Canadian Political Polls

[Michael Bluth]

If that was the case, his polling numbers would be higher.

How high should his polling numbers be?

[blueblood]

The longer Harper has in office, the better it is for him, people are getting more and more comfortable with him. he knows what he's doing.

If that was the case, his polling numbers would be higher.

The liberals are also a mainstream big time party. They're (liberals) going to attract lots themselves. He did poll 40% at one time. From what I'm seeing the next election will go to the one who pulls off the best campaign.

[jdobbin]

The liberals are also a mainstream big time party. They're (liberals) going to attract lots themselves. He did poll 40% at one time. From what I'm seeing the next election will go to the one who pulls off the best campaign.

That might be. But Conservative majorities, according to pollsters, need to be solidly over 40%. At the moment, Harper would probably win a minority.

You say that Harper has a master plan and that the longer he stays in, the higher his support is. It is fairly consistent with the election results right now. He might be hoping that Dion will sink in the polls but the only party showing major decline is the BQ.

[Michael Bluth]

From what I'm seeing the next election will go to the one who pulls off the best campaign.

That's pretty much a given, and the way it should be. The 2004 campaign is the only Federal Election in recent memory where the party that won didn't arguably run the best campaign.

1984 - turned on the debates. The key to running a modern campaign.

1993 - the Red book was a master stroke.

2000 - Stock Day? Not such a well run campaign.

The Conservatives definitely won in 2006 because of their campaign.

Sure the RCMP investigation helped push them over the top, but if they had run as weak a campaign as the Liberals did they definitely would have lost.

I think Harper fairly believes he can beat Dion in a campaign, that's why a spring election is still possible.

[blueblood]

The liberals are also a mainstream big time party. They're (liberals) going to attract lots themselves. He did poll 40% at one time. From what I'm seeing the next election will go to the one who pulls off the best campaign.

That might be. But Conservative majorities, according to pollsters, need to be solidly over 40%. At the moment, Harper would probably win a minority.

You say that Harper has a master plan and that the longer he stays in, the higher his support is. It is fairly consistent with the election results right now. He might be hoping that Dion will sink in the polls but the only party showing major decline is the BQ.

Patience, patience, it's only been a short time. A decline in the BQ is good, it opens it up to a two horse race and all depends on the campaign.

[Michael Bluth]

That might be. But Conservative majorities, according to pollsters, need to be solidly over 40%. At the moment, Harper would probably win a minority.

Conservative majorities?

I have never seen a major pollster make the definition between a Liberal or a Conservative majority when talking about the level of support needed to win a majority.

Why add this misleading part about Conservative majorities?

Was is on order from your Liberal handlers?

[jdobbin]

Patience, patience, it's only been a short time. A decline in the BQ is good, it opens it up to a two horse race and all depends on the campaign.

I wouldn't say two horse in Quebec. The BQ are still in the lead. More like a three way race.

http://ca.today.reuters.com/news/newsArtic...CS-POLL-COL.XML

Back in March, the polls stood closer to 40% for the Tories. The pollsters said that this was the bare minimum needed for a majority.

put the Conservatives at around 40 percent -- the minimum level of support a party needs to stand a real chance of winning a majority of the 308 seats in the House of Commons. Harper now controls 125 seats.

The Liberals have won with less than 40% in the last 25 years. The Tories have not. A lot of their support is still concentrated in seats they already won.

[geoffrey]

Dobbin is right, with all your support concentrated in the lesser represented West, you need a higher popular support to carry a majority. Interestingly, many polls show CPC support in Alberta down, while up or steady in Canada overall. I think this translates into seat gains for the Conservatives.

Either way, Conservatives definitely need a higher popular support than the Liberals to acheive the same number of seats purely on support distribution.

[Michael Bluth]

Dobbin is right, with all your support concentrated in the lesser represented West, you need a higher popular support to carry a majority. Interestingly, many polls show CPC support in Alberta down, while up or steady in Canada overall. I think this translates into seat gains for the Conservatives.

Either way, Conservatives definitely need a higher popular support than the Liberals to acheive the same number of seats purely on support distribution.

What about the growth of Conservative support in Quebec and Ontario?

[sharkman]

Dobbin is right, with all your support concentrated in the lesser represented West, you need a higher popular support to carry a majority. Interestingly, many polls show CPC support in Alberta down, while up or steady in Canada overall. I think this translates into seat gains for the Conservatives.

Either way, Conservatives definitely need a higher popular support than the Liberals to acheive the same number of seats purely on support distribution.

This doesn't take into account the dynamic of vote splitting. The Libs are obviously worried about it.

[BC_chick]

Interestingly, many polls show CPC support in Alberta down, while up or steady in Canada overall.

I imagine it was the Quebec-loving budget which brought back memories of days-gone-by when they believed things would be different with Harper.

But it's okay, I don't think the lost-support will translate to less votes in the next campaign. I believe it's safe to say that Albertans aren't swing-voters who would spoil their ballot or abstain as a result of becoming disillusioned with both parties.

After all, that's what happens when your country becomes pretty much a bipartisan system - you end up voting against a party as much as you do for a party. The "lesser" of the two evils as they say.

[Michael Bluth]

Interestingly, many polls show CPC support in Alberta down, while up or steady in Canada overall. I think this translates into seat gains for the Conservatives.

What level is Conservative support "down" to in Alberta?

55%?

They were consistenly hitting 65% for quite a while. Which is the share of the vote they got in the last election.

[ScottSA]

Interestingly, many polls show CPC support in Alberta down, while up or steady in Canada overall. I think this translates into seat gains for the Conservatives.

What level is Conservative support "down" to in Alberta?

55%?

It's in freefall. Just wait till it hits 51%.

[geoffrey]

My point is actually that lower support in Alberta, and the same overall support, translates into more seats.

[Michael Bluth]

My point is actually that lower support in Alberta, and the same overall support, translates into more seats.

Yup. Got it. Any other clarifications you want to make?

My point that their level of support hasn't dropped that much. So the effects, spread out Nationally, won't translate into much, if any, change in the number of seats they win.

[geoffrey]

I imagine it was the Quebec-loving budget which brought back memories of days-gone-by when they believed things would be different with Harper.

Well, that is what it was for me.

But it's okay, I don't think the lost-support will translate to less votes in the next campaign. I believe it's safe to say that Albertans aren't swing-voters who would spoil their ballot or abstain as a result of becoming disillusioned with both parties.

I don't know, I think alot might just not show up, is there anything worth voting for in Ottawa... maybe against, but nothing to vote for. I am likely to spoil my ballot for that reason.

After all, that's what happens when your country becomes pretty much a bipartisan system - you end up voting against a party as much as you do for a party. The "lesser" of the two evils as they say.

Yup, I'd chime in with some disagree with whether or not that is a bad thing, but that's for another thread, another time. For now, I've got to say Harper's term as minority PM has shown me enough to really believe Canada is unworkable as a whole.

[jdobbin]

Tories still short of majority in latest poll from Ipsos-Reid:

http://www.canada.com/topics/news/politics...6094cb3&k=57631

A new national poll says Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s Conservatives remain in minority government territory, pouring more cold water on once-hot spring election speculation.

The poll, conducted exclusively for CanWest News Service and Global National, says the Conservatives retain a solid 10-point lead nationally over the rival Liberals but continue to fall short of the numbers needed to form a majority government.

The survey said support for the Tories was up three points to 39 per cent, while support for the Liberals dropped three points to 29 per cent.

The NDP climbed two points to 16 per cent, the Bloc Quebecois edged up to nine per cent from eight and the Green party slipped to seven per cent from eight.

Pollster Darrell Bricker said the snapshot of public opinion shows the mood of the fractured electorate has changed little towards any of the parties since the Conservatives won minority power 15 months ago.

Bricker, president of Ipsos-Reid, said the Conservatives need to score support levels of better than 39 per cent for a sustained period before they can expect to win a majority. “The typical normal for them is around the mid-thirties so they’re trying to establish a new normal that’s higher than 39. It hasn’t happened.”

Quebec support for the Tories remains up. They are also up in Ontario although that support keeps going back and forth. Last poll had the Liberals ahead.

[Michael Bluth]

Tories still short of majority in latest poll from Ipsos-Reid:

Quebec support for the Tories remains up. They are also up in Ontario although that support keeps going back and forth. Last poll had the Liberals ahead.

Interesting. When the Conservatives support is down jdobbin points to that. When it's up in Ontario, he paints it as "going back and forth".

My gut tells me that Harper is letting no Spring election become conventional wisdom while steal keeping the option very much open.

39% Nationally and the high levels of support in Quebec and Ontario makes me think this poll is more pouring gas on the fire of a spring election than anything else.

[blueblood]

Tories still short of majority in latest poll from Ipsos-Reid:

http://www.canada.com/topics/news/politics...6094cb3&k=57631

A new national poll says Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s Conservatives remain in minority government territory, pouring more cold water on once-hot spring election speculation.

The poll, conducted exclusively for CanWest News Service and Global National, says the Conservatives retain a solid 10-point lead nationally over the rival Liberals but continue to fall short of the numbers needed to form a majority government.

The survey said support for the Tories was up three points to 39 per cent, while support for the Liberals dropped three points to 29 per cent.

The NDP climbed two points to 16 per cent, the Bloc Quebecois edged up to nine per cent from eight and the Green party slipped to seven per cent from eight.

Pollster Darrell Bricker said the snapshot of public opinion shows the mood of the fractured electorate has changed little towards any of the parties since the Conservatives won minority power 15 months ago.

Bricker, president of Ipsos-Reid, said the Conservatives need to score support levels of better than 39 per cent for a sustained period before they can expect to win a majority. “The typical normal for them is around the mid-thirties so they’re trying to establish a new normal that’s higher than 39. It hasn’t happened.”

Quebec support for the Tories remains up. They are also up in Ontario although that support keeps going back and forth. Last poll had the Liberals ahead.

Would you call an election with the polls jumping around like that? Up down up down...

This is starting to be a waste of money, good grief there are polls coming out every day or two now. people must be getting agitated being contacted what seems like on a regular basis concerning politics. Maybe they should wait a little bit and find out.

[jdobbin]

Would you call an election with the polls jumping around like that? Up down up down...

This is starting to be a waste of money, good grief there are polls coming out every day or two now. people must be getting agitated being contacted what seems like on a regular basis concerning politics. Maybe they should wait a little bit and find out.

Considering that on Wednesday the previous poll had both parties within the a number of points from one another, it is hard to see who would end up on top.

I still feel the Tories are in minority status if an election was called today. The poll from Decima in Quebec earlier in the week had the Liberals ahead of the Tories. Latest poll a few days later has them down.

Who can get a peg on things when polls have revealed that a majority of people of switched choices in the last months?

[Michael Bluth]

Would you call an election with the polls jumping around like that? Up down up down...

This is starting to be a waste of money, good grief there are polls coming out every day or two now. people must be getting agitated being contacted what seems like on a regular basis concerning politics. Maybe they should wait a little bit and find out.

I think I would call an election.

Waste of money? Well it's private money. People are free to spend their money on polls if they want.

Don't think people are being contacted on a regular basis for polls. About 25 Million eligible voters. Sample sizes of 500.

What are the odds of somebody being contacted more than once for a poll?

If they don't want to answer just say no.

[betsy]

Well guess what!

Journalist Gloria Galloway apparently had a buzz with pollsters and she said that it's bad for the Liberals and very good for the Conservatives. This was at Mike Duffy today. They didn't name the pollsters....but they're talking Conservatives at 39% and Liberals at 29%.

It's really volatile.

Could this be the result of the May-Dion affair?

Or irate citizens fed up with pettiness from the Liberals over their continued whining about Harper's stylist?

Really, when Harper was looking so "sloppy"....people were making a big deal out of it. Now that he's trying to improve his image...the Liberals are complaining. I don't know about you, but I want my PM to look sharp! After all, he is the head of and representing my country.

[jdobbin]

Could this be the result of the May-Dion affair?

Or irate citizens fed up with pettiness from the Liberals over their continued whining about Harper's stylist?

Really, when Harper was looking so "sloppy"....people were making a big deal out of it. Now that he's trying to improve his image...the Liberals are complaining. I don't know about you, but I want my PM to look sharp! After all, he is the head of and representing my country.

You want him to use taxpayers money to have someone comb his hair? One thing is certain, you would be singing a different tune if Paul Martin had someone to comb his hair.

Given that one poll already came out after the Dion May event and had the Liberals rise and this poll at the end of the week has them down, who can say what the heck is causing things to swing back and forth.

[Michael Bluth]

You want him to use taxpayers money to have someone comb his hair? One thing is certain, you would be singing a different tune if Paul Martin had someone to comb his hair.

Given that one poll already came out after the Dion May event and had the Liberals rise and this poll a the end of the week has them down, who can say what the heck is causing things to swing back and forth.

Betsy don't listen to jdobbin.

When it's a good poll for the Conservatives the polls are swinging and "who can say"?

But when they are bad they serve as proof that the Liberals will be returned to their rightful position. He's a typical, blowhard diehard Liberal supporter.

[jdobbin]

What Ipsos said about the recent poll.

Bricker said political watchers are all anxious to see whether the Conservative numbers in Quebec are real.

If they hold up, the prospect of a majority government becomes more real in an election, especially if the Conservatives did at least as well as the Liberals in Ontario, he said.

For now, though, it makes no sense for Harper to have an election because he almost certainly would not win a majority.

Bricker said it’s time Canadians took Harper at his word that he does not want an election.

Some supporters here though are chomping at the bit to go.