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US GDP is measured by many government and independent sources. The "official" analysis comes from the NBER.

Employment is only one indicator, and it is a lagging one at that.

US currency is backed by the full faith of the government (and real tax base). It has never defaulted. The USA has a very diversified economy and is the largest in the world. The single state of California had a higher GDP than the entire nation of Canada.

There is no "right". Some people think times have been far worse before. We even get to watch the new "Depression" unfold on wide screen high-definition televisions.

Thanks for the information but there is a problem with using some measure like the GDP. Governments know that this indicator is used to evaluate their performance and the figures can be manipulated. California (which also has about the same population of Canada) does have a good GDP report. The only problem is they don't have much industry left there. For example, some time ago a large proportion of the world's computers came from there. Now most of the computing hardware comes from China and most programming is done in India. How can California possibly have a good GDP?

It wasn't that long ago that the U.S.A. produced many things. I'm even old enough to remember U.S. made electronics like transistor radios (the Japanese did not invent them) stereos and TVs. Those are all gone now. So are the coffee makers, microwaves and electric shavers (except some by Wahl). The computer industry is mostly gone too. All this production is gone and nothing has replaced it. So what is California producing domestically to have this high GDP? This is not a rhetorical question since I always buy North American if I can find any.

Do not joke about the "depression". All of North America is depends on Chinese manufacurers that all appear to be majority owned by the communist Peoples' Liberation Army. Ain't that something? A few decades ago Canadian Soldiers were shooting their ancestors and now the Communists just want to make us all rich. [isn't a Capitalist Communist also an oxymoron?]

It is important right now to think clearly and carefully about how to fix this problem which has been years in the making.

P.S. Back in '79 I wrote a nasty letter to Texas Instruments after they moved one of their factories to Taiwan. It was one of the very first examples of outsourcing. I was angry because it was U.S. taxpayers that payed for the development of the integrated circuits and it was U.S. taxpayers that deserved to benefit from the technology. Apparently TI completely ignored my letter and proceeded to outsource everything, just like almost every other company.

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Jim Cramer says this could go on for 5 five years for the US. Watching the BBN, they are suggesting that investors hold off investing because alot of stocks have "false value". Meaning they look like a good deal and then after you buy into them they still go down in value, even gold. I'm parking my money and am waiting for a while.

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Thanks for the information but there is a problem with using some measure like the GDP. Governments know that this indicator is used to evaluate their performance and the figures can be manipulated. California (which also has about the same population of Canada) does have a good GDP report. The only problem is they don't have much industry left there. For example, some time ago a large proportion of the world's computers came from there. Now most of the computing hardware comes from China and most programming is done in India. How can California possibly have a good GDP?

GDP represents the market value of goods and services....California has plenty of both, and has always exceeded Canada. From aircraft to agriculture to software to motion picture / television production, California has a very diverse economy. It even has automotive manufacturing...imagine that!

It wasn't that long ago that the U.S.A. produced many things. I'm even old enough to remember U.S. made electronics like transistor radios (the Japanese did not invent them) stereos and TVs. Those are all gone now. So are the coffee makers, microwaves and electric shavers (except some by Wahl). The computer industry is mostly gone too. All this production is gone and nothing has replaced it. So what is California producing domestically to have this high GDP? This is not a rhetorical question since I always buy North American if I can find any.

Sorry, you are mistaken. Despite the movement of much manufacturing overseas, it remains a signficant direct and indirect component of US GDP. Where do you think Caterpillar heavy equipment comes from? Or Boeing airliners? Or Winnebagos?

Do not joke about the "depression". All of North America is depends on Chinese manufacurers that all appear to be majority owned by the communist Peoples' Liberation Army. Ain't that something? A few decades ago Canadian Soldiers were shooting their ancestors and now the Communists just want to make us all rich. [isn't a Capitalist Communist also an oxymoron?]

Any talk about a pending Depression" is a joke.

It is important right now to think clearly and carefully about how to fix this problem which has been years in the making.

Maybe...I'm not worried at all.

P.S. Back in '79 I wrote a nasty letter to Texas Instruments after they moved one of their factories to Taiwan. It was one of the very first examples of outsourcing. I was angry because it was U.S. taxpayers that payed for the development of the integrated circuits and it was U.S. taxpayers that deserved to benefit from the technology. Apparently TI completely ignored my letter and proceeded to outsource everything, just like almost every other company.

Did you really expect TI to stop offshore manufacturing because of your letter? Actually, TI still has semiconductor manufacturing at several Texas plants.....the most recent example being in Richardson, Texas for 300mm RFAB. I turned down an enginering job with TI in Plano way back in 1984.

http://www.ti.com/corp/docs/rennerroadfab/generalfacts.shtml

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Thanks for the information but there is a problem with using some measure like the GDP. Governments know that this indicator is used to evaluate their performance and the figures can be manipulated. California (which also has about the same population of Canada) does have a good GDP report. The only problem is they don't have much industry left there. For example, some time ago a large proportion of the world's computers came from there. Now most of the computing hardware comes from China and most programming is done in India. How can California possibly have a good GDP?

It wasn't that long ago that the U.S.A. produced many things. I'm even old enough to remember U.S. made electronics like transistor radios (the Japanese did not invent them) stereos and TVs. Those are all gone now. So are the coffee makers, microwaves and electric shavers (except some by Wahl). The computer industry is mostly gone too. All this production is gone and nothing has replaced it. So what is California producing domestically to have this high GDP? This is not a rhetorical question since I always buy North American if I can find any.

Great post.

A good deal of food I eat does not even come from Canada anymore. Granted there are some stuff you just can't grow/produce in Canada's climate. But you can blame this on people wanting cheaper things and not caring where it came from. People do not seem worried about it at all. They just do not understand the impact it has.

This is something I have noticed as of late myself. It does a double whammy on the economy. You have paid to outsource everything overseas. You now have a people out of work. Skilled people out of work. As that T.I. facility got shut down, many out of work, many may need schooling to get new skills because theirs are not usefull anymore. There is a cost to outsource, there is a cost to not having a strong well paid work force. So, without the plant making money in Texas, and with a workforce that now is not working. What happens? There is a much larger loss than just having a plant shipped overseas. It is a permanent loss untill, .. IF those jobs ever come back.

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GDP represents the market value of goods and services....California has plenty of both, and has always exceeded Canada. From aircraft to agriculture to software to motion picture / television production, California has a very diverse economy. It even has automotive manufacturing...imagine that!

Sorry, you are mistaken. Despite the movement of much manufacturing overseas, it remains a signficant direct and indirect component of US GDP. Where do you think Caterpillar heavy equipment comes from? Or Boeing airliners? Or Winnebagos?

Any talk about a pending Depression" is a joke.

Maybe...I'm not worried at all.

Did you really expect TI to stop offshore manufacturing because of your letter? Actually, TI still has semiconductor manufacturing at several Texas plants.....the most recent example being in Richardson, Texas for 300mm RFAB. I turned down an enginering job with TI in Plano way back in 1984.

http://www.ti.com/corp/docs/rennerroadfab/generalfacts.shtml

Sorry about the delay in replying bush_cheny but I needed to do some research.

TI is not creating many jobs at that new plant because as the site states, "Although the facility’s completion was May 2006, TI will continue to watch market demand in deciding when to open the plant."

Caterpillar is also not a good example even back in '91 most of their workforce was foreign.

http://www.bizjournals.com/nashville/stori...19/daily24.html

“The company has 69,000 employees, and 60 percent of those work in other countries.”

A lot of their products now come from plants in Shandong, China and Chennai, India.

Boeing is also not a good example of a company that employs Americans.

See http://www.theoutsourcingblog.com/boeing-a...tsourcing-blues

“…Boeing, like other companies across the US, wants flexibility to outsource work and that is the root cause of the strike by Boeing machinists…Boeing’s 787 program, building a fuel-efficient jet was supposed to be primarily built offshore by suppliers in Japan, Italy, and elsewhere. These suppliers were to do most of the work and Boeing was only going to do the final assembly of these planes in house.”

and http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/conte...05/b3969417.htm

“The 787 outsourcing strategy certainly didn't sit well with the unions or Boeing employees. After all, following September 11, 2001, Boeing laid off 38,000 people over a four-year span. The Society of Professional Engineering Employees in Aerospace, or SPEEA, lost more than 5,000 union members even as Boeing was hiring more than 1,000 Russian aerospace engineers for its Moscow Design Center.”

I expect that that is nearly 38,000 people who could no longer afford their houses.

Winnebago has troubles too:

"http://www.globegazette.com/articles/2008/09/09/news/local/doc48c60151c1a57686701831.txt

“FOREST CITY — Layoffs at Winnebago Industries are continuing because of declining production caused by reduced demand, a company spokeswoman said Monday.

Sheila Davis of Winnebago declined to comment on the number of recent layoffs or on the possibility of further layoffs.

She said, “We continue to reduce our labor force to meet demands of the market place.”

Last month, the company closed its Charles City manufacturing plant, idling 270 workers. Two smaller Winnebago plants in Charles City are still open.

The company laid off more than 200 employees and eliminated an additional 100 jobs by not filling vacant positions during the first three months of this year.”

Decent paying jobs are disappearing everywhere and it would take five full-time McJobs for these folks to afford their houses. That means a 200 hour work week. See the problem (7X24 = 168)?

It is tempting to "blame the victims" or blame the banks but the real problem lays with government policies. It is tempting to say they were foolish but this coolapse may well be intentional.

The Progressive Republican Teddy Roosevelt spoke of an "invisible government". These are ultimately powerful families that influence the ostensible government. Many years ago when Adolph Hitler was an unemployed artist in Austria he was financed by "secret partners" (from a book by James Pool). The German economy collapsed and this allowed for the election of the dictator. Why does everyone assume the collapse was accidental when the partners could easily collapse the economy to allow their man to win?

Fixing the problem first requires acknowldedgment that the problem exists. Then the influence of invisible governments need to be reduced. That won't be easy because they are wealthy and we all have the best government that money can buy.

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Sorry about the delay in replying bush_cheny but I needed to do some research.

TI is not creating many jobs at that new plant because as the site states, "Although the facility’s completion was May 2006, TI will continue to watch market demand in deciding when to open the plant."

Caterpillar is also not a good example even back in '91 most of their workforce was foreign....

Nevertheless, all of these companies continue to have manufacturing capacity in the United States. And that means hundreds of thousands of employees employed directly or through Tiered suppliers. There may be less manufacturing, but it is still a significant portion of US GDP.

06/08 - Manufacturers' News reports Texas is home to 24,273 manufacturers

employing 1,225,585 workers, ranking 2nd in the nation for number of

manufacturing jobs and plants, just behind California. The state accounts for

62% of the Southwest's manufacturing jobs and 55% of the region's

manufacturers.

Layoffs are neither new or remarkable.

The Progressive Republican Teddy Roosevelt spoke of an "invisible government". These are ultimately powerful families that influence the ostensible government. Many years ago when Adolph Hitler was an unemployed artist in Austria he was financed by "secret partners" (from a book by James Pool). The German economy collapsed and this allowed for the election of the dictator. Why does everyone assume the collapse was accidental when the partners could easily collapse the economy to allow their man to win?

OK....we've already seen this conspiracy movie before. I thought you were serious.

Fixing the problem first requires acknowldedgment that the problem exists. Then the influence of invisible governments need to be reduced. That won't be easy because they are wealthy and we all have the best government that money can buy.

Good luck with that....government without an economic imperative is not a pretty thing to see.

Edited by bush_cheney2004
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Great post.

Thanks

A good deal of food I eat does not even come from Canada anymore. Granted there are some stuff you just can't grow/produce in Canada's climate. But you can blame this on people wanting cheaper things and not caring where it came from. People do not seem worried about it at all. They just do not understand the impact it has.

Don't be so quick to "blame the victims" here. Here is what I now have to do to buy Canadian shirts. There is a manufacturer in Ontario called Ash city and they still make shirts here. No store I have found carries the brand so I have to special order them from a local company that does promotional items. The minimum quantity they can order is 12 shirts so that is what I have to buy. Most people just do not know how to obtain Canadian made shirts. If the retailers had them then many people would buy them but it is not up to the customer. It is the greedy retailers that will only carry 1$ shirts that they sell for a "made in Canada" price. Lots of profit but it is empty profit because it is destroyig destroying our industrial infrastructure.

This is something I have noticed as of late myself. It does a double whammy on the economy. You have paid to outsource everything overseas. You now have a people out of work. Skilled people out of work. As that T.I. facility got shut down, many out of work, many may need schooling to get new skills because theirs are not usefull anymore. There is a cost to outsource, there is a cost to not having a strong well paid work force. So, without the plant making money in Texas, and with a workforce that now is not working. What happens? There is a much larger loss than just having a plant shipped overseas. It is a permanent loss untill, .. IF those jobs ever come back.

Import duties were there for a reason and so were public utilities. Regressive and radical governments removed the duties and privitized the utilities. Now we are seeing just how unstable unbridled [as in the 19th century] capitalism can be.

One thing to mention here. I understand that the Communist government of China is intentionally preventing their currency from increasing in value. They are allowing foreigners to virtually enslave their own people. Holding the price down is a form of "dumping" and yet there is not a peep from the regulators. Makes you wonder which side the regulators are on.

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It's only a matter of time before this recession is called.

But for those who want to look at some interesting data about the "real" economy then read this post:

Time to call this a recession

Those numbers are odd, msj.

Never have so many people been calling a recession for so long and stretching for whatever results to support their call.

One of my favourite quotes is one like this, now making the rounds:

Earlier this week, China delivered its weakest set of economic data in five years, escalating fears the Asian giant cannot escape the global downturn. On Monday, the National Bureau of Statistics in Beijing said gross domestic product grew by 9.0% in the third quarter of 2008, down from 10.1% in the previous quarter.
FP

IOW, since the Chinese economy is now only growing at 9.0% per year instead of 10.1%, the world economy is about to go into "global recession".

----

There are strong indications that US real GDP will decline and hence it will be in "recession". Nevertheless, this is not a recession like any other. For example, this will likely be a low-unemployment recession. For demographic reasons, the labour market has never been so tight in over 40 years.

At the practical level, I'm more intrigued by the effect of the collapse in housing prices and equity markets. How will this affect people's real behaviour? One friend mentioned her pension plan - the "Plan 85" - "I'm planning to work until I croak." Another friend said, when asked about the equity market, "I'll have to work two years longer than I first anticipated."

Changes in financial markets have various effects on real decisions. Financial paper is a risky claim on real assets. In all trades, but in particular in trading financial paper, one side of the transaction often knows more than the other.

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Once again, August, read some of the many links that I have provided.

Look at U6 unemployment - it is running at over 10%.

Look at U3 unemployment - write it down, and then wait another several months and write down the revised numbers.

Just because you can look at the official numbers that are coming out now and ignore the grand history of revisions that will worm their way into the numbers over the next several months to years (real GDP will be revised for at least another two years) doesn't mean the rest of us pull down the blind fold.

The recession gives every appearance of getting worse in the face of the financial crisis.

As for the length of calling for a recession - of course it has been long.

Once again, read up on history - recessions are always called long after they start. History is your friend.

And, once again, I have already linked to that type of data.

No offense August, but if you want to continue to have a discussion then it would be appreciated if you would stop cheapening it with opinions that have already been proven in error long ago by data-driven, factual articles/posts.

Do yourself a favour and actually read the articles that are posted before commenting and stop embarrassing yourself.

Do yourself a further favour and, when expressing your opinions, try to back them up with something resembling facts.

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Better late than never.

Looks like Greenspan is finally admitting (albeit only "partially") some blame.

I find it rather hypocritical of Congress to be hard on him now.

Where were the critical thinking skills to come up with the hard questions that would have exposed Greenspan years ago?

Oh no, couldn't do that in good times. No, better to just sit and listen to the "Maestro" without thinking at all.

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OK....we've already seen this conspiracy movie before. I thought you were serious.

Hmm. History is full of real conspiracies and popular denial will certainly allow for more in the future. As far as I know Pool's books have not been made into movies but it would be good if they were.

Perhaps Teddy Roosevelt was paranoid when he said "Behind the ostensible government sits enthroned an invisible government owing no allegiance and acknowledging no responsibility to the people." [from http://www.quotesandpoem.com/quotes/showqu...roosevelt/12445] Of course even if he was paranoid that does not mean that THEY were not actually out to get him, Eh?

No, he and other progressives broke up monopolies, taxed the wealthy and began government meat inspection.

It seems to be that the tax on the incomes of the wealthy helped to create the large American middle-class. Breaking up the monopolies reduced the influence of the "invisible government" and meat inspection increased the life expectancy of the citizens. Now regressive and radical government reverse this progress and the result is predictable.

The U.S. could sure use a president like Teddy Roosevelt again.

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As for the length of calling for a recession - of course it has been long.

Once again, read up on history - recessions are always called long after they start. History is your friend.

And, once again, I have already linked to that type of data.

No offense August, but if you want to continue to have a discussion then it would be appreciated if you would stop cheapening it with opinions that have already been proven in error long ago by data-driven, factual articles/posts.

Do yourself a favour and actually read the articles that are posted before commenting and stop embarrassing yourself.

Do yourself a further favour and, when expressing your opinions, try to back them up with something resembling facts.

Recessions are not called for six years or more before they happen. And this particular credit crunch has the curious timing of the end-game of a remarkable presidential race and when the Internet is in full development.

And msj, please drop the personal insults. I read probably as widely as you do. I just don't have a preconceived opinion about all this. I have been party to predictions of a recession as much as I have argued about the fundamental strength of the US economy.

I have an open mind.

Better late than never.

Looks like Greenspan is finally admitting (albeit only "partially") some blame.

I find it rather hypocritical of Congress to be hard on him now.

That article is bad reporting. Congress wants a scapegoat and the article merely presents the view of Congress.

To blame Greenspan for the current problems because he reduced the discount rate after the dot com bubble burst strikes me as terribly simplistic.

Panics and bubbles are a feature of financial markets. Markets in real goods can suffer bubbles. Information clearly plays a role in this. I doubt that greater regulation will solve these problems and I'm inclined to believe, as Greenspan implies, that government regulators are as ignorant as anyone and will probably just makes matter worse.

-----

Financial bubbles/panics aside, the question is whether and to what degree changes in the value of financial paper have any effect on people's real decisions. msj, be cautious. As I noted elsewhere, the US between 1870 and 1910 suffered several financial panics, some severe. And yet in that same time, the US economy rose to its world position that it still enjoys.

Many people, for political reasons, want to see America suffer a terrible recession. For some, it's a way to blame Bush. For others, it may well be a way to blame the incompetence of a young, neophyte President.

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August, I have put up plenty of data driven articles to support my arguments and all you can do is present more opinion based on what?

Certainly not facts.

Perhaps I would grant you some credibility if you were to back up your supposed arguments with, oh, I don't know, maybe some facts?

It sounds like you are starting to come around to the latest conspiracy theory about the supposed timing of this economic crisis.

Yeah, ignore years of warnings about this kind of thing, and then when it hits the fan, go on about how convenient the timing is for it to happen before the presidential election rather than after it....

I do find it strange that the Republicans are so incompetent when it comes to fighting an election during a recession. Maybe if they spent less time denying the existence of the "mental" recession and more time talking about making things better, well, who knows....

As for the article, sure it's not the greatest reporting.

It's from the WSJ so what else would one expect?

But that's why I posted it rather than a link to one of those blogs that I usually post to.

I thought you and your ilk would prefer something more mainstream - oh, right, the WSJ is part of the liberal conspiracy too. Sorry, I forgot.

Greenspan deserves the blame for many reasons that go beyond that article but then, had you been paying attention to some of my previous posts, you would know that argument by now, wouldn't you?

Heck, if you had paid attention to the very post that you replied to you would have seen where I am critical of Congress' hypocrisy for not questioning the "Maestro" years ago for many of his deeds (or lack thereof).

I will also note, once again, that I'm not talking about whether or not the US will come out of this recession wealthier in the long run.

Of course they will.

I have never claimed that this is the end of the world.

It's not like I look at the fall in the stock markets over a short period of time and then panic and question the viability of the CPP or something like that.

I have been consistent in calling for a recession albeit wrong as to its degree and length (this one is already much more severe than I would have thought back in June).

Maybe if you would "open" your mind up and read some of the links that I have provided in the past then you wouldn't be so defensive about this recession.

Sure, we can disagree about its causes and its solutions.

But the continual tone of denial about the "real" economy not being in trouble just is not supported by facts.

Edited by msj
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We've already seen that movie too in The Jungle (Upton Sinclair). Did the "meat inspection" thing about 100 years ago. But I am sure that China may be interested.

Sorry, I have never read that book and am not really interested in such books. Chances are that a book from 1906 does not mention the financing of the Nazi party. This is the subject of Pool's books. It was a bona fide conspiracy by some of the most evil people to ever have lived.

Roosevelt was around about a 100 years ago and government meat inspection was instituted about that time. It continued for most of the twentieth century until some plants became "self-inspecting". Soon after that people were dying from bad meat, again. Some blamed the burger places for not cooking the poison out but that skirts the issue. Under the old system the bad meat would not have been shipped but would have been condemned and destroyed. Of course contaminated meat is mosty a concern for people over 45 and the very young. People in between will probably survive bad meat with little permanent damage.

China is fully Communist and the Progressives were mildly socialist. Why do you mention China in this context.

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Exactly. The real (non-financial) economy is doing extremely well. You don't have unemployment between 4.5 and 5% for years in a row in a bad economy.
I'm a bankruptcy lawyer and would be one of the first to see a bad economic trend. I do not see this spreading beyond the financial sector into the "real" sector. In fact, the real sector of the economy may benefit to the extent that speculative pricing is driven out of the cost of owning or renting a home.

Can you believe that was less than a month and a half ago?

:ph34r:

Edited by PoliticalCitizen
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Most foreclosures stem from people purchasing houses they cannot afford. Trust me on that one.

I guess things have changed a bit:

- Every sixth home owner in US owes more than their property is worth and the prices or real estate keep declining;

- 50% of the houses on US market are foreclosures...

:ph34r:

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Sorry, I have never read that book and am not really interested in such books. Chances are that a book from 1906 does not mention the financing of the Nazi party. This is the subject of Pool's books. It was a bona fide conspiracy by some of the most evil people to ever have lived.

He only exposed the contemporary lack of working sconditions, sanitation and standards for "meat". Nazis were not a big deal in 1906.

Roosevelt was around about a 100 years ago and government meat inspection was instituted about that time. It continued for most of the twentieth century until some plants became "self-inspecting". Soon after that people were dying from bad meat, again. Some blamed the burger places for not cooking the poison out but that skirts the issue. Under the old system the bad meat would not have been shipped but would have been condemned and destroyed. Of course contaminated meat is mosty a concern for people over 45 and the very young. People in between will probably survive bad meat with little permanent damage.

Food safety has never been better for a myriad of reasons. It's not just about "meat".

China is fully Communist and the Progressives were mildly socialist. Why do you mention China in this context.

Because my cat asked me too.....he takes exception to tainted gravy cuts.

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With the latest GDP number essentially nailing the recession deniers I found the following post interesting.

It is interesting in that the first release of 2008 Q3 real GDP was negative.

Based on previous history, that's not a particularly good omen for the depth and length of the recession.

But at least Americans can be thankful for all that government spending - otherwise the GDP number would have been even worse.

Nothing like "Military Keynesianism."

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This is what I mean by revisions:

September - BLS tells us job losses were 159,000.

October - BLS revises September to 284,000 job losses.

When things look worse and worse it means that eventually they will get better.

Having said that, I would expect the revisions to the employment reports to take at least several more months but at least by that time we will hopefully have hit the trough.

Let's hope the W recession doesn't turn into a L recession.

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