Canadian Political Polls

[Vancouver King]

So people on the left don't drink Tim Hortons?

They do. They just turn up their noses at people who actually admit to being Tim Horton's customers.

OK, that's funny. EVERYONE I know goes to Tim Horton's. I have never heard of it being the right's territory exclusively or any political affiliation or association. What do you smoke to make up stuff like that?

You don't know many people from Vancouver then as there is not a single Tim Horton's within the city limits -save coffee kiosks in gas stations. Shameful, as Timmy offers a fine chicken salad sandwich, soup of the day and medium coffee for $7.

You must redouble your efforts not to judge others based on your own shortcomings - looking down on the Tim Hortons crowd has never entered my mind, on the contrary, they will decide the coming election in ridings that ring greater Toronto and the suburbs of the GVRD.

[sharkman]

What the hell is it with Vancouver? No Tim Hortons? That's completely ridiculous!

[Michael Bluth]

You must redouble your efforts not to judge others based on your own shortcomings - looking down on the Tim Hortons crowd has never entered my mind, on the contrary, they will decide the coming election in ridings that ring greater Toronto and the suburbs of the GRVD.

Any other instructions on living for the misguided your majesty?

[Fortunata]

You don't know many people from Vancouver then as there is not a single Tim Horton's within the city limits

No, I don't live in Vancouver and, if you're right, not everyone I know goes to Tims. I am going to rephrase that, every one of my coworkers and most of my friends in the city in which I live, goes to Tim Hortons. Now that I know that about Vancouver I'm going to have TH withdrawal when I go there.

[Vancouver King]

Any other instructions on living for the misguided your majesty?

No, but be warned, your banishment from the kingdom is under active review.

[guyser]

Are these all kiosks?

http://web.sa.mapquest.com/timhortons/adva...s=5km&x=42&y=22

[Vancouver King]

Are these all kiosks?

http://web.sa.mapquest.com/timhortons/adva...s=5km&x=42&y=22

With the exception of cafeterias in a hospital and on campus, yes, I believe the rest are coffee stands.

[normanchateau]

You don't know many people from Vancouver then as there is not a single Tim Horton's within the city limits

No, I don't live in Vancouver and, if you're right, not everyone I know goes to Tims. I am going to rephrase that, every one of my coworkers and most of my friends in the city in which I live, goes to Tim Hortons. Now that I know that about Vancouver I'm going to have TH withdrawal when I go there.

I hesitate to post this as it will reinforce Canadian Blue's accurate observation that this thread has degenerated.

But I'll post it anyway.

Good news Fortunata. There is a small mall at the corner of Dunbar and 18th Avenue in Vancouver. Until recently, the main occupant of the mall was a provincial government liquor store. As of a month ago, there is an additional occupant...Tim Hortons.

[gc1765]

You don't know many people from Vancouver then as there is not a single Tim Horton's within the city limits -save coffee kiosks in gas stations. Shameful, as Timmy offers a fine chicken salad sandwich, soup of the day and medium coffee for $7.

There are plenty of tim hortons in Vancouver! What are you talking about?

[normanchateau]

SES Research Poll Results released May 8, 2007

Federal voting intentions (committed voters only)

Canada

CPC 32

Liberal 33

NDP 17

BQ 9

Green 10

Ontario

CPC 33

Liberal 37

NDP 19

Green 12

Quebec

CPC 17

Liberal 27

NDP 13

BQ 35

Green 9

[LastViking]

Dion is in the ballpark for a minority government. The Tory support is still too concentrated in seats they won.

When the Conservatives were at 38% they weren't in the ball park for a majority but these results mean the Liberals are in the ball park for a minority?

There is no credibility to your analysis. If you apply more favourable analysis to Liberal positive results than you do to Conservative positive results.

Correct: It appears that there was no recent prospect of a Liberal Minority; at least not since the Leadership Convention bounce last Autumn ... see TrendLines today.

[jdobbin]

Correct: It appears that there was no recent prospect of a Liberal Minority; at least not since the Leadership Convention bounce last Autumn ... see TrendLines today.

Trendlines predicts this:

May 8th 2007 Update: While April results revealed renewed Liberal sentiment, directly at the cost of the Conservatives, early May opinion polling sees a resumption of the long term trends indicating:

a) an utter collapse of the BQ & NDP failing evasive measures;

continued softening of Liberal sentiment since the Leadership Convention bounce;

c) and the likelihood of a landslide victory for the Conservatives subsequent to either the Spring 2008 or 2009 Budgets or ultimate expiry of the current mandate.

This analysis seems more far fetched than anything else I've seen.

[jdobbin]

SES Research Poll Results released May 8, 2007

Federal voting intentions (committed voters only)

Canada

CPC 32

Liberal 33

NDP 17

BQ 9

Green 10

This is now the second poll in as many weeks that puts the Liberals ahead.

http://www.edmontonsun.com/Comment/2007/05...162507-sun.html

An exclusive SES Research poll for Sun Media shows popular backing of the ruling Conservatives withering to around its lowest level since the minority Harper government came to office more than 15 months ago.

Dead heat

As a result, the SES-Sun survey indicates that if an election were held today, the Conservatives and Liberals would be in a virtual dead heat in the ballot count, each with the support of about 33% of committed voters.

That is roughly a four-point drop for Harper's party just in the past month.

The poll shows the Conservatives losing ground in Ontario, the West, and particularly in Quebec where public opinion has tanked by a whopping 11 points to 17% from 28% last month, almost all of it moving to the Liberals.

Support for the New Democrats has remained relatively stable at 17%, while the only winner appears to have been Elizabeth May and her Green Party, almost doubling their national popularity to 10%.

Bottom line is an election anytime soon could produce either a Conservative or Liberal government, and almost certainly a minority.

[normanchateau]

An exclusive SES Research poll for Sun Media shows popular backing of the ruling Conservatives withering to around its lowest level since the minority Harper government came to office more than 15 months ago.

Dead heat

As a result, the SES-Sun survey indicates that if an election were held today, the Conservatives and Liberals would be in a virtual dead heat in the ballot count, each with the support of about 33% of committed voters.

That is roughly a four-point drop for Harper's party just in the past month.

Bottom line is an election anytime soon could produce either a Conservative or Liberal government, and almost certainly a minority.

If you compare this SES poll with the one held exactly one month ago, you'll see that the Conservatives dropped by 4% and the Greens rose by 4%. Maybe May's tendency to mix politics with religion is getting at least some of the CPC vote to move in her direction. She's more up front about it than the two-faced Harper.

[Vancouver King]

An exclusive SES Research poll for Sun Media shows popular backing of the ruling Conservatives withering to around its lowest level since the minority Harper government came to office more than 15 months ago.

Dead heat

As a result, the SES-Sun survey indicates that if an election were held today, the Conservatives and Liberals would be in a virtual dead heat in the ballot count, each with the support of about 33% of committed voters.

That is roughly a four-point drop for Harper's party just in the past month.

Bottom line is an election anytime soon could produce either a Conservative or Liberal government, and almost certainly a minority.

If you compare this SES poll with the one held exactly one month ago, you'll see that the Conservatives dropped by 4% and the Greens rose by 4%. Maybe May's tendency to mix politics with religion is getting at least some of the CPC vote to move in her direction. She's more up front about it than the two-faced Harper.

SES's newest Quebec numbers are devastating for Harper. Catering to La Belle province at the expense of the other nine fiefdoms has produced virtually no gains for his party. At 17% - down a third from the last election - he can expect losses off the 10 seat rump earned in 2006.

Conservatives took a calculated risk that showering Quebec with money and attention was necessary as no national majority was possible without increased seats there. Their strategy has failed and the province - according to these latest numbers - has become a political wasteland for Tories.

[jdobbin]

If you compare this SES poll with the one held exactly one month ago, you'll see that the Conservatives dropped by 4% and the Greens rose by 4%. Maybe May's tendency to mix politics with religion is getting at least some of the CPC vote to move in her direction. She's more up front about it than the two-faced Harper.

With all the heat May has received, she has held her numbers quite strongly.

[jdobbin]

SES's newest Quebec numbers are devastating for Harper. Catering to La Belle province at the expense of the other nine fiefdoms has produced virtually no gains for his party. At 17% - down a third from the last election - he can expect losses off the 10 seat rump earned in 2006.

Conservatives took a calculated risk that showering Quebec with money and attention was necessary as no national majority was possible without increased seats there. Their strategy has failed and the province - according to these latest numbers - has become a political wasteland for Tories.

The boost expected from being aligned to the ADQ hasn't panned out. Maybe we are seeing a Trudeau boost for the Liberals. <heh>

[jdobbin]

Latest poll from CP.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/capress/tories_poll

The two issues have dominated parliamentary debate for the past month, during which the Tories' lead in public opinion has evaporated. A Decima poll, provided exclusively to The Canadian Press, indicates that a majority believe it's likely that detainees captured by Canadian soldiers in Afghanistan wind up being tortured by Afghan authorities.

Only 33 per cent those polled were satisfied with the government's handling of the issue while 42 per cent were dissatisfied.

The Tory government fared somewhat better with its new plan for reducing greenhouse gas emissions; nevertheless, 47 per cent were dissatisfied with the plan while 41 per cent were satisfied.

Not very good numbers on either issue for the Tories.

[normanchateau]

If you compare this SES poll with the one held exactly one month ago, you'll see that the Conservatives dropped by 4% and the Greens rose by 4%. Maybe May's tendency to mix politics with religion is getting at least some of the CPC vote to move in her direction. She's more up front about it than the two-faced Harper.

With all the heat May has received, she has held her numbers quite strongly.

The heats mainly come from CPC supporters I suspect, but it's not resulted in any movement from the Green camp to the CPC camp.

[jdobbin]

The heats mainly come from CPC supporters I suspect, but it's not resulted in any movement from the Green camp to the CPC camp.

It remains to be seen whether May can translate widespread support into some seat wins. It is a tough situation to be in.

At the moment, the Sun newspaper chain basically confirms what I said several days ago: the Liberals are in ballpark territory when it comes to a minority.

[BC_chick]

I like this part, it made me laugh:

Suzuki and Gore have said the plan will do little to combat global warming while Baird insists it's a major step forward. Asked to choose whose view is more credible, 59 per cent chose Suzuki over Baird (25 per cent) and 44 per cent chose Gore over Baird (34 per cent).

[jdobbin]

I like this part, it made me laugh:

Suzuki and Gore have said the plan will do little to combat global warming while Baird insists it's a major step forward. Asked to choose whose view is more credible, 59 per cent chose Suzuki over Baird (25 per cent) and 44 per cent chose Gore over Baird (34 per cent).

I guess it shows that Baird isn't about to win a popularity contest with either man.

[Vancouver King]

If you compare this SES poll with the one held exactly one month ago, you'll see that the Conservatives dropped by 4% and the Greens rose by 4%. Maybe May's tendency to mix politics with religion is getting at least some of the CPC vote to move in her direction. She's more up front about it than the two-faced Harper.

With all the heat May has received, she has held her numbers quite strongly.

It's hard to believe anyone comfortable under the Tory tent could defect directly to the Greens. Surely the latest set of numbers reflect the Greens collecting from all parties while the Conservatives bleed to all other parties.

Then again, there is a well documented phenomenon here in BC of many federal Tories voting for the provincial NDP. As one raised on a horizontal political spectrum, I shake my head at such ideological leaps.

[geoffrey]

I guess it shows that Biard isn't about to win a popularity contest with either man.

Unfortunately, Dion was lower than Harper and Layton in being crediable on the environment in a poll a few weeks back. That's pretty damned sad. Even I could be more credible speaking on climate change than Harper.

The Conservatives might not be the best on the environment in policy, but we know the Liberals are failures in results.

[gc1765]

The Conservatives might not be the best on the environment in policy, but we know the Liberals are failures in results.

You are probably right, but if I can play devil's advocate...what should the Liberals have done to cut greenhouse gas emissions? Shut down the oil industry? Implement a carbon tax?