Next leader of the Liberals, and when?

[fellowtraveller]

There has been a fair bit of grumbling about Dion as leader already, a growing realization that this Chretien/Martin relic is unlikely to inspire many Canadians to vote Liberal. He was elected leader because of those links, he is as safe and comfy as old slippers for the Liberal old d, but it also gave the Tories a much longer run in power.

Assuming Dion either gets turfed before a general election, or stays the course and is beaten....... who is next for the Liberals?

Wiil either of the other former frontrunners- Bob Rae or Michael Ignatieff still be interested?

Will the guy who could have beaten Harper- Frank McKenna - take over?

Kennedy?

How about the darkhorse, Trudeau? Brian Tobin from the outside?

[gc1765]

Kennedy.

When? If Dion loses the next election.

[noahbody]

Kennedy.

When? If Dion loses the next election.

It'll be Tobin, Manly or McKenna. Tobin most likely.

[Mad_Michael]

There has been a fair bit of grumbling about Dion as leader already, a growing realization that this Chretien/Martin relic is unlikely to inspire many Canadians to vote Liberal. He was elected leader because of those links, he is as safe and comfy as old slippers for the Liberal old d, but it also gave the Tories a much longer run in power.

Assuming Dion either gets turfed before a general election, or stays the course and is beaten....... who is next for the Liberals?

Wiil either of the other former frontrunners- Bob Rae or Michael Ignatieff still be interested?

Will the guy who could have beaten Harper- Frank McKenna - take over?

Kennedy?

How about the darkhorse, Trudeau? Brian Tobin from the outside?

I'd predict a re-match of the two front-runners from the last leadership convention. Picking the 4th place guy was obviously a bad choice.

Ignatieff and Rae, head to head.

Btw, I don't see McKenna as a particularly strong candidate. Yes, he would be a good candidate, but I see absolutely no reason to see him as particularly strong - he has virtually no profile in Ontario (for example). I'm a bit of a political junky and I can barely remember which Maritime province he was Premier of, let alone any accomplishments he might have.

[Mad_Michael]

Kennedy.

When? If Dion loses the next election.

It'll be Tobin, Manly or McKenna. Tobin most likely.

Now there is a line up that would have me tearing up my Liberal membership card.

Tobin? You've got to be kidding! And Manly makes Dion look interesting!

[Fortunata]

Hopefully not Bob Rae; didn't he make quite the mess out of Ontario?

I maybe would vote Lib if Tobin were leader. Or not.

[Michael Bluth]

Btw, I don't see McKenna as a particularly strong candidate. Yes, he would be a good candidate, but I see absolutely no reason to see him as particularly strong - he has virtually no profile in Ontario (for example). I'm a bit of a political junky and I can barely remember which Maritime province he was Premier of, let alone any accomplishments he might have.

Not much of a political junkie.

McKenna was premier of New Brunswick for a decade.

Former Canadian Ambassador to the US.

Definitely from the centre of the Liberal party.

Baloney he has no profile in Ontario.

[Mad_Michael]

Hopefully not Bob Rae; didn't he make quite the mess out of Ontario?

Not really. The media might have you believe otherwise, but they like to spin things.

Rae didn't actually do much of anything as a one-term Premier of Ontario. The day he was sworn in, he inherited a massive (hidden) deficit from the Conservatives. And the Bay Street set pretty much declared war against Rae on principle. And the Union set pretty much demanded that Rae launch a socialist revolution. With no money and the fanatics screaming at both ends of the political spectrum, there really wasn't much Rae could do.

The perception of the Rae "mess" in Ontario is a manufactured product mostly of the unionists screaming about how they were screwed by Rae or the mass media who needed political conflict to sell their product.

On the whole, I'd say that Rae's administration was relatively competent under extreme conditions that prevented any possible policy initiatives.

Indeed, due to the hidden deficit the Conservatives passed on to Rae, he engaged in a policy of fiscal discipline (and was considered the anti-christ by the unionists and socialists because of it).

So on the whole, I'd say Rae did a decent job in 'surviving' that term of office given that so many vested interests had so many axes to grind and Rae was a pawn of no one.

And Rae proved that he is fiscally responsible under extreme conditions. That is very admirable in my book, given how so many conservative governments have turned out to be utterly irresponsible fiscal nightmares (Mulroney in Ottawa, Davis or Harris in Ontario, Bush in the USA, etc.).

I maybe would vote Lib if Tobin were leader. Or not.

Feel free to enlighten me about one or two substantive political accomplishments of Tobin. I'm aware of none.

[fellowtraveller]

Tobin may not have accomplished much, but he has outstanding hair and is a good adhoc speaker.

Kennedy remains mostly unknown outside the Liberal party.

Ignatieff may have a better shot next time, but I don't think his heart is really in it. He frightens the Liberal core. He also has good hair and is articulate.

Rae is certainly a contender. People inside Ontario will vote Liberal no matter what, does it matter to anybody in the GTA that Rae may or may not have been useless a decade ago. he is a formidable politician and campaigner. People outside Ontario know little about him other than that he was a NDP Premier - which may be a death blow in and of itself.

Trudeau also has very good hair, but he about to discover that the story he has been told his entire life- that dad was loved by all - was more fable than fact. I hope he is not crushed by the process.

McKenna is my choice, after the next election he will be crowned as leader. he is the former longterm, undefeated Premier of New Brunswick. Bilingual. Has international experience now with the ambassadorship and Carlyle Group. Plenty of chops now in Bay Street, via Can West and TD Bank appointments. Nurtured at the teat of Allan (The Horrible) Maceachern. He was the odds-on favorite (7-2 odds) in the last Liberal leadership race before he quit once he realized that the Old Guard was sticking with the Old Guard.Aritculate and savvy. Also short and does not have good hair. His handlers can fix the hair thing, and they will be careful who he stands next to.....

[jdobbin]

The next Liberal leader will come after Dion has been prime minister for two terms.

It won't be McKenna, Manley or Tobin who will have long retired from active politics.

Rae might run if he has not retired. Igntatieff will run as the anointed one.

They face might include Kennedy, Hall-Findlay and Justin Trudeau

The western and other Quebec candidates for the party are presently not elected nor have made themselves known at this time.

[ScottSA]

The next Liberal leader will come after Dion has been prime minister for two terms.

Hahahaha...good acid, man?

[jdobbin]

Hahahaha...good acid, man?

You might feel compelled to move out of Canada after the Liberals win in the next year and a bit.

[fellowtraveller]

I'm a bit surprised that you would believe Dion is electable once, much less twice. The first would have to be a majority for him to be allowed to stand for a second term.

Do you really think that will happen?

I can certainly see other Liberals gaining two majorities, but it is very hard to imagine Dion achieving any.

[betsy]

Kennedy remains mostly unknown outside the Liberal party.

And very rude!

I wasn't the only one fuming about his rudeness on MDuffy Live (he relentlessly drowned out the other guest from explaining, even ignored Duffy who tried to intervene to let the other guy talk...and Duffy eventually gave up trying!).

The next day, MDuffy was all serious about his moderating, and explained that he had a lot of emails complaining about his "guest's" rudeness.

If I am a Liberal, I'd never ever consider Kennedy. He definitely lacks common courtesy and ethics to be qualified to lead, and represent a country! He should just stay where he's at today. A "strategist."

Kennedy is very much interested to go for it, I'd say.

[jdobbin]

I'm a bit surprised that you would believe Dion is electable once, much less twice. The first would have to be a majority for him to be allowed to stand for a second term.

Do you really think that will happen?

I can certainly see other Liberals gaining two majorities, but it is very hard to imagine Dion achieving any.

I think the Tories will lose the next election and Dion will have a minority government. I think after Harper is defeated that he will be replaced. I just don't know by who. Before the new leader can really take hold, the Liberals will call another election, win a majority with Dion at the helm.

Dion will announce later into his second term that he will be stepping down and the Liberals will elect a new leader.

Dion will take a job with the U.N. or Brookings Institute and lecture around the world.

[Mad_Michael]

Tobin may not have accomplished much, but he has outstanding hair and is a good adhoc speaker.

Ergo, my dissing of him as Liberal leader potential. Good hair and tv style is the minimum standard for a political career. It is totally insufficient for the top job.

Kennedy remains mostly unknown outside the Liberal party.

Agreed. He's a lightweight that doesn't deserve serious consideration. Good looking, great hair and tv style, but again, light on the accomplishments.

Ignatieff may have a better shot next time, but I don't think his heart is really in it. He frightens the Liberal core. He also has good hair and is articulate.

Hey - I'm a Toronto born urban intellectual with lots of years in academia and a pro-liberal bias, which is to say that I should like the guy - but there is just something about Ignatieff that I don't like or don't trust. I don't know what it is, but I just don't like the guy.

And in my opinion, a decade or more of tenure at a serious university is absolutely NOT good training for Party leader or PM. And I really don't like the fact that he's lived outside of Canada for so long. That's all well and fine for any other citizen, but it seems wrong for one who seeks to be PM.

Rae is certainly a contender. People inside Ontario will vote Liberal no matter what, does it matter to anybody in the GTA that Rae may or may not have been useless a decade ago. he is a formidable politician and campaigner. People outside Ontario know little about him other than that he was a NDP Premier - which may be a death blow in and of itself.

I believe Rae's the best choice that is readily available.

The guy is a lawyer and Rhodes scholar, has 'good hair and tv style' and his convention campaign speech was masterful (the only one who left the podium and spoke without notes, flipping effortlessly between English and French). His bilingual credentials are excellent, he has lots of 'front bench' experience in the hot-house of the Legislature, he has proven that he can win a major election campaign and he has the executive experience of being Premier. These are pretty solid credentials for party leader and/or PM.

Most significantly, during the last leadership campaign, Rae had the best public polling numbers in every Province except Ontario (which was split with Ignatieff and Kennedy). This is a very important and traditional Liberal electoral weapon. Liberals can win seats in every Province and they all add up. And seats in every Province builds a stronger governing mandate.

Trudeau also has very good hair, but he about to discover that the story he has been told his entire life- that dad was loved by all - was more fable than fact. I hope he is not crushed by the process.

PET was loved most in the early days and then again during his retirement. The historians have been rather kind to Pierre though. Safe to say that the Trudeau name is a powerful one for Canadian politics. Not universally loved, that's for sure, but there is still powerful charisma associated with the name. You can see that in Justin.

But this youngster doesn't have a law degree or a Ph.D. or much of a resume beyond his own last name. He looks very good and he's guarenteed to be a political celebrity for the rest of his life in Canada - but without some serious credentials, he's way too young, a lightweight and a total longshot.

McKenna is my choice, after the next election he will be crowned as leader. he is the former longterm, undefeated Premier of New Brunswick. Bilingual. Has international experience now with the ambassadorship and Carlyle Group. Plenty of chops now in Bay Street, via Can West and TD Bank appointments. Nurtured at the teat of Allan (The Horrible) Maceachern. He was the odds-on favorite (7-2 odds) in the last Liberal leadership race before he quit once he realized that the Old Guard was sticking with the Old Guard.Aritculate and savvy. Also short and does not have good hair. His handlers can fix the hair thing, and they will be careful who he stands next to.....

The Carlyle Group relationship is toxic. That directly connects up with the US neo-con boys there and that is a major political liability in Canada right now. You can hang the tag of "Haliburton toady" to him and he'd go down in political flames.

The day McKenna signed with Carlyle, that ended any future political career in Canada (federally speaking). I'm sure McKenna knows this.

[BC_chick]

I can certainly see other Liberals gaining two majorities, but it is very hard to imagine Dion achieving any.

Stranger things have happened. Harper got elected.

[Figleaf]

Dion has time to make it work out. Steve and the gang will be held to a minority at best in the next election, so Dion will be safe for the next election, win or loose. If he doesn't get a good showing next election, the Liberals will nevertheless allow him another try.

[NovaScotian]

Btw, I don't see McKenna as a particularly strong candidate. Yes, he would be a good candidate, but I see absolutely no reason to see him as particularly strong - he has virtually no profile in Ontario (for example). I'm a bit of a political junky and I can barely remember which Maritime province he was Premier of, let alone any accomplishments he might have.

McKenna was Premier of New Brunswick from 1987-97. I believe and pioneered the "McKenna Miracle" which saw New Brunswick take a big leap. You can read more about what he try to do in NB here.

http://www.isuma.net/v02n04/murrell/murrell_e.shtml.

I believe he also has strong business ties in central Canada and the US.

[geoffrey]

McKenna would get my vote (well, vs. Harper, not say... vs. Lord). Iggy would tempt it.

McKenna just got about the best job in the country, so I doubt if we'll see him move too quickly towards something like the PMO. Your more likely to see Iggy (who can win an election) or Rae (who will push the party further down).

[capricorn]

As I said in another thread, I think Kennedy will be held to account at the next leadership convention for having pushed Dion up the middle to beat Ignatieff and Rae last December. I think Kennedy is out.

It makes no difference whether the leadership contenders are known or unknown outside the Liberal Party. It's for delegates to decide the next leader. Delegates, and of course the backroom boys, need to know them is all.

Right now, the only one with a higher profile than Dion is Ignatieff and I beleive he wants the job badly. Why else would he work so hard at being a strong deputy leader? I feel he wants to redeem himself for all those years he spent outside Canada. I believe him to be more intelligent than Dion. That's my personal observation.

Among the present players, what other rising star do the Liberals have? As a matter of fact, at this time they are in a better position than the Conservatives. The Libs have someone in the wings. Who does the Conservatives have to replace Harper? I may be wrong but from here, I can't see anyone.

[NovaScotian]

McKenna would get my vote (well, vs. Harper, not say... vs. Lord). Iggy would tempt it.

McKenna just got about the best job in the country, so I doubt if we'll see him move too quickly towards something like the PMO. Your more likely to see Iggy (who can win an election) or Rae (who will push the party further down).

I would love to see McKenna to run, but Iggie is my second choice. Dion looks/acts more like a librarian then a future PM.

[Mad_Michael]

Dion has time to make it work out. Steve and the gang will be held to a minority at best in the next election, so Dion will be safe for the next election, win or loose. If he doesn't get a good showing next election, the Liberals will nevertheless allow him another try.

The Liberal Party has NEVER tolerated a leader that doesn't win an election. You get one shot - if you lose, you're out. Paul Martin and John Turner provide clear examples of this phenomena.

So, if Harper is returned with a minority government in the next election, Dion will be deposed whether he likes it or not. That's the way the game is played in the Liberal party of Canada. And rightly so.

[Mad_Michael]

McKenna would get my vote (well, vs. Harper, not say... vs. Lord).

The Carlyle connection makes McKenna's leadership of the Liberal Party categorically impossible. No matter how much you like him, he cannot run for the Liberal Party leadership.

Your more likely to see Iggy (who can win an election) or Rae (who will push the party further down).

Ignatieff hasn't won any election ever. Winning once as an MP in a Liberal safe-riding doesn't count for anything.

Besides which, Ignatieff ran the last time for leadership as the 'annointed son' of the party establishement and the clear favourite going it. He was unable to close the deal. That leadership convention was his to lose and he lost it. That is a major political failure.

And the public polling doesn't support your assertion regarding Rae.

[Michael Bluth]

I would love to see McKenna to run, but Iggie is my second choice. Dion looks/acts more like a librarian then a future PM.

I'm a big fan of McKenna. Just wondering if opting out in the 2006 leadership wounds him mortally for a future race.

Iggy, Rae and Kennedy will all be given some props for running last time around.