Are we witnessing the death of the Parti Québécois?

[August1991]

I haven't checked the others' analysis of the federal budget yet but this is my own.

As much as I dislike this federal budget on grounds of economics and federal affairs, I have to admit that it is remarkable from a Canadian federalist standpoint.

Trudeau never did better.

Stephen Harper has managed to make Gilles Duceppe look like a fool in both English and French canada. I don't know how Boisclair will respond.

The independance of Quebec is more than a question of getting "money that is ours".

I can't say that this is the death of the PQ or BQ but Quebec must seek another way.

[August1991]

I'd say rather that Harper has achieved his real purpose with this budget: make utter fools of the BQ and PQ. This hasn't been lost on voters outside of Quebecers and certainly not on voters in Quebec.

How does this budget make "fools" of the (fill in the blank) _____ Quebecois? I'm curious, as an American. PM if you want to send more than what you'd post.

With this federal budget, Harper put out a trap for Duceppe (and in effect, the sovereignty movement). Harper was worried enough that Duceppe wouldn't fall into the trap because Harper prepared his party for a possible election.

As it turned out, Duceppe went for the bait completely. First, Duceppe talked negatively about a Harper-Dumont Axis. Second, Duceppe approved a Harper budget. Third, Duceppe tried to excuse his actions.

[You cannot believe how the sovereigntists in Quebec are explaining this one. It includes Harper's a crook to get involved in Quebec politics one week from an election, Charest had advance notice, Duceppe is defending Quebec's interest, it's our money anyway, Quebec is not a welfare province, the Conservatives are naive since this money will help prepare Quebec independance.]

Harper saw that the PQ was dying and he wanted to put it out of its meisery with this budget. Harper might have succeeded.

Let's see what the popular vote is for the PQ next week but it's going to be less than 35% and possibly less than 30%. The only ones left are the stubborn purs et durs.

The PQ/BQ are moribund. Harper has made fun of both and the ridicule is apparent to all.

Those who believe in le fait français en Amérique will seek another method.

[blueblood]

I'd say rather that Harper has achieved his real purpose with this budget: make utter fools of the BQ and PQ. This hasn't been lost on voters outside of Quebecers and certainly not on voters in Quebec.

How does this budget make "fools" of the (fill in the blank) _____ Quebecois? I'm curious, as an American. PM if you want to send more than what you'd post.

With this federal budget, Harper put out a trap for Duceppe (and in effect, the sovereignty movement). Harper was worried enough that Duceppe wouldn't fall into the trap because Harper prepared his party for a possible election.

As it turned out, Duceppe went for the bait completely. First, Duceppe talked negatively about a Harper-Dumont Axis. Second, Duceppe approved a Harper budget. Third, Duceppe tried to excuse his actions.

[You cannot believe how the sovereigntists in Quebec are explaining this one. It includes Harper's a crook to get involved in Quebec politics one week from an election, Charest had advance notice, Duceppe is defending Quebec's interest, it's our money anyway, Quebec is not a welfare province, the Conservatives are naive since this money will help prepare Quebec independance.]

Harper saw that the PQ was dying and he wanted to put it out of its meisery with this budget. Harper might have succeeded.

Let's see what the popular vote is for the PQ next week but it's going to be less than 35% and possibly less than 30%. The only ones left are the stubborn purs et durs.

The PQ/BQ are moribund. Harper has made fun of both and the ridicule is apparent to all.

Those who believe in le fait français en Amérique will seek another method.

You might have me turned around here August. If Harper succeeds in destroying the Seperatist movement, and pops in his puppet Dumont, this might not be a bad idea. The thing I'm thinking about is that Dumont has a lot to gain here. I wonder if Harper's first order of business in a majority will be (if his stooge Charest or Dumont wins) is to pull the plug on Quebec's socialist paradise, I think with the right spin it can be done.

[jbg]

You might have me turned around here August. If Harper succeeds in destroying the Seperatist movement, and pops in his puppet Dumont, this might not be a bad idea. The thing I'm thinking about is that Dumont has a lot to gain here. I wonder if Harper's first order of business in a majority will be (if his stooge Charest or Dumont wins) is to pull the plug on Quebec's socialist paradise, I think with the right spin it can be done.

The problem is that statism/corporatism (now called, for modern consumption, socialism) is as ingrained to the French people in both France and Quebec as applie pie is to Americans. Nothing will turn that laid-back culture into a group of hard-working capitalist individualists.

[Michael Bluth]

The problem is that statism/corporatism (now called, for modern consumption, socialism) is as ingrained to the French people in both France and Quebec as applie pie is to Americans. Nothing will turn that laid-back culture into a group of hard-working capitalist individualists.

Nothing will destroy it but I believe we have started to see the tide turn. Anything but a PQ victory on Monday will be more evidence of that.

About two years ago one of the tv stations did an exposé on how lazy Les Bleus are. (They are the municipal blue-collar workers in Montréal). They followed a road crew around for two weeks. In two weeks they filled NINE potholes and did nothing else. They didn't even average a pothole a day. wtf?

After the piece aired the head of the union tried to accuse the TV station of violating the workers privacy. Unfreakinbelieveable.

Quebeckers are slowly realizing that their economic well-being depends on a move away from the entrenched socialist view.

I saw a pundit last night comment that the election on Monday marks a return to a right versus left theme in a Quebec campaign as opposed to sovereignty versus federalism. Which does explain the strenght of the ADQ pretty well.

It is very telling that Gilles Duceppe's career before becoming an MP is as a hospital orderly and a union organizer. The NDP would be hard pressed to nominate a candidate with such a scant background.

[August1991]

The problem is that statism/corporatism (now called, for modern consumption, socialism) is as ingrained to the French people in both France and Quebec as applie pie is to Americans. Nothing will turn that laid-back culture into a group of hard-working capitalist individualists.

This is an entirely different issue. My point in this thread was to argue that the PQ method of étapisme or steps toward sovereignty by referendum hasn't worked.

Many people realize this and are now turning to the ADQ. I think this change signals a shift in Quebec politics concerning how to deal with la Question nationale.

BTW, Scandinavian countries are quite successful with the style of "statism/corporatism" you deride. It seems to work in small societies with homogenous populations and where unions and employers negotiate in good faith. There are different ways for people in a society to co-operate with one another.

It is very telling that Gilles Duceppe's career before becoming an MP is as a hospital orderly and a union organizer. The NDP would be hard pressed to nominate a candidate with such a scant background.

Gilles Duceppe is the son of a well-known Quebec actor/director. This name may have given initial help but I think all would say that he has grown to be the best leader the sovereigntist movement has. Barack Obama is in serious consideration to be Democratic leader. Politics is like that.

[jbg]

Many people realize this and are now turning to the ADQ. I think this change signals a shift in Quebec politics concerning how to deal with la Question nationale.

And what direction is that?

BTW, Scandinavian countries are quite successful with the style of "statism/corporatism" you deride. It seems to work in small societies with homogenous populations and where unions and employers negotiate in good faith. There are different ways for people in a society to co-operate with one another.

But there are few examples of that, and even the Scandinavian countries' success is being undermined by the influx of immigrants that love the benefits of such a society, but are better at violence than work.

This name may have given initial help but I think all would say that he has grown to be the best leader the sovereigntist movement has.

No question about it. I've watched him and even his "English breaks" are quite well done.

Barack Obama is in serious consideration to be Democratic leader. Politics is like that.

For the moment. With him, it won't last.

[August1991]

If you believe that the PQ will still exist in six months, watch this video.

I'll add two other points.

First, Quebec politics are beyond anything in Canada or the US. What network/journalist could have such a news report? Could CBS do this to John Edwards? Giuliani? The CBC to Harper?

Second, it is evident that Dumont is taking on a new role in Quebec.

----

How many of those reading this post know who Bernard Derome is?

Canada is two solitudes. Quebec is a province unlike any other.

[blueblood]

If you believe that the PQ will still exist in six months, watch this video.

I'll add two other points.

First, Quebec politics are beyond anything in Canada or the US. What network/journalist could have such a news report? Could CBS do this to John Edwards? Giuliani? The CBC to Harper?

Second, it is evident that Dumont is taking on a new role in Quebec.

----

How many of those reading this post know who Bernard Derome is?

Canada is two solitudes. Quebec is a province unlike any other.

My grade 12 French has no hope in translating what went on here, a little commentary on the video and a discription about what it's about would be appreciated.

[geoffrey]

If you believe that the PQ will still exist in six months, watch this

And the BQ? What of them? What of their base?

[Charles Anthony]

If you believe that the PQ will still exist in six months, watch this video.

That video is the first time I had a chance to hear and see Mario Dumont for any extended period of time.

I am dumb-founded. He reminds me of a high school student counsel candidate. He has soooo much confidence and lofty goals supported by nothing but childish naivety. That is the impression I get.

I felt like I wanted to buy his cup of lemonade -- not because I was thirsty -- but out of sympathy for the little entrepreneur who has been outside in the heat for so long.

I have no capacity to judge his abilities but he is enthusiastic and unique.

What network/journalist could have such a news report? Could CBS do this to John Edwards? Giuliani? The CBC to Harper?

Never, never, never. Not only was Derome asking tough questions but he was bordering on rude. This seems to be a popular style coming out of Quebec. There is an other television interviewer -- I forget the name (Dutrissac?), he sits with his guests in a dark studio surrounded by a bunch of staticky television screens -- who does the similar cut-through-the-crap-interrogation interview approach. Dumont handled himself well.

Second, it is evident that Dumont is taking on a new role in Quebec.

Let me add one more thing -- my advice to Mario Dumont and his advisors, if they are reading: ride the wave of your charm and take it as far as possible; do something radical, drop all of your plans this Saturday night, make a surprise public appearance at the Bell Center and lend your support to The Habs (your province) at one of their last few games this season.

I think Perry Mason can sweep the floor with Alfred Hitchcock and Norman Bates.

[August1991]

And the BQ? What of them? What of their base?

As the PQ goes, so goes the BQ.

In fact, the sovereignty movement is being reduced to a base of about 25% of voters. They'll keep the BQ alive somehow. Harper can't recuperate them.

Good column by Chantal Hebert:

Monday's Quebec election is really the second phase in a dramatic shift in the political tectonic plates of the province that first came to notice in last year's federal vote.

The polarization between sovereignists and federalists that for so long shaped the Quebec landscape is no longer the defining feature of the province's politics.

On the left and the right, the issue of Quebec's future has ceased to command the first loyalties of thousands of voters. They are engaging in the electoral process on different terms.

The result is a landscape in great flux, that will continue to change over the course of the next set of federal and Quebec elections.

...

If the PQ is returned to opposition on Monday, the search for a replacement will start on the morning after the election. But the party lacks a unifying figure. It does not have a leader of the stature of Lucien Bouchard, René Lévesque or Parizeau waiting in the wings.

The name most often mentioned to replace Boisclair is that of Gilles Duceppe. But in his role as Bloc leader – a position that involves never having to force an unpopular decision on a reluctant public – he, too, has been losing his Quebec audience, to the Conservatives but also to Stéphane Dion's Liberals and to the Green party.

One way or another, it looks like there will be no real closure for anyone on Monday. The next act in this saga will take place on the stage of the next federal election.

I agree that the next evidence of what is happening in Quebec will show up in the next federal election. Harper could potentially get over 20 seats or more.

The ADQ will have official status, alot more members in the National Assembly and a network across the province in places where the Conservatives can win seats.

[August1991]

I have to agree with Jean-Herman Guay, a polisci prof at Sherbrooke.

The PQ is losing the monopoly it held on Quebec's nationalism. Worse, it offers no feasible solution except to hold a referendum that no one wants and that it would likely lose even if the question were extremely mild.

Ainsi, au fil des derniers mois, le Parti québécois a perdu le monopole de la définition du nationalisme québécois, monopole qu'il détenait depuis presque 30 ans. Dorénavant, il ne contrôle plus le «pourquoi» ou le «comment» du discours sur l'identité québécoise pas plus que le «quand». Messieurs Parizeau et Landry ont eu raison de le rappeler à André Boisclair, même si celui-ci devenait premier ministre. En fait, privé d'un chef fort, doté d'une organisation fatiguée et vieillissante ainsi que de ressources financières limitées, le PQ a perdu sa position dominante.

Il découle de tout cela un éclatement - pas une mort - du nationalisme québécois. Ce courant d'opinions est à présent fragmenté en trois éléments bien distincts, chacun ayant ses revendications propres et son agenda.

La Presse

I've been thinking about the questions further up in this thread about how this will affect the BQ. Duceppe may try to avoid the PQ's fate but it's hard not to see this Quebec election as anything but the first act of a two act play: the federal election will be up after the intermission.

[Michael Bluth]

I've been thinking about the questions further up in this thread about how this will affect the BQ. Duceppe may try to avoid the PQ's fate but it's hard not to see this Quebec election as anything but the first act of a two act play: the federal election will be up after the intermission.

The mixed results will make a spring election more likely IMHO.

It means that the time is right for a Federalist option in Quebec.

Quebeckers still haven't embraced Dion or Harper but they are both in play to win that Feeralist vote. The Conservatives could pick up 10 to 15 seats in Quebec. Add that to another 15 to 20 seats in the rest of Canada and there is your majority.

[Keepitsimple]

It'll be fun to watch on Monday. I think what might be best for Quebec would be a strong Liberal minority government with the ADQ holding the balance of power. Everybody knows that Quebec needs to downsize it's public service which is almost double the size of other provinces....but it's difficult politically to do. At last there is a party - the ADQ - that is actually campaigning on smaller government and getting people "off the couch and into the workforce"....and obviously, Quebeckers are buying into it. It's the first time in a long time that Quebec has had a "Conservative" alternative - because that's what the ADQ represents. So with Charest in a minority, the ADQ will cause him to take some action on shrinking government.

[jbg]

It's the first time in a long time that Quebec has had a "Conservative" alternative - because that's what the ADQ represents. So with Charest in a minority, the ADQ will cause him to take some action on shrinking government.

The problem is that statism/corporatism (now called, for modern consumption, socialism) is as ingrained to the French people in both France and Quebec as applie pie is to Americans. Nothing will turn that laid-back culture into a group of hard-working capitalist individualists.

[August1991]

Everybody knows that Quebec needs to downsize it's public service which is almost double the size of other provinces....but it's difficult politically to do. At last there is a party - the ADQ - that is actually campaigning on smaller government and getting people "off the couch and into the workforce"....and obviously, Quebeckers are buying into it.

In fact, the last stats I saw showed that civil servants per capita were low in Quebec. (Saskatchewan was high. Such stats are hard to interpret however.)

The ADQ's right wing slant has been mitigated but it exists. This has been the subject of some bewilderment in certain Quebec circles. Too many for too long have been obsessed by the federalist/sovereignist split that any other discussion seems odd. For them, Dumont and the ADQ are like watching a dubbed foreign movie.

But mainly, there is tremendous confusion in PQ ranks about the place of the State and unions. Some argue that an independant Quebec will be "socialist" or left-leaning and the two ideals go together. This is an old debate and I'm surtprised that it has come back.

Incidentally, the most common phrase on the lips of pequistes now is: Je veux un pays! (I want a country!) This phrase comes from Jacques Parizeau. The phrase signals the frustration of many pequistes - it's like retreating to the Alamo or Masada. Unfortunately for them, only about 20% of Quebecers say the phrase.

So, the PQ has entered the world of "cognitive dissonance". Their own beliefs differ from what the outside world tells them is true. They retreat into such arguments as: the 1995 referendum was stolen from us, the PQ needs a charismatic leader and then it will win the referendum, the PQ must wait about five years and then it will win the referendum. It was suggested today that the most enlightening question to ask Quebecers would be: "Do you want Quebec to be a country one day?"

These pequistes do not want a mere change of provincial governments and a new broom to sweep clean and take care of business. They want a country! If Boisclair forms a minority government, it will be as frustrating for them as watching a porno video with eunuchs.

I think (and I/m not alone to think this) the PQ's popular vote in this election will give a fairly good idea of the percentage of Quebecers who would vote yes on a referendum question such as: "Do you want Quebec to be an independant country?" So, many people are going to draw a major conclusion from this election even if Boisclair makes PM. The conclusion? The PQ-étapiste-Claude Morin referendum policy will never make Quebec sovereign.

The problem is that statism/corporatism (now called, for modern consumption, socialism) is as ingrained to the French people in both France and Quebec as applie pie is to Americans. Nothing will turn that laid-back culture into a group of hard-working capitalist individualists.

You have made that argument elsewhere and it's simply false. Both the French and Quebecers are more pragmatic than you imply. Or consider the US - what is more corporatist than the DoD and its various private suppliers? This dwarfs anything in Canada or France in terms of government budgets.

Both Quebec and France share, among other things, powerful public sector unions that represent counterweights to government power. In addition, both have a tradition of public demonstrations when people are not happy. IMV, these make a society more democratic, not less.

[jbg]

In addition, both have a tradition of public demonstrations when people are not happy. IMV, these make a society more democratic, not less.

As was the French Revolution. Vive le guillotine!!!

On a serious note, though, in France (not sure about Quebec) the government is a shareholder (and quite an active one) in many corporations. Not so in the US.

[August1991]

The mixed results will make a spring election more likely IMHO.

It means that the time is right for a Federalist option in Quebec.

Quebeckers still haven't embraced Dion or Harper but they are both in play to win that Feeralist vote. The Conservatives could pick up 10 to 15 seats in Quebec. Add that to another 15 to 20 seats in the rest of Canada and there is your majority.

The next federal election in Quebec will be a three way race, like this Quebec election. And I'd say that the PQ, PLQ and ADQ votes are good proxies for the BQ, PLC and Tory votes.

In general, the Liberals will keep anglo-allo Montreal. The BQ and the Conservatives will divy up the rest.

But then, Harper is not Dumont. And Dumont's vote is far from being entirely right-wing ideological. IOW, I don't think Harper can capture the nationalist vote the same way that Mulroney did.

OTOH, the nationalist vote is going to be different in Quebec after this election tomorrow. IOW, I don't know how the BQ's support will do. There will still be many who simply want to protect Quebec's interests at the federal level, who are Left or "progressive" and will find Harper unpalatable. And all those purs et durs PQ voters will continue, I guess, to vote Bloc. (They could do as they did in Trudeau times and just stay home.)

----

Let me go out on a few limbs and make some conjectures.

The "nationalists" are more nationalist than Left/Right ideological. They are also, at the end of the day, pragmatic. If they sense that the ADQ and Dumont and even Harper are a better way to make Quebec "sovereign" (or at least move it that way), then they will hold their nose and vote that way.

So, Harper (and Dumont) will likely benefit from the collapse of the PQ.

Both Harper and Dumont however will have to do a little more than make "nationalist" noises to receive this support. If Harper agreed to limiting the federal power to spend, then he would anchor his credentials.

IMV, the big unknown is where the 30% (or so) PQ voters will do in the long run. It reminds me a bit of Russia after 1991. About 20% - 30% of the population hated the collapse of the Soviet Union and complained bitterly about the change. They had to accept eventually that most Russians preferred the "new Russia". Maybe something similar will happen in Quebec - in a Latin rather than Slavic way.

[Michael Bluth]

The next federal election in Quebec will be a three way race, like this Quebec election. And I'd say that the PQ, PLQ and ADQ votes are good proxies for the BQ, PLC and Tory votes.

So, Harper (and Dumont) will likely benefit from the collapse of the PQ.

Fair enough.

If Harper can pick up a dozen seats in Quebec next election that puts them within 15 seats or so for a majority.

[August1991]

If Harper can pick up a dozen seats in Quebec next election that puts them within 15 seats or so for a majority.

As a very rough guess, Harper and the Tories will get around 20-25 seats in Quebec. (BTW, pudgy anglo Harper is now a character on the Quebec political scene. Dumont used his name, weirdly pronounced, to get votes in this election.)

----

In all of this, keep in mind two points: First, many ordinary Quebecers believe that they are "Canadians" second to being Quebecers. This has not changed. "Canada" will always be an entity of convenience (Canadians should know this about their country). Canada works best when people are not forced to choose between their region and Canada. (The basic lesson of Quebec politics over the past 40 years is that it is wrong to force Quebecers to choose between Canada and Quebec. This is the main secret of Mario Dumont's current success.)

Second, this is an old discussion that has been going on for centuries. Many are new to the discussion - having only participated for a century or even less. It's a civilized discussion and sometimes it leads to major changes. The BNA Act is not written in stone.

[Charles Anthony]

Before the next federal election, for the first time -- for all practical purposes -- Quebeckers will have their own little "Canadian" government. The three-way split will produce a new show to follow and a different taste of politics.

Here is for hoping: Quebeckers will like it and figure they can go at it alone.

[jdobbin]

Here is for hoping: Quebeckers will like it and figure they can go at it alone.

I've seen no indication recently that they wish to do that. Have you?

[Charles Anthony]

I've seen no indication recently that they wish to do that.

Indication of what? Were you alive during the last minority government in Quebec?

Have you?

No.

I do not think you understand that Quebeckers are being thrust into a political environment they have never EVER experienced before. I am hoping that they might like it and may respond to it unexpectedly.

[jdobbin]

Indication of what? Were you alive during the last minority government in Quebec?

No.

I do not think you understand that Quebeckers are being thrust into a political environment they have never EVER experienced before. I am hoping that they might like it and may respond to it unexpectedly.

Were you?

I think you said "go it alone." I've seen no evidence that they are about to go it alone in a majority or a minority. I've seen no evidence that Harper is about to turn over more spending money to the provinces to do such a thing, have you? He increased transfer payments of course. But as he relinquished any taxing authority to Quebec?