The Achilles' Heel of the Federal Liberals

August1991 · December 19, 2006

The federal Liberals are the Party of Power, the Natural Governing Party. For over 100 years, the federal Liberals have dominated in Ottawa. There'd be a time-out for a few years but then they'd be back.

The Liberals attracted the smartest people - people who could win elections and people who could govern. If you didn't follow politics, it was mainstream, acceptable to say you voted Liberal. (It's like me saying that "Wayne Gretzky was a great play maker". Taxi drivers nod their head and I don't have to be embarrassed to expose my utter ignorance of hockey.)

The Liberal modus operandi has been to promise the world for stupid voters and to manage a good feasible world for intelligent voters. Liberals were pragmatic idealists. This has been brazenly apparent for "national unity". The federal Liberals were Canada's party, they kept Quebec in Canada since only the Liberals got votes everywhere.

I think this has changed and I don't know why exactly.

Maybe it's the Internet. Maybe it's too many promises: Trudeau's zap-frozen promise, his seat-referendum promise, Chretien's GST promise or the Kyoto promise. Politicians promise and renege often but the Liberals have gone too far, too long, too often. They've promised too much and they never do anything. They've borrowed too much against their mojo.

Dion's claim to fame is that he's an honest Quebec academic who doesn't cheat, doesn't steal and doesn't lie. He had nothing to do with the sponsorship scandal. No one questions Dion's integrity or motives. He got involved in Canadian politics because he wants to do good for Canada.

Am I wrong if I say that many Canadian voters simply no longer believe the federal Liberal Party any more? The Kinsella-type spin, the Toronto Star slant - it doesn't work. This has nothing to do with Dion. Dion may be a francophone John Turner - an opposition guy - but my point goes beyond that.

The federal Liberal Party is facing an existential crisis. Its schtick doesn't work anymore.

Riverwind · December 19, 2006

Am I wrong if I say that many Canadian voters simply no longer believe the federal Liberal Party any more? The Kinsella-type spin, the Toronto Star slant - it doesn't work. This has nothing to do with Dion. Dion may be a francophone John Turner - an opposition guy - but my point goes beyond that.

The next election is Harper's to lose -> he will get voted out if enough voters decide that they don't like the job he is doing and the Liberals will gain by default. All the Liberals needed to do was elect someone credible - Dion has that credibility. However, Dion will never be able to win based only on his merits - he depends entirely on Harper and crew self destructing. Harper seems to be doing that on the environment file but he still has some time to recover.

geoffrey · December 19, 2006

River,

Do you honestly believe people will make their choice on environment? With all the other issues, environmental is the number one in your opinion?

I think if environment proves to be "the" issue, the media was the winner in this campaign.

Ontario economy is falling rapidly, Quebec's economy has been doing so for longer. Alberta is barely sustaining Canada's minimal growth. If I weren't Albertan, I'd be electing a party that is going to build that economy, slash taxes especially for business and help me get and keep my job. The Liberals had that potential with a couple leaders, but instead they picked the environmental face to the party.

Is that a winning choice? I think the media will decide.

Riverwind · December 19, 2006

Do you honestly believe people will make their choice on environment? With all the other issues, environmental is the number one in your opinion?

Not necessarily. I picked that one because that is the only file where the CPC is really screwing up on right now.

Incidentally, slashing corporate taxes does nothing for companies that are losing money. If people are worried about their jobs the last thing they want is a politician who will slash program spending.

geoffrey · December 19, 2006

If people are worried about their jobs the last thing they want is a politician who will slash program spending.

The theory that you can spend your way out of a reccession has been proven false time and time again. Stimulating private sector growth is the way out.

Mr. Kennedy in the leadership conventioned raised the most important point out of all candidates, out of all politicans from any party. Canada is failure on the international scene in small-business and enterpise development. We have little entreprenuerial endeavours outside of Alberta and BC (provinces with higher than average small businesses).

This is key to my vote. Which party is going to bring us into the 21st century in terms of how business is done, how business is taxed and how trade occurs within our nation (sometimes it's easier to trade North-South than East-West).

blueblood · December 19, 2006

River,
Do you honestly believe people will make their choice on environment? With all the other issues, environmental is the number one in your opinion?

I think if environment proves to be "the" issue, the media was the winner in this campaign.

Ontario economy is falling rapidly, Quebec's economy has been doing so for longer. Alberta is barely sustaining Canada's minimal growth. If I weren't Albertan, I'd be electing a party that is going to build that economy, slash taxes especially for business and help me get and keep my job. The Liberals had that potential with a couple leaders, but instead they picked the environmental face to the party.

Is that a winning choice? I think the media will decide.

Just goes to show how powerful media and media spin is, (MTV anyone). They are at the point of scary, if the media would have spun the clean air act the way Harper wanted it, he might not be in this predicament.

mikedavid00 · December 19, 2006

Am I wrong if I say that many Canadian voters simply no longer believe the federal Liberal Party any more?

I've been thinking the same thing lately until I saw the Dion polls some weeks back that weren't very encouraging.

I also agree that Liberals are idealists, CPC are realists.

I think what's happening now is that people and even the media are starting to sub consoiusly clue into the fact that we pay amougst the highest taxes in the G8, and do not get services anymore.

Example: In the 1970-80's you needed to have 25% downpayment to get a mortgage to be able to buy a home. This was a problem for the working poor (which is a solid chunck of our country). So a remedy was to build 'gearned to income housing' or subsidized housing. Ottawa had TONS of it. They were these 2 story row homes.. pretty spacious and nice to be perfectly honest. Single moms and low income families with children could move in. We looked the gov't for this and it was our safety net to look after our own. In Ottawa and Toronto, immigrants now occupy these houses and the waiting lists are now up to 5 years I think to be able to get in. These are welfare homes that are unsafe now. Ghetto's, not geared to income like I remembered them.

BUT, these days the working poor can now get a mortgage to fit a house and buy one with no money down so essentially anyone can own a home now. You don't need the govt's interfeirence anymore. The gov't will supplement your income with welfare if needed, but you can make it on your own as to where it used to be simply impossible. Interest rates are also lower than it used to be. So leasing or buying a new car is much less expensive considering you can drive for $180 a month and under warranty.

When people DO need to use services, they find out that they are waiting for 19 hours (true story) at the emergency room for a misscarage (happend to ex coworker). Word gets around and people realize that the gov't isn't there for them anymore. Services aren't there for them anymore.

People see no new roads being built, nothing is frowing like it used to, no new inferstruction, and people realize that others are taking advantage of our system and that the gov't is doing nothing about this.

The Liberal idealists 'vision' is just not flying with voters. We don't want to elect a 'vision'. Dion's Kyoto scam is important to him, not to Canadians. CPC is governing on behalf of Canadians for the most part by giving us a bit of tax relief that everyone can relate to.

I don't think the tides have turned because the polls aren't really reflecting that and are quite troubling to be honest. I'll be in Montreal this christmas break and will have a chance to speak to a large immigrant cirlce of voters and see where their head is at. Last year, everyone was anti-Bush, pro Liberal party. We'll see what they say this year. I'm goign to use that very discussion to guage a possible majority.

Who's Doing What? · December 19, 2006

Do you honestly believe people will make their choice on environment? With all the other issues, environmental is the number one in your opinion?

Personally I like the idea of a governing party that is interested in sustainable development. I have never heard a politician even approach the subject before. Unless he does something to change my mind before the election, Dion's interest in the environment would be the exact reason why I would vote for him.

Riverwind · December 19, 2006

Just goes to show how powerful media and media spin is, (MTV anyone). They are at the point of scary, if the media would have spun the clean air act the way Harper wanted it, he might not be in this predicament.

I don't think this was media spin. Harper tried to a bait and switch on the environment by substituting smog for green house gases. The media did their job by pointing that slight of hand out. If people were really more concerned about smog than GHG then they would not have been swayed by the media coverage.

apollo19 · December 19, 2006

I think this has changed and I don't know why exactly.
Dion's claim to fame is that he's an honest Quebec academic who doesn't cheat, doesn't steal and doesn't lie. He had nothing to do with the sponsorship scandal. No one questions Dion's integrity or motives. He got involved in Canadian politics because he wants to do good for Canada.

Am I wrong if I say that many Canadian voters simply no longer believe the federal Liberal Party any more? The Kinsella-type spin, the Toronto Star slant - it doesn't work. This has nothing to do with Dion. Dion may be a francophone John Turner - an opposition guy - but my point goes beyond that.

The federal Liberal Party is facing an existential crisis. Its schtick doesn't work anymore.

I don't think that Canadians are overly cynical about the Liberals anymore, or the Conservatives for that matter. I think the current situation has more to do with the unique political circumstances than not trusting the Liberals. The existence of the BQ and a single Conservative party have split Canadians into sects which cannot agree with one another on fundamental issues -- and no single group will likely be able to control things for a long time to come. I think Liberals losing people's trust has little to do with this. The problem I see with the Liberals today is that in being a big tent party in today's age, nothing ever really gets done when people want things to get done, and now the Conservatives are starting to experience this too.

mikedavid00 · December 19, 2006

Is that a winning choice? I think the media will decide.

That's a classic quote.

The Canadians do need to be told what to think by the media because they are so used to not making descisions for their country or themselves. That's a reason we should be voting voting on propoistions; so Canadians can finally think independantly.

I have to say though, if politicians and CBC say the sky is falling, poeple WILL believe it.

This isn't the US where people easily see through these sorts of things.

And one last thing, as I was studying all of California's propositions, ANYTHING that involved raising taxes in ANY way, shape, or form was voted 'NO'. We're talking raising taxes on ciggerettes to give to healthcare - NO. And this is the most Liberal state in the country! you got to love it!

Why? Becuase they see it for what it is. They have control over their gov't and know that if they get all the contorol they gouge companies, corperations, and tax payers. Thus, not one single bill regarding raising ANY kind of tax was passed.

Canadians however are brainwashed and dictated to by the media and elites. They repeat what their elders to them to say. I hear it here on this board daily. They aren't used to decing what's good for us, they just 'elect poticians to think for them'. As some might argue. This is ideoligy, not reality. Only we can think for ourselves. That is fact.

If a politician and CBC come forth and dicate that 'the sky is falling', people may actually get worried and seriously might feel that hey have to do something about the environment or the sky will fall. I've seen it here on this very board.

The Americans would say: 'Yup. This is a way to get a cash grab from Alberta' - NO on the ballad.

mikedavid00 · December 19, 2006

This is key to my vote. Which party is going to bring us into the 21st century in terms of how business is done, how business is taxed and how trade occurs within our nation (sometimes it's easier to trade North-South than East-West).

I agree 100%. I also heavily addressed this my 'fixing Canada' thread.

The country relies on small business. Not large corporations. We are not agressive at all with small business financing. I've already looked into a business loan once. The gov't program is basiclaly not there for you to help get a small business loan. This is where the Americans have a great advantage over us. Also, franchises are a big porblem IMO. Ask anyone from almost any country that comes here they will say that every store in the mall is the same. It's the same thing over and over. We have instatutionalized, US based franchises that have swalled Canada and do nohting for our country. The Banks will approve you more for these loans instead of starting your own business.

We heavly lack wholesale. If you would like to sell products, it's very tough finding wholesale here in Canada as compared to the US where any home based business can sell products for CHEAPER than Best Buy. That is impossible here in Canada. Before half of the car audio businesses got shut out of business from Best Buy/Future Shop, one store owner told me that they were selling each car audio unit $20 cheaper than what he could even get them for from the wholesaler. So this shows you the trouble that Mulrouny created. And bye bye to all the white collar jobs as low income, working poor has been put in their place.

Charles Anthony · December 19, 2006

In post-Trudeamaniacal Canada, it makes less and less sense to look to the government to solve an individual's problems. Furthermore, nobody can take the future for granted anymore. We are seeing a cummulative effect.

I think this has changed and I don't know why exactly.

My best guess is that less and less people in Canada can afford to live on promises. More and more people, whether they are stupid or intelligent, must depend on their own hard work. People are no longer hired nor fired based on their level of intelligence.

jdobbin · December 19, 2006

Am I wrong if I say that many Canadian voters simply no longer believe the federal Liberal Party any more? The Kinsella-type spin, the Toronto Star slant - it doesn't work. This has nothing to do with Dion. Dion may be a francophone John Turner - an opposition guy - but my point goes beyond that.
The federal Liberal Party is facing an existential crisis. Its schtick doesn't work anymore.

The Liberal party has been written off so many times before. There is one reason it keeps coming back and that is because Canadians are centrists at heart and that is where the Liberals straddle.

If Harper can occupy that centrist position, he stands a good chance of winning again. However, he hasn't been able to completely pull ahead and therefore, a minority government is still what lies in the future unless something dramatic changes.

Remiel · December 19, 2006

If Harper were to actually by some misfortune win a majority government, probably the most stupid thing he could possibly do is shift further away from the centre than he is (governing from) now. That would probably guarantee he loses in the election after next. Strategically, it would make more sense for him to try and keep a majority for at least two terms if we wants to actually meet any of his goals. Of course, he would probably bow down to his natural instincts and let his true colours show rather than playing it smart, Conservatively in the colours of Canadians.

Figleaf · December 19, 2006

Am I wrong if I say that many Canadian voters simply no longer believe the federal Liberal Party any more?

If you mean believe them substantially less than they believe other politicians, then yes, you're wrong.

The federal Liberal Party is facing an existential crisis. Its schtick doesn't work anymore.

Above, you described it's schtick as 'pragmatic idealism'. I think there's probably plenty of legs left in the appeal of pragmatic idealism for Canadian voters.

Figleaf · December 19, 2006

Am I wrong if I say that many Canadian voters simply no longer believe the federal Liberal Party any more? The Kinsella-type spin, the Toronto Star slant - it doesn't work. This has nothing to do with Dion. Dion may be a francophone John Turner - an opposition guy - but my point goes beyond that.
The next election is Harper's to lose -> he will get voted out if enough voters decide that they don't like the job he is doing and the Liberals will gain by default. All the Liberals needed to do was elect someone credible - Dion has that credibility. However, Dion will never be able to win based only on his merits - he depends entirely on Harper and crew self destructing. Harper seems to be doing that on the environment file but he still has some time to recover.

You overlook, I think, the importance of the disaster that is looming for the NDP. Dion will be able to draw in a lot of uncommitted progressives from the edges of the New Democrat/Big-Labour Party.

mikedavid00 · December 19, 2006

More and more people, whether they are stupid or intelligent, must depend on their own hard work. People are no longer hired nor fired based on their level of intelligence.

I completely agree. We've replaced white collar, private sector jobs with working-poor service jobs. People are on their own survival mode now and realize the gov't isn't helping, but rather hindering their lives.

Figleaf · December 19, 2006

The theory that you can spend your way out of a reccession has been proven false time and time again.

Actually, it has been proven to work quite well, as long as you remember to recover the spending after the recession. That part has proven difficult for politicians.

mikedavid00 · December 19, 2006

The theory that you can spend your way out of a reccession has been proven false time and time again.

Actually, it has been proven to work quite well, as long as you remember to recover the spending after the recession. That part has proven difficult for politicians.

Ask Bob Rae if it works very well.

i dont think we've had a real recession in a long time. i'm talking the type of recession where every business is hurting badly, everyone losing their homes, everyone is lined up looking for a job. Maybe we've learned from our mistakes in the past.

By 'we' I mean the US.

kimmy · December 19, 2006

You overlook, I think, the importance of the disaster that is looming for the NDP. Dion will be able to draw in a lot of uncommitted progressives from the edges of the New Democrat/Big-Labour Party.

Is there a disaster looming for the NDP? I mean, arguably their entire recent history could be considered various shades of disaster, but I'm unaware of any apocalyptic event on the horizon that'll cause them to do significantly worse than usual.

It seems as though somewhere around 5% of the popular support, according to polls, shifted from the NDP to the Liberals in the wake of Dion's victory. It seems to me that in recent elections, we've also seen 5% of popular support shift fron the NDP to the Liberals when it comes time to cast ballots.

It might just be that there are about 5% of voters who ideologically might prefer the NDP, but vote Liberal as a matter of pragmatism. I suppose that more NDP voters might go Liberal this time, as Dion probably has more lefty appeal than Martin or Chretien did, but generally speaking I'm not sure it'll be a huge number, and I don't expect it's a looming disaster. There seems to be a core of "die-hard" NDP support.

-k

jdobbin · December 19, 2006

It might just be that there are about 5% of voters who ideologically might prefer the NDP, but vote Liberal as a matter of pragmatism. I suppose that more NDP voters might go Liberal this time, as Dion probably has more lefty appeal than Martin or Chretien did, but generally speaking I'm not sure it'll be a huge number, and I don't expect it's a looming disaster. There seems to be a core of "die-hard" NDP support.

There is a hard core support for NDP out there for sure. What there isn't a lot of love for is Layton.

fellowtraveller · December 20, 2006

The 'perception hurdle' that the Libs will face in the next election will be a unique challenge for them. None of us - outside Alberta- are used to politicians that actually state what they intend, then do what they said they would do after the election. Harpers greatest achievement is yet to be seen, and he will fight an election on his record of promises that have been fulfilled. He'll also lambaste Dion for his record in government, which is not good.

The Libs are seen as do-nothing, which I will freely admit is the best option in some circumstances. But Chretien was proud of doing nothing, it was his style and he often boasted about it. Martin continued that tradition- promise everything, deliver very little. Harper has promised little, and is delivering all of it plus more.

Like it or not, Klein was elected at least twice in Alberta because he did what he said. We'll see if Harper is emulating Klein in the hopes that people will recognize it, and can capitalize on it with a majority..

Ricki Bobbi · December 20, 2006

Is there a disaster looming for the NDP? I mean, arguably their entire recent history could be considered various shades of disaster, but I'm unaware of any apocalyptic event on the horizon that'll cause them to do significantly worse than usual.
It seems as though somewhere around 5% of the popular support, according to polls, shifted from the NDP to the Liberals in the wake of Dion's victory. It seems to me that in recent elections, we've also seen 5% of popular support shift fron the NDP to the Liberals when it comes time to cast ballots.

It might just be that there are about 5% of voters who ideologically might prefer the NDP, but vote Liberal as a matter of pragmatism. I suppose that more NDP voters might go Liberal this time, as Dion probably has more lefty appeal than Martin or Chretien did, but generally speaking I'm not sure it'll be a huge number, and I don't expect it's a looming disaster. There seems to be a core of "die-hard" NDP support.

-k

Good analysis. That's the reason why I think the Conservatives and Dippers might come up with a deal they can both live with on the environment. If they could really agree to something significant they would be able to seriously squeeze the Liberals.

If all that 5% stayed with the NDP, rather than moving to the Liberals like last time, you could very well see them form official opposition with a much stronger Conservative minority.

OMG what a shock that would be to the Natural Governing Party! :lol:

jdobbin · December 20, 2006

The 'perception hurdle' that the Libs will face in the next election will be a unique challenge for them. None of us - outside Alberta- are used to politicians that actually state what they intend, then do what they said they would do after the election. Harpers greatest achievement is yet to be seen, and he will fight an election on his record of promises that have been fulfilled. He'll also lambaste Dion for his record in government, which is not good.

Harper keeps his promises? What about the healthcare wait times? That was one of the top five promises he made. What about the income trust promises in the election?