Liberals had a comfy lead in the polls, and were expected to win at least a strong minority if not a majority. I think that Harper's rise in personal popularity during the campaign was the single most important factor in the startling reversal.

I disagree. I think the single most important factor was the "income trust scandal". If you look at polls before the RCMP announced their investigation, the Liberals were ahead. Almost immediately after, the Liberals fell and the Conservatives gained considerably. It could be argued that after the Liberals began to fall they became desperate (for example the attack ads), however I am quite certain that it was the "income trust scandal" that began the free-fall.

[jdobbin]

I disagree. I think the single most important factor was the "income trust scandal". If you look at polls before the RCMP announced their investigation, the Liberals were ahead. Almost immediately after, the Liberals fell and the Conservatives gained considerably. It could be argued that after the Liberals began to fall they became desperate (for example the attack ads), however I am quite certain that it was the "income trust scandal" that began the free-fall.

Here is the popularity of Martin days after the RCMP announcement:

http://www.sesresearch.com/election/SES%20...029%202005E.pdf

Martin best PM 27%, Harper 24%.

If this make some people happy, then perhaps we call this the "height of the election."

It is only in the last week of the election that Harper's support rose past Martin's.

http://www.sesresearch.com/election/SES%20...018%202006E.pdf

Edited September 3, 2007 by jdobbin

[Canuck E Stan]

If you can show a poll that has Harper in the lead at *any* time in personal popularity during the election, by all means show me. I've never found one. You said Harper's personal popularity rose in the election. Show a cite.

Simple challenge when it's right under your nose.

Best PM: Harper ahead of Martin by five points

Then there was the leadership competency back in early December.

Osprey News Network-December 6, 2005

However, when voters were asked to rate the leaders on “trust, competence and vision,” Harper catapulted ahead of Martin to 65 on the CPAC-SES “leadership index,” Martin plummeted 18 points to 62, Layton remained unchanged at 40, Duceppe rose to 34 and Harris climbed to eight.

Oh,oh!

And from Quebec,today,Dion really seems to be in trouble with the by-elections coming up.Oh,oh.

Liberals under gun in Quebec

Nine months into Stéphane Dion's leadership, the number of safe Liberal seats in Quebec is continuing to shrink.

With a set of by-elections only two weeks away, the Liberals are in a battle for third place with the NDP in two of the three ridings at play while they are fighting for their lives in a Montreal seat that they have held for most of the past century.

A CROP poll published last week showed the Liberals to be the party of choice of less than 15 per cent of francophone Quebecers province-wide.